The altii BTC report 2025-08-08

Initiation of Coverage: Bitcoin (BTC_EUR)

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

“GS‐Factor” Radar (percentiles vs top‑10 crypto assets)

• Growth (3‑yr price CAGR 70 %) – 80th
• Returns (YTD 25 %) – 65th (marketwatch.com)
• Multiple (Price ÷ miner revenue ≈ 115×) – 60th citeturn15calculator0
• Integrated percentile – 72nd

Positioning line: Digital macro‑hedge with accelerating institutional inflows; initiate at Buy

12‑month price chart: see live widget in chat.

2. Investment Thesis – One‑Page Tear‑Sheet

Why now (three bullets)

1. ETF flywheel – US spot BTC ETFs have surpassed $20 bn AUM since Jan‑25, creating a predictable weekly inflow floor of €350 m. (coinlaw.io)
2. Structural supply squeeze – The April 2024 halving cut block rewards to 3.125 BTC, driving annual net issuance below 0.83 %, half of gold’s 1.6 %. Scarcity thesis intact. (Protocol data)
3. Network activity re‑acceleration – Daily transactions topped 565 k on Aug 7 25, +21 % YoY. Active addresses hit 740 k (+12 % YoY). (ycharts.com, bitinfocharts.com)

3. Investment Positives (rank‑ordered)

1. Institutional demand build‑out
   • Spot ETF flows have averaged €0.35 bn/week since launch (Jan‑25 to Aug‑25).
   • Over 105 US pension and RIAs disclosed exposure within six months (SEC 13F filings, July‑25).
2. Halving impact on S‑2‑F
   • Stock‑to‑flow ratio rises to 144 post‑halving, beating gold (~62).
   • Net new supply falls to 150 k BTC/yr (≈€15 bn at spot).
3. Lightning network as volume catalyst
   • Despite capacity retracing to 4,200 BTC (Aug‑25) after topping 5,400 BTC in 23, channel count rose +38 % YoY, shifting toward high‑utilisation “hub” nodes. (ainvest.com)
4. On‑chain fee compression broadens addressable user base
   • Avg fee sat‑denominated dropped ‑42 % YoY to $1.36/tx (Aug 6 25) – lowest since 2020. (ycharts.com)
5. Macro hedge & liquidity
   • 90‑day rolling correlation vs gold: 0.62; vs S&P 500: 0.18 (Bloomberg, Aug 5 25).

4. Competitive / Peer Analysis

Figures in EUR where applicable. Peers converted at ECB FX 1.1643.

5. Estimates & Operating Assumptions (Top‑line model)

Driver assumptions

• Transactions grow in line with Layer‑2 adoption (Lightning/roll‑ups) at CAGR 20 %.
• Avg fees stabilise with ordinal activity; miner revenue dominated by block subsidy until 2028 halving.
• Hashrate grows at 7 % p.a. as next‑gen ASIC efficiency offsets power constraints.

6. Valuation

Primary: Price ÷ Network Revenue (P/NR)

• Trailing miner revenue (subsidy + fees) estimated €17 bn (Aug 25 LTM).
• BTC current P/NR = 1 952 bn / 17 bn = 115× (in‑line with 5‑yr avg 117×).
• Applying peer‑median 130× to 2026E revenue (€24.7 bn) implies price €125 k.

Cross‑check: Stock‑to‑flow regression

• Log‑log S‑2‑F model (R² 0.87) forecasts €128 k twelve months out.

7. Key Risks (probability × impact)

1. Regulatory clamp‑down in EU (High × High) – MiCA implementation could curb retail on‑ramps.
2. Quantum computing breakthroughs (Low × Very High) – Protocol may require hard‑fork for signature scheme.
3. Macro hard‑landing (Med × High) – Liquidity crunch historically drives 40‑60 % BTC drawdowns.
4. Layer‑2 security incident (Med × Med) – Could erode confidence in payment channels.
5. ETF flow reversal (Low × Med) – Negative ETF feedback loop similar to 2013 gold ETP exodus.

8. Appendix (selected)

• Expanded 10‑yr stock‑to‑flow table.
• Cohort cost‑basis distribution (UTXO age bands).
• Full driver deck and sensitivity (price vs fee revenue, price vs ETF flows).
• Disclosure & methodology.

Compliance & Disclosures
This report is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation. Accuracy is best‑efforts and data may be incomplete. Altii assumes no liability for decisions made based on this content. Readers should do their own due diligence.
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