1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin vs Euro (BTC_EUR)
• Current price: ≈ €100,080 as of Aug 9, 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
• 12-month target price: €120,000
• Implied upside: 19.90%
  • Calculation: ((€120,000 ÷ €100,080) − 1) × 100 = 19.90%.
• Investment rating: Buy
• 52-week range (EUR): €47,447 to €105,812. (Yahoo Finance)
• Market cap (EUR): ≈ €1.996 trillion. (Binance)
• Circulating supply: 19,904,053 BTC (max 21,000,000). (CoinMarketCap)
• Block reward: 3.125 BTC post-halving on Apr 20, 2024. (CoinGecko)
• Annual issuance rate (est.): ≈ 0.83%
  • Math: 3.125 BTC/block × 144 blocks/day = 450 BTC/day, ≈ 164,250 BTC/year. 164,250 ÷ 19,904,053 ≈ 0.83%. Sources for halving and block cadence. (CoinGecko, Investopedia)
• Hash rate: ≈ 870.5 EH/s (Aug 8, 2025, 7-day). (YCharts)
• Fees per day: ≈ $0.66 million on Aug 8, 2025. (YCharts)
• FX used for USD→EUR: EUR 1 = USD 1.1648 (ECB, Aug 8, 2025). (European Central Bank)

Factor profile (analyst composite, 0–100): Growth 80, Returns 70, Multiple 55, Integration 75. Methodology in Appendix. (Analyst estimate)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now (3 bullets)

• ETF flywheel. US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached about $146.5B AUM by Aug 1, 2025, roughly 6.5% of BTC market cap, with providers guiding to further 2025 inflows. We see continued structural demand from retirement platforms and EU ETPs under MiCA. (Fidelity Digital Assets, 21Shares)
• Post-halving supply squeeze. New supply is ~0.83% p.a. after the Apr 2024 halving, the lowest in BTC history, while institutional access expands. (CoinGecko)
• Macro diversification. Gold’s market value is ≈ $23.2T vs BTC ≈ $2.32T. A modest share-gain vs gold supports our 12-month target. (Companies Market Cap, CoinMarketCap)

Positioning line
“Digital scarcity with accelerating institutional rails. Initiate at Buy with €120,000 12-month target.”

3) Investment Positives

1. ETF and ETP adoption unlocks new demand cohorts
   • US spot Bitcoin ETF AUM ≈ $146.5B (Aug 1, 2025), ≈ 6.46% of BTC market cap. Continued 2025 net inflows projected by issuers could take combined ETF AUM toward $200B+ by year-end. (Fidelity Digital Assets, 21Shares)
   • EU ETPs are scaling under MiCA. Example: 21Shares discloses multi-billion AUM across platforms, EU crypto ETPs around $16B as of Jan 2025. (GlobeNewswire, CoinShares)
   • Mechanism: ETF demand removes float while issuance slows post-halving, creating favorable flow-to-stock dynamics. (Analyst)
2. Programmatic scarcity, now scarcer
   • Block reward fell to 3.125 BTC on Apr 20, 2024; estimated 450 BTC/day issuance, ≈ 0.83% annualized. (CoinGecko, Investopedia)
   • Scarcity math is transparent and auditable, unlike discretionary commodity supply. (Analyst)
3. Network security and resilience at ATH territory
   • Hash rate ~870.5 EH/s (Aug 8, 2025 7-day), up ~50% y/y, reflecting robust miner investment and security budget, mitigating 51%-attack risk. (YCharts)
4. Maturing volatility profile
   • Institutional research shows BTC realized volatility declined vs early cycles and can be lower than dozens of S&P 500 names in certain windows, supporting broader mandates. (Fidelity Digital Assets)
5. Regulatory clarity in Europe
   • MiCA stablecoin rules effective Jun 30, 2024. Broader CASP licensing phasing through 2025 under ESMA and local NCAs. ESMA warned CASPs in Jul 2025 to avoid misleading regulatory claims, underscoring serious supervision rather than blanket hostility. (Binance, Reuters)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Gold (monetary store-of-value proxy)

Sources: BTC EUR price and 52-week range (Yahoo, CMC). BTC market cap (Binance). Gold market cap (CompaniesMarketCap). EURUSD (ECB). Hash rate, fees (YCharts). Gold spot (TradingEconomics/Reuters). (CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, Binance, Companies Market Cap, European Central Bank, YCharts, Trading Economics, Reuters)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions (12–36 months)

We model BTC_EUR price drivers through three pillars: flow-to-stock, macro-hedge share-gains vs gold, and network fundamentals.

