Bitcoin vs Euro (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin vs Euro (BTC_EUR).
• Current spot (indicative): €95,424.69 per BTC at 12:57 CEST on 3 Sep 2025. Source shows BTC in EUR on Coinbase.
• 12-month target price: €127,032. Calculation and methodology below.
• Implied upside: 33.1 percent. Calculation: ((€127,031.9963 ÷ €95,424.69) − 1) × 100.
• Investment rating: Buy.
• Market cap: about €1.907 trillion using USD market cap ≈ $2.2227 trillion and ECB EURUSD reference rate 1.1653 for 3 Sep 2025. Calculation: $2,222,743,306,503 ÷ 1.1653.
• Circulating supply: 19.92 million BTC on 2 Sep 2025.
• 1-year total return: 88.7 percent in USD terms as displayed by CoinGecko’s 1-year series.
• Network security: Hash rate 1.038 billion TH/s on 1 Sep 2025, up about 64 percent year over year.
• Average transaction fee: $1.77 per transaction on 1 Sep 2025.
• Post-halving block reward: 3.125 BTC since block 840,000 on 20 Apr 2024.

“Factor profile” (author estimates, 0 to 100 percentile vs large-cap crypto peers):

• Growth 70.
• Returns 75.
• Multiple 55.
• Integrated percentile 67.
  Method: composite of 1-year USD return, 30-day on-chain activity momentum, valuation proxies (NVT and MVRV), liquidity depth. Author estimates.

12-month price chart (proxy: BTC-USD)

Note: chart is BTC-USD. We use it as a proxy for BTC_EUR given strong short-term co-movement. For all valuation and comps we translate to EUR using ECB reference rates.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — three bullets

1. ETF flywheel and institutional access: US spot Bitcoin ETFs show cumulative net inflows of about $54.6 billion since launch. European ETPs continue to scale and lower fees. We expect flows to remain positive as more mandates open.
2. Scarcity tightened post-halving: issuance dropped to 3.125 BTC per block at block 840,000. With about 19.92 million BTC mined, new supply is structurally constrained.
3. Macro tailwind from real-asset hedges: gold made fresh all-time highs above $3,500 per ounce in early September. A larger pool of “hard-asset” allocators supports our relative-value cross-check for Bitcoin.

Positioning line
“Digital scarcity at scale: initiate BTC_EUR at Buy.”

3) Investment Positives

1. Institutionalization via ETFs and ETPs

• US spot ETFs: cumulative net inflows ≈ $54.55 billion, with large gross inflows into IBIT offsetting GBTC outflows; total across issuers in the Farside tracker. Thesis: continued wallet share gains from wirehouse platforms and OCIOs.
• US spot ETF AUM reached about $152.7 billion in July 2025, up 13.9 percent month on month. Supports the view that new wallets and accounts are still onboarding.
• Europe fee compression: WisdomTree’s European physical Bitcoin ETP management fee waived down to 0.15 percent through 31 Dec 2025, structurally improving after-fee returns for EU investors.

2. Security and economic throughput improving

• Hash rate printed ~1.038 billion TH/s on 1 Sep 2025, up ~64 percent year on year, underscoring miner investment and network security.
• Daily transactions near ~0.60 million on 1 Sep 2025 and average fee ~$1.77 on 1 Sep 2025 show healthy capacity despite inscriptions cycles.
• Active addresses: 30-day snapshot in late July 2025 at ~722k daily active addresses per VanEck, a useful proxy for on-chain usage.

3. Scarcity and programmatic supply

• Fourth halving executed at block 840,000 in April 2024. Block subsidy now 3.125 BTC. Roughly 19.92 million BTC outstanding, with less than 1.1 million left over the next century.

4. Macro diversification

• Gold at new records in early September 2025 highlights demand for scarce assets amid policy uncertainty. We view Bitcoin as a high beta to the “digital gold” theme in Europe, where MiCA and targeted investor protections are operationalizing a regulated access path.

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. We convert market caps to EUR using ECB reference rate 1.1653 USD per EUR for 3 Sep 2025.

• BTC market cap: $2,222.7 billion ÷ 1.1653 = €1,907 billion.
• ETH market cap: $526.4 billion ÷ 1.1653 = €451.7 billion.
• SOL market cap: $113.95 billion ÷ 1.1653 = €97.79 billion.

Other reference KPIs:

• BTC 1-year return: 88.7 percent.
• ETH transactions per day: ~1.721 million per YCharts related indicator snapshot.
• BTC transactions per day: ~598,757 on 1 Sep 2025.
• BTC average fee per transaction: $1.77 on 1 Sep 2025. ETH average fee: ~$0.43 per the same panel.

