Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 117760.0 USD currently with a change of 503.00 USD (0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 117970.0 USD and the intraday low is 116953.0 USD.

As of August 16, 2025. Chart shows BTC in USD for the last 12 months. Current spot from finance widget: 117,760 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin vs EUR (spot)
• Current price (EUR): €100,589 (CoinGecko, Aug 16, 2025). (CoinGecko)
• Target price (12-m, EUR): €139,000
• Implied upside: 38.3% [(139,000 − 100,589) ÷ 100,589].
• Investment rating: Buy
• Market cap (EUR): ~€2.00T = €100,589 × 19.91m circulating supply. Supply 19.91m BTC (Aug 15, 2025, YCharts). Calculation shown; see Appendix. (CoinGecko, YCharts)
• Circulating supply (BTC): 19.91m (Aug 15, 2025, YCharts). (YCharts)
• Post-halving block reward: 3.125 BTC at block 840,000 on April 20, 2024; ~10-minute target block time. (Wikipedia, Bitcoin)
• New issuance post-halving: ~450 BTC/day = 3.125 × 144; annual issuance ~164,250 BTC, implied annual inflation ~0.825% = 164,250 ÷ 19.91m. Sources for block cadence and supply cited above. (Bitbo Charts, YCharts)
• Network security: Hash rate ~862 EH/s on Aug 15, 2025 (YCharts “Bitcoin Network Hash Rate” 862.19M TH/s). (YCharts)
• On-chain activity: Transactions/day 430,405 and fees/day $431k on Aug 15, 2025 (YCharts). Avg fee $1.00/tx. (YCharts)
• Realized cap milestone: ~$1T realized market cap achieved July 26, 2025. (CoinDesk)
• EU regulatory status: MiCA stablecoin titles applicable since June 30, 2024; CASP regime in application from Dec 30, 2024, with ESMA Level-2/3 measures rolling through 2025. (ESMA, CoinGeek)

“Factor profile” (internal, 0–100)

• Growth 65 (fees, addresses, institutional access)
• Returns 60 (security spending vs miner revenue)
• Multiple 55 (NVT proxy vs long-term range)
• Integrated 60
  Notes: Internal composite built from 3-yr CAGR estimates for transactions and fees, hash price trends, and current NVT proxy. Underlying sources referenced where numeric data appear.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now

1. Structural supply squeeze after Apr 2024 halving: issuance cut to 3.125 BTC/block, annual inflation ~0.825%. The issuance path is known for decades, increasing scarcity as adoption broadens. (Wikipedia, Bitcoin, YCharts)
2. Institutional access deepens: US spot Bitcoin ETFs scaled rapidly in 2024–2025, with the largest single fund showing ~$88B AUM as of Aug 15, 2025; category net inflows since launch measured in tens of billions. We see spillover to EU wealth channels as MiCA clarifies crypto service permissions. (BlackRock, Investopedia)
3. EU rulebook in place: MiCA titles for stablecoins enforce reserves and disclosures since June 30, 2024, while CASP authorization and supervisory guidance roll through 2025, de-risking European distribution for compliant providers. (ESMA)

Positioning line: Scarcity asset with improving institutional rails; initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1. Programmed scarcity and falling inflation
   • Halving reduced issuance to 3.125 BTC/block; ~450 BTC/day, ~164k BTC/year, ~0.825% inflation on a 19.91m base. This compares favorably to fiat money growth and typical commodity supply profiles. (Wikipedia, Bitbo Charts, YCharts)
2. Growing institutional participation
   • US spot ETFs: IBIT AUM ~$87.7B (Aug 15, 2025). Early-life net inflows across spot ETFs reached ~$36.2B over the inaugural year. These vehicles lower frictions for asset allocation models and private banks. (BlackRock, Investopedia)
   • Record spot price $123,153 in Jul 2025 signals broad demand, including regulated channels. (Reuters)
3. Network security at all-time strength
   • Hash rate near 0.86–1.04 ZH/s mid-Aug 2025, reflecting heavy miner investment and rising difficulty (129.44 T, Aug 15, 2025). Security spending scales with price, reinforcing resilience. (YCharts)
4. On-chain indicators trend supportive
   • Realized cap ~$1T (Jul 26, 2025) marks record investor cost basis aggregation.
   • Daily transactions ~430k and average fees ~$1/tx indicate sustained activity with manageable cost for settlement-layer usage. (CoinDesk, YCharts)
5. EU regulatory clarity
   • MiCA stablecoin rules effective June 30, 2024; CASP regime live Dec 30, 2024. ESMA/EBA guidance now provides line-of-sight for authorization, conduct, and market integrity. We expect this to unlock distribution in Europe over 2025–2026. (ESMA, CoinGeek)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Gold (store-of-value proxy)

