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Investors are extremely wary of G3 monetary policies that have created a surreal world of negative interest rates whose long-term effects cannot yet be measured. Additionally, The USA is marking time pending the outcome of the election. Whereas recent fund flows have favoured the Euro, other events do not.
January was a traumatic and emotional month – more characteristic of a year-end market than a fresh start to a new year. Amid some astounding intra-month moves, the themes remain the same. China – commodities – liquidity – and monetary support from the Central banks who have tried in vain to ease the global financial system away from eternal life support.
2015 was a very challenging year for markets. Equities and bonds have begun to reflect – dare we say it? – a touch of realism after so many years of monetary support. Add to this the collapse in commodity prices and the first indications that the major central banks have finished with easing and we face much uncertainty in the coming year.
November FX markets were all about one thing: buying US Dollars. But in a heartbeat this notion has been disrupted by Mario Draghi, who reluctantly or otherwise has not given markets what he and other ECB officials had been hinting at all month.
October 2015 FX market report: Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown. So wrote William Shakespeare in King Henry IV Part Two. So lies the task of the US Federal Reserve whose long-anticipated but still pending rate hike has been blamed for much of the recent volatility in financial markets.
September 2015 FX market Commentary. Currency markets continued to feel the effects of a volatile August. While major pairs such as EURUSD and USDJPY were relatively calm, emerging markets continued to suffer, led by Brazil which witnessed a further 17pct drop at one point in the month.