Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage
1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot
- Coverage: Bitcoin priced in euro
- Date: 14 Oct 2025, Europe/Berlin
- Current price: €98,108 per BTC. Source shows live BTC/EUR on CoinGecko at €98,108 as of today. (CoinGecko)
- 12-month price target: €124,000
- Implied upside: +26.2% vs €98,108
- Calculation: (Target €124,000 − Spot €98,108) ÷ €98,108 = 26.2%.
- Investment rating: Buy
- Market capitalization: €1.96T at spot (CoinGecko market cap in EUR). (CoinGecko)
- Circulating supply: 19,934,193 BTC as of today. (CoinGecko)
- Annual issuance post-halving: ~164,250 BTC
- Assumptions and sources: 3.125 BTC block reward since the 20 Apr 2024 halving at block 840,000; 144 blocks per day; 365 days per year. 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC. (CoinWarz)
- Implied inflation rate: ~0.824%
- Calculation: 164,250 ÷ 19,934,193 = 0.0082396 = 0.824%. Supply from CoinGecko, reward from CoinWarz. (CoinGecko)
- US ETFs’ holdings: ~1,361,185 BTC as of 13 Oct 2025, or ~6.83% of current supply. Calculation: 1,361,185 ÷ 19,934,193 = 6.83%. (Bitbo)
- Hash rate: ~1.14 ZH/s on 13 Oct 2025. YCharts “Bitcoin Network Hash Rate (Daily).” (YCharts)
- Average mining cost: $110,993 on 12 Oct 2025. MacroMicro. At ECB ref 1 EUR = 1.1569 USD on 13 Oct 2025, cost is ~€95,975. Calculation: 110,993 ÷ 1.1569. (MacroMicro)
12-month price chart
(USD chart shown for visual context; we present valuation and targets in EUR.)
Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)
- Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
- The price is 113587.0 USD currently with a change of -1378.00 USD (-0.01%) from the previous close.
- The intraday high is 115948.0 USD and the intraday low is 113418.0 USD.
“Factor profile” snapshot (internal percentile scoring vs liquid peers BTC, ETH, SOL, gold; not third-party data)
- Growth: 75th percentile
- Returns: 80th percentile
- Multiple: 55th percentile
- Integrated score: 70th percentile
Basis: 1Y price return in EUR, active addresses growth, fees trend, and MVRV/NVT positioning; underlying stats cited throughout (CoinGecko, TokenTerminal, YCharts, Glassnode references). (CoinGecko)
2) Investment Thesis — One-page tear-sheet
Why now — three bullets
- Structural demand from ETFs keeps absorbing supply. US spot BTC ETFs now hold ~1.36 million BTC and saw record net inflows of $5.95B in the week ending 4 Oct 2025, with continued $3.17B inflows last week despite volatility. This demand competes directly with ~164k BTC annual issuance. (Bitbo)
- Programmed scarcity post-halving. The Apr 2024 halving cut issuance to 3.125 BTC per block. Annualized inflation is now ~0.824%, the lowest in BTC history, strengthening the stock-to-flow dynamic that has historically supported cycles after supply shocks. (CoinWarz)
- Macro portfolio role alongside gold. Gold hit $4,000/oz on 8 Oct 2025 amid trade and rate uncertainty. Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative benefits from the same macro bid, with 1Y BTC/EUR up ~81.7% while crypto ETP volumes hit records. (World Gold Council)
Positioning line: “Scarcity asset with institutional pipes — initiate at Buy.”
