The altii-Gold-Report 2026-04-14

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Key Data Snapshot

Macro Backdrop

The macro environment presents a bifurcated outlook for gold. On the negative side, real yields are rising, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Fed funds futures now price in a non-trivial possibility of a rate hike, and higher energy prices are rekindling inflation concerns that may alter monetary policy expectations [T1]. However, the structural backdrop remains supportive. The US dollar has lost over 12% versus a basket of currencies year-to-date, and trust in US bonds is deteriorating, with only a third of respondents expecting them to outperform peers [T3]. This shift is accelerating a long-term de-dollarization trend.

Investment Thesis

The core thesis for gold remains its role as a strategic hedge against fiscal deficits and currency debasement. Despite recent volatility, gold continues to act as an “anchor” in diversified portfolios, providing a necessary counterweight to equity and credit risks [T1][T7]. The current price action reflects a short-term liquidity squeeze rather than a fundamental loss of demand. As the Iran war shock fades, underlying demand drivers should reassert themselves, supporting the long-term case for gold as a store of value [T1].

Bullish Drivers

Structural demand from central banks is the primary bullish catalyst. BRICS+ nations now hold over 6,000 tonnes of gold, representing 17.4% of total global reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019 [T1]. This accumulation is driven by geopolitical risk and the desire to reduce reliance on the dollar. Individual nations are also repatriating reserves; France repatriated 129 tonnes of sovereign gold from the New York Fed, and Poland added 11 tonnes in March alone, becoming the most active buyer globally [T2][T5]. Furthermore, central banks now hold more gold than inflation-adjusted dollar reserves for the first time since the Bretton Woods II period [T2].

Relative Positioning vs Bitcoin and Ethereum

Gold is currently exhibiting characteristics of a risk asset rather than a traditional safe haven. Morgan Stanley analysts note that gold has plummeted alongside global asset classes during the recent Iran conflict and is not providing the expected diversification benefits [T8]. In contrast, Bitcoin dominance remains high at 57.25%, and silver has rallied nearly 150% over the last 12 months, driven by solar demand and supply deficits [T8]. This suggests that in the current liquidity environment, gold is competing with risk assets for capital rather than serving as a defensive hedge.

Scenario Framework

• Bearish Scenario: Real yields spike further if the Fed hikes rates to combat inflation. This increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, potentially triggering a deeper correction below 4,000 EUR.
• Base Case: Stagflationary pressures persist, keeping the dollar in a moderation trend. Central bank buying remains robust, supporting prices in a tight range around current levels.
• Bullish Scenario: Geopolitical tensions flare again, or the Fed signals rate cuts. Gold reclaims its safe-haven status, breaking above the 4,688.32 EUR ATH.

Valuation Discussion

Gold is trading 13.81% below its January 2026 all-time high of 4,688.32 EUR. This drawdown reflects recent liquidity pressures and rising real yields. However, given the structural increase in central bank reserves and the devaluation of the dollar, the current price of 4,039.74 EUR may represent fair value rather than a deep discount. The recent volatility appears to be a liquidity correction rather than a reversal of the multi-year uptrend.

Risks

The primary risks to the bullish thesis are immediate. Institutional cash on the sidelines has fallen to record lows, meaning there is less dry powder to support prices during downturns [T1]. Additionally, if real yields continue to rise, gold could face further selling pressure as investors rotate into income-generating assets. The risk that gold continues to underperform as a safe haven remains a key concern for portfolio managers [T8].

Appendix

Sources

• Gold’s demand drivers ‘should once again reassert themselves’ after Iran war shock fades – Merrill’s Avioli – Shanghai Metals Market [T1]
• Central banks’ concern over rising geopolitical tensions surges, survey shows – Reuters [T3]
• S&P 500: A Volatile Ride Ends at Zero Year-to-Date – Investing.com [T4]
• Op-Ed: How gold became national security infrastructure – Bitget [T5]
• Investors are questioning gold’s role in portfolios, says Morgan Stanley — but another metal is set to outperform – CNBC [T8]

This report is AI-generated for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any agency, entity, institution, or employer.

Important Note / Wichtiger Hinweis:

EN: This report may contain AI-assisted analysis or be generated entirely by AI, which processes market data from publicly available sources for which altii accepts no responsibility for its accuracy. We strongly advise against using this report as a basis for investment decisions.

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