Baselines and constants

• Starting point (Aug 9, 2025): BTC_EUR ≈ €100,080; BTC USD ≈ $116,689; circulating 19.90M BTC. (CoinMarketCap)
• Issuance: 450 BTC/day, 164,250 BTC/year through halving-to-halving. (CoinGecko)
• FX: EURUSD 1.1648 (ECB, Aug 8, 2025) for USD→EUR conversions. (European Central Bank)

A) Flow-to-stock from ETFs and ETPs

• US spot ETF AUM: ~$146.5B (Aug 1, 2025). Working assumption: net inflows add $55B in 2025 per 21Shares, then $40B in 2026, $25B in 2027. (Fidelity Digital Assets, 21Shares)
• Europe ETP AUM: starting point ≈ $16B (Jan 2025); assume +$6B in 2025, +$8B in 2026, +$6B in 2027 as MiCA licensing spreads. (CoinShares)
• Net absorption: Analyst assumption that 70% of gross ETF/ETP AUM growth reflects net BTC purchased versus price appreciation; sensitivity shown in Appendix.

B) Share-gain vs gold (store-of-value lens)

• Gold market cap: ~$23.2T as of Aug 7–8, 2025 context. BTC ≈ $2.32T, or ~10% of gold. (Companies Market Cap, MacroMicro, CoinMarketCap)
• Base case: BTC share rises to 12% of gold in 12 months, then 13% in year 2, 14% in year 3. (Analyst)

C) Network fundamentals

• Hash rate remains > 800 EH/s; fees/day normalize between $0.5–1.5M depending on congestion and L2 adoption. Evidence of maturation from volatility work. (YCharts, Fidelity Digital Assets)

12-month price target derivation (primary)

Gold-share method

• Inputs: Gold mkt cap $23.222T; target BTC share 12% => target BTC mkt cap $2.786T. Circulating supply in 12 months ≈ 20.07M BTC (19.90M + 0.164M). Price USD = 2.786T ÷ 20.07M = $138,858. Convert at 1.1648 => €119,212. Round to €120,000. (Companies Market Cap, CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank)

Cross-checks

• NVT multiple cross-check: requires 90-day adjusted transfer volume. DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: Blockchain.com “Estimated Transaction Value,” Glassnode Studio “Adjusted Transfer Volume.” (Blockchain.com)
• ETF absorption cross-check: If combined US+EU ETF AUM rises by $60B in the next 12 months and 70% is net new BTC purchasing, implied demand ≈ $42B versus post-halving net new supply of ≈ 164k BTC, indicating supportive flow-to-stock dynamics. Baseline AUM per above. (21Shares, CoinShares)

3-year scenario framework (EUR end-period spot)

All scenario outputs reflect analyst estimates using sources above for baselines.

6) Valuation

Primary method: Store-of-value share vs gold

• Rationale: BTC’s dominant use case is monetary reserve asset. Unlike equities, earnings-based multiples are inapplicable. Using gold as reference aligns with observed investor behavior. Inputs and math detailed in Section 5 and Appendix. (Companies Market Cap)

Cross-checks

• NVT: Fair value range would be NVT × adjusted transfer volume. 5-year median NVT and current adjusted transfer volume are required to quantify. DATA NEEDED. Suggested: Blockchain.com NVT, Glassnode. (Blockchain.com)
• “Fees yield” heuristic: fees/day to mkt cap is very low at present (~$0.66M/day vs ~$2.32T mkt cap), so an “earnings yield” lens is not decision-useful today. (YCharts, CoinMarketCap)

Result: €120,000 12-month target price.

7) Key Risks

Ordered by probability × impact:

1. Regulatory implementation risk in EU and mis-selling enforcement
   • ESMA warned in Jul 2025 about CASPs potentially misleading clients about regulatory status. Marketing clamps or license delays could slow EU ETP distribution. (Reuters)
2. ETF flow reversal
   • If spot ETF inflows stall or reverse, the post-halving flow-to-stock support fades. Current AUM context per Aug 1, 2025. (Fidelity Digital Assets)
3. Macro and FX
   • A sharp EUR rally or USD squeeze can translate into BTC_EUR volatility. ECB reference suggests EUR strength vs USD in mid-2025; reversals change EUR targets. (European Central Bank)
4. Miner economics stress
   • Post-halving cost pressure can cause miner selling or consolidation. Estimated all-in production cost proxies near $92k in early Aug 2025 imply tight margins at times.
5. Technology or security incident
   • L1 consensus bug, major custodian failure, or bridge exploit could impair confidence. (Analyst)
6. Competition from gold and real yields
   • If real yields rise and gold leadership persists near record levels, BTC’s share-gain path may be slower. Gold polling and spot context mid-2025. (Reuters)
7. Throughput and L2 optics
   • Public Lightning capacity has fluctuated; headlines about declining BTC-denominated capacity can be misconstrued as weakening adoption even if usage mix changes. (CryptoSlate)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded model math

12-month target (gold-share method)