3) Investment Positives
- ETF and ETP flywheel
- US spot BTC ETFs held ~1.36M BTC as of 13 Oct 2025. Weekly inflows hit $5.95B for week ending 4 Oct and $3.17B last week, with all-time-high weekly ETP volumes $53B. These flows institutionalize demand and reduce tradable float. (Bitbo)
- Cross-border pipeline: Europe hosts large physically-backed ETPs such as 21Shares Bitcoin ETP with ~€899m AUM and 21Shares Bitcoin Core with ~€438m AUM on Xetra. (JustETF)
- Supply schedule compresses issuance
- Block reward 3.125 BTC since 20 Apr 2024. Annual issuance ~164,250 BTC; inflation ~0.824% using current supply. These are deterministic, unlike monetary policy. (CoinWarz)
- Network security at record levels
- Hash rate printed ~1.14 ZH/s 13 Oct 2025, near all-time highs, indicating robust miner investment despite post-halving pressures. Geographic distribution continues to broaden with the US still dominant. (YCharts)
- Healthy activity base with improving fees environment
- Transactions per day: ~492k on 13 Oct 2025. Avg fee: ~$0.68 recently, down sharply year over year, improving utility for everyday settlement while preserving fee option value in congestion spikes. (YCharts)
- Active user base remains large
- Monthly active BTC addresses: ~11.0M latest (Token Terminal). Provides a broadening ownership and usage base even through drawdowns. (Token Terminal)
- Realized cap rising through cycle
- Realized capitalization reached ~$1.05T in early Sep 2025 per Glassnode reporting, signaling higher on-chain cost basis and deeper capital commitment. (Yahoo Finance)
- Comparative macro hedge
- Gold’s surge to $4,000/oz underscores strong demand for scarce assets as rates fall and geopolitical risks rise. Bitcoin benefits as a liquid 24/7 complement with portability. (World Gold Council)
- Institutional market infrastructure
- CME BTC futures and options provide risk-management rails, including Bitcoin Euro futures, reducing friction for EUR-based allocators. (CME Group)
4) Competitive and Peer Analysis
Peer set: Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Solana vs Gold
(All values latest available; EUR conversions use ECB ref rate 13 Oct 2025: 1 EUR = 1.1569 USD.) (European Central Bank)
| Metric | Bitcoin (BTC) | Ethereum (ETH) | Solana (SOL) | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | €98,108 per BTC | DATA NEEDED EUR spot | DATA NEEDED EUR spot | €3,591/oz (4,154.75 ÷ 1.1569) |
| 1Y return (EUR) | ~81.7% | DATA NEEDED | DATA NEEDED | +56% YTD in USD context, convert with ECB for EUR approx |
| Monthly active addresses | ~11.0M | ~8.6M | ~37.3M | n.a. |
| Daily transactions | ~492k | ~537k | DATA NEEDED | n.a. |
| Avg transaction fee | ~$0.68 | ~$0.375 | ~$0.0023 | n.a. |
| Fees leaderboard (TT, last 12 mo) | ~$1.9B | ~$5.6B | ~$1.4B | n.a. |
| Hash rate or security metric | ~1.14 ZH/s | PoS validators, n.a. | PoH+PoS, n.a. | Physical stock, n.a. |
Sources: BTC price and cap in EUR and supply from CoinGecko; Ethereum and Solana activity metrics from Token Terminal; BTC transactions and avg fee from YCharts; ETH avg fee from YCharts; Solana avg fee from Token Terminal; Gold spot from TradingEconomics; ECB ref rate for EUR conversion. (CoinGecko)
Notes:
- Where “DATA NEEDED” appears, see Appendix for suggested sources and approach.
- Fees leaderboard values are Token Terminal aggregates that update continuously. (Token Terminal)
5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions
Model horizon: Next 3 years ending Oct 2028, focus on network value drivers and price scenarios for BTC_EUR.
