Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Date: 12 Sep 2025, Europe/Amsterdam
• Current price (spot BTC_EUR): €98,387 per BTC, Coinbase converter at time of writing. (Coinbase)
• Target price (12-month): €130,000
• Implied upside: +32.1% vs €98,387. Calculation: (130,000 − 98,387) ÷ 98,387 = 32.13%.
• Investment rating: Buy
• Circulating supply: ~19.92 million BTC as of 7 Sep 2025 snapshot. (CoinMarketCap)
• Supply cap: 21 million BTC; block reward 3.125 BTC since 20 Apr 2024 halving. (Bitcoin Wiki)
• Network hash rate (recent print): ~954 EH/s on 11 Sep 2025. (Blockchain)
• On-chain activity (recent): ~511k transactions/day; unique addresses in use rising trend. (Blockchain)
• US spot BTC ETFs: strong positive daily net flows this week, including +$741.5m on 10 Sep 2025. (farside.co.uk)
• FX used for USD→EUR conversions in this report: 1 EUR = 1.1685 USD (ECB reference rate, 11 Sep 2025). (European Central Bank)

12-month price chart (USD reference)

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 115327.0 USD currently with a change of 907.00 USD (0.01%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 116312.0 USD and the intraday low is 113509.0 USD.

“Factor profile” (internal composite, 0 to 100)

• Growth: 60
• Returns: 65
• Multiple: 95 (expensive on NV/Fees vs smart-contract peers)
• Integrated percentile: 70
  Notes: percentile style reflects internal scoring from activity, fee growth proxies, and valuation vs peers. Statistics referenced below.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now

1. ETF demand is persistent with multiple very strong net inflow days in September, supporting incremental, price-insensitive buying. (farside.co.uk)
2. Macro tailwind from gold. Gold near record highs lifts store-of-value demand across assets. Spot gold just under $3,650/oz today, up materially YTD in 2025. (Reuters)
3. Post-MiCA clarity in the EU. Core MiCA provisions for crypto-asset services have applied since 30 Dec 2024, with further Level 2/3 measures in 2025, improving the regulatory baseline for European investors and platforms. (ESMA)

Positioning line: Scarcity asset with deepening institutional rails, initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1) Scarcity and predictable issuance

• Fixed cap 21m BTC, with issuance schedule enforced by protocol. Latest halving on 20 Apr 2024 set block reward to 3.125 BTC. Scarcity narrative remains credible and easy to communicate to allocators. (Bitcoin Wiki)

2) Institutional distribution unlocked

• US spot ETF flows have re-accelerated in September. Example: +$741.5m total net flow on 10 Sep 2025 across the suite, following additional strong prints earlier in the week. This deepens access for pensions, RIAs and multi-asset funds and provides ongoing mechanical demand. (farside.co.uk)

3) Store-of-value tailwind alongside gold

• World Gold Council estimates 216,265 tonnes above-ground stock at end-2024. At today’s ~$3,648/oz gold price, implied gold market value ≈ $25.38 trillion. Calculation: 216,265 t × 32,150.7466 oz/t × $3,647.76 ≈ $25.38 tn. (World Gold Council)
• Bitcoin at ~$2.3 tn market cap today equals ~9.1% of gold’s value, leaving significant headroom if BTC continues to monetize as digital gold. (CoinGecko)

4) Healthy network fundamentals

• Recent hash rate near 1 zettahash level equivalents indicates robust miner investment and network security. Example print ~953.5 EH/s on 11 Sep 2025. (Blockchain)
• On-chain throughput remains high: ~511k daily confirmed transactions on recent day. (Blockchain)

5) EU regulatory clarity

• MiCA regime in application for service providers since 30 Dec 2024; 2025 has seen several technical standards and guidelines from ESMA and EBA, improving harmonization and supervision. (ESMA)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. Metrics in USD unless noted, converted to EUR for comparison where shown, using 1 EUR = 1.1685 USD. (European Central Bank)

Latest snapshots

• Market cap
  • BTC: ~$2.3 tn. (CoinGecko)
  • ETH: ~$549 bn live market cap. (CoinMarketCap)
  • SOL: ~$129 bn live market cap. (CoinMarketCap)
• Active addresses (24h)
  • BTC: ~722k. (DeFi Llama)
  • ETH: ~579k. (DeFi Llama)
  • SOL: ~2.37m. (DeFi Llama)
• On-chain fees, 30-day sum
  • BTC: ~$13.24m
  • ETH: ~$41.5m
  • SOL: ~$41.35m
    Source: DefiLlama fees by chain. (DeFi Llama)

Converted to EUR (USD × 0.8558):

• BTC mcap ≈ €1.97 tn; ETH €470 bn; SOL €110 bn. Calculation example BTC: $2.3 tn × 0.8558 ≈ €1.97 tn. (European Central Bank)

