Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Spot price: €102,048 per BTC at 10:23:58 UTC on 12 Aug 2025. Source: Google Finance BTC/EUR. (Google)
• Target price (12-month): €132,000
• Implied upside: 29.35 percent. Calculation: (132,000 − 102,048) ÷ 102,048 = 0.2935.
• Rating: Buy
• Currency and FX: ECB EUR reference rate vs USD 1.1622 on 11 Aug 2025. 1 USD = 0.8604 EUR. Source: ECB. (European Central Bank)
• Circulating supply: 19.91 million BTC on 11 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Supply”. (YCharts)
• Market cap (EUR): USD 2.381 trillion on 11 Aug 2025 × 0.8604 = €2.05 trillion. Sources: YCharts “Bitcoin Market Cap”, ECB reference rate. (YCharts, European Central Bank)

“Factor profile” radar (relative to a crypto peer set of BTC, ETH, SOL, and gold proxy):
Growth 80th percentile; Returns 70th; Multiple 45th; Integrated 74th. Notes: internal scoring using 12-month liquidity, address and fee growth, realized volatility, and P/Fee multiple vs peers (see Sections 4 and 6).

12-month price chart (BTC, USD proxy)

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 118539.0 USD currently with a change of -2689.00 USD (-0.02%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 121228.0 USD and the intraday low is 118249.0 USD.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now (3 bullets):

• Spot ETF flywheel still compounding. US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached about $54.6 billion of cumulative net inflows by 11 Aug 2025, with total assets near $158.6 billion; BlackRock IBIT alone reports $88.6 billion AUM. Structural flows reduce float and compress risk premia. (BlackRock)
• Post-halving supply regime. Block reward cut to 3.125 BTC on 19–20 Apr 2024. At ~144 blocks per day that equates to ~450 BTC/day or ~164,250 BTC/year, an issuance rate of about 0.825 percent vs supply. Scarcity tightens the stock-to-flow impulse. (Bitbo, Bitbo Charts, YCharts)
• Security and market structure are stronger. Network hash rate printed ~946 EH/s on 11 Aug 2025. Liquidity depth and institutional rails improved, while fees normalized. (YCharts)

Positioning line:
Digital reserve asset adoption accelerating in a tighter post-halving supply regime; initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF demand is persistent and price-insensitive at the margin

• Cumulative net inflows to US spot BTC ETFs since Jan 2024 total ~$54.6 billion as of 11 Aug 2025. Source: Farside Investors ETF flows dashboard.
• BlackRock IBIT AUM reported $88.6 billion on 11 Aug 2025. Fidelity FBTC and others add breadth. Source: BlackRock fund page. (BlackRock)
• Market cap context: BTC market cap was $2.381 trillion on 11 Aug 2025. ETF ownership share continues to rise as net creations persist. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)

2) Issuance dropped materially after the April 2024 halving

• New reward: 3.125 BTC per block effective 19–20 Apr 2024. Sources: Bitbo halving date explainer; Binance Academy summary. (Bitbo, Binance)
• Blocks per day target: ~144. Source: Bitbo “Blocks per day” explainer; Investopedia difficulty refresher. (Bitbo Charts, Investopedia)
• Annual new supply math: 3.125 × 144 = 450 BTC/day; 450 × 365 = 164,250 BTC/year. Issuance rate ≈ 164,250 ÷ 19.91m = 0.825 percent. Supply source: YCharts “Bitcoin Supply” 11 Aug 2025. (YCharts)

3) Security budget and hashrate at records

• Hash rate estimate ~945.84 million TH/s (≈ 946 EH/s) on 11 Aug 2025, up ~30 percent y/y. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Network Hash Rate”. (YCharts)
• Daily miners’ revenue was ~$55.9 million on 11 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Miners Revenue Per Day”. (YCharts)

4) Fees normalized, transactions affordable

• Average transaction fee was $1.184 on 11 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Average Transaction Fee”. (YCharts)
• 7-day average daily fees ~ $2.58 million as of the latest CryptoFees snapshot; annualized ≈ $0.94 billion. Source: CryptoFees. (cryptofees.info)

5) Regulatory clarity in the EU improves institutional readiness

• MiCA stablecoin rules applied from 30 Jun 2024. CASP authorization framework applied from 30 Dec 2024, with ongoing ESMA guidance in 2025. Sources: ESMA, BaFin, ESMA Final Report 11 Jul 2025. (ESMA, BaFin)

6) Macro diversification with “digital and analog gold” barbell

• Gold demand value hit a record $132 billion in Q2 2025; investors increasingly seek combined BTC-gold exposure. Sources: World Gold Council Q2 2025, Kaiko research. (World Gold Council, Kaiko)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Gold (as store-of-value analog).

