Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (EUR): €99,352 per BTC, 13 Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month target price (EUR): €125,000
• Implied upside: +25.9%
  • Calculation: (125,000 − 99,352) ÷ 99,352 = 0.259
• Investment rating: Buy
• Market cap (EUR): ~€1.98tn
  • Calculation: 19.933m BTC × €99,352 ≈ €1.98tn. Circulating supply reference: 19.933m. (CoinGecko)
• Circulating supply: ~19.93m BTC as of Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Issuance: 3.125 BTC per block since Apr 20, 2024; ~144 blocks/day ⇒ ~450 BTC/day. (Investopedia)

“Factor profile” radar (percentiles in our large-cap crypto + macro store-of-value peer set)

• Growth: 90th percentile using 1-year total return (+83.5%). (CoinGecko)
• Returns (risk-adjusted): DATA NEEDED. Suggested source: Coin Metrics “Sharpe ratio” time series.
• Multiple (valuation proxy): DATA NEEDED for NVT and MVRV percentiles. Suggested sources: Coin Metrics, Glassnode.
• Integrated percentile: DATA NEEDED once above are populated.

12-month price chart

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 115423.0 USD currently with a change of 5326.00 USD (0.05%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 115830.0 USD and the intraday low is 109771.0 USD.

Note: Chart shows BTC in USD. EUR spot used for our target and snapshot. (CoinGecko)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Three reasons “why now”

1. Structural demand from spot ETFs persists. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated near-record assets and continue to print multi-hundred-million to multi-billion weekly net inflows, anchoring incremental demand. (Reuters)
2. Supply growth is mechanically capped and just halved. Issuance fell to ~450 BTC/day after the Apr 2024 halving, a flow worth ~€44.7m/day at today’s EUR price, before fees. Our 12-month window still enjoys the post-halving scarcity impulse. (Investopedia)
3. Network security at record levels. Hash rate has sustained the 1 ZH/s regime, signaling robust miner investment despite tougher difficulty, which historically correlates with network confidence. (CoinDesk)

Positioning line: “Digital monetary network with accelerating institutional access; we initiate at Buy.”

3) Investment Positives

1. ETF-driven demand flywheel
   • Global crypto ETFs took a record $5.95bn the week ending 4 Oct 2025, with the U.S. leading. U.S. spot BTC ETFs’ cumulative net inflows are reported around $61bn since launch, and flagship IBIT nears $100bn AUM. These datapoints support a sustained buyer base that converts TradFi capital into spot BTC. (Reuters)
   • Cross-check math: At €99,352/BTC, €1bn of net inflow that is fully converted to spot theoretically removes ~10,063 BTC of free float from the market (1,000,000,000 ÷ 99,352).
2. Tightening supply growth after the 2024 halving
   • Mechanics: 3.125 BTC/block × ~144 blocks/day = ~450 BTC/day, or ~164,250 BTC/year until the next halving in 2028. That flow is worth ~€16.3bn/year at today’s EUR spot.
     • Calculation: 164,250 × €99,352 ≈ €16.3bn. (Investopedia)
   • Stock-to-flow now ≈ 19.93m ÷ 164,250 ≈ 121. For context, gold’s S/F is roughly mid-60s using World Gold Council stock and recent mine output. (CoinGecko)
3. Security and resilience improving
   • Hash rate climbed to and sustained ~1 ZH/s on a 7-day basis in Sep 2025; difficulty is at all-time highs. This combination raises attack costs and signals capital formation in mining infrastructure. (CoinDesk)
4. EU regulatory clarity is advancing
   • MiCA is in force with phased application starting 30 Dec 2024 for CASPs, with Level-2 and Level-3 measures rolling through 2025. A clearer, passportable regime lowers friction for EU institutions to custody, broker and distribute BTC. (amf-france.org)
5. Transaction cost backdrop is benign
   • Average on-chain fee sits ~$1.15/tx in recent prints, well below peak periods, supporting utility use cases while L2 adoption scales. Calculation bridge to EUR uses ECB ref if needed. (YCharts)

