Pictet Asset Management publishes „Secular Outlook“

Download Pictet Asset Management's latest Secular Outlook, which provides asset class return forecasts for the next five years and discusses the structural trends that will transform the investment landscape. Key insights include:

  • 0% real return for a global passive 50/50 Equity/Bond portfolio over next 5 years (vs last 5 years and LT average of 4-4.5%) – and with a higher volatility
  • Global (mild) recession sooner rather than later (likely trigger: collapse in capex), with much lower fiscal and monetary firepower than a decade ago.
  • Globalization is in retreat and trade wars becoming the norm. Demographic trends are reversing just now: more spenders than savers (asset price < consumer price inflation)
  • Inflation to remain muted forcing central banks & governments to rethink their policy framework (inflation targeting regime, MMT) – inflation expectations to rise
  • China’s growth in secular decline but private consumption to be the biggest engine of global growth. China’s assets to re-rate as foreign demand rises. China become a financial powerhouse.
  • Global equities ~5% return p.a. (end of business cycle, margins peaking, no downside in real rates)
  • Government bonds 0-0.5% (real rates are still negative, valuation very expensive, debt levels and issuance high and credit rating lower, inflation risk premia low, implied vola very low)
  • Over the very long term (10+ years), world equity return to be c 3.5% and world bond return c 1% - half the long-term average
  • On a risk-adjusted basis, hedge funds will provide the best return (3.7%). Gold is best diversifier. Cash, EM local debt, UK Equities and EM Asia also on the projected efficient frontier
  • Avoid European bonds, credit, US equities and private equities – all assets on the efficient frontier of the past 10 years.
  • Best time ever to diversify away from US: US equities to underperform (by c 5% p.a. in USD terms) and USD to depreciate (valuation, shrinking growth differential, twin deficit)

Please find further information on the Secular Outlook, as well as the full report, on am.pictet.