We expect a positive turnaround of the world growth cycle this year, driven by developed economies. However, while a conventional recovery is more and more clearly taking shape in the United States, probably also in the UK, the eurozone is only just emerging from recession and Japan will be hit by a fiscal shock (hike in VAT) that will not be totally offset by public demand.
Global liquidity will continue to rise next year, but its source will change, which is unfavorable for emerging economies. This summer´s currency crisis, already rationed the financing of their current account deficits and led some central banks to raise key interest rates. Per se negative, this shock occurs in an environment in which the structural weaknesses of emerging economies – infrastructure, qualification of the labour force and income inequalities – call for correction, especially since domestic demand is no more bolstered by rich commodities exports.
Thus, starting from a low point reached in second quarter 2013, we believe that world growth will pick up in 2014 and in 2015, principally in developed economies, and to the detriment of emerging economies. It also seems to us that the corporate investment cycle, will take a positive turn in certain G7 countries (USA, UK, Germany) and elsewhere (Spain).