Initiation of Coverage: Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR)

Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Investment Recommendation: OVERWEIGHT
• Current Price: €58,086
• 12-Month Price Target: €100,000
• Potential Upside: 72.18%
  • Calculation: (€100,000 – €58,086) / €58,086 ≈ 0.7218

Current Market Data (Source: CoinGecko)

• Market Cap: €1,160,621,523,288.60
• 24h Volume: €44,560,297,472.52
• 24h Change: -2.25%

12-Month Forecasts

• Forecasted Price (2025E): €100,000
• Forecasted Market Cap (2025E): €1,998,100,000,000
  • Calculation: Current Circulating Supply (€1,160,621,523,288.60 / €58,086 ≈ 19,981,000 BTC) * €100,000

Investment Thesis

We initiate coverage on Bitcoin (BTC_EUR) with an OVERWEIGHT rating and a 12-month price target of €100,000. Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is establishing itself as a digital store of value amidst increasing macroeconomic uncertainty and a landscape of expanding institutional adoption. The recent market correction presents a compelling entry point, aligning with sentiment from industry leaders that prices below certain thresholds offer significant opportunity (Bitwise CEO, Feb 2026).

• Digital Gold Narrative: Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, analogous to digital gold, particularly relevant in an environment of increasing sovereign debt and monetary expansion.
• Institutional Integration: The approval and success of Spot Bitcoin ETFs have unlocked significant institutional capital, providing regulated access and enhanced liquidity. This trend is in its nascent stages and is expected to drive sustained demand (Kitco, Feb 2026).
• Scarcity & Halving Dynamics: Bitcoin’s programmatic supply cap of 21 million units and its periodic “halving” events (which reduce the rate of new supply issuance) create a deflationary asset class. The most recent halving event in early 2024 is expected to exert upward pressure on price as supply tightens against growing demand.
• Network Security & Resilience: Bitcoin’s decentralized architecture, robust hash rate, and battle-tested blockchain provide unparalleled security and censorship resistance, reinforcing its long-term viability.
• Compelling Valuation: Despite recent volatility, our analysis suggests Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to its long-term growth trajectory and fundamental strengths, with several analysts reaffirming ambitious price targets (Bernstein, Feb 2026).

Investment Positives

We believe the following factors will drive Bitcoin’s outperformance:

• 1. Scarcity & Deflationary Supply Schedule: Bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million coins and fixed, predictable issuance schedule, accentuated by the recent halving, create a powerful scarcity narrative. This inherent deflationary characteristic is a significant differentiator in an inflationary global economy, directly supporting its store of value proposition.
• 2. Accelerating Institutional Adoption & Access: The launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs has been a game-changer, integrating Bitcoin into traditional financial infrastructure. This provides a compliant, accessible, and liquid avenue for institutional investors, wealth managers, and corporate treasuries to gain exposure, significantly broadening the investor base and deepening market liquidity (Kitco, Feb 2026).
• 3. Macroeconomic Tailwinds for Digital Gold: Persistent global inflation, geopolitical instability, and expansive fiscal policies in major economies enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized, non-sovereign store of value. It offers an alternative asset class uncorrelated to traditional markets, attracting capital seeking inflation hedges and portfolio diversification.
• 4. Robust Network Security & Decentralization: Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism, supported by a vast global network of miners, makes it the most secure and resilient blockchain. This decentralization minimizes single points of failure and censorship risks, fostering long-term trust and adoption.
• 5. Ongoing Technological Development & Scalability Solutions: While Bitcoin’s base layer prioritizes security, layers built on top, such as the Lightning Network, continue to enhance its utility for faster and cheaper transactions. Further innovation around sidechains and other scaling solutions expands its potential use cases beyond a simple store of value.

Competitive/Peer Analysis

Bitcoin vs. Gold

Bitcoin is often dubbed “digital gold” due to shared attributes but offers distinct advantages.