Notes: Fill ETH and SOL 1-year returns from CoinGecko historical series for exact comparison. DATA NEEDED: CoinGecko pages for ETH and SOL 1-yr change on 3 Sep 2025. Suggested sources: CoinGecko ETH and SOL price pages.

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

We frame Bitcoin as a monetary network. We model 3 key drivers into a 3-year view for BTC_EUR:
A) net spot ETF/ETP flows, B) issuance and miner behavior post-halving, C) a macro cross-check vs gold’s above-ground value.

Driver snapshots and assumptions

• ETF/ETP flows: US spot net inflows ≈ $54.55B to date; EU ETP growth with fee reductions increases addressable demand. Base case assumes net incremental global ETF/ETP inflows of $60B over the next 12 months, then $40B and $25B in the following two years. Rationale: runway across wirehouses, RIAs, and EU private banks. Data point references: Farside daily flow tracker, 21Shares monthly flows.
• Issuance: supply issuance at 3.125 BTC every ~10 minutes. Our base assumes issuance is partially offset by long-term holding as miner sell pressure normalizes at lower subsidy.
• On-chain activity: baseline healthy. We hold BTC daily transactions near 0.55–0.65 million in the next 12 months with average fee range $1–$5 barring congestion spikes. Anchors: YCharts recent prints.
• Macro cross-check vs gold: spot gold at $3,530–$3,550 per ounce in early September implies a very large total stock value. We use a working total above-ground gold value of ~$24.56 trillion for illustration. Calculation uses $3,532 per ounce and a 216,265-tonne above-ground stock assumption. Source for price: Reuters. DATA NEEDED for tonnage: World Gold Council above-ground stock table.

Price model — 12-month target and 3-year scenario grid

Method 1: Gold-share cross-check

• Base: Bitcoin reaches 12 percent of the above-ground gold value over 12 months. Implied BTC market cap = 0.12 × $24.56T = $2.947T. Implied price = $2.947T ÷ 19.92M ≈ $147,941 per BTC. At ECB rate 1.1653 USD per EUR on 3 Sep 2025, implied price ≈ €127,032. Calculations explicit above.
• Bull: 15 percent share implies $3.684T market cap. Price ≈ $184,900. EUR ≈ €158,649 at 1.1653.
• Bear: 8 percent share implies $1.965T market cap. Price ≈ $98,666. EUR ≈ €84,677.

Method 2: On-chain valuation cross-check

• Reference indicators: NVT ratio and MVRV Z-score. Recent public dashboards show MVRV Z-score near 2.1–2.2 in late August to early September. Interpretation: not at extreme bubble readings; supports a mid-cycle stance. We use this as a sanity check, not a sole driver.

Operating view for key KPIs
Author assumptions given observable anchors and historical elasticities:

6) Valuation

Primary method: Cross-asset share of gold’s above-ground value
Rationale: Bitcoin competes with monetary hedges for portfolio slots. We avoid fragile single-metric models and use a relative stock-of-value anchor.

• Inputs: gold spot around $3,530–$3,550 per ounce in early September 2025. Working assumption of above-ground stock yields ~$24.56T value. DATA NEEDED for tonnage confirmation from WGC.
• Base 12 percent share yields a 12-month target of €127,032 per BTC (see Section 5). Implied upside 33.1 percent from current Coinbase EUR price print at 12:57 CEST.

Cross-checks

A) On-chain valuation

• MVRV Z-score around ~2.1–2.2 in late Aug–early Sep. Historically, cycle peaks print >6. Current level is not extended. This supports the notion of further upside potential with macro and flow support.

B) Flow-based sanity

• US spot ETF net inflows ≈ $54.55B to date. If we assume net inflows add another $60B in 12 months and 50 percent is net new demand not displacing other holders, price elasticity under constrained issuance can support the base case. Data point source for flows: Farside tracker.

C) Comparative liquidity and activity

• Daily transactions near ~0.60M, with low average fees, indicate headroom for further utility even at higher prices.

Comment on conventional multiples
P/E and EV/EBITDA are not applicable. For completeness, an NVT-style multiple can be used, but we avoid presenting a firm NVT target due to inconsistent public methodologies across vendors. DATA NEEDED: standardized NVT time series and medians from Coin Metrics or Glassnode.

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact:

1. Regulatory and policy

• Shifts in crypto ETP rules, AML/KYC enforcement, or taxation in the EU or US can dampen flows and pricing. MiCA implementation phases continue across 2024–2025 under ESMA technical standards.

