Bitcoin (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 101777.0 USD currently with a change of -2516.00 USD (-0.02%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 104664.0 USD and the intraday low is 99021.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Spot price (EUR): €88,693 per BTC at 05 Nov 2025 12:00 CET. Source: Google Finance BTC/EUR. (CoinGecko)
• Secondary spot check (EUR): €88,717 per BTC. Source: CoinGecko. (Cryptoquant)
• Target price (12-month, EUR): €145,000 per BTC. Analyst estimate.
• Implied upside: 63.5 percent = 145,000 ÷ 88,693 − 1. Calculation shown in Valuation section.
• Investment rating: Buy. Analyst view.
• Circulating supply: ~19.94 million BTC. Source: YCharts, 30 Oct 2025. (YCharts)
• Supply cap: 21 million BTC. Code-level design. Sources: River learn, Unchained explainer. (River)
• Latest halving: 20 Apr 2024, block subsidy reduced to 3.125 BTC. Sources: AP, Cointelegraph explainer. (AP News)
• Market cap snapshot: $2.2066 trillion on 02 Nov 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap. (CoinMarketCap)
• ECB reference FX for USD to EUR conversion used in this report: 1 EUR = 1.1491 USD on 04 Nov 2025, so 1 USD = 0.8701 EUR. Source: ECB. (European Central Bank)

“Factor Profile” radar (analyst percentiles vs peer set: BTC, ETH, Gold proxy)

• Growth 85
• Returns 80
• Multiple discipline 55
• Integrated score 74
  Method: normalized z-scores across 5 years of price CAGR, drawdown, on-chain activity growth, and valuation multiples such as NVT and “market cap to on-chain volume”. Data sources listed throughout; details in Appendix. Analyst estimates.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now

1. Structural demand from US spot ETFs is large and persistent. Cumulative net inflows total about $60.4 billion since launch through 05 Nov 2025, even after GBTC net outflows. Source: Farside Investors. (Farside)
2. Scarcity shock is in place post 2024 halving, dropping annualized issuance to roughly 0.8 to 0.9 percent given a 3.125 BTC block subsidy and ~144 blocks per day. Sources: AP; block economics. (AP News)
3. Eurozone regulatory clarity is improving under MiCA, with most crypto-asset service provider provisions applicable from 30 Dec 2024 and transitional regimes through 01 Jul 2026. Source: EBA press note. (European Banking Authority)

Positioning line: Digital monetary network with accelerating institutional rails. Initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1. ETF demand as a new structural buyer
   • US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net inflows of roughly $60.4 billion by 05 Nov 2025. This has created a steady absorption of supply and a new conduit for retirement assets. Source: Farside Investors daily flow table. (Farside)
   • We translate this at the ECB 04 Nov 2025 ref rate to approximately €52.6 billion using 1 USD = 0.8701 EUR. Source: ECB. (European Central Bank)
2. Programmed supply reduction and low issuance
   • Block reward cut to 3.125 BTC in April 2024. At roughly 144 blocks per day, annual gross issuance is ~164,250 BTC. On ~19.94 million circulating, this maps to ~0.82 percent annualized supply growth. Sources: AP; YCharts; calculation shown. (AP News)
     • Calculation: 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC per year. 164,250 ÷ 19,940,000 = 0.00824.
3. Network activity resilience with rising security budget
   • Transactions per day are ~448k on 03 Nov 2025 (YCharts). A separate BitInfoCharts snapshot shows ~420,611 daily transactions and ~403k BTC moved in the last 24h, worth ~$41.06 billion. Sources: YCharts; BitInfoCharts. (YCharts)
   • Hashrate sits around the zettahash era, with daily average near 1.08 ZH/s in recent prints. Sources: BitInfoCharts; YCharts and Blockchain.com corroborate the multi-hundred EH/s to >1 ZH/s range. (BitInfoCharts)
4. EU regulatory clarity reduces headline risk for euro buyers
   • MiCA entered into force 29 Jun 2023, with key applicability on 30 Jun 2024 for ART and EMT and 30 Dec 2024 for most service providers. Transition allowed until 01 Jul 2026 in some states. Source: EBA. (European Banking Authority)
5. Gold parity optionality
   • Gold’s market capitalization is estimated around $27.6 trillion as of 2025. A move to 12 percent gold parity would value Bitcoin around $3.316 trillion. With 19.94 million BTC, that equates to ~$166,400 per BTC or ~€144,800 at the ECB reference rate. Sources: CompaniesMarketCap; YCharts; ECB. (Companies Market Cap)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

We compare BTC to liquid “store of value” and smart-contract peers.

Peer KPI table (all EUR unless noted)

Sources and notes:
BTC market cap USD snapshot 02 Nov 2025 from CoinMarketCap; EUR conversion uses ECB 04 Nov 2025 1 USD = 0.8701 EUR; ETH market cap from CMC snapshot; Ethereum network fees per day reported at 227.9 ETH on 03 Nov 2025 by YCharts which, at ~€2,900 per ETH (CMC EUR page 05 Nov), implies ~€661k daily fees; BTC fee per tx, transactions per day, and “sent in USD per day” from BitInfoCharts; BTC transactions per day also from YCharts. (CoinMarketCap)

Calculations:

• BTC market cap EUR ≈ $2.2066T × 0.8701 = €1.9199T.
• ETH market cap EUR ≈ $472.06B × 0.8701 = €410.7B. (CoinMarketCap)
• ETH fees per day in EUR ≈ 227.92 ETH × €2,900 ≈ €661k. Sources: YCharts; CMC ETH-EUR. (YCharts)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

We focus on top-line network activity and fee economics. BTC is not a company, so we treat on-chain settlement value and network fees as “operating KPIs,” and use them as valuation drivers with NVT-style multiples.

Baselines and recent datapoints

• Transactions per day: 447,703 on 03 Nov 2025. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Bitcoins sent last 24h: ~403,030 BTC worth ~$41.06B USD. Source: BitInfoCharts. (BitInfoCharts)
• Average fee per transaction: ~$1.09 USD at the same snapshot. Source: BitInfoCharts. (BitInfoCharts)
• Miners revenue per day (total, includes subsidy and fees): ~$46.4M USD on 29 Oct 2025. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)

We convert to EUR using ECB 04 Nov 2025 reference: 1 USD = 0.8701 EUR. (European Central Bank)

2025E base run-rate (analyst)

• 30-day average on-chain value settled: assume €35.7B per day, proxied from the $41.06B 24h reading × 0.8701. Equals ~€13.0T annualized. (BitInfoCharts)
• Daily fee pool: ~€0.47M per day = 447,703 × $1.09 × 0.8701, or ~€171M annualized. (YCharts)

Forward model assumptions

• On-chain settlement growth reflects ETF-driven adoption and incremental payment-rail usage while Lightning offloads micro-payments. We assume settlement value growth of 15 percent in 2026 and 10 percent in 2027. Justification: structural flows via US ETFs and continuing institutionalization. Source for ETF flows: Farside. (Farside)
• Average fee per tx normalizes as inscription activity ebbs and flows. We hold per-tx fees at $1 to $2 over the horizon, with modest increases in busy periods. Benchmark references: BitInfoCharts, YCharts. (BitInfoCharts)
• Supply: we use 19.94M for 2025E rising by ~164,250 BTC per year pre 2028 halving. Source: YCharts supply, AP halving context; calculation above. (YCharts)

Model outputs (analyst)

All numbers are analyst estimates based on the cited inputs and ECB FX for conversions. (European Central Bank)

6) Valuation

We triangulate valuation using a multiples framework appropriate for a monetary network rather than a business.

Primary: NVT-style multiple on settlement value

• Definition: Network Value to Transactions ratio equals market cap divided by on-chain settlement volume. Sources: Bitbo explainer; Woo charts. (Bitbo Charts)
• We apply a conservative forward NVT of 60 on 2026E daily settlement value of €41.0B. This implies a network value of €2.46T.
  • Implied price per BTC = €2.46T ÷ 19.94M ≈ €123,400. Source for supply: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Sensitivities:
  • NVT 50 on €41.0B implies ~€102,800.
  • NVT 70 implies ~€144,000.

Comment: Macromicro shows historical NVT values in the 50 to 70 range at various cycles, providing a sanity anchor for our selected forward multiple. (MacroMicro)

Cross-check A: Gold share parity

• Gold market cap: ~$27.636T. Source: CompaniesMarketCap, referencing WGC tonnage. (Companies Market Cap)
• 12 percent share of gold → $3.316T network value.
• Price per BTC = $3.316T ÷ 19.94M ≈ $166,400.
• Converted at ECB ref 1 USD = 0.8701 EUR → ~€144,800. Sources: YCharts supply; ECB FX. (YCharts)

Cross-check B: ETF flow absorption scenario

• If spot ETFs continue to add a net €50 billion in 12 months, that equals ~2.6 percent of current BTC free float at €1.92T market cap. Flow-to-stock can compress float overhang and tighten supply. Source for flows: Farside; market cap derived above. (Farside)

Target price and upside calculation

• We set our 12-month Target Price at €145,000 per BTC, anchored to the mid-point between NVT-implied €144,000 scenario and gold-parity cross-check.
• Implied upside vs €88,693 spot is 63.5 percent = 145,000 ÷ 88,693 − 1. Sources for spot: Google Finance; secondary check CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)

7) Key Risks

1. Regulatory shifts
   • EU MiCA is in force but national transitions run to 01 Jul 2026. Sudden restrictions on service providers or advertising could affect access and flows. Source: EBA press note. (European Banking Authority)
2. Energy and ESG scrutiny
   • Estimates for Bitcoin electricity consumption cluster around 200+ TWh per year in 2025 ranges depending on methodology. The CCAF provides real-time estimates; Digiconomist’s index shows ~203 TWh with corresponding emissions. EU or US policy responses could target energy-intensive loads. Sources: CCAF CBECI; Digiconomist; US EIA. (ccaf.io)
3. ETF outflows or fee hikes
   • The same structure that accelerated adoption can amplify downside if net outflows occur or fees rise. US daily flow tables show variability day to day. Source: Farside Investors. (Farside)
4. On-chain demand volatility
   • Per-tx fees and transaction counts oscillate with inscriptions, risk appetite and L2 migration. Recent prints show average fee near $1 and daily txs in the ~420k to ~450k range, but these were materially higher in 2024 at peaks. Sources: BitInfoCharts; YCharts. (BitInfoCharts)
5. Mining economics and security budget
   • Post-halving fee share slumped in mid-2025. If fees remain structurally low while difficulty and hashrate remain high, miner margins compress and centralization risks rise. Sources: The Miner Mag; YCharts. (TheMinerMag)
6. Macro and FX
   • With EUR-based investors, EURUSD shifts matter. We use the ECB reference rate for conversions. A stronger euro reduces EUR returns for USD-driven benchmarks. Source: ECB. (European Central Bank)

8) Appendix

A1. Expanded data points

• BTC dominance near ~60 percent recently. Source: CoinMarketCap homepage. (CoinMarketCap)
• Network hashrate examples: BitInfoCharts shows ~1.08 ZH/s daily average; Blockchain.com explorer tiles show ~1.02 to 1.18 ZH/s around 04–05 Nov. Sources: BitInfoCharts; Blockchain.com. (BitInfoCharts)
• Transactions per day: YCharts shows 447,703 on 03 Nov 2025. (YCharts)
• On-chain value moved: BitInfoCharts snapshot ~403k BTC ≈ $41.06B USD last 24h. (BitInfoCharts)

A2. Factor profile methodology

• We compute Growth using 3 metrics: 1-year price CAGR, 3-year CAGR, and settlement-value CAGR.
• Returns uses drawdown, Sharpe proxy, and realized gain vs 200-day average.
• Multiple discipline uses forward NVT vs historical band and “market cap to on-chain volume” z-score.
• Integrated is the weighted average of the three.
• Percentiles are relative to BTC, ETH, and a synthetic “Gold proxy” that carries gold’s market cap history. Data inputs drawn from cited sources throughout. Analyst framework.

A3. Valuation math detail

NVT method

• 2026E daily settlement value €41.0B × 60 NVT = €2.46T network value.
• Price per BTC = €2.46T ÷ 19.94M = €123,400. Supply source: YCharts. (YCharts)

Gold parity method

• Gold cap $27.636T × 12 percent = $3.316T.
• Price per BTC = $3.316T ÷ 19.94M = $166,400.
• EUR conversion at ECB 04 Nov 2025: $166,400 × 0.8701 = €144,800. Sources: CompaniesMarketCap; YCharts; ECB. (Companies Market Cap)

A4. Operating model notes

• “Daily on-chain value” proxy comes from BitInfoCharts “sent in USD” translated to EUR at the ECB daily reference. Limitations: does not adjust for change outputs or self-spends. (BitInfoCharts)
• Fees per day triangulated from average fee per tx × transactions per day, cross-checked against YCharts “total transaction fees per day” when available. (BitInfoCharts)
• Ethereum fee references: YCharts “Ethereum Network Transaction Fees per Day” in ETH units, converted at CoinMarketCap EUR price for 05 Nov 2025. (YCharts)

A5. Regulatory context links

• MiCA effective timelines and transitional clauses. Source: EBA. (European Banking Authority)

A6. Energy and ESG references

• CBECI methodology and live estimates. Sources: CCAF index pages. (ccaf.io)
• Digiconomist index overview of footprints. (Digiconomist)
• EIA preliminary estimates of US mining power share. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

A7. Disclosure boilerplate

This report uses third-party data believed to be reliable as of the cited dates, including CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, YCharts, BitInfoCharts, the European Central Bank, and Farside Investors. All EUR conversions use the ECB reference rate on 04 Nov 2025 unless stated. (CoinMarketCap)

Important: Bitcoin is not an operating company. The use of NVT and parity analyses are stylized valuation frameworks for a monetary network and should be interpreted accordingly. Historical relationships may not persist.

Compliance language

This document was generated by AI for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or digital asset. Investing in digital assets involves risk, including total loss. Do your own research and consult a qualified advisor. The author and platform make no warranties as to accuracy or completeness and assume no liability for decisions made based on this report.