The altii BTC Report 2025-07-18

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (EUR): ~€101,300 (≈ $117,650 ÷ 1.16) TradingView

• 12‑month target: €160,000 → +58% upside

• Investment rating: Buy

Factor Profile – Percentiles vs Crypto Universe:

• Growth: 80% (historical 66% CAGR) MarketWatch+2MarketWatch+2Cinco Días+2

• Returns: 85% (YTD +27% in EUR, +89% in USD) MarketWatch+1MarketWatch+1

• Multiple: N/A

• Integration: 75% (ETF assets ~€80–102 bn) MarketWatch+3The Guardian+3Wikipedia+3

12‑month price chart: DATA NEEDED (suggest TradingView BTCEUR).

2. Investment Thesis (One‑Page Tear‑Sheet)

Why now?

1. Institutional drive: Spot ETF inflows reached ~$14.8 bn (€13.0 bn) YTD The Guardian+8Mitrade+8Cointelegraph+8

2. Policy tailwinds: U.S. “Genius Act” and digital reserve support signal regulatory clarity Wall Street Journal+11News.com.au+11MarketWatch+11

3. Macro backdrop supports: Low rates, de‑risking trends, and macro uncertainty favor non‑sovereign assets The Australian

Positioning line:
Digital‑gold portfolio anchor, initiate at Buy.

3. Investment Positives

1. ETF Inflow Surge

   • ~€13 bn net inflows into spot BTC ETFs YTD Farside

   • IbIT hit €80 bn AUM by Jul 11, highest ever Farside+3CoinDesk+3Bitbo+3

2. Supply Scarcity

   • Fixed max supply of 21 M coins; 66% CAGR since halving New York Post+15Wikipedia+15Binance+15

   • Upcoming 2028 halving cuts issuance in half

3. Regulatory Momentum

   • U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve via Trump executive order (Mar 6, 2025) The Australian+11Cinco Días+11The Times of India+11bitFlyer+6Wikipedia+6Wikipedia+6

   • “Genius Act” progressing through U.S. Congress MarketWatch+4News.com.au+4New York Post+4

4. Macro Hedging Potential

   • Low correlation with equities and gold; portfolio diversification value Bitbo+3TradingView+3Cointelegraph+3

   • Central banks cutting rates globally, boosting risk assets, including BTC

5. Declining Volatility

   • Volatility trending down; relative to equity risk premium remains elevated

   • Infrastructure enhancements by major custodians improve reliability

4. Competitive / Peer Analysis

Volatility: Bitcoin >> equities; moderating trend.
Notes: Peer cap data requires Bloomberg; convert USD to EUR at market rates.

5. Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Assumptions:

• ETF inflow tapering but net positive

• Continued macro uncertainty supports allocation

• Volatility gradually declines

KPIs:

• Unique wallets/users: DATA NEEDED (source: Chainalysis)

• Institutional AUM: €80 bn → €150 bn by 2027

• Volatility path based on recent trend

6. Valuation

• Methodology: Comparison to risk-adjusted return multiples

• Bitcoin’s 12‑month forward return estimate +58% vs global equity ~10% → high risk premium justified

• Sharpe ratio remains above crypto peers (DATA NEEDED)

• Institutional trajectory supports €160k target

7. Key Risks

1. Regulatory shock (High Probability/High Impact)

   • U.S. or EU restrictions on ETFs or mining

2. ETF flow reversal (Medium/Medium)

   • Sentiment shift could retrace 30–40%

3. Macro tightening (Medium/High)

   • Central bank tightening risk asset correction

4. Technical breakdown (Medium/Low)

   • Price breach of support could trigger volatility spike

5. CBDC competition (Low/Low)

   • Long‑term digital currency alternatives

8. Appendix

• Expanded model: Includes price, volatility, ETF inflow schedules

• Cohort analysis: Daily active address cohorts by geography — DATA NEEDED (Chainalysis)

• Currency conversion: USD to EUR at 1.16

• Disclosure: Read below

Compliance & Disclaimer
This report is AI‑generated for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or an investment recommendation. Rely on independent verification before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.