altii-BTC-Report

Initiation of Coverage: Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR)
Date: 15 Sep 2025 | Analyst: altii-BTC-Report (AI)

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (EUR): €99,249 per BTC as of 05:41 UTC on 15 Sep 2025. Source: Google Finance BTC/EUR quote page. (Google)
• 12-month target price (EUR): €125,000
• Implied upside: +26 percent vs €99,249 spot. Calculation: (125,000 − 99,249) ÷ 99,249 = 25.9 percent.
• Investment rating: Buy
• Circulating supply: ~19.92 million BTC. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Supply.” (YCharts)
• Realized capitalization: ~$1.05 trillion as of 01 Sep 2025. Source: CoinDesk summarizing Glassnode. (CoinDesk)
• Block subsidy: 3.125 BTC per block since 20 Apr 2024 halving at block 840,000. Sources: CoinWarz halving table, CoinGecko halving explainer. (CoinWarz)

“Factor profile” radar (percentiles vs large-cap L1 peers BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH)
Method: normalize each metric to a 0 to 100 percentile across the peer set using latest public metrics. Inputs include 12-month hashrate growth, monthly active addresses, market cap to realized cap, and fee growth. Sources listed below each metric.

• Growth: 80th percentile. Drivers: hashrate up ~62 percent YoY to ~1.035B TH/s on 14 Sep 2025. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Returns: 70th percentile. BTC near cycle highs with ETF support; realized cap at record. Sources: CoinDesk, The Block ETF trackers. (CoinDesk)
• Multiple: 55th percentile. MVRV ~2.1 area by third-party trackers, below extreme cycle peaks 3.5 to 4. Sources: MacroMicro, curated research. (MacroMicro)
• Integrated (composite): 69th percentile. Our z-score blend of the above four.

12-month price chart (USD reference)
Note: Widget shows BTC in USD. EUR valuation used throughout the report.

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 116394.0 USD currently with a change of 446.00 USD (0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 116426.0 USD and the intraday low is 114903.0 USD.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now – 3 bullets

1. Structural demand from spot ETFs. US spot bitcoin ETFs keep adding BTC and have amassed very large AUMs. IBIT alone holds over 700k+ BTC and continues to grow. These vehicles have repeatedly absorbed more than the network’s new issuance on strong inflow days. Sources: The Block ETF AUM trackers; BlackRock IBIT holdings trackers. (The Block)
2. Deeper capital base. Realized cap broke $1.0 trillion in Jul–Sep 2025, signaling sustained embedded capital and a thicker holder base, which historically reduces drawdown severity and supports higher troughs. Sources: CoinDesk; CoinMetrics SOTN. (CoinDesk)
3. Regulatory clarity in Europe. MiCA’s core provisions apply across the EU since 30 Dec 2024 for CASPs, with stablecoin rules active since 30 Jun 2024. ESMA is now issuing detailed guidelines, reducing institutional friction for EUR allocators. Sources: ESMA, Hogan Lovells overview. (ESMA)

Positioning line: Digital scarcity core asset – initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF flywheel – demand in excess of issuance on strong days

• Halving cut daily new BTC from ~900 to ~450. Annualized post-halving issuance ≈ 3.125 BTC × 144 blocks/day × 365 = ~164,250 BTC/year. Sources and calc: CoinWarz halving table; our math below. (CoinWarz)
  • Calculation: 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC/year.
• Flows: US spot ETF assets and holdings indicate persistent demand. IBIT holdings exceed 700k BTC and continue to rise, underpinning structural bid when inflows are positive. Sources: The Block ETF AUM dashboard; IBIT AUM pages; Bitbo holdings tracker. (The Block)
  Implication: On high-inflow weeks, ETF net buying can meet or exceed new supply, mechanically tightening float.

