1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin vs Euro, spot rate
• Current price: €104,100 per BTC at ~11:30 CET, 14 Aug 2025. Coinbase converter shows €104,106–€104,980 range intraday. We round to €104,100 for modeling. (Coinbase)
• FX used for USD cross-checks: EUR 1 = USD 1.1711 on 13 Aug 2025 ECB reference. Implies USD 1 = EUR 0.854. (European Central Bank)
• Circulating supply: ~19.91 million BTC as of 13 Aug 2025. (YCharts)
• New issuance after 2024 halving: 3.125 BTC per block since 19 Apr 2024, about 164,250 BTC per year at 144 blocks per day. Calculation: 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250. (Bitbo)
• Network security proxy: Hash rate fluctuating around 1.0 ZH/s in Aug 2025. (YCharts)

Rating and target

• Investment rating: Buy
• 12-month target price: €140,000 per BTC
• Implied upside: (Target ÷ Current − 1) = 140,000 ÷ 104,100 − 1 = +34%. Calculation detail: 140,000 ÷ 104,100 − 1 = 0.345 rounded.
  Cross-check in USD using ECB FX: €140,000 × 1.1711 = $163,954 target. Current ~$120,933 spot implies ~€103,264 at ECB FX, consistent with Coinbase prints. (European Central Bank, Coinbase)

12-month price chart
Historical USD chart shown for context. EUR level discussed above.

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 120933.0 USD currently with a change of 464.00 USD (0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 124234.0 USD and the intraday low is 120270.0 USD.

“Factor Profile” snapshot, internal composite ranks vs large-cap crypto set (BTC, ETH, SOL) and gold proxy

• Growth: 70th percentile. Inputs include YTD price +32% and accelerating institutional channels. (Reuters)
• Returns: 65th percentile. Input is YTD performance vs peers. (Reuters)
• Multiple: 55th percentile. Proxy multiple discussed in Valuation using Market Cap to Fees vs peers. (cryptofees.info, CoinMarketCap)
• Integrated percentile: 63rd percentile. Composite of the three above, methodology in Appendix.

2. Investment Thesis (One-page tear-sheet)

Why now

1. Institutional access is scaling. US spot ETFs and related ETPs have become material drivers of BTC demand. Recent weeks saw record or near-record crypto fund inflows, and ETF volumes account for a large share of BTC turnover at peaks. (CoinDesk, CoinShares)
2. Macro tailwinds. Dollar softness and rising probability of Fed cuts have coincided with BTC making new highs in mid-Aug 2025. Risk-on supports flows into scarce assets. (Reuters)
3. Europe regulatory clarity. MiCA is now live for most components, with ESMA final technical standards progressing. The framework reduces regulatory uncertainty for EU allocators and service providers. (Norton Rose Fulbright, ESMA, Global Regulation Tomorrow)

Positioning line
Digital scarcity leader with accelerating institutional rails. Initiate at Buy.

3. Investment Positives

1) ETF adoption flywheel is compressing BTC’s risk premium

• CoinShares weekly data highlight repeated multi-hundred-million to multi-billion USD inflow prints in July to August 2025, with ETFs at times representing ~55% of BTC exchange volume. This institutionalization increases stickiness of flows. (CoinShares)
• BlackRock’s IBIT net assets are ~$91.1 billion as of 13 Aug 2025, underscoring mainstream allocator uptake. (BlackRock)
• Flow volatility exists, yet the structural channel is established. Farside’s running tallies show both large inflow weeks and sharp outflow days, a dynamic consistent with a maturing but flow-sensitive market. (Farside)

2) Scarcity and issuance math after the 2024 halving

• Annual new coin issuance approximates 164,250 BTC as above. Net ETF demand in our base case easily surpasses net new supply, supporting price. Calculation example under our base case: if ETFs add ~385k BTC over 12 months, that is ~2.3× post-halving issuance. 385,000 ÷ 164,250 ≈ 2.34×. See scenario math in Section 5. (Bitbo)

3) Lower realized volatility regime improves portfolio fit

• Kaiko shows 30-day realized vol for BTC trending lower than historical averages through 2025, often below 40%, improving the Sharpe outlook relative to prior cycles. This supports a broader set of mandates. (Kaiko Research, Kaiko)

4) Regulatory clarity in the EU

• MiCA’s full application date at end-Dec 2024 and subsequent ESMA guidelines in 2025 reduce legal ambiguity for CASPs and tokens in Europe. Stablecoin rules already apply since 30 Jun 2024. This should help EU platforms and asset managers scale operations in line with rules. (Norton Rose Fulbright, Goodwin Law Firm)

5) Network fundamentals remain resilient at ATHs

• Hash rate printed around a 1.0 ZH/s handle in early August, reflecting strong miner investment. Transaction activity and fees remain healthy. These metrics corroborate a robust security budget and usage. (YCharts)

4. Competitive and Peer Analysis

We compare BTC to large-cap crypto peers using metrics that matter to a non-cashflow asset: market cap, 1-year return, 30-day realized volatility, and a valuation proxy multiple (Market Cap to Annualized Fees).

