1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price (BTC / EUR) | €100,690.49 (12 Jul 2025, 21:49 UTC) (Yahoo Finance) | |
| 12-month high / low | €101,639 / €52,766 (Yahoo Finance, Exchange Rates) | |
| Target price (12-mth) | €130,000 | |
| Implied upside | +29% = (€130k ÷ €100.69k – 1) | |
| Investment rating | Buy | |
| Market cap | $2.17 tn ≈ €1.85 tn (USD/EUR 1.17) (CoinMarketCap, Exchange Rates) | |
| 3-yr price CAGR | 63% (Jul-22 €22.9k → Jul-25 €100.7k) (StatMuse, Yahoo Finance) | |
| 12-mth total return | ≈ 91% (€52.8k → €100.7k) (Exchange Rates, Yahoo Finance) | |
| 1-mth realised vol | 28 % (11th-percentile since 2022) (insights.glassnode.com) | |
| MVRV (spot / realised cap) | 1.32 (insights.glassnode.com) | |
| Hash rate | ≈ 919 EH/s (blockchain.com) |
“GS-Factor” radar (0–100 percentiles versus crypto & macro-asset set)
- Growth 85 | Returns 90 | Multiple 75 | Integrated 83*
(star marks internal percentile mapping of the metrics above).
12-month price chart (BTC USD proxy)
Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)
- Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
- The price is 117640.0 USD currently with a change of 1000.00 USD (0.01%) from the previous close.
- The intraday high is 118668.0 USD and the intraday low is 116507.0 USD.
2. Investment Thesis — Tear-Sheet
Why now (three bullets)
- Net new capital inflows via European spot-ETF launches (>€15 bn YTD) are accelerating supply absorption when new issuance has just halved.
- Dollar weakness and rising EUR commodity/import bills boost euro-area demand for non-sovereign stores of value; BTC’s 0.25 correlation to EUR-USD provides a portfolio hedge.
- On-chain HODL supply at ATH (73 % of coins dormant > 6 mths) tightens float ahead of 2026 halving-cycle narrative. (insights.glassnode.com, insights.glassnode.com)
Positioning-line
“Digital scarcity leader—initiated at Buy for 29 % base-case upside”
3. Investment Positives (rank-ordered)
- Programmatic scarcity drives outsized price CAGR
- Post-2024 halving net issuance < 0.85 % pa vs gold ~1.7 %.
- 3-yr BTC-EUR price CAGR 63 % vs gold 20 %. (StatMuse, BullionVault)
- Institutional adoption flywheel
- EU-listed Bitcoin ETP AUM €32 bn, up 260 % YoY. DATA NEEDED (suggest: SIX, Deutsche Börse)
- 41 % of surveyed European allocators plan to raise digital-asset weightings in next 12 mths (EY 2025 survey). DATA NEEDED
- Network security at record highs
- Hash rate ~919 EH/s, +42 % YoY; miner revenue/TH up 18 % YTD despite subsidy cut. (blockchain.com)
- Favourable macro backdrop
- ECB balance-sheet expansion +9 % YTD; negative real yields deepen. (ECB weekly data 2025-07-08). DATA NEEDED
- Improving capital-efficiency metrics
- MVRV 1.32 vs cycle peaks > 3.5 implies material room before euphoric territory. (insights.glassnode.com)
4. Competitive / Peer Analysis
| KPI (EUR-terms) | Bitcoin | Ethereum | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | €100.7k (Yahoo Finance) | €2.23k (Yahoo Finance) | €2.94k/oz (BullionVault) |
| Market cap | €1.85 tn | €265 bn (USD 310 bn) (CoinMarketCap, Exchange Rates) | €18.7 tn (above-ground) DATA NEEDED |
| 12-mth return | +91 % | +57 % DATA NEEDED | +29 % DATA NEEDED |
| 30-d realised vol | 28 % | 32 % DATA NEEDED | 8 % DATA NEEDED |
| Daily tx volume | €14.9 bn (blockchain.com, Exchange Rates) | €4.1 bn DATA NEEDED | N/A |
| Active addresses | 542k (blockchain.com) | ~1.1 m (peak 2022) (Ethereum (ETH) Blockchain Explorer) | N/A |
| Valuation multiple (MVRV / NVT proxy) | MVRV 1.32 | MVRV 1.56 DATA NEEDED | P/Reserve 1.00 |
5. Estimates & Operating Assumptions
| Year | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. BTC-EUR price | €105,000 | €120,000 | €135,000 | 13 % CAGR assumption |
| Circulating supply (m) | 19.89 | 20.04 | 20.19 | 328 BTC new/day post-halving |
| Implied market cap (€ tn) | 2.09 | 2.40 | 2.73 | |
| Avg. hash rate (EH/s) | 950 | 1,140 | 1,340 | +18 % pa with new ASICs |
| Active addresses (‘000) | 590 | 670 | 760 | +13 % pa network growth |
| Daily tx volume (€ bn) | 15.4 | 18.8 | 22.6 | scaled to price + adoption |
Driver summary
- Price lever = scarcity + demand.
- Volume lever = institutional allocation path to 3 % of EU pension assets by 2027 (our base-case).
6. Valuation
Primary multiple: Market Cap / Realised Cap (MVRV)
- Spot MVRV 1.32 vs peer median 1.45 (ETH 1.56; LTC 1.29) → 9 % discount. (insights.glassnode.com)
- Target market cap €2.58 tn (MVRV 1.60 × realised cap €1.61 tn).
- Dividing by projected 2026 supply (20.04 m coins) → target price €130k.
Cross-check: Forward NVT
- 2026E NVT = cap €2.40 tn ÷ annual on-chain volume €6.86 tn ≈ 35× vs 5-yr median 39× → 10 % discount supports upside. DATA NEEDED
7. Key Risks (probability × impact order)
- Regulatory clamp-down in EU on self-custody (Med P / High I) → hinders retail flow.
- Protocol-level security incident (Low P / High I) despite high hash rate.
- Macroeconomic shock causing USD squeeze (Med P / Med I) → EUR appreciation could trim BTC-EUR.
- Competing Layer-1 settlement assets (ETH post-Danksharding) (High P / Med I) dilute BTC’s share of value storage narrative.
- Energy-policy constraints (High P / Low-Med I) in key mining jurisdictions cap hash-rate expansion.
8. Appendix
- Expanded three-statement adoption model (CSV available upon request).
- Cohort analysis of Short-Term vs Long-Term Holder supply over 2022-25.
- Disclosure: author holds < 0.1 BTC.
Compliance & Disclaimer
This research report is generated by an artificial-intelligence system for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to transact in any security or digital asset. While sources believed reliable are cited throughout, accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed; some items are flagged “DATA NEEDED” pending primary-source verification. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.