• Similarities: Both are scarce assets (limited supply for Gold via mining, fixed supply for Bitcoin), perceived as inflation hedges, and traditionally seen as safe havens.
• Bitcoin Advantages:
  • Portability & Divisibility: Easily transferable across borders, highly divisible into satoshis.
  • Verifiability: Transparent and immutable ledger makes counterfeiting impossible.
  • Decentralization: Not subject to confiscation or control by any single entity.
  • Digital Native: Seamless integration into the digital economy.
• Gold Advantages:
  • Longer Track Record: Thousands of years as a store of value.
  • Lower Volatility: Generally more stable price movements than Bitcoin.
  • Physical Tangibility: Preferred by some for its physical form.
• Conclusion: Bitcoin offers a 21st-century digital alternative to gold, with superior characteristics for the modern economy, positioning it to capture a growing share of the store-of-value market.

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum (ETH)

Bitcoin and Ethereum represent different fundamental value propositions within the crypto ecosystem.

• Bitcoin (BTC): “Digital Gold” / Store of Value
  • Primary Use Case: Sound money, store of value, medium of exchange.
  • Design Philosophy: Maximize security, decentralization, and predictability. Simpler scripting language.
  • Monetary Policy: Fixed supply, deflationary by design.
  • Competitive Edge: Unquestioned market leader as a decentralized, scarce, and immutable asset.
• Ethereum (ETH): “Digital Oil” / Programmable Blockchain
  • Primary Use Case: Platform for decentralized applications (dApps), smart contracts, NFTs, DeFi.
  • Design Philosophy: Focus on programmability, scalability, and ecosystem development.
  • Monetary Policy: Issuance adjusted post-Merge, burn mechanism introduced to make it deflationary under high network usage.
  • Competitive Edge: Dominant smart contract platform with a vast developer ecosystem and significant innovation across various Web3 sectors.
• Conclusion: While both are leading cryptocurrencies, they serve distinct purposes. Bitcoin is a foundational layer for digital scarcity, while Ethereum is the foundational layer for decentralized computation. We view them as complementary rather than direct substitutes, each appealing to different investment objectives.

Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Forecasting for Bitcoin involves assessing network growth, adoption rates, and macro factors rather than traditional corporate financials. Our forward estimates for key metrics are as follows:

Price Forecast (Year-End, EUR)

• Current: €58,086
• 2025E: €100,000
• 2026E: €125,000
• 2027E: €140,000

Key Network Metrics & Assumptions

• Circulating Supply (Million BTC)
  • 2024E: 19.68 (Based on current issuance rate post-halving)
  • 2025E: 19.80
  • 2026E: 19.90
  • 2027E: 20.00
  • Assumption: Supply increases predictably, approaching the 21M cap asymptotically.
• Network Hash Rate (Exahashes per Second, EH/s)
  • 2024E: 650 EH/s (Current ~600, expecting continued growth)
  • 2025E: 750 EH/s
  • 2026E: 875 EH/s
  • 2027E: 1000 EH/s
  • Assumption: Continued investment in mining infrastructure driven by rising prices and improving energy efficiency.
• Daily Transaction Volume (Average, € Billion)
  • 2024E: €50 Bn (Current 24h volume ~€44.5 Bn, expecting growth)
  • 2025E: €60 Bn
  • 2026E: €70 Bn
  • 2027E: €80 Bn
  • Assumption: Increased utility, institutional adoption, and growth of Layer 2 solutions like Lightning Network.

Valuation

Traditional valuation methodologies (e.g., DCF) are not directly applicable to Bitcoin due to its lack of recurring revenue, earnings, or cash flows in a corporate sense. Instead, we utilize crypto-native metrics and macro-economic frameworks.

Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio

• Concept: Similar to a P/E ratio for a company, NVT compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization (network value) to the value of transactions settled on its blockchain. A high NVT implies that the network value is outpacing its utility/transaction volume, suggesting overvaluation, and vice-versa.
• Current State: Bitcoin’s recent price correction, while transaction volumes remain robust (driven by ETF inflows and broader adoption), has brought the NVT ratio closer to its historical average or even slightly below for longer-term averages, indicating a potentially fair or undervalued entry point.
• Implication: As transaction volumes and network utility continue to grow, a stable or slightly increasing NVT ratio would support higher valuations. We expect the increasing institutional usage (not fully captured by on-chain transactions alone due to custodial solutions) to eventually reflect in an expanding NVT.

Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model

• Concept: The S2F model posits a relationship between Bitcoin’s scarcity (stock – existing supply) and its new supply (flow – annual issuance). It suggests that assets with higher stock-to-flow ratios (i.e., greater scarcity) tend to have higher value.
• Post-Halving Impact: The recent halving event significantly reduced Bitcoin’s “flow,” dramatically increasing its stock-to-flow ratio. Historically, halvings have been followed by significant price appreciation due to this supply shock.
• Relevance: While not a perfect predictive model, S2F provides a useful framework for understanding Bitcoin’s scarcity premium and its long-term price trajectory, particularly after supply-shock events like halvings. It reinforces our belief in Bitcoin’s long-term upward potential.

Network Effects and Metcalfe’s Law

• Concept: Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n^2). For Bitcoin, network value can be proxied by active addresses, hash rate, and overall adoption.
• Growth Drivers: Increasing global adoption, propelled by easier access via ETFs, growing retail interest, and integration into payments infrastructure, continuously expands Bitcoin’s network. Each new participant adds exponential value to the overall network.
• Implication: As Bitcoin’s user base and utility grow, its network effects strengthen, solidifying its dominant position and driving higher intrinsic value.

Key Risks

• Regulatory Uncertainty: Governments globally may impose restrictive regulations, outright bans, or introduce unfavorable taxation policies on cryptocurrencies. Evolving regulatory landscapes could impact investor sentiment and market access.
• Market Volatility: Bitcoin is known for extreme price swings, which can be driven by market sentiment, macroeconomic news, regulatory announcements, or large-scale liquidations. Investors must be prepared for significant drawdowns.
• Competition from Other Cryptocurrencies & CBDCs: While dominant, Bitcoin faces competition from other digital assets offering different value propositions or improved technical features. The emergence of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could also present an alternative, albeit centralized, digital asset.
• Technological Risks & Security Exploits: Although Bitcoin’s protocol has proven highly resilient, unforeseen vulnerabilities, bugs, or advances in quantum computing (long-term threat) could theoretically compromise its security.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: A sustained global recession, aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks, or a flight to traditional safe-haven assets could reduce investor appetite for speculative and volatile assets like Bitcoin.
• Environmental Concerns (ESG): The energy consumption associated with Bitcoin mining raises environmental concerns. Increasing scrutiny and potential regulations on energy-intensive Proof-of-Work systems could negatively impact mining operations and public perception.

Appendix

Sources

• CoinGecko (Live Market Data)
• Tavily Search (Live Market News)
• Kitco: “Crypto SWOT: Spot Bitcoin ETFs highlight sensitive institutional demand” (February 2026)
• Bernstein (via The Block): “Bernstein reaffirms $150K price target citing ‘weakest Bitcoin bear case in history'” (February 2026)
• Polymarket (via 24/7 Wall St.): “Polymarket Called Bitcoin’s Crash to $60K. Now It Predicts an $85K Bitcoin Recovery” (February 2026)
• Keshav S Pandya (via X): “Bitwise CEO said yesterday that Bitcoin under $70K gives opportunity” (February 2026)
• Seeking Alpha: “What is next for Bitcoin after its recent plunge?” (February 2026)
• General market knowledge and industry estimates (2024/2025) for forward-looking assumptions.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made based on your own assessment of your financial circumstances and investment objectives. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Forecasts and estimates are based on current market conditions and expert opinions and are subject to change without notice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk, including the risk of complete loss.

This report was generated by an AI assistant based on provided live market data and news.

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