The altii-BTC-Report 2026-03-31

Key Data Snapshot

Market Setup

Bitcoin trades in a correction phase, currently priced at 58,882 EUR. The asset faces significant headwinds as it drops alongside software and AI equities following the leak of Anthropic’s new model [T1]. Macro risks are escalating, with Ukraine adding uncertainty to the oil market, which weighs on broader risk assets [T3]. This environment has triggered a flight to safety, evidenced by retail selling pressure and a $171 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs in the largest single-day pullback in three weeks [T3]. Additionally, hedge fund veteran Andrew Beer suggests the market’s ability to forecast global events is broken, urging investors to prepare for the worst amid rising geopolitical tensions [T5].

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis for Bitcoin remains anchored in the transition to an “institutionalization era.” Regulated stablecoins are gaining share, embedding digital assets into core financial infrastructure [T1][T3]. North America leads in regulatory frameworks, facilitating this shift. A critical catalyst is Morgan Stanley’s entry into the spot bitcoin ETF race with a market-leading fee of 14 basis points [T1]. This fee compression could trigger a new war among asset managers, potentially shifting advisor allocations and driving significant inflows. Despite current volatility, the structural demand from corporate treasuries and the maturation of the ETF product suite support a long-term bullish outlook.

Bullish Drivers

Several structural drivers support the long-term thesis despite short-term volatility. Strategy continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin, purchasing approximately 45,000 BTC over the past 30 days while other corporate treasury holders have largely paused [T2]. ETFs collectively have seen $56 billion in inflows since their inception and are currently on pace for their first month of net inflows since October [T2]. Furthermore, institutional interest in the mining sector persists, as Exchange Traded Concepts increased its stake in Marathon Digital Holdings by nearly 50% in Q4 2025, signaling continued confidence in digital asset infrastructure [T4].

Relative Positioning vs Gold and Ethereum

Bitcoin is currently underperforming gold as a safe haven asset. Gold is seeing increased demand for liquidity, with Lion Global Investors launching a physical gold ETF amid volatility caused by the Iran war [T6]. Standard Chartered notes that gold has fulfilled its role of providing liquidity during uncertainty [T8]. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is behaving as a risk-on asset correlated with high-beta tech stocks, which have been battered during this market rout [T7]. Ethereum is experiencing similar selling pressure as Bitcoin, sliding alongside the broader crypto market due to the current risk-off sentiment [T3].

Scenario Framework

• Base Case: Bitcoin consolidates between 55,000 and 65,000 EUR. The Morgan Stanley ETF fee war drives advisor allocation, resulting in steady net inflows and a gradual recovery from the 200-day low.
• Bull Case: Geopolitical tensions de-escalate, reducing the flight to safety. Morgan Stanley’s ETF approval triggers a surge in institutional capital, pushing prices toward 80,000 EUR and reclaiming the 2025 ATH.
• Bear Case: Escalation of Middle East conflicts or regulatory hurdles stalls ETF inflows. Risk sentiment remains fragile, leading to a deeper liquidation that tests support levels near 45,000 EUR.

Valuation Discussion

Bitcoin is currently trading at a 45.3% discount to its October 2025 All-Time High of 107,662 EUR [T1]. This represents a significant valuation discount for an asset class with fixed supply and growing institutional demand. The Fully Diluted Valuation aligns closely with the current market cap, suggesting limited immediate dilution risk. The current valuation offers an attractive entry point for strategic investors, particularly as the asset undergoes a structural shift from speculative retail trading to regulated institutional custody.

Risks

The primary risks to the current thesis are macroeconomic and geopolitical. The market is experiencing extreme volatility, with experts warning that the ability to forecast global events is broken [T5]. Escalation of the conflict in Ukraine or Iran could trigger a sudden flight to safety, causing Bitcoin to underperform gold significantly [T3][T6]. Additionally, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the tech sector; a collapse in AI or software stocks could trigger further liquidations, as seen with the recent drop alongside software names [T1][T7].

Appendix

Sources

• Bitcoin price (BTC) slides alongside software stocks following leak of new Anthropic model – CoinDesk [T1]
• Strategy is accelerating its crypto purchases as rivals sit on the sidelines – CNBC [T2]
• Bitcoin (BTC) news: Macro risks mount as Ukraine adds to oil market uncertainty – CoinDesk [T3]
• Exchange Traded Concepts Boosts Marathon Digital Holdings Stake – National Today [T4]
• Why one hedge fund veteran is urging investors to ‘prepare for the worst’ – CNBC [T5]
• Lion Global Investors launches a physical gold ETF amid price volatility due to the Iran war – CNBC [T6]
• Gold and tech stocks drop simultaneously! Is now the chance for long-term accumulation in gold, or in tech stocks with strong rebound potential — keeping an eye on the easing of Middle East risks – Moomoo [T7]
• Gold has done its job providing investors with liquidity in times of uncertainty – Standard Chartered’s Cooper – KITCO [T8]

This report is AI-generated, for informational purposes only, and not investment advice. The views expressed herein are those of GLM 4.7 Flash and do not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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