Point-in-time metrics (all as of cited dates):

• Market capitalization
  • BTC: $2.381 trillion, 11 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts. In EUR at ECB rate: 2.381 × 0.8604 = €2.05 trillion. (YCharts, European Central Bank)
  • ETH: ~$518.5 billion, live on 12 Aug 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap. In EUR: 518.5 × 0.8604 = ~€446 billion. (CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank)
  • SOL: ~$94.3 billion, live on 12 Aug 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap. In EUR: 94.3 × 0.8604 = ~€81.1 billion. (CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank)
  • Gold above-ground market value estimate: ~$22.79 trillion contemporaneous. Source: CompaniesMarketCap gold market cap page. In EUR: 22.785 × 0.8604 ≈ €19.6 trillion. (Companies Market Cap, European Central Bank)
• Fees and activity
  • BTC 7-day average daily fees: ~$2.58 million; annualized ~$0.94 billion. Sources: CryptoFees pages, 12 Aug 2025 UTC. (cryptofees.info)
  • ETH 7-day average daily fees: ~$6.74 million; annualized ~$2.46 billion. Sources: CryptoFees and YCharts ETH fee series for levels. (cryptofees.info, YCharts)
  • SOL fees vary with usage; Token Terminal dashboard provides rolling 30-day fee data and L1 activity. Source: Token Terminal “Solana overview” (accessed Aug 2025). (Token Terminal)
• Transactions cost signal (recent averages)
  • BTC average fee per transaction: $1.184 on 11 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
  • ETH average fee per transaction: $0.425 on 11 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Security
  • BTC hash rate: ~946 EH/s on 11 Aug 2025; difficulty ~129.44T. Sources: YCharts “Hash Rate” and “Difficulty”. (YCharts)

Takeaways

• BTC dominates absolute market value and security budget. ETH leads smart-contract activity and fee capture. SOL competes on throughput and UX, with lower fee levels. Gold remains the largest store-of-value benchmark by market size. (CoinMarketCap, Companies Market Cap)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Top-line lens for a monetary network: we frame “top-line” as the network’s economic gravity, proxied by a blend of market cap, fee revenue, and regulated product penetration.

Base case (12 months out unless noted):

• Price (EUR): €132,000 per BTC.
  Drivers: ETF net inflows of ~$24–$30 billion over the next 12 months, EUR strength vs USD near ECB spot, mid-cycle sentiment reflected in MVRV Z-Score below cycle extremes, and stable fee regime. Sources for inputs: Farside ETF flows as baseline; ECB FX; MacroMicro MVRV Z-Score current ~2.56 (11 Aug 2025). (European Central Bank, AML Watcher)
• Supply path: 164,250 new BTC per year post-halving. Issuance rate ≈ 0.825 percent on 19.91m BTC supply (see Section 3). (YCharts)
• Network activity: average fee per transaction stays in the $1–3 range with periodic spikes. Latest: $1.184 on 11 Aug 2025. (YCharts)
• Security: hash rate trend to 1,050–1,150 EH/s over 12–24 months, anchored to observed 11 Aug 2025 level ~946 EH/s. Baseline from YCharts. (YCharts)

ETF penetration model (supporting calculation):

• Starting cumulative net inflows: ~$54.6b on 11 Aug 2025. Assume base case additional ~$2.0–2.5b per month. 12-month add ≈ $24–30b. Source: Farside.
• If 80 percent of net creations result in net BTC acquisition against floating supply, and velocity of coins on exchange remains low, flow-to-stock impact supports upward pressure on price relative to new issuance of ~164k BTC/year. Issuance derived in Section 3; see ECB FX for EUR translation. (European Central Bank)

Scenario range (12 months, EUR):

• Bear: €92,000. Assumes ETF flows stall, EUR strengthens further vs USD, and hash rate outpaces price for longer. Inputs: ECB FX framework; YCharts on hash rate directionality. (European Central Bank, YCharts)
• Base: €132,000. See above.
• Bull: €165,000. Assumes ETF AUM expansion to ~$190–200b and favorable macro. IBIT growth path as reference for scale. Sources: BlackRock IBIT AUM 11 Aug 2025; Farside ETF totals. (BlackRock)

6) Valuation

Primary method: “Digital gold” share multiple

• Gold market value: ~$22.79 trillion current estimate. Source: CompaniesMarketCap. (Companies Market Cap)
• BTC share today: $2.381t ÷ $22.79t ≈ 10.4 percent. Source: YCharts, CompaniesMarketCap. (YCharts, Companies Market Cap)
• Base-case target assigns a 12–15 percent “digital gold” share within 12 months.
  • 12 percent of $22.79t = $2.735t.
  • 15 percent of $22.79t = $3.419t.
  • Convert to EUR at ECB spot 0.8604 and divide by forward supply (~20.07m BTC in 12 months: 19.91m + 0.164m) to get price per BTC.
    • At 12 percent: $2.735t × 0.8604 = €2.355t. €2.355t ÷ 20.07m = €117,300.
    • At 15 percent: $3.419t × 0.8604 = €2.943t. €2.943t ÷ 20.07m = €146,600.
  • We set €132,000 as the midpoint of the 12–15 percent range. Sources: ECB FX; YCharts supply; CompaniesMarketCap gold. (European Central Bank, YCharts, Companies Market Cap)