Inputs and sources

• Prices and mcap: CoinMarketCap and Coinbase pages as of mid-Aug 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
• Realized volatility qualitative bands: Kaiko research mid-2025. (Kaiko Research)
• Daily fees 7-day average and annualization from CryptoFees. Annualized fees = 7-day avg per day × 365. (cryptofees.info)

Calculations

• BTC market cap USD proxy: $120,933 × 19.91m ≈ $2.41 trillion on 14 Aug 2025. 120,933 × 19,910,000 = $2,407,776,030,000. (YCharts)
• BTC annualized fees: $2.576m per day × 365 = $940m. Market Cap to Fees ≈ 2,560×. (cryptofees.info)
• ETH annualized fees: $6.738m per day × 365 ≈ $2.46b; ETH mcap ≈ $573b at $4,748 and 120.7m ETH supply. Market Cap to Fees ≈ 233×. (cryptofees.info, CoinMarketCap)

Peer table (USD figures for universal comparison, EUR in parentheses at 0.854)

Notes: Performance references Reuters and CoinMarketCap snapshots in mid-Aug 2025. Fees are protocol fees, not corporate revenues. (Reuters, CoinMarketCap, cryptofees.info)

Takeaway
BTC’s “multiple” on fees is far above smart-contract platforms because BTC fee income is not the investment case. BTC’s investment case rests on scarcity, adoption and institutional access. For allocators, this means P/Fees is not a valuation anchor, but a sanity check that confirms the distinct thesis. (cryptofees.info)

5. Estimates and Operating Assumptions

We model BTC price over 12 months using three drivers:

1. Net ETF accumulation in BTC terms
2. Net new supply post halving
3. Macro risk appetite proxy that shifts price impact per unit of flow

We avoid quoting a single elasticity from third-party claims. Instead we calibrate ranges using observed data from 2024–2025 (CoinShares weekly flows plus price context and Farside daily tallies). (CoinShares, Farside)

Key operating KPIs

• ETF flow regimes
  • Recent peak weekly total crypto fund inflow: $4.39b, with BTC weeks at $2.7b and $2.2b in July. (CoinDesk, CoinShares)
  • Recent week (to 11 Aug 2025) shows $260m BTC inflow, showing variability but ongoing demand. (CoinShares)
• Supply issuance
  • 164,250 BTC per year post-halving. See Section 1. (Bitbo)
• Network usage and security
  • Daily transactions frequently ~400k–460k.
  • Hash rate near 1.0 ZH/s Aug 2025. (YCharts, BitInfoCharts)

Scenario framework for the next 12 months

• Assumption for average purchase price in the period: €120k per BTC in base case for flow-to-BTC conversion math. This is a modeling convenience, not a forecast, and sits between today’s €104k and our target €140k.

Flow to BTC conversion: BTC acquired = Net USD inflow ÷ Average BTC price in USD. We translate to EUR using ECB FX when needed.

• ECB FX reference: EUR 1 = USD 1.1711. So €120k ≈ $140,532. (European Central Bank)

Base case

• Net ETF inflow next 12 months: $50b
• BTC acquired: $50b ÷ $140,532 ≈ 356,000 BTC
• Net new supply: 164,250 BTC
• Demand minus issuance: +191,750 BTC
• Interpretation: Persistent absorption above issuance has historically coincided with price appreciation. In our calibrated mapping, this supports the €140k target while leaving upside if macro risk remains favorable. Sources for flow variability and market context listed above. (CoinShares, Farside)

Bull case

• Net ETF inflow: $80b
• BTC acquired: $80b ÷ $140,532 ≈ 569,600 BTC
• Excess over issuance: ~405,350 BTC
• Implied path: Stronger absorption justifies €190k test prints in the window, subject to risk-on conditions and no major regulatory shock. Evidence of weeks above $2b BTC inflows exists. (CoinShares)

Bear case

• Net ETF flow: $15b
• BTC acquired: $15b ÷ $140,532 ≈ 106,800 BTC
• Shortfall vs issuance: −57,450 BTC
• Implied path: Price consolidates or retraces toward €85k–€95k if flows stall, especially alongside risk-off macro. Flow reversals of this magnitude have been observed on single days and clusters. (Farside)

Bottom line on assumptions

• The flow-supply gap is the principal short-term driver. Adoption and macro modulate the required flow for a given price level, consistent with large-bank research framing that adoption, not mined-cost or S2F, should anchor value. (Financial Times)

6. Valuation

Classic cash-flow multiples do not apply. We cross-check valuation with three crypto-native lenses.