4) Competitive / Peer Analysis

Peer set: BTC, ETH, SOL. Currency in EUR for comparability where possible. Volumes converted from USD using ECB ref 1 EUR = 1.1568 USD on 10 Oct 2025 ⇒ 1 USD ≈ 0.8646 EUR. (European Central Bank)

Sources and calculations

• BTC price EUR and market cap inputs: CoinGecko; mkt cap = price × supply. ETH, SOL prices and supplies: CoinGecko. 24h volumes from CoinGecko USD converted with ECB 0.8646 factor. (CoinGecko)
• BTC 1y change +83.5%: CoinGecko. ETH 1y +69.3%, SOL 1y +34.8%: CoinGecko pages. (CoinGecko)

Takeaways

• BTC dominates on scale and liquidity.
• ETH leads smart-contract activity but has a smaller SoV narrative share.
• SOL shows higher throughput but smaller liquidity and market depth relative to BTC.

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions (3-year)

Framework: For a non-cash-flow asset, we focus on supply, indicative demand, and network security budget. We model 12-month spot price targets and key operating KPIs.

Supply path

• Base supply (Oct 13, 2025): 19.9337m BTC. (Bitcoin Block Half)
• Issuance to Oct 13, 2026: +164,250 ⇒ 20.098m
• Issuance to Oct 13, 2027: +164,250 ⇒ 20.262m
• Issuance to Oct 13, 2028: Pre-halving period ~190 days × 450 = 85,500; post-halving ~175 days × 225 = 39,375; total ≈ 124,875. Rounded to +125,100 with block time variability ⇒ ~20.387m by Oct 2028. Halving cadence and block reward per Investopedia/Kraken. (Investopedia)

Price path scenarios (EUR)

Implied market caps (EUR) using base supply trajectory

• Oct 2026: 20.098m × €125k ≈ €2.51tn
• Oct 2027: 20.262m × €140k ≈ €2.84tn
• Oct 2028: 20.387m × €160k ≈ €3.26tn

Security budget and flows

• Current daily miner revenue proxy from subsidy only
  • Today: 450 BTC/day × €99,352 ≈ €44.7m/day subsidy. Fees add on top; average fee per tx ~$1.15. (CoinGecko)
• Annualized security budget vs market cap
  • If we use YCharts daily miner revenue in USD of $50.09m/day as a recent print, that annualizes to ~$18.3bn. Price/security-budget ≈ $2.30tn ÷ $18.3bn ≈ 126x. This is a descriptive ratio, not a valuation anchor. (YCharts)

Operating KPIs we will track

• Hash rate: ~1.0 ZH/s 7-day average in Sep 2025; difficulty ~150.84 T. (CoinDesk)
• On-chain activity: Average transactions per day ~418k; average fee ~$1.15. DATA NEEDED to project post-halving throughput as L2 adoption changes behavior. Suggested sources: YCharts, Coin Metrics. (YCharts)
• ETF net inflows: We assume net +€25–35bn over the next 12 months in our base case. This is our assumption informed by recent run-rates and capacity. Weekly global flows recently hit a record $5.95bn. (Reuters)

6) Valuation

Primary method: scarcity and demand-saturation cross-checks rather than traditional cash-flow multiples

1. Stock-to-flow (S/F) anchor
   • BTC S/F ≈ 19.93m ÷ 0.164m ≈ 121 today.
   • Gold S/F ≈ 216,265t ÷ ~3,300t ≈ 65. This gives an intuition that BTC’s issuance scarcity is already above gold on a flow basis. Caveat: S/F is not a cash-flow multiple and does not guarantee price. (World Gold Council)
2. Price to security budget (P/SecBud) as a P/E analog
   • Using ~$18.3bn annualized miner revenue and ~$2.30tn market value, P/SecBud ≈ 126x. Historically this compresses when fees rise or price stalls and expands when price outruns fee and subsidy revenue. DATA NEEDED for time-series percentiles. Suggested source: Blockchain.com, YCharts. (Blockchain.com)
3. ETF flow-to-issuance stress test
   • Next 12 months issuance value ~€16.3bn at today’s price. If net ETF demand equals €25–35bn, that exceeds new supply by 1.5–2.1x, creating a positive imbalance that supports our €125k 12-month base target. Assumptions are ours; they are informed by recent ETF flow prints and may vary. (Reuters)