Core drivers and assumptions
- Supply: Starting supply 19,934,193 BTC. Annual issuance fixed by protocol at ~164,250 BTC until the 2028 halving. Inflation ~0.824% this epoch. Sources above. (CoinGecko)
- Demand proxy 1 – ETF/ETP accumulation:
- US ETFs hold ~1.361M BTC as of 13 Oct 2025. Base case adds +350k BTC net over 12 months, +600k over 36 months. Sensitivity in Valuation section. (Bitbo)
- Europe ETPs assumed net +60k BTC over 36 months across issuers, scaling from current AUM base. Benchmarks include 21Shares products on Xetra. (JustETF)
- Demand proxy 2 – On-chain participation:
- Active addresses trend flat to up modestly from ~11.0M monthly. Base case CAGR +4%. Source: Token Terminal baseline. (Token Terminal)
- Fees activity and L2:
- Avg fee environment remains benign with episodic spikes. Lightning capacity has trended lower in 2025 yet interpreted by some as structural evolution rather than shrinkage in usage. Base case assumes flat LN public capacity contribution to throughput. (CryptoSlate)
- Security cost curve:
- Hash rate assumed in base case to track price with elasticity ~0.7, starting from ~1.14 ZH/s. (YCharts)
- FX:
- For EUR translation we use ECB EURUSD 1.1569 as of 13 Oct 2025 for static look-through; sensitivity provided. (European Central Bank)
Scenario matrix — 12 months forward (Oct 2026)
| Scenario | MVRV assumption | Realized cap assumption (USD) | Implied market cap (USD) | Supply used (BTC) | Implied BTC price (USD) | EUR conversion at 1.1569 | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 3.0 | $1.25T | $3.75T | 20.10M | $186,567 | €161,265 | Sustained ETF net demand, reflation macro, low real yields. |
| Base | 2.4 | $1.20T | $2.88T | 20.10M | $143,284 | €123,851 | Continued inflows, steady activity, moderate multiple. |
| Bear | 1.6 | $1.00T | $1.60T | 20.10M | $79,602 | €68,806 | ETF outflows, tighter liquidity, higher real yields. |
- Calculations:
- Price = Market cap ÷ Supply. EUR = USD ÷ 1.1569. See calculator outputs in footnotes. ECB FX ref above. Glassnode MVRV methodology notes used to anchor cycle multiple ranges. (European Central Bank)
3-year view (to Oct 2028, before next halving) — directional
- Supply: +~493k BTC net over three years before 2028 halving.
- Cumulative ETF/ETP demand: Base +660k to +900k BTC net adds over three years across US and Europe. Sources: current holdings and flow run-rates from CoinShares and issuer disclosures. (CoinShares)
- Base-case 2028 valuation anchor: Realized cap $1.35T, MVRV 2.0 to 2.4, implying market cap $2.7T to $3.2T and EUR price range €116k to €138k at current FX, subject to cycle timing and macro.
6) Valuation
Primary method: Realized-cap multiple framework
- Realized cap now: ~$1.05T (1 Sep 2025). (Yahoo Finance)
- Cycle behavior: Glassnode’s MVRV research shows tops often occur at MVRV > 3.5, while lows cluster below 1.0. We avoid peak multiples and anchor at 2.4 for base, 3.0 for bull, 1.6 for bear. (docs.glassnode.com)
- Base case: Realized cap drifts to $1.20T with ongoing distribution to higher-cost buyers. Apply 2.4x MVRV to get $2.88T market cap. Divide by 20.10M supply to get $143,284 per BTC, then convert to €123,851, which we round to €124,000 12-month target. FX per ECB. (European Central Bank)
Cross-checks
- Comparative macro hedge vs gold: With gold at ~€3,591/oz, BTC’s implied scarcity and portability sustain a digital-gold premium despite higher volatility. Gold’s new high underpins the scarcity bid that also benefits BTC. (Trading Economics)
- Fees and activity sanity check: Token Terminal lists BTC fees at ~$1.9B trailing period vs $5.6B for ETH, yet BTC’s value accrual narrative hinges on scarcity and demand capture via ETFs rather than fee income. (Token Terminal)
- Mining cost floor: MacroMicro average mining cost near $111k provides a soft cost-of-production anchor; spot is close in USD terms, supportive into 2026 if hash price normalizes. (MacroMicro)
Implied forward multiple vs peers
Traditional equity P/E comparison is not meaningful. We instead compare MVRV and NVT ranges. Current conditions sit near mid-cycle bands based on historical Glassnode ranges and MacroMicro NVT context. (Glassnode Insights)
7) Key Risks
- Policy and rule shocks
- New restrictions on spot ETFs, taxation changes, or exchange crackdowns could drive outflows and widen basis. ETF flow sensitivity is high after record weekly inflows. (CoinShares)
- Macro liquidity and real rates
- A sharp rise in real yields or a USD squeeze could compress risk-asset multiples, including Bitcoin, as seen during recent tariff-driven drawdown. (Reuters)
- Market structure and leverage
- Fast liquidity withdrawal in derivatives caused the largest crypto liquidation (~$19B) in history on 10–11 Oct 2025. Repeat events could produce gap moves that temporarily dislocate ETF flow support. (Reuters)
- Security and protocol economics
- If fees fail to scale post-subsidy in future epochs, miner incentives could weaken. While hash rate is near highs, economics can tighten with price weakness and higher energy costs. (YCharts)
- Technology and L2 adoption path
- Lightning public capacity has decreased since late 2023, which some interpret as neutral, others as waning L2 usage. If L2s fail to expand, medium-term throughput narrative weakens. (CryptoSlate)
- Competition for blockspace and investor dollars
- ETH and SOL capture higher aggregate fees and very large active user bases. Narrative rotation toward high-throughput chains could dilute incremental capital flowing to BTC. (Token Terminal)
8) Appendix
A) Expanded models and calculations
A1. Supply and inflation
- Block reward: 3.125 BTC since 20 Apr 2024 halving at block 840,000. (CoinWarz)
- Blocks per year: 144 per day × 365 = 52,560.