2. ETF flow reversal

• A risk-off macro regime or fee wars could trigger net outflows from spot ETFs. US spot flows have been volatile on a daily basis even within a strong cumulative picture.

3. Macro drawdown risk

• A sharp rise in real yields or unexpected hawkish pivots can compress demand for non-yielding assets. Gold’s surge shows how macro can cut both ways.

4. Network economics

• Post-halving miner revenues rely more on fees. A prolonged period of low fees could stress weaker miners and impact hash rate. Current fees are low; miner capex plans assume price support.

5. Technological and security

• Consensus layer vulnerabilities or major client bugs could harm confidence. Hash rate strength mitigates, not eliminates, risk.

6. ESG and energy

• Bitcoin’s electricity use remains under scrutiny. Cambridge’s CBECI tracks consumption and emissions. Policy proposals, including taxes on mining, could worsen sentiment.

7. Competition for blockspace

• Ethereum and Solana continue to scale and capture transactional activity. ETH runs ≈1.7M transactions per day vs BTC’s ~0.6M. This may entrench BTC as store-of-value rather than high-throughput medium.

8) Appendix

A) Expanded scenario grid and calculations

Gold-share method (12-month horizon)

• Gold value assumption: ~$24.56T (working figure). Price input: $3,532 per oz in early Sep. DATA NEEDED: WGC above-ground stock to finalize tonnage input.
• Base 12 percent share:
  • Market cap = $24.56T × 0.12 = $2.947T.
  • Price per BTC = $2.947T ÷ 19.92M = $147,941.
  • EUR conversion at ECB 1.1653 = €127,032.
• Bull 15 percent share:
  • Market cap = $3.684T.
  • Price ≈ $184,900.
  • EUR ≈ €158,649 at 1.1653.
• Bear 8 percent share:
  • Market cap = $1.965T.
  • Price ≈ $98,666.
  • EUR ≈ €84,677 at 1.1653.

B) Network activity reference set

• BTC transactions per day: 598,757 on 1 Sep 2025.
• BTC average fee: $1.77 per tx on 1 Sep 2025.
• ETH transactions per day: ~1.721M reference metric.
• Hash rate: 1.038 billion TH/s on 1 Sep 2025.
• Lightning capacity trend: public capacity peaked above ~5,400 BTC in late 2023 and was about ~4,281 BTC in mid-Feb 2024; recent public dashboards show lower capacity in 2025. These are directional checks only.

C) ETF and ETP reference set

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs cumulative net inflows ≈ $54.55B as of late Aug 2025.
• US spot ETF AUM ≈ $152.7B in July 2025.
• EU ETPs: product pages and notices confirm fees and structures. Examples include 21Shares ABTC and WisdomTree BTCW.

D) Method notes and data gaps

• For standardized NVT and MVRV time series, use Coin Metrics or Glassnode dashboards with entity-adjusted methodologies. DATA NEEDED for point-in-time medians to present an explicit “forward NVT” multiple and an implied valuation range. Suggested sources: Coin Metrics State of the Network reports, Glassnode Studio.
• For gold above-ground stock tonnage, use World Gold Council “Gold Facts” tables for end-year tonnage and compute implied value using Reuters spot price prints for the date of analysis. DATA NEEDED: WGC page link.

Compliance, methodology, and sources

• Pricing and market cap data: CoinGecko BTC page real-time snapshot 3 Sep 2025. ECB EURUSD reference rate page for 3 Sep 2025. Coinbase BTC-EUR snapshot 3 Sep 2025 12:57 CEST.
• On-chain metrics and network health: YCharts indicators for supply, hash rate, difficulty, fees, and transactions per day based on Blockchain.com data series. VanEck ChainCheck for active addresses snapshot on 21 Jul 2025.
• ETF/ETP flows and AUM: Farside Investors Bitcoin ETF flow tracker and CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows weekly report; EU product pages for fee notices.
• Halving: Blockchain.com block 840,000 confirmation.
• Macro cross-check: Reuters gold price articles 2–3 Sep 2025.

Bottom line

We initiate BTC_EUR at Buy, €127,032 12-month target. Our base case is a flow-supported expansion in institutional ownership, within a post-halving supply regime, cross-checked to a conservative 12 percent share of gold’s above-ground value. Upside and downside scenarios anchor risk management.

Expanded disclosures

This report was generated by AI based on public sources cited above and author calculations. It contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This content is for information only and not investment advice. Do not rely on it to make investment decisions. Perform your own research and consider obtaining advice from a licensed financial advisor. The author and platform make no warranties as to accuracy or completeness. Market data are indicative and may differ by venue and timestamp.