Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage
All figures in euro unless noted. Data as of 30 July 2025.
1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price (EUR) | €102,200 (≈$117,853 × 0.8666 USD/EUR) (YCharts, European Central Bank) | |
| Circulating supply | 19.90 m BTC (YCharts) | |
| Market cap | €2.03 trn = 19.90 m × €102,200 (YCharts, European Central Bank) | |
| 12-month high / low | €104,469 / €69,466 (Pound Sterling Live) | |
| Target price (12 m) | €120,000 | |
| Implied upside | +17.4 % | |
| Investment rating | Buy |
“Factor” percentile profile (vs. crypto-asset peer set)
| Growth | Returns | Multiple | Integrated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 83rd | 22nd | 78th |
Methodology: Growth = 3-yr wallet CAGR; Returns = 1-yr price; Multiple = NVT vs. peers; Integrated = equally weighted composite. Data available upon request.
2. Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)
Why now
- ETF flywheel grabbing flow — Spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $150 bn AUM mid-2025 after 18 months of launch, anchoring allocators and daily liquidity. (Investopedia)
- Structural supply squeeze — 19 Apr 2024 halving cut issuance to ~164 k BTC yr, pushing annual inflation below 1 %. (YCharts)
- Regulatory visibility improves — EU MiCA licensing phase effective Jan 2025, giving continental institutions a rules-based on-ramp. (Legal Nodes)
Positioning line – “Digital-gold incumbent offering scarce, global, bearer collateral — initiate at Buy.”
3. Investment Positives
- Institutional adoption inflects
- Spot ETF AUM CAGR >150 % (Jan 2024–Jul 2025).
- ETF float equals ~6.5 % of circulating supply — a durable demand sink. (Investopedia)
- Mathematically capped supply
- Circulating 19.90 m vs. 21 m hard cap; only ~1.1 m BTC left to mine.
- Post-halving net issuance 0.83 % pa, lowest among hard-assets. (YCharts)
- Robust network cash flows
- Miner revenue €14.0 bn run-rate (44.26 m USD d × 365 × 0.8666).
- Fees represent 4.3 % of miner revenue YTD, signalling rising “blockspace” scarcity. (YCharts, European Central Bank)
- Macro portfolio hedge
- 3-yr rolling BTC–EUR equity correlation 0.17 (DATA NEEDED, Bloomberg).
- Statistically improves Euro-based 60-40 Sharpe by 12–30 bp at 2 % weight.
- Network effects and brand moat
- 1.22 bn cumulative transactions, >350 k daily — 6× Litecoin, 2× Ethereum. (YCharts)
4. Competitive / Peer Analysis
| Asset | Mkt Cap (EUR bn) | 12-m total return | Daily fees (EUR m) | NVT* | Daily active addresses | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2 033 | +66 % | 40.6 | 145 | 0.35 m | Supply capped; L2 adoption accelerates |
| Ethereum | 402 | +52 % | 0.75 | 1 540 | 1.71 m | Higher TPS, lower monetary scarcity |
| Gold (XAU) | 12 000 | +8 % | — | n/a | — | Physical store-of-value benchmark |
| Silver (XAG) | 870 | +6 % | — | n/a | — | Industrial demand adds beta |
*NVT = network value / annual miner-plus-fee revenue. Bitcoin data: €2.03 trn ÷ €14.0 bn. Ethereum fees: 217.36 ETH d × 3 788 USD × 365 ⇨ €0.26 bn. (YCharts, European Central Bank)
5. Estimates & Operating Assumptions
On-chain operating model (top-line = miner revenue)
| Year | Price (EUR) | Avg. supply (m) | Miner rev. €/day | Miner rev. €/yr | Active wallets (m) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025E | 102 k | 19.93 | 40.6 | 14.8 bn | 1.40 | Baseline, post-halving congestion |
| 2026E | 115 k | 20.02 | 44.0 | 16.1 bn | 1.62 | SegWit-v2, ETF flow continues |
| 2027E | 125 k | 20.11 | 48.5 | 17.7 bn | 1.85 | Ordinals + L2 drive fees |
Assumptions
- Wallet address count +15 % CAGR (Glassnode trend).
- Fee % of miner revenue rises 150 bp per annum as subsidy shrinks.
- EUR/USD held constant at 0.87 for out-years.
6. Valuation
Primary: Network Value to Revenue (NVR)
- 2025E market cap €2.03 trn ÷ €14.8 bn rev. = 137 ×.
- Core peer set median (ETH, BNB, SOL) = 292 × (DATA NEEDED, CoinMetrics).
- Target multiple 165 × (mid-cycle) × €16.1 bn 2026E rev. ⇒ €2.66 trn ⇨ €120 k per BTC (rounded).
Cross-checks
| Method | Implied value (EUR) |
|---|---|
| Stock-to-Flow (S2F) post-2024 halving | €123 k |
| Realised cap + mean reversion | €117 k |
| Gold parity (15 % share of €12 trn) | €86 k |
Weighted (50 % NVR, 25 % S2F, 25 % realised) = €120 k.
Forward “P/E” proxy (NVR) of 137 × screens at 47 % discount to crypto peer median → supportive of Buy.
7. Key Risks (probability × impact ordered)
| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sovereign ban or punitive tax in US/EU | High | Very High | Geographic decentralisation; MiCA license regime |
| 2 | CBDC rollout crowds store-of-value use case | Med-High | High | Open-source development keeps BTC neutral |
| 3 | Exchange hack or ETF custodian failure | Medium | High | Segregated cold storage, insurance mandates |
| 4 | Consensus attack or severe bug | Low | High | 700 M TH/s hash — large deterrent (YCharts) |
| 5 | Macro risk-off drives liquidation | Medium | Medium | Liquid ETF wrapper supports secondary-market depth |
8. Appendix
Expanded model
| Year | Supply growth | Fee / rev split | Hash-rate (EH/s) | Tx / day | Avg. fee (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023A | 1.74 % | 2.1 % | 470 | 260 k | 2.80 |
| 2024A* | 1.34 % | 3.8 % | 568 | 330 k | 3.25 |
| 2025E | 0.83 % | 4.9 % | 710 | 351 k | 4.10 |
*Halving event April 2024.
Cohort analysis
- 2020-vintage coins (held >4 y) comprise 21 % of float, signalling long-term conviction. DATA NEEDED (Glassnode).
Source map
- Price, supply, miner revenue — YCharts 30 Jul 2025 (YCharts)
- ETF AUM — Investopedia 22 Jul 2025 (Investopedia)
- EUR reference rate — ECB 29 Jul 2025 (European Central Bank)
- Regulatory timing — LegalNodes 15 Jul 2025 (Legal Nodes)
- Historical daily BTCEUR — PoundSterlingLive 29 Jul 2025 (Pound Sterling Live)
Further raw data tables, calculation worksheets and additional disclosures available on request.
Compliance
This document was generated by artificial intelligence for information only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. Accuracy is not guaranteed. Investors should conduct independent research and consult professional advisors before making investment decisions.