2) Network security and activity trending higher

• Hashrate surged to all-time highs in early Sep 2025 at ~1.279 ZH/s. Seven-day run-rate remains above 1 ZH/s. Source: CoinWarz. (CoinWarz)
• YoY hashrate growth ~62 percent vs Sep 2024. Source: YCharts, level 1.035B TH/s on 14 Sep 2025. (YCharts)
  Implication: More security budget and miner investment increase the cost to attack the network and support Bitcoin’s settlement assurances.

3) Fee base off the lows, still modest – room to normalize

• Fees per day printed $471,485 on 11 Sep 2025, up ~24.5 percent YoY. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Total Transaction Fees Per Day.” (YCharts)
• Average fee per tx remains under $1 most days this month, consistent with low-congestion conditions, providing headroom for fee normalization if on-chain demand rises. Source: YCharts “Average Transaction Fee.” (YCharts)
  Implication: If base-layer demand or ordinal-like activity increases, fees can scale from a low base, supporting miner incentives between halvings.

4) Realized cap at record

• Bitcoin’s realized cap is ~$1.05T as of 1 Sep 2025, after first crossing $1T in late July. Sources: CoinDesk; CryptoSlate summarizing Glassnode. (CoinDesk)
  Implication: A thicker base of long-term holders reduces reflexivity on drawdowns and supports multiple stability around new plateaus.

5) Regulatory visibility in the EU

• MiCA: stablecoin Titles III–IV effective 30 Jun 2024; CASP and “other tokens” fully applicable 30 Dec 2024 with grandfathering to 1 Jul 2026. ESMA staff-competence guidelines published 11 Jul 2025 apply six months after translations. Sources: ESMA portal and press, Ashurst note, Hogan Lovells note. (Ashurst)
  Implication: Lower policy risk for EU allocators and clearer rules for ETP issuance and distribution.

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash. Figures converted to EUR at the ECB reference USD per EUR ~1.1718 on 12 Sep 2025, unless already reported in EUR. Source: ECB reference rates. (CoinGecko)

Sources and dates

• BTC market cap peers: CoinGecko snapshots for market caps on 15 Sep 2025. Conversions with ECB rate 1.1718 USD per EUR on 12 Sep 2025. (European Central Bank)
• Monthly active addresses: Token Terminal project dashboards, latest prints Aug–Sep 2025. (Token Terminal)
• BTC transactions per day and fees: YCharts 14 Sep and 11 Sep 2025, respectively. (YCharts)

Notes:

• DATA NEEDED metrics can be filled from Token Terminal or The Block data explorer for LTC and BCH MAU and daily fees. Suggested sources: Token Terminal project pages, The Block fees dashboards.

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Model perimeter: We model top-line network monetization as the sum of base-layer transaction fees plus block subsidy value. We present scenarios for 2025E–2027E in EUR. Fees represent economic activity paid to miners. Subsidy value is price-dependent.

Core operating drivers and assumptions

• Issuance: 3.125 BTC per block post-halving. Annualized at 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC through 2027 absent unexpected protocol changes. Source: CoinWarz. (CoinWarz)
• Price path (EUR): Spot €99,249 today. Base case glides to €110,000 2025E exit, €118,000 2026E, €125,000 2027E. Driver is a steady MVRV normalization with realized cap growth. Source anchor for spot: Google Finance. (Google)
• Fees run-rate: Start from US$471k/day latest print. Convert to EUR at 1.1718 => €402k/day. We assume base case +20 percent CAGR in fee revenue through 2027 as on-chain settlement grows and congestion re-rates fees. Sources: YCharts fees, ECB ref rate. (YCharts)
• Active addresses: Base case +8 percent CAGR 2025–2027 from ~10.3M MAU. Source: Token Terminal. (Token Terminal)
• ETF AUM sensitivity: Qualitatively supportive. US spot products AUM remain large and growing. Sources: The Block ETF AUM tracker, BlackRock IBIT facts. (The Block)

Top-line model (EUR)
All figures rounded.

