Initiation of Coverage: Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR)

Rating: Neutral

12-Month Price Target: €72,000

Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

Initiating coverage on Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) with a Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of €72,000. Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant market correction, with prices down nearly 50% from its all-time high, creating a complex risk/reward profile. While long-term fundamentals remain robust, short-term headwinds persist amidst a broader “crypto crunch.” Our Neutral rating reflects both the potential for a recovery from oversold conditions and the ongoing market uncertainty, advising a patient approach for investors.

• Current Price (as of Feb 2026): €59,398
• Market Capitalization: €1,185,994,660,118.54
• 24h Volume: €82,841,122,442.04
• 24h Change: +6.70%
• Implied Circulating Supply: ~19,966,749 BTC (Calculated as Market Cap / Current Price)

Forecast Summary

Our price targets anticipate a gradual recovery and re-accumulation phase for Bitcoin, assuming resolution of the current “crypto crunch” over the medium term and continued underlying adoption.

• Feb 2027 Price Target: €72,000 (+21.2% from current price)
  • Forecasted Market Cap: €1,437,605,928,000 (Based on 19,966,749 BTC circulating supply)
  • Rationale: Represents a moderate recovery from “capitulation mode,” but remains below prior all-time highs as macro and crypto-specific headwinds gradually subside.
• Feb 2028 Price Target: €85,000 (+43.1% from current price)
  • Forecasted Market Cap: €1,697,173,665,000
  • Rationale: Assumes continued re-accumulation and strengthening of the digital asset market, potentially challenging previous cycle highs.
• Feb 2029 Price Target: €100,000 (+68.3% from current price)
  • Forecasted Market Cap: €1,996,674,900,000
  • Rationale: Reflects potential for new cycle highs driven by sustained institutional and retail adoption, improved regulatory clarity, and post-halving scarcity effects.

Investment Thesis

Bitcoin (BTC) holds a unique position as the preeminent decentralized digital asset, driven by unparalleled scarcity, a robust network, and growing institutional interest. While currently navigating a challenging “crypto crunch” marked by significant price depreciation, we believe its long-term value proposition as a digital store of value remains intact. Our Neutral rating balances the immediate risks and market uncertainty with the compelling structural tailwinds that could drive future appreciation.

Why Now?

• Significant Price Correction: Bitcoin has lost almost 50% of its value from its all-time high and is in “full capitulation mode” (Business Insider, Feb 2026; Hedgeco.net, Feb 2026). This presents a potential entry point for long-term investors willing to tolerate short-term volatility, as historical capitulation events have often preceded recovery periods.
• Unwavering Scarcity: The fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC and the predictable halving schedule (last in April 2024) ensure continued scarcity, reinforcing its store-of-value narrative. This fundamental characteristic underpins long-term price appreciation potential.
• Growing Network Resilience: Despite price volatility, Bitcoin’s underlying network continues to demonstrate robust security, decentralization, and uptime. Increasing global hash rate (proxy for network security) and active addresses suggest ongoing fundamental strength.
• Institutional Integration: Despite recent reports of institutional selling (CryptoQuant, Feb 2026), the long-term trend towards institutional adoption via spot ETFs and corporate balance sheet allocations remains a powerful demand driver, although currently dampened by macro sentiment.
• Macroeconomic Hedging Potential: In an environment characterized by inflation concerns and geopolitical instability, Bitcoin continues to be viewed by some as a digital hedge, offering an alternative to traditional safe-haven assets.

Investment Positives

We identify several key drivers supporting Bitcoin’s long-term value, even amidst current market difficulties:

1. Irreducible Scarcity and Deflationary Monetary Policy: Bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million units and its programmatic halving events, which reduce new supply issuance by 50% approximately every four years (the latest occurring in April 2024), create a truly deflationary asset. This predictable supply schedule is a fundamental differentiator compared to fiat currencies and even other digital assets.
2. Decentralization and Censorship Resistance: Bitcoin’s distributed network of nodes and miners ensures no single entity can control its supply or transactions. This inherent decentralization provides a high degree of censorship resistance and resilience, appealing to individuals and institutions seeking an unseizable asset.
3. Global Liquidity and Network Effect: As the largest and most widely recognized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin benefits from unparalleled liquidity across global exchanges and OTC desks. Its established network effect, encompassing developers, users, miners, and infrastructure providers, creates a strong moat against competitors and enhances its long-term viability.
4. Increasing Institutional Infrastructure and Adoption: The approval and subsequent trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly broadened access for institutional investors, pension funds, and wealth managers. While short-term institutional flows can be volatile, this infrastructure legitimizes Bitcoin as an asset class and facilitates long-term capital allocation.
5. Technological Robustness and Security: The Bitcoin network has operated for over 15 years with near-perfect uptime and an uncompromised security record. Its Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism, supported by a massive global hash rate, makes it incredibly expensive and impractical to attack, ensuring transaction finality and data integrity.

Competitive/Peer Analysis

We assess Bitcoin against two primary comparators: Gold as a traditional store of value and Ethereum (ETH) as a leading smart contract platform.

Bitcoin vs. Gold (Digital Gold vs. Physical Gold)

• Scarcity: Both Bitcoin and Gold are characterized by scarcity. Gold’s supply is finite but unknown and continues to increase through mining. Bitcoin’s supply is mathematically capped at 21 million units, with a transparent and predictable issuance schedule. Bitcoin offers “absolute scarcity” while Gold offers “relative scarcity.”
• Divisibility & Portability: Bitcoin is highly divisible (to 8 decimal places) and globally portable at the speed of light, with minimal transaction costs (relative to value transferred). Gold is less divisible and physically cumbersome, expensive, and slow to transport globally in significant quantities.
• Store of Value: Gold has a multi-millennial history as a store of value, deeply ingrained in human psychology. Bitcoin’s history is shorter but its digital scarcity and censorship resistance are compelling attributes for a modern store of value, particularly for younger generations and in digitally-native economies.
• Verifiability: Bitcoin’s authenticity can be cryptographically verified by anyone running a node. Gold requires specialized testing to ensure purity and authenticity.
• Volatility: Bitcoin exhibits significantly higher price volatility compared to Gold, which is a more stable (though still volatile) asset. This difference is a key consideration for risk-averse investors.
• Correlation: Historically, Bitcoin has shown periods of decorrelation with traditional assets, similar to Gold, positioning it as an alternative hedge. However, in times of significant market stress, correlations can increase.

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum (Store of Value vs. Smart Contract Utility)

• Purpose: Bitcoin’s primary function is a decentralized, hard-capped store of value and peer-to-peer electronic cash. Ethereum’s primary function is a decentralized global computer, enabling smart contracts and dApps, often referred to as “digital oil” for its utility.
• Monetary Policy: Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap and a clear halving schedule. Ethereum has transitioned to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism with a flexible monetary policy that aims for net deflationary issuance through fee burning, but does not have a hard cap on total supply.
• Network Architecture: Bitcoin prioritizes security, decentralization, and stability over transactional throughput. Ethereum prioritizes programmability and scalability (via sharding, rollups, etc.) to support a vast ecosystem of applications.
• Transaction Speed & Cost: Ethereum generally offers faster transaction finality and lower fees for simple transactions compared to Bitcoin’s base layer, though Bitcoin’s Layer 2 solutions (e.g., Lightning Network) offer high-speed, low-cost micro-transactions.
• Ecosystem: Ethereum boasts a much larger and more diverse ecosystem of DeFi, NFTs, and dApps built on its platform. Bitcoin’s ecosystem is primarily focused on its monetary properties, though innovations like Ordinals and Layer 2s are expanding its utility.
• Risk Profile: Both are volatile, but Ethereum carries additional protocol-level risks due to its complexity and ongoing developmental changes. Bitcoin, being more mature and simpler in design, is generally perceived as having a lower protocol risk profile.

Estimates & Operating Assumptions (3-Year Forward Looking: 2026-2029)

We provide forward-looking estimates and operating assumptions for key Bitcoin network metrics, reflecting a projected recovery from the 2026 “crypto crunch” and sustained long-term growth.

Price Targets (as previously detailed)

• Feb 2027 Price Target: €72,000
• Feb 2028 Price Target: €85,000
• Feb 2029 Price Target: €100,000

Network Operating Assumptions

These assumptions are based on historical growth trends, projected institutional adoption, and the resolution of current market headwinds.