Valuation vs “fees” multiple (NV/Fees, annualized, unitless)

• Method: Market cap ÷ (30-day fees × 12).
• BTC: $2.3 tn ÷ ($13.24m × 12) ≈ 14,476x.
• ETH: $549 bn ÷ ($41.5m × 12) ≈ 1,102x.
• SOL: $129 bn ÷ ($41.35m × 12) ≈ 260x.
  Numbers use market caps above and DefiLlama 30-day fees. (CoinGecko)

Interpretation: Bitcoin screens very expensive on NV/Fees relative to smart-contract chains, which is expected since Bitcoin’s design minimizes app-layer fees; fees are not the primary value accrual channel. Use this multiple as a cross-check, not a primary anchor.

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Top-line proxy: We model network transaction fees as the “revenue” analog, along with ETF net AUM growth as a demand driver. On-chain 30-day fees currently ~$13.24m (DefiLlama), implying $159m annualized. (DeFi Llama)

Key drivers and baseline prints

• Active addresses (24h): ~722k BTC today. We anchor growth on network breadth. (DeFi Llama)
• Confirmed transactions/day: ~511k as a throughput proxy. (Blockchain)
• US spot ETF flows: multiple strong prints this week including +$741.5m on 10 Sep 2025. We translate persistent inflows into lower float and higher price sensitivity. (farside.co.uk)
• FX conversion: USD amounts converted to EUR at 0.8558 using ECB reference. (European Central Bank)

Model horizon and simplified assumptions
All assumptions are ours and not statistics. Where hard data are required we flag “DATA NEEDED”.

• Network fees growth
  • 2025E base: $159m annualized from recent 30-day run-rate.
  • 2026E: +25% to $199m on sustained inscriptions, periodic fee spikes, and incremental usage.
  • 2027E: +15% to $229m as blockspace markets deepen and L2 bridging use cases grow.
  • Convert to EUR: 2025E €136m, 2026E €170m, 2027E €196m.
• Active addresses
  • 2025E: ~0.72m/day average baseline.
  • 2026E: +10% to ~0.79m/day.
  • 2027E: +8% to ~0.85m/day.
  • DATA NEEDED for validation: Glassnode or Coin Metrics active address 12-month averages.
• ETF net AUM add (US only)
  • 2025E remainder: +$25bn incremental net inflow.
  • 2026E: +$50bn.
  • 2027E: +$30bn.
  • DATA NEEDED for full global ETF/ETN picture: issuers, Farside Investors consolidated tracker. (farside.co.uk)
• Hash rate
  • 2025E average: ~0.95 ZH/s equivalent.
  • 2026E: +20% as new generation ASICs deploy.
  • 2027E: +10%.
  • DATA NEEDED to tie to capex and power price curves: Luxor Hashrate Index. (data.hashrateindex.com)
• Regulatory posture
  • MiCA implementation remains on track with continuing Level 2/3 roll-outs through 2025, supporting CASP authorization and disclosures. (ESMA)

Bridge to price
We link price to store-of-value share versus gold and incremental ETF demand.

6) Valuation

Primary framework: Store-of-value share vs gold (TAM approach)

• Gold market size: WGC above-ground stock 216,265 t at end-2024; spot ~$3,648/oz today. Implied gold value ≈ $25.38 tn. Calculation shown earlier. (World Gold Council)
• Bitcoin market cap today: ~$2.3 tn. Share of gold ≈ 9.06%. Calculation: 2.3 ÷ 25.38 = 0.0906. (CoinGecko)

12-month base case target

• We assume BTC’s gold-equivalent share rises from ~9.1% to 12.0% as ETF penetration deepens and macro demand persists.
• Implied BTC market cap: 0.12 × $25.38 tn = $3.045 tn.
• Upside vs today: $3.045 tn ÷ $2.3 tn = 1.324× or +32.4%.
• Implied BTC_EUR price: €98,387 × 1.324 ≈ €130,280, rounded to €130,000 target. (Coinbase)

Scenario analysis

• Bull case (15% gold share): 0.15 × $25.38 tn = $3.807 tn. Price multiple 3.807 ÷ 2.3 = 1.655×. Implied €162k.
• Bear case (hold at 9%): near flat vs today; €98k–€105k range, subject to ETF flows and risk.
• Sensitivity to gold: Every $100/oz change in gold shifts the TAM by ≈ $0.069 tn. Calculation: 216,265 t × 32,150.7466 oz/t × $100 ≈ $0.695 tn; 12% share moves ≈ $83 bn of BTC mcap. (World Gold Council)