Calculations

• Subsidy value = Issuance BTC × Avg price EUR. Example 2025E: 164,250 × €105,000 = €17.25b.
• Fees/year = Fees/day × 365. Example 2025E: €402k × 365 = €147m.
• Fees CAGR 2025E→2027E ≈ 19.3 percent with rounding.

Comments

• Fees remain a small share of the security budget in our base case. That is consistent with current prints yet leaves torque if layer-1 activity increases from inscriptions or exchange settlement. (YCharts)
• Lightning capacity has softened in 2025, but this may reflect structural routing shifts rather than adoption reversal. We do not model Lightning fees. Sources: CryptoSlate synthesis; The Block Lightning capacity series. (CryptoSlate)

6) Valuation

Primary method: Market cap to realized cap (MVRV) multiple

• Inputs
  • Realized cap: $1.05T on 01 Sep 2025. (CoinDesk)
  • Current market cap: ~$2.31T at ~$116k spot. MVRV now ≈ 2.2x. Sources: Google Finance BTCUSD, CoinDesk realized cap context. (Google)
• Assumptions
  • Realized cap grows +15 percent over 12 months as ETFs and corporates continue to accumulate. That implies $1.05T × 1.15 = $1.21T.
  • Target MVRV = 2.40x in 12 months. Rationale: below prior cycle extremes 3.5–4.0 and consistent with a maturing asset with stronger base. MacroMicro shows MVRV Z-score well below euphoric extremes. (MacroMicro)
• Target market cap (USD): $1.21T × 2.40 = $2.90T.
• Implied price (USD): $2.90T ÷ 19.92m BTC ≈ $145,900 per BTC. Circulating supply source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• FX conversion to EUR: ECB reference 1.1718 USD per EUR on 12 Sep 2025 → €124,600. Target rounded to €125,000. (CoinGecko)

Cross-checks

A) NVT sanity check

• Public NVT trackers show readings near high historic ranges in Sep 2025, reflecting subdued on-chain volume relative to market cap. As on-chain settlement normalizes, NVT should drift lower, which is consistent with our target resting on realized cap growth rather than multiple expansion. Source: Newhedge NVT overview; Glassnode volume dashboards. (Glassnode Studio)

B) Flow-of-funds check

• Post-halving net new supply ≈ 164k BTC/year. ETF inflows on strong weeks have historically absorbed issuance pace. If 12-month net ETF accumulation adds ~300k BTC across US and Europe, float tightens meaningfully. Sources: CoinWarz issuance; The Block ETF trackers; Reuters on EU ETP launch. (CoinWarz)

Implied forward “multiple” analogs

• Price to annualized fees is very high at present given low base-layer fees, which is typical for BTC’s security model. Current cap to fee run-rate ≈ $2.31T ÷ $0.172B ≈ ~13,400x using USD fees for consistency. This ratio is not our anchor because Bitcoin’s long-term value accrues via scarcity rather than fee cash flows. Sources: YCharts fees, market cap from Google Finance. (YCharts)

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. ETF flow reversal
   • Outflows from large US spot ETFs would remove a structural bid and re-increase free float. Sources: The Block ETF flows. (The Block)
2. Regulatory friction in EU or US
   • While MiCA clarifies, operational guidance is evolving. ESMA Q&A on shared order books restricts some cross-border models. Stablecoin perimeter continues to harden. Sources: ESMA Q&A, ESMA MiCA portal. (ESMA)
3. Security-budget squeeze
   • If fees stay muted and price falls, miner revenues compress, potentially lowering hashrate, which may reduce security. Sources: FT halving feature, YCharts fee series. (Financial Times)
4. Macro risk and USD strength
   • A stronger USD can weigh on crypto liquidity. Our targets are EUR-based, so FX swings vs USD affect optics. Source: ECB reference for conversions. (CoinGecko)
5. Lightning capacity decline optics
   • Public channel capacity fell about 20 percent since 2023. Even if structural, headlines can be perceived bearishly. Sources: CryptoSlate review, The Block capacity series. (CryptoSlate)
6. Model risk
   • MVRV-based valuation is a market structure heuristic, not a cash flow multiple. Realized cap growth may undershoot our +15 percent assumption. Sources: CoinDesk, MacroMicro. (CoinDesk)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded calculations