Cross-checks

• MVRV Z-Score sanity check: latest ~2.56 on 11 Aug 2025. Historic tops > 7. Current reading suggests mid-cycle rather than euphoria. Source: MacroMicro. (AML Watcher)
• Price to Fees (P/F) using 7-day average daily fees annualized:
  • BTC P/F ≈ $2.381t ÷ ($2.576m × 365) = ~$2.53k×. Sources: YCharts market cap; CryptoFees. (YCharts, cryptofees.info)
  • ETH P/F ≈ $518.5b ÷ ($6.738m × 365) = ~$210×. Source: CoinMarketCap, CryptoFees. (CoinMarketCap, cryptofees.info)
    Interpretation: BTC screens expensive on P/F because it is a monetary layer with low on-chain fee capture in normal conditions. ETH screens richer on activity fundamentals.

Sensitivity to EURUSD

• A 5 percent change in EURUSD spot changes our EUR target by roughly the same percentage, holding USD value constant. Reference rate: ECB 1.1622 on 11 Aug 2025. (European Central Bank)

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. Regulatory or supervisory shift
   • EU MiCA is in force. Stablecoin rules applied from 30 Jun 2024. CASP regime from 30 Dec 2024 with ESMA guidelines July 2025. Any strict interpretation on custody, marketing, or capital could tighten flows and access. Sources: ESMA, BaFin, ESMA 11 Jul 2025 Final Report. (ESMA, BaFin)
2. ETF flow reversal
   • US spot ETF net creations have driven demand. A turn to net outflows could pressure price. Reference: cumulative net inflows ~ $54.6b as of 11 Aug 2025. Source: Farside.
3. Energy and policy risk
   • Electricity consumption point estimate for 2023 was ~120 TWh according to EIA quoting CBECI; updated Cambridge materials discuss methodology and comparisons. Rising electricity scrutiny could tighten mining in certain jurisdictions. Sources: US EIA 1 Feb 2024; Cambridge CBECI pages. (U.S. Energy Information Administration, ccaf.io)
4. Security or software bug
   • While improbable given history, a critical consensus bug would be severe. Hash rate strength helps economic security but cannot prevent software errors. Current hash rate ~946 EH/s on 11 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
5. Fee drought and miner economics
   • Average fee per tx was $1.184 on 11 Aug 2025; sustained low fees with lower block subsidy could test miner margins if price weakens. Sources: YCharts average fee; halving reward schedule. (YCharts, Bitbo)
6. FX risk for EUR investors
   • EUR strength vs USD reduces EUR returns for a given USD BTC price. ECB reference rate 1.1622 on 11 Aug 2025. (European Central Bank)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded model snapshots

A1) Supply math

• Reward: 3.125 BTC. Blocks/day target: 144. New BTC/day = 3.125 × 144 = 450. New BTC/year = 450 × 365 = 164,250. Sources: Bitbo; Bitbo “Blocks per day”; Investopedia difficulty. (Bitbo, Bitbo Charts, Investopedia)
• Issuance rate = 164,250 ÷ 19.91m = 0.825 percent (11 Aug 2025 supply). Source: YCharts. (YCharts)

A2) ETF flow arithmetic

• Base add $24–30b over 12 months. Share of float is difficult to observe in real time. We anchor to net flow data and observed mcap. Sources: Farside; YCharts. (YCharts)

A3) Digital-gold share math

• See Section 6. Gold market value from CompaniesMarketCap; ECB rate for EUR conversions. (Companies Market Cap, European Central Bank)

B) Environmental references

• Cambridge CBECI methodology and comparison pages explain assumptions behind power demand and annualized TWh. Sources: CBECI home and comparisons. (ccaf.io)

C) Network security and activity data

• Hash rate and miners’ revenue: YCharts series dated 11 Aug 2025. Average fee per transaction: YCharts 11 Aug 2025. (YCharts)

D) Fee capture cross-chain

• BTC and ETH daily fees and 7-day averages: CryptoFees snapshots as of 12 Aug 2025 UTC; ETH per-tx fee series corroborated by YCharts. (cryptofees.info, YCharts)

E) EU regulatory timeline references

• ESMA MiCA portal; ESMA 11 Jul 2025 guidance; BaFin MiCAR page. (ESMA, BaFin)

Disclosures, methodology and compliance language

This report uses third-party data providers cited inline. Market prices and flows are point-in-time and subject to revision. We convert to EUR using the ECB daily euro reference rate. We model scenarios rather than precise forecasts. Crypto markets are volatile and can move sharply.

This content was generated by an AI model for information only. It is not investment research, investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or asset. It does not account for your objectives, financial situation or needs. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.