Cross-check: NV/Fees multiple vs peers

• BTC ~14,476x vs ETH ~1,102x and SOL ~260x. The disparity reflects differing value capture mechanisms. We do not anchor valuation to NV/Fees for BTC, but the cross-check argues for caution if fee capture is your metric. (DeFi Llama)

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. Regulatory tightening or adverse interpretations in the EU
   • MiCA’s detailed RTS and guidelines continue to roll out through 2025. Unexpected stances on custody, staking equivalents, or CASP obligations could raise friction. (ESMA)
2. ETF net outflows
   • US spot ETF flows have been strong in September, but flows can reverse quickly and are price sensitive. A string of large redemptions would pressure spot. (farside.co.uk)
3. Macro correlation shocks
   • A sharp risk-off move or USD squeeze could drain liquidity and risk budgets, even with gold strong. Gold’s rally to ~$3,648/oz shows macro repricing that could reverse. (Reuters)
4. Mining economics and security budget
   • Post-halving miner revenues depend more on fees. Prolonged low fees could pressure hash rate and security margins, though current hash rate remains near record. (DeFi Llama)
5. Technology or ecosystem risks
   • Lightning capacity has fluctuated, with some sources noting declines in BTC-denominated capacity in 2025 that may be structural rather than adoption-related. Misinterpretation could dent sentiment. (CryptoSlate)
6. Data quality and transparency
   • On-chain and exchange metrics can vary by provider. We cross-reference reputable sources, but discrepancies exist.

8) Appendix

A) Expanded models and calculations

A1. Gold TAM math

• Tonnes: 216,265 t. Ounces per tonne: 32,150.7466 oz. Gold price: $3,647.76/oz.
• Total value: 216,265 × 32,150.7466 × 3,647.76 = $25.38 tn. (World Gold Council)

A2. BTC share and target linkage

• Today: BTC share ≈ 2.3 ÷ 25.38 = 9.06%. (CoinGecko)
• Base case: 12% share → $3.045 tn BTC mcap.
• Price multiple: 1.324× → implied BTC_EUR ≈ €130k from €98.4k. (Coinbase)

A3. NV/Fees calculations

• BTC: Fees30d $13.24m × 12 = $158.88m; $2.3 tn ÷ $158.88m = 14,476x. (DeFi Llama)
• ETH: Fees30d $41.5m × 12 = $498m; $549 bn ÷ $498m = 1,102x. (DeFi Llama)
• SOL: Fees30d $41.35m × 12 = $496.2m; $129 bn ÷ $496.2m = 260x. (DeFi Llama)

A4. 3-year “top-line” proxy model (fees)

• 2025E USD: $159m → EUR €136m.
• 2026E USD: $199m → EUR €170m.
• 2027E USD: $229m → EUR €196m.
  FX at 0.8558 EUR per USD. (European Central Bank)
  Assumptions, not statistics. Validation sources suggested: DefiLlama aggregates, Coin Metrics Network Data Pro. (DeFi Llama)

A5. Activity baselines

• Active addresses (24h): BTC ~722k; ETH ~579k; SOL ~2.37m. (DeFi Llama)
• Transactions/day: BTC ~511k on recent day. (Blockchain)

A6. Other reference data

• ECB FX: 1 EUR = 1.1685 USD on 11 Sep 2025. (European Central Bank)
• BTC price USD reference: $115,327 at time of query.
• BTC_EUR spot references: €98,387 to €98,610 on Coinbase converter pages during drafting. (Coinbase)

B) Cohort and ecosystem notes

• Lightning Network
  • Public capacity has oscillated. Several analyses note a decline from late-2023 peaks to mid-2025, attributing it partly to topology changes and private channels. (CryptoSlate)
  • Institutional research in early 2025 estimated public capacity ~5,359 BTC at that time. (Fidelity Digital Assets)
• Hashrate and security budget
  • Hash rate trends remain structurally higher versus 2024, consistent with miner capex and network maturity. Example prints available via Blockchain.com and YCharts. (Blockchain)

C) Disclosure boilerplate

This report uses publicly available data believed to be reliable, including Coinbase, DefiLlama, CoinDesk/Coingecko/CoinMarketCap, Blockchain.com, Farside Investors, ECB, WGC, and others, each cited alongside the relevant statistic. We convert USD to EUR using the latest ECB euro reference rate on the date noted.

Data caveats: Some web dashboards are dynamic and may update after retrieval. Fee and activity metrics can differ by provider methodology. Where precise time-aligned series were not publicly available, we used recent snapshots and clearly labeled assumptions. If a statistic is labeled DATA NEEDED, we suggest subscribing to providers such as Glassnode, Coin Metrics, Kaiko, or Token Terminal for time-series verification.

Compliance and use:
This document is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It is not investment research, investment advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. It may contain errors. Do your own research. Past performance is not indicative of future results.