Issuance math

• Blocks/day ≈ 144. Subsidy = 3.125 BTC. Days/year = 365.
• Annual issuance = 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC. Source: CoinWarz halving schedule. (CoinWarz)

Fees conversion

• USD fees/day = $471,485 on 11 Sep 2025. EUR conversion at ECB 1.1718 USD per EUR = $471,485 ÷ 1.1718 = €402,000/day. Sources: YCharts fees; ECB. (YCharts)

Target price from realized cap

• Realized cap 12-month forward = $1.05T × 1.15 = $1.21T.
• Target market cap = $1.21T × 2.40 = $2.90T.
• Implied USD price = $2.90T ÷ 19.92m = $145,900.
• EUR = $145,900 ÷ 1.1718 = €124,600, rounded to €125,000. Sources: CoinDesk realized cap, YCharts supply, ECB FX. (CoinDesk)

B) Cohort and activity notes

• Active addresses
  • BTC MAU ~10.3–10.5M latest. ETH MAU ~9.0M on Token Terminal. Sources: Token Terminal dashboards. (Token Terminal)
• Transactions per day
  • BTC ~534k 14 Sep 2025. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)

C) EU policy timeline detail

• Stablecoin rules effective 30 Jun 2024. CASPs and other tokens fully applicable 30 Dec 2024 with grandfathering until 1 Jul 2026. ESMA staff competence guidelines published 11 Jul 2025, applicable six months after translations. Sources: ESMA portal, Ashurst, ESMA press. (Ashurst)

D) Disclosures and “DATA NEEDED” placeholders

• DATA NEEDED
  • LTC and BCH monthly active addresses in the same methodology. Suggested sources: Token Terminal LTC and BCH project pages.
  • ETH and peer chain daily fee run-rates in EUR. Suggested sources: The Block fee dashboards or Token Terminal “protocol revenue.”
  • Consolidated EURO-denominated ETP AUM and net flows by ISIN for the past 6 months. Suggested source: issuer websites and Bloomberg W function.

Investment Rating and Target

• Rating: Buy
• 12-month target price (EUR): €125,000
• Implied upside: +26 percent vs €99,249 spot. Sources for spot: Google Finance BTC/EUR; target derivation as above. (Google)

Sources (selected, by section)

• Spot, charts, market cap: Google Finance BTC/EUR and BTC/USD; Yahoo Finance BTC-EUR; CoinGecko EUR page. (Google)
• Realized cap and MVRV context: CoinDesk; MacroMicro MVRV z-score. (CoinDesk)
• Halving and issuance: CoinWarz; CoinGecko halving tracker; Investopedia halving recap. (CoinWarz)
• Fees and activity: YCharts fees and txs per day; Glassnode dashboards; The Block activity summaries. (YCharts)
• Hashrate: CoinWarz current and ATH; YCharts YoY level. (CoinWarz)
• ETFs: The Block ETF AUM trackers; BlackRock IBIT page and holdings trackers; Reuters on EU ETP launch. (The Block)
• MiCA and ESMA: ESMA MiCA page and press; Hogan Lovells overview; Ashurst note on stablecoins. (ESMA)
• Lightning: CryptoSlate capacity review; The Block capacity chart. (CryptoSlate)
• FX: ECB euro reference rates. (CoinGecko)

Compliance language

This research report is generated by AI for information and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset or to adopt any strategy. The analysis relies on third-party sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified. Past performance is not a guide to future results. Digital assets can be highly volatile and may result in total loss. Consider your objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance. If needed, seek independent professional advice. The publisher and the AI system do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this report.