Cross-check vs peers

• On 1-year return, BTC outperformed major L1 peers and tracked safe-haven gold’s strong YTD rally. (CoinGecko)

7) Key Risks

1. Policy and regulatory risk in the U.S. or EU
   • Tightening rules on ETFs, custody, or CASP authorization could hit flows and distribution. MiCA is still normalizing with ESMA guidance and peer reviews. (ESMA)
2. ETF flow reversal
   • A turn in risk appetite or fee competition could reduce net buying or trigger outflows, pressuring price given the role ETFs now play. (Reuters)
3. Mining economics shock
   • Difficulty highs and a lower subsidy post-2024 compress hashprice; if price lags, miner deleveraging could lift sell pressure and temporarily reduce network security growth. (YCharts)
4. Macro risk
   • Real rates, USD dynamics, and liquidity cycles can override crypto-specific factors, as seen in other macro stores of value like gold. (Reuters)
5. On-chain capacity and fee volatility
   • Fee spikes during congestion could impair utility and sentiment; low fees reduce miner revenue and raise reliance on price. (YCharts)

8) Appendix

Expanded calculations and cohort notes

• Market cap today (EUR): €99,352 × 19.933m = €1.98tn. Inputs from CoinGecko and supply trackers. (CoinGecko)
• Issuance value today (EUR, subsidy only): 450 × €99,352 ≈ €44.7m/day; ×365 ≈ €16.3bn/year. Fees add to the total security budget. (CoinGecko)
• Security budget cross-check (USD): YCharts daily miner revenue ~$50.09m (Oct 10, 2025) ×365 = $18.3bn; P/SecBud ≈ 2.30tn ÷ 18.3bn ≈ 126x. (YCharts)
• Hash rate context: YCharts daily hash rate 989.77m TH/s on Oct 10, 2025 equals ~0.99 ZH/s daily average; CoinDesk reports the 7-day average crossed 1 ZH/s on Sep 2, 2025. (YCharts)
• 1-year return inputs: BTC +83.5%, ETH +69.3%, SOL +34.8% per CoinGecko pages accessed Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)

Data gaps to close in next iteration

• Risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe over rolling windows), NVT, MVRV percentiles. Suggested: Coin Metrics, Glassnode.
• EU ETF and ETP flows by domicile to complement U.S. flows. Suggested: CoinShares weekly fund flows. (Legal Nodes)
• Lightning capacity and L2 usage trends to inform on-chain vs off-chain utility. Suggested: Amboss, The Block research.

Disclosures and Important Information

This report is AI-generated for information only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, digital asset, or strategy. The report may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Digital assets are highly volatile. Do your own research and consider your financial situation, risk tolerance, and consult a licensed advisor where appropriate.

Sources and dates

• BTC EUR spot, market statistics, volumes, supplies: CoinGecko pages accessed 13 Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)
• 1-year returns: CoinGecko pages accessed 13 Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)
• U.S. spot BTC ETF flows and AUM context: Reuters 7 Oct 2025; Bloomberg 7 Oct 2025; Yahoo Finance and TradingView posts citing SoSoValue, 6–9 Oct 2025. (Reuters)
• Halving facts and issuance mechanics: Investopedia updated 2024; Kraken Learn page 4 Sep 2024; The Block tracker. (Investopedia)
• Hash rate and difficulty: CoinDesk 2 Sep 2025; YCharts difficulty series 10 Oct 2025; CoinWarz/Yahoo Finance articles. (CoinDesk)
• Fees and on-chain activity: YCharts indicators accessed 10–13 Oct 2025. (YCharts)
• MiCA timing and implementation: ESMA, AMF, Level-2/3 measures, press and guidance accessed Jul–Oct 2025. (amf-france.org)
• Gold reference points: WGC above-ground stock and 2024 supply; Reuters on 2025 price context. (World Gold Council)