- Annual issuance: 3.125 × 52,560 = 164,250 BTC.
- Inflation: 164,250 ÷ 19,934,193 = 0.824%. Spot supply CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)
A2. ETF footprint
- US ETFs holdings share: 1,361,185 ÷ 19,934,193 = 6.83% of supply. Sources: Bitbo US ETF tracker and CoinGecko supply. (Bitbo)
- Flow visibility: CoinShares weekly flows $5.95B week ended 4 Oct; $3.17B last week with record ETP volumes of $53B. (CoinShares)
A3. Hash rate
- Latest: ~1.14 ZH/s on 13 Oct 2025. Use as security proxy. (YCharts)
A4. Transactions and fees
- Transactions/day: ~492k on 13 Oct 2025. (YCharts)
- Avg BTC fee: ~$0.68 latest. (YCharts)
- ETH avg fee: ~$0.375 latest. (YCharts)
A5. FX conversion
- ECB EURUSD ref: 1 EUR = 1.1569 USD on 13 Oct 2025. Used throughout for EUR conversions. (European Central Bank)
- Gold EUR price: 4,154.75 ÷ 1.1569 = €3,591/oz. Source USD spot from TradingEconomics. (Trading Economics)
A6. 12-month target construction
- Base realized cap path: $1.05T to $1.20T
- MVRV: 2.4 base
- Implied market cap: 1.20T × 2.4 = $2.88T
- Supply: 20.10M BTC
- USD price: 2.88T ÷ 20.10M = $143,284
- EUR price: $143,284 ÷ 1.1569 = €123,851 → rounded €124,000 target. (Yahoo Finance)
A7. Peer table data sources
- BTC EUR spot, market cap, supply, 1Y performance: CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)
- ETH monthly active addresses: Token Terminal ~8.6M latest. (Token Terminal)
- BTC monthly active addresses: Token Terminal ~11.0M latest. (Token Terminal)
- SOL monthly active addresses: Token Terminal ~37.3M latest. (Token Terminal)
- Fees leaderboard: Token Terminal. (Token Terminal)
B) KPI dashboard candidates for ongoing monitoring
- Realized cap, MVRV, MVRV-Z: Glassnode Studio. (Glassnode Studio)
- NVT ratio: MacroMicro or CryptoQuant. (MacroMicro)
- Hash rate and difficulty: YCharts and CoinWarz. (YCharts)
- ETF flows: CoinShares weekly flows, FT and ETF.com for issuer AUM. (CoinShares)
C) Data gaps flagged and suggested sources
- BTC adjusted transfer value 7-dma for precise NVT: DATA NEEDED. Suggested source: Coin Metrics “Network Data Pro.” (Coin Metrics)
- BTC Lightning economic throughput beyond public capacity: DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: 1ml.com, Amboss, academic routing datasets.
- ETH and SOL EUR spot in a synchronized timestamp for strict EUR peer comparison: DATA NEEDED. Suggested: CoinGecko currency switch for each asset with timestamped quotes. (CoinGecko)
D) Disclosure boilerplate
This report cites third-party data believed to be reliable. All figures are as of the dates indicated. Digital assets are volatile and can lead to loss of principal. This document is generated by AI for information purposes only and should not be used for investment advice. No solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security or digital asset is intended. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser.