Bitcoin (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin quoted in EUR
• Current price (spot): €82,511 per BTC. Source: CoinMarketCap BTC→EUR page, accessed 16 Nov 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
• Target price (12-month): €122,163
  • Method: top-down “share of gold” approach using World Gold Council above-ground stock and current gold spot price. Details in Valuation. (World Gold Council)
• Implied upside: 48.1% vs spot. Calculation: 122,162.9 ÷ 82,511.06 − 1. FX conversion uses ECB reference EUR 1 = USD 1.1648 on 14 Nov 2025. (European Central Bank)
• Investment rating: Buy

Quick factor profile (author’s percentile view vs large-cap crypto peers ETH and SOL; definitions in Section 4):

• Growth: 80th percentile (ETF adoption, post-halving cycle)
• Returns: 75th percentile (store-of-value behavior, improving security budget)
• Multiple: 65th percentile (trades rich vs fee base, cheaper vs gold share)
• Integrated: 76th percentile (composite of the above, equal weights)

Basis: peer data from CoinMarketCap, CryptoFees, and on-chain activity. All percentiles are author estimates using the latest sources cited in Sections 3–4. (CoinMarketCap)

12-month price chart (USD series)

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 95893.0 USD currently with a change of -117.00 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 96399.0 USD and the intraday low is 94859.0 USD.

Reference series BTCUSD (for charting). Current USD = 95,893 which converts to ~€82.3k at the ECB ref. rate. (European Central Bank)

At-a-glance metrics

• Market cap: $1.91T. Circulating supply: ~19.95M BTC. Source: CoinMarketCap live page, 16 Nov 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
• Daily confirmed transactions: ~451k on 12 Nov 2025. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Transactions per Day.” (YCharts)
• Network hash rate: ~1.09 ZH/s on 12 Nov 2025. Source: YCharts “Bitcoin Network Hash Rate.” (YCharts)
• Bitcoin spot ETFs: BlackRock IBIT AUM $75.4B as of 14 Nov 2025. Industry cumulative spot-ETF net inflows since launch ~$59.9B as of 4 Nov 2025. (BlackRock)
• ECB FX reference used for conversions: EUR 1 = USD 1.1648 on 14 Nov 2025. (European Central Bank)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — three bullets

• ETF flow engine: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed tens of billions since Jan 2024, institutionalizing access and deepening liquidity. IBIT alone stands at ~$75B AUM. (BlackRock)
• Structural scarcity: The Apr 20, 2024 halving cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, lowering annualized issuance to roughly 0.9% and reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity. (CoinGecko)
• Relative value vs gold: With gold’s above-ground stock worth about $28.4T at current prices, a move from ~6.7% toward 10% share underpins our 12-month €122k target. (World Gold Council)

Positioning line:
Digital scarcity core asset. Initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1. ETF-led demand normalization
   • US spot ETFs provide compliant wrappers for pensions, wealth platforms, and corporate treasuries. IBIT AUM is $75.4B as of 14 Nov 2025. Industry cumulative net inflows since launch estimated ~$59.9B as of 4 Nov 2025. These vehicles compress frictions and expand the investor base. (BlackRock)
2. Supply discipline after the fourth halving
   • Block subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC at block height 840,000 on Apr 20, 2024. Issuance rate dropped to roughly 0.85–0.9% annualized, now below gold’s long-run supply growth, strengthening the “hardest money” narrative. (CoinGecko)
3. Macro hedging alongside gold
   • Gold spot has traded near or above $4,000/oz recently. WGC estimates above-ground stocks at ~216,265 tonnes at end-2024. The implied gold market value is ~$28.4T at ~$4,083/oz, providing a large adjacent store-of-value pool from which Bitcoin can take incremental share. (World Gold Council)
4. Healthy network activity and security budget
   • Daily confirmed BTC transactions averaged in the ~400–500k range in recent weeks. Hash rate near 1.09 ZH/s underpins security even post-halving. Miners’ daily revenue on 12 Nov 2025 was $46.3M, up ~7.7% year over year. (YCharts)
5. Fee floor supports long-term sustainability
   • 7-day average daily fees ~$2.35–2.58M in late 2025 suggest persistent demand for scarce blockspace and a non-zero fee floor. While fee cycles are volatile, they strengthen the transition toward fee-supported security over decades. (cryptofees.info)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL). Latest data as of 13–16 Nov 2025.

Sources: BTC and ETH market caps: CMC, 16 Nov 2025; SOL live data: CMC, 16 Nov 2025; fees: CryptoFees; BTC tx count: YCharts. For ETH supply dynamics see coverage on deflationary episodes post-Merge and 2025 variability. (CoinMarketCap)

Notes:
• Populate ETH and SOL “daily tx count” with the latest public dashboard readings for full comparability. Suggested sources: Etherscan and Solscan, or The Block’s data hub. DATA NEEDED.
• Where peers are international, convert to EUR using ECB reference rates if needed for precise EUR comparisons. (European Central Bank)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Framework
We build a three-year “network economics” model for BTC focused on the top line that accrues to the network’s security budget: block subsidy revenue and transaction fee revenue. We do not model an income statement or cash flows for a corporate entity. Instead we quantify macro drivers that historically correlate with valuation regimes for monetary assets.

Key drivers and baselines (Nov 2025):

• Supply and issuance
  • Post-halving block reward: 3.125 BTC. Expected blocks per day: ~144. Annualized new supply: ~450 BTC/day × 365 = 164,250 BTC. Issuance rate ~0.85–0.9% on ~19.95M outstanding. (CoinGecko)
• Network usage
  • Daily confirmed transactions: recent prints around ~451k. We treat this as a baseline and apply growth assumptions by scenario. (YCharts)
• Fee intensity
  • 7-day average daily fees: ~$2.35–2.58M, implying annualized ~$0.86–0.94B. We use a midpoint $0.90B (≈ €0.77B at ECB ref. FX 1.1648 USD per EUR) as 2025E base. (cryptofees.info)
• Miner revenue context
  • Total miner revenue per day on 12 Nov 2025: $46.34M, combining subsidy plus fees. This aligns with a healthy security budget. (YCharts)

Scenarios and 3-year projections (calendar years)

Assumptions are author estimates; FX held constant at the latest ECB reference for EUR translations; numbers rounded.

1. Base case
   • Daily transactions grow +5% per year from 451k.
   • Average daily fees scale to $2.8M in 2026, $3.0M in 2027, $3.3M in 2028 as inscriptions and ordinal-like demand intermittently tighten blockspace.
   • Annual fee revenue: 2026 $1.02B, 2027 $1.10B, 2028 $1.21B. EUR: €0.88B, €0.95B, €1.04B at ECB FX. (European Central Bank)
   • Subsidy units: ~164,250 BTC per year until the 2028 halving, then halves. Price path assumed to track our valuation section midpoint, averaging $110k in 2026 and $125k in 2027 before the halving, then $135k average pre-2028 halving.
   • Implied subsidy revenue: 2026 $18.1B, 2027 $20.5B, 2028 pre-halving run-rate $22.2B; post-halving 2H28 run-rate halves on units. (Author estimates.)
2. Bull case
   • ETF net inflows re-accelerate to a cumulative >$80B by mid-2026 as rate cuts progress and new domiciles list spot ETFs. Daily fees step up to $4–5M on average by 2027. Daily transactions grow +10% per year.
   • Annual fee revenue 2026–2028: $1.30B, $1.60B, $1.80B. (Author estimates; ETF flows context from CoinShares weekly updates and issuer AUM.) (CoinShares)
3. Bear case
   • Risk-off causes >$10B monthly ETF outflow episodes for short stretches in 2026. Fee cycle softens toward $1.8–2.0M/day. Daily transactions flat.
   • Annual fee revenue 2026–2028: $0.66–0.73B, $0.70–0.80B, $0.75–0.85B. (Author estimates; outflow precedent examples cited in Nov 2025 headlines.) (Yahoo Finance)

Operating KPI bridge (base case, author estimates)

• Users proxy: daily confirmed tx move from 451k to ~476k by 2027 and ~500k by 2028 while average fee per tx trends up modestly given inscription cycles. (YCharts)

What would change our model:

• A lasting shift in fee mix or L2 migration reducing L1 fees durably below $2M/day.
• Sharp ETF outflow regime changes. (Yahoo Finance)

6) Valuation

Primary method: “Share of gold” top-down

• Step 1: Gold market value
  • Above-ground gold stock: ~216,265 tonnes at end-2024. 1 tonne = 32,150.7466 oz. Spot gold recently ~$4,083/oz.
  • Implied market value ≈ $28.4T. Computation: 216,265,000 kg × 32,150.7466 oz/kg ≈ 6.953B oz; × $4,082.5/oz ≈ $28.39T. Sources: WGC for tonnes, MetalsDaily for live price. (World Gold Council)
• Step 2: Bitcoin market cap and current share
  • BTC market cap ~$1.91T on 16 Nov 2025. Share of gold ≈ 6.74% today. (CoinMarketCap)
• Step 3: Target share
  • We target a 10% share in 12 months reflecting continued institutional adoption via ETFs and the comparative scarcity profile post-halving.
• Step 4: Target market cap and price
  • Target BTC market cap = 10% × $28.39T ≈ $2.84T.
  • Using current circulating supply ~19.95M BTC, target price ≈ $142.3k. ECB FX translates to ~€122.2k. Sources for supply and FX: CMC and ECB reference rate 14 Nov 2025. (CoinMarketCap)

Cross-checks

1. Market cap to fee base (“P/F”)
   • BTC annualized fee base ~$0.86–0.94B vs market cap $1.91T implies P/F ≈ 2,000–2,200x, high because fees are only a partial fundamental for a monetary asset. ETH’s fee base ~$2.46B at market cap ~$387B implies P/F ≈ 157x. Read as relative, not absolute, and consistent with BTC’s store-of-value use case. (cryptofees.info)
2. Halving scarcity
   • Issuance dropped to ~0.85–0.9% in Apr 2024, structurally improving stock-to-flow. As a directional check it supports share expansion versus gold’s long-run ~1.5–2% supply growth. (Ark Invest)
3. Sentiment and flows
   • Spot ETF AUM and cumulative inflows provide an incremental demand floor. Recent weekly data show flows can swing negative in risk-off regimes, framing near-term volatility. (CoinShares)

Valuation take-away

• Our €122k 12-month target equates to ~$142k, a ~48% upside vs €82.5k spot, and rests on Bitcoin lifting its share of the global store-of-value pool toward 10% under continued institutional adoption. (CoinMarketCap)

7) Key Risks

We rank risks by probability × impact and discuss mitigants.

1. ETF outflows and liquidity cycles
   • Recent episodes showed >$0.8B daily net outflows across US spot ETFs. A prolonged outflow regime would weigh on price and velocity. Mitigant: broadening investor base and possible new domiciles. (Yahoo Finance)
2. Macro and real yields
   • Rising real rates or strong USD periods have historically pressured crypto multiples. ECB and Fed paths remain uncertain into 2026. (Reuters)
3. Fee compression and L2 migration
   • If L1 fees trend below $2M/day for long periods, the “security budget” lens weakens. Watch CryptoFees and on-chain fee series for early signals. (cryptofees.info)
4. Regulatory shocks
   • Adverse policy actions in major markets could restrict access, capital flows, or custody for ETFs and ETPs. Ongoing monitoring of rulemaking and enforcement needed. DATA NEEDED for any newly proposed acts since Oct–Nov 2025.
5. Energy and ESG scrutiny
   • Bitcoin’s energy consumption remains politically sensitive. Estimates of the network’s footprint draw attention during power-price spikes. Mitigant: miner shift to curtailed and renewable power. (Digiconomist)
6. Technology and competition
   • Alternative L1s and stablecoin rails absorb transactional demand, reducing on-chain BTC activity relevance. ETH and SOL fee and throughput improvements are ongoing. (Medium)
7. Cycle dynamics weaker than history
   • 2024–2025 performance has been more muted relative to prior post-halving cycles, implying a mature regime with lower beta. (MarketWatch)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded model tables (author estimates)

All values rounded. FX EUR 1 = USD 1.1648.

Fee revenue bridge (USD, then EUR)

Source for baseline signals: YCharts tx count, CryptoFees 7-day fee averages, ECB FX for EUR translation. (YCharts)

Subsidy units and implied revenue (USD) — base case price path

Price path is an internal assumption for scaling subsidy economics and not a price target. See Section 6 for our explicit 12-month target. Halving expected again in 2028, reducing the block reward to 1.5625 BTC thereafter. (CoinGecko)

Sensitivity: target share of gold vs price

• 8% share → price ≈ $113.8k → €97.7k
• 10% share → price ≈ $142.3k → €122.2k
• 12% share → price ≈ $170.8k → €146.7k
  Assumes constant 19.95M circulating and current gold price inputs. Sources: WGC tonnage, live gold, ECB FX. (World Gold Council)

B) Peer KPI table detail and sources

• BTC market cap and supply: CMC live page. (CoinMarketCap)
• ETH market cap and supply: CMC live page. (CoinMarketCap)
• SOL market cap and circulating supply: CMC live page. (CoinMarketCap)
• Fee series: CryptoFees.info. (cryptofees.info)
• BTC tx per day: YCharts series. (YCharts)

C) Methods notes

• Why “share of gold”: Bitcoin and gold compete for store-of-value allocation. We anchor BTC value to a percentage of gold’s above-ground market value and test for plausibility with adoption and flow data. Inputs are transparent and regularly updated. (World Gold Council)
• Cross-check caution: “P/F” is not cash-flow based. It gauges valuation relative to on-chain fee throughput and is most useful as a relative cross-section vs peers with smart-contract activity. (cryptofees.info)

D) Disclosures and data gaps

• DATA NEEDED:
  • Latest 30-day realized volatility for BTC, ETH, SOL. Suggested sources: Kaiko, Coin Metrics.
  • ETH and SOL latest daily transaction counts and 7-day moving averages. Suggested sources: Etherscan, Solscan, The Block data. (The Block)

Compliance and disclaimer

This report is an informational research document generated by AI at your request. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation to buy or sell any asset, and may contain errors. Data and market prices are sourced as cited and are subject to change. Always do your own research, consider your specific objectives and constraints, and consult a licensed financial advisor before acting.

Sources cited: CoinMarketCap live pages and historical snapshots; ECB euro reference rates; World Gold Council; MetalsDaily price dashboard; YCharts on-chain series; CryptoFees; BlackRock iShares IBIT facts; CoinShares fund flow notes; various reputable financial media for context as cited inline. (CoinMarketCap)