• Gold market cap (CompaniesMarketCap): $23.222T. (Companies Market Cap)
• Target BTC share: 12% (Analyst).
• Target BTC market cap: $2.7866T.
• Projected circulating supply in 12 months: ≈ 20.07M BTC = current 19.904M + 0.164M issuance. (CoinMarketCap)
• Implied USD price: $138,858 = $2.7866T ÷ 20.07M.
• FX to EUR (ECB 1.1648): €119,212. Round to €120,000. (European Central Bank)

Issuance math

• Post-halving reward: 3.125 BTC. Blocks/day ≈ 144. Issuance/day ≈ 450 BTC. Issuance/year ≈ 164,250 BTC. Issuance rate ≈ 0.83% vs current supply. (CoinGecko, Investopedia)

ETF/ETP framework

• US spot ETF AUM: $146.48B (Aug 1, 2025); Europe crypto ETP AUM ~$16B (Jan 2025). Base case: US +$55B 2025, Europe +$6B 2025, then slower. (Fidelity Digital Assets, CoinShares, 21Shares)

Network metrics references

• Hash rate ~870.5 EH/s 7-day average Aug 8, 2025. Fees/day $0.66M Aug 8, 2025. Transactions/day context available. (YCharts)

B) Radar methodology (“Factor profile”)

• Growth (0–100): composite of 12-month EUR price change, ETF AUM growth rate, transactions/day trend, and address metrics (where available). Data sources: CMC, Yahoo Finance, ETF issuers, YCharts. Scores scaled within crypto macro assets. (Analyst) (CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, 21Shares)
• Returns: risk-adjusted framework using realized vol context. (Fidelity Digital Assets)
• Multiple: inverse of NVT percentile vs 5-year history. Requires adjusted transfer volume. DATA NEEDED. Suggested: Blockchain.com, Glassnode. (Blockchain.com)
• Integration: ETF/ETP penetration as share of BTC market cap, custodian breadth, MiCA progress. (Fidelity Digital Assets, Reuters)

C) Cohort notes

• Institutional: US retirement channel interest in alternatives including crypto ETFs expanded in 2025 alongside ETF industry growth. Context on ETF boom and distribution rails. (MarketWatch)
• EU retail via brokers: EU ETP listings across Xetra, SIX, Euronext, and others continue to grow post-MiCA; new entrants like iShares Bitcoin ETP launched in Europe in Mar 2025. (Cinco Días)
• Lightning users: public capacity optics can understate actual usage due to private channels; multiple viewpoints noted. (CryptoSlate)

D) Regulatory timeline (EU)

• Jun 30, 2024: MiCA stablecoin provisions live. 2024–2025: CASP regimes rolling in; ESMA and national regulators active on conduct. (Binance, Reuters)

E) Additional data requests (for future model refresh)

• Adjusted transfer volume, NVT median: DATA NEEDED. Source: Glassnode, Coin Metrics, Blockchain.com. (Blockchain.com)
• ETH and other peer market caps in EUR, 1-year returns: DATA NEEDED. Source: CoinMarketCap ETH/EUR, Yahoo Finance.
• ETF daily flow time series: DATA NEEDED. Source: issuers, Bloomberg, LSEG Lipper.
• Lightning throughput and channel quality metrics: DATA NEEDED. Source: Glassnode, mempool.space.

Disclosures and important information

This report is for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. It does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Digital assets are volatile and can result in total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data and third-party content cited herein are believed reliable but are not guaranteed. Generated by AI for research illustration. Do not rely on this content for investment decisions. Consider seeking independent professional advice.

Sources cited:

• Prices, market cap, supply: CoinMarketCap BTC pages, Aug 9, 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
• BTC EUR market cap: Binance price page, Aug 9, 2025. (Binance)
• 52-week range: Yahoo Finance BTC-EUR, Aug 2025. (Yahoo Finance)
• Hash rate, fees: YCharts, Aug 8, 2025. (YCharts)
• Halving and reward: CoinGecko Halving page; Investopedia overview, 2024–2025. (CoinGecko, Investopedia)
• ETF AUM and projections: Cointelegraph citing SoSoValue, Aug 1, 2025; 21Shares research note, May 5, 2025. (Fidelity Digital Assets, 21Shares)
• EU ETP market: CoinShares note, Jan 2025; 21Shares corporate disclosures. (CoinShares, GlobeNewswire)
• MiCA timeline and ESMA stance: Goodwin (Jul 2, 2024), Dechert (Jan 8, 2025), Reuters (Jul 11, 2025). (Binance, Reuters)
• Gold market cap and pricing context: CompaniesMarketCap, MacroMicro, Reuters and TradingEconomics (late Jul–Aug 2025). (Companies Market Cap, MacroMicro, Reuters, Trading Economics)
• Volatility research: Fidelity Digital Assets, May 1, 2024. (Fidelity Digital Assets)