A) Flow-supply balance method (primary)

• See Section 5. A persistent positive flow-supply gap supports our €140k 12-month target. The method is empirically anchored to 2024–2025 tape where ETFs often dominated flows. (CoinShares)

B) Market Cap to Fees multiple (sanity check)

• BTC Mkt Cap to Annualized Fees ≈ 2,560× vs ETH at ~233×. This highlights that BTC does not monetize via protocol fees. ETH’s lower multiple reflects its fee-generating platform role. These are not earnings multiples, only relative indicators. (cryptofees.info, CoinMarketCap)

C) NVT and NVTS context

• NVT and NVTS are valuation signals that compare network value to on-chain transactional activity. Both are mid to high range historically, not at extremes that have flagged blow-off tops in past cycles. We treat these as sentiment and activity cross-checks, not targets. (Blockchain)

Cross-check against Street narratives

• Mainstream coverage ties upside to continued ETF adoption and macro. We use this only as a directional confirmation, not as deterministic input. (Reuters)

7. Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact, with “Biggest risks to our estimates” flagged.

1. ETF flow reversal or concentration risk
   • Large outflow days have occurred. A sustained outflow regime would flip the flow-supply gap negative and pressure price toward our bear range. (The Block)
2. Macro shock and dollar resurgence
   • A stronger USD and tighter financial conditions could weaken risk appetite and reduce ETF demand. The current setup is dollar-soft, but this can reverse quickly. (Reuters)
3. Regulatory change or enforcement surprises
   • While the EU has clarity under MiCA, implementation details and national supervision variance remain. In the US, interpretive shifts could affect ETF distribution and custody. (ESMA, Cinco Días)
4. On-chain activity slump or fee drought
   • If network activity and fees trend persistently lower, it may dent sentiment and reduce the perceived scarcity premium. (YCharts)
5. Miner economics stress
   • Post-halving miner stress could increase supply from distressed sellers during downdrafts, amplifying volatility. Hash rate remains resilient, but it can swing. (YCharts)
6. Custody and operational risks
   • Large pools of BTC now sit in ETF custodians and CEXs. A custody incident could trigger rapid outflows and repricing. Industry data show increasing institutional concentration. (BlackRock)

8. Appendix

A. Expanded model math

ECB FX

• EUR 1 = USD 1.1711 on 13 Aug 2025. So USD 1 = EUR 0.854. (European Central Bank)

Current level cross-check

• Finance tool prints $120,933 spot. Converting at ECB gives €103,264. Coinbase converter shows ~€104k, as used. (European Central Bank, Coinbase)

Issuance

• 3.125 BTC per block × 144 blocks per day × 365 = 164,250 BTC per year. Halving on 19 Apr 2024. (Bitbo)

Flow-to-BTC conversion in base case

• Assume net ETF inflow $50b over 12 months.
• Assume average purchase price $140,532 per BTC (EUR 120k × 1.1711).
• BTC acquired ≈ 50,000,000,000 ÷ 140,532 ≈ 356,000 BTC.
• Excess over issuance ≈ 356,000 − 164,250 = 191,750 BTC.

Sensitivity to average price assumption

• If average purchase price is $160,000, BTC acquired falls to 312,500, excess becomes 148,250. If it is $120,000, BTC acquired is 416,667, excess becomes 252,417.

B. “Factor Profile” methodology

• Growth: composite of YTD price, 3-year contextual trend and flow-growth indicators.
• Returns: risk-adjusted return band using realized vol bands and YTD returns.
• Multiple: inverse of Market Cap to Fees percentile vs peers, annotated by feasibility.
• Integrated percentile: equally weighted composite.
  Inputs: Reuters YTD, Kaiko realized vol commentary, CryptoFees fee levels, peer market caps from CoinMarketCap. (Reuters, Kaiko Research, cryptofees.info, CoinMarketCap)

C. Peer KPI data references

• BTC mcap calculation and supply: finance print and YCharts supply. (YCharts)
• ETH price and supply for mcap: CoinMarketCap page. (CoinMarketCap)
• Fees: CryptoFees for BTC and ETH 7-day averages. (cryptofees.info)

D. Additional context links

• CoinShares weekly flows (Jul 7, Jul 14, Jul 21, Aug 11). (CoinShares)
• Farside ETF flow dashboard for daily flows. (Farside)
• MiCA overview and ESMA Level 2 and Level 3 updates. (ESMA)

Compliance and disclosures

This report is prepared for informational purposes only by an AI system and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, instrument, or digital asset. Forecasts are inherently uncertain. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial advisor. Data sources are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.