• Circulating Supply:
  • Feb 2026: ~19,966,749 BTC (Current)
  • Feb 2027: ~20,080,000 BTC (Approx. +113,000 BTC mined annually post-halving)
  • Feb 2028: ~20,193,000 BTC
  • Feb 2029: ~20,306,000 BTC
  • Rationale: Bitcoin’s supply schedule is highly predictable, with ~6.25 BTC mined every 10 minutes until the next halving (estimated 2028). The annual issuance is fixed at approximately 3.125 BTC per block reward after the April 2024 halving.
• Network Hash Rate (EH/s):
  • Feb 2026: 600 EH/s (Estimate, current market volatility may depress it)
  • Feb 2027: 750 EH/s (+25% YoY)
  • Feb 2028: 900 EH/s (+20% YoY)
  • Feb 2029: 1,100 EH/s (+22% YoY)
  • Rationale: Despite short-term miner capitulation during bear markets, the long-term trend for hash rate is upward, driven by efficiency improvements in mining hardware and increased global competition. Reflects recovery and sustained investment.
• Active Addresses (30-day average):
  • Feb 2026: 1.2M (Estimate, potentially depressed during crunch)
  • Feb 2027: 1.5M (+25% YoY)
  • Feb 2028: 1.8M (+20% YoY)
  • Feb 2029: 2.2M (+22% YoY)
  • Rationale: Reflects user growth and increased on-chain activity as market sentiment improves and adoption expands globally, particularly in emerging markets.
• On-Chain Transaction Count (Daily Avg):
  • Feb 2026: 300,000 (Estimate, lower during market downturns)
  • Feb 2027: 375,000 (+25% YoY)
  • Feb 2028: 450,000 (+20% YoY)
  • Feb 2029: 550,000 (+22% YoY)
  • Rationale: Growth in transaction count is tied to overall network usage and utility. While Layer 2 solutions offload some transactions, base layer activity is expected to grow with broader adoption.

Valuation

Valuing Bitcoin requires a blend of traditional and crypto-specific metrics, as its fundamental utility differs significantly from traditional equities.

1. NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio)

The NVT Ratio is analogous to a P/E ratio for traditional assets. It compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization (Network Value) to its daily on-chain transaction volume (proxy for Network Utility). A high NVT suggests the network value is disproportionately high relative to its transactional utility, indicating potential overvaluation. A low NVT suggests undervaluation.

• Calculation (Conceptual): Market Capitalization / Daily On-Chain Transaction Volume (in EUR)
• Current Status (Feb 2026): Given the “full capitulation mode” and “down almost 50% from ATH” narratives (Business Insider, Feb 2026; Fool.com, Feb 2026), it is highly probable that Bitcoin’s NVT ratio is currently at a relatively low level compared to historical averages. This suggests the market value has fallen more significantly than the underlying on-chain transaction activity, implying Bitcoin could be undervalued from an NVT perspective. Investors typically look for NVT ratios in the lower quartile of historical values as potential accumulation zones.
• Outlook: As Bitcoin recovers and on-chain activity potentially picks up, a normalizing NVT ratio would signal a more balanced valuation.

Note: We use “on-chain transaction volume” conceptually here as direct live data for this specific metric is not provided. The 24h volume provided is exchange trading volume, not on-chain settlement volume, and is therefore not directly applicable to a strict NVT calculation.

2. Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model

The Stock-to-Flow model, popularized by PlanB, projects Bitcoin’s price based on its scarcity. It calculates the ratio of existing supply (Stock) to annual new supply (Flow). Assets with high S2F ratios (meaning high stock relative to low new flow) are considered scarcer and, by the model’s premise, more valuable.

• Calculation: Total Circulating Supply / Annual New Supply (Miners’ Block Rewards)
• Current Status (Post-April 2024 Halving): Following the April 2024 halving, the new supply of Bitcoin per block was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This significantly increased Bitcoin’s S2F ratio, making it one of the scarcest assets globally.
• Annual New Supply: ~3.125 BTC/block * 6 blocks/hour * 24 hours/day * 365 days/year = ~164,250 BTC/year
• Current Circulating Supply (Feb 2026): ~19,966,749 BTC
• Current S2F Ratio: 19,966,749 / 164,250 = ~121.5
• Outlook: While the S2F model has limitations and doesn’t account for demand shocks or macro events, its theoretical framework suggests that Bitcoin’s enhanced scarcity post-halving should underpin a higher long-term value. The current price being significantly below prior all-time highs, especially after a halving, implies that S2F might indicate undervaluation if its historical correlations were to hold.

3. Network Effects (Metcalfe’s Law)

Metcalfe’s Law posits that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users (V ~ n^2). Applied to Bitcoin, the network’s value increases exponentially with the growth in its user base, active addresses, developers, mining power, and integrated services.

• Metrics:
  • Active Addresses: Growing number of unique addresses sending or receiving BTC indicates expanding user adoption.
  • Hash Rate: Increasing computational power dedicated to securing the network enhances its resilience and trustworthiness.
  • Node Count: A geographically distributed and growing number of full nodes ensures decentralization and censorship resistance.
  • Developer Activity: A vibrant ecosystem of developers working on the core protocol and Layer 2 solutions (e.g., Lightning Network) fosters innovation and expands utility.
• Current Status & Outlook: Despite price volatility, Bitcoin’s underlying network continues to attract users and developers, and its hash rate generally maintains an upward trajectory over the long term. This sustained growth in network participants and infrastructure reinforces the network effect, which we believe will continue to drive Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition higher over time.

Key Risks

Investing in Bitcoin carries substantial risks. Our Neutral rating acknowledges these factors:

• Regulatory Uncertainty and Crackdown Risk: Governments globally are grappling with how to regulate cryptocurrencies. Potential outright bans, restrictive tax policies, or stringent KYC/AML requirements in major jurisdictions could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price and adoption. The “2026 Crypto Crunch” could be exacerbated by new, unfavorable regulations.
• Market Volatility and Sentiment Shifts: Bitcoin is notorious for extreme price swings, driven by retail speculation, macroeconomic news, and social media sentiment. The current “capitulation mode” (Business Insider, Feb 2026) highlights the rapid and severe nature of these downturns, making it difficult to predict short-term movements.
• Technological Risks: While robust, the Bitcoin network is not immune to potential vulnerabilities. These include critical software bugs, successful 51% attacks (though increasingly improbable with growing hash rate), or the eventual emergence of quantum computing capable of breaking current cryptographic standards (a long-term theoretical risk).
• Competition from Other Cryptocurrencies & CBDCs: A vast number of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) and emerging Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) could divert capital and attention from Bitcoin. While Bitcoin maintains its position as the dominant digital store of value, competition could impact its market share and narrative.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: Factors such as rising interest rates, global liquidity tightening, or a broader economic recession can significantly impact risk assets like Bitcoin, leading to capital flight from speculative investments. The “2026 Crypto Crunch” suggests macro factors are already at play.
• Environmental Concerns (ESG): Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work mining consumes significant energy, leading to environmental criticisms. Increasing ESG pressures could lead to regulatory scrutiny, institutional divestment, or a shift in public perception, negatively impacting demand.
• Custodial and Exchange Risks: While Bitcoin itself is decentralized, many investors hold their assets on centralized exchanges or with third-party custodians, which are susceptible to hacking, insolvency, or regulatory confiscation.

Appendix

Methodology

Our analysis and forecasts are based on a synthesis of publicly available market data, recent news reports, established cryptocurrency valuation models (NVT, Stock-to-Flow), and qualitative assessments of network fundamentals (hash rate, active addresses, developer activity). Price targets and operating assumptions are derived from an assessment of Bitcoin’s historical performance, expected recovery from the current “crypto crunch,” and long-term adoption trends, combined with our macro outlook for digital assets. The 12-month price target implies a moderate recovery from current depressed levels, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty and a potentially prolonged recovery period. All figures are presented in EUR.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies is highly speculative and involves a significant risk of loss. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are subject to change without notice. This report was generated by an AI assistant and should be treated as a comprehensive market analysis, not as a product of human financial advisory.

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