Sources and notes: BTC price EUR and ETH price EUR from CoinGecko (Aug 16, 2025). BTC supply and hash rate from YCharts (Aug 15, 2025). ETH supply from YCharts (Aug 15, 2025). Gold above-ground stock 216,265 t (WGC, end-2024). Gold price per oz in EUR around €2,850 on Aug 16, 2025 (150currency snapshot). BTC tx/day and fees/day from YCharts (Aug 15, 2025). Ethereum daily active addresses from YCharts (Aug 13, 2025). Calculations shown in Appendix. (CoinGecko, YCharts, World Gold Council, 150Currency.com)

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions (2025E–2028E)

Framework: We model Bitcoin’s “top-line” as the settlement-layer fee economy plus on-chain activity. We do not model off-chain (Lightning, exchanges) fees here. Baseline metrics use Aug 2025 observations, then apply adoption and activity growth.

Baselines (Aug 2025 snapshots)

• Transactions/day: 430,405. Avg fee/tx: $1.00. Fees/day: $0.431m. Annualized fee run-rate: ~$157m. (YCharts; see Key Data). (YCharts)
• Hash rate: ~862 EH/s; difficulty 129.44 T. (YCharts, Aug 15, 2025). (YCharts)
• Post-halving issuance: ~164,250 BTC/year. (See Key Data). (Wikipedia, Bitbo Charts)

Key drivers and assumptions

• Transactions/day growth: we assume 3-yr CAGR +10% driven by broader custody access and stablecoin-to-BTC settlement flows in Europe under MiCA. Regulatory dates per ESMA/EBA materials. (ESMA)
• Avg fee/tx: normalize to $1.25 by 2028E as blockspace demand rises with cyclicality; still below 2024 fee spikes. Reference current $1.00 average. (YCharts)
• BTC price path (EUR): Base case €139k in 12 months (valuation section). Thereafter €150k 2027E, €165k 2028E. Prices convert to USD implicitly in NVT cross-check using contemporaneous FX; FX reference ECB Aug 15, 2025 EUR 1 = USD 1.1688. (European Central Bank)
• Supply: deterministic, edging from 19.91m to ~20.3m by 2028E. DATA NEEDED for exact minted blocks; source: Blockchain.com “Total Bitcoins” or YCharts. (Blockchain.com)

Model outputs (USD fee economy; activity in units)

KPI bridges

• Tx/day CAGR 2025E–2028E ~10% (assumption).
• Fees/yr CAGR ~18%, driven by both volume and small fee normalization.
• Issuance remains sub-1% inflation through period due to halving schedule. (Wikipedia)

6) Valuation

Primary method: Store-of-value share vs monetary gold (EUR)

• Gold stock: 216,265 tonnes above-ground (end-2024, WGC). Convert to ounces: 216,265 × 32,150.7 = 6.953bn oz. (World Gold Council)
• Gold price (EUR/oz): ~€2,850 on Aug 16, 2025 snapshot. Total gold value ~€19.8T = 6.953bn × €2,850. (150Currency.com)
• Monetary gold slice: bars, coins, ETFs, and central bank holdings total ~86,389 t at end-2024. That equals 2.777bn oz or ~€7.92T at €2,850/oz. (World Gold Council)

Target construction

• Assume Bitcoin captures 35% of monetary-gold value over 12 months as adoption in regulated wrappers deepens. Value to BTC = 0.35 × €7.92T = €2.77T.
• Divide by circulating supply 19.91m → €139k/BTC target. Calculation matches headline target. Supply source YCharts; monetary gold composition WGC; price snapshot as above. (YCharts, World Gold Council, 150Currency.com)

Scenarios

• 25% share: ~€99.4k (near current spot).
• 50% share: ~€198.8k.
  Calculations use the same inputs as above; see Appendix for math.

Cross-checks

1. NVT-like proxy (market cap ÷ 24h on-chain transfer value, unadjusted):
   • Market cap $2.36T (Aug 15, 2025, YCharts).
   • Output value/day 586,342 BTC (Aug 15, 2025, YCharts) × spot $117,760 ≈ $69.0B/day → NVT ~34. This is within historical mid-cycle ranges for a settlement-focused chain. Methodology caveat: unadjusted output value includes change outputs; adjusted metrics may differ. (YCharts)
2. ETF AUM signal: Largest spot ETF AUM ~$88B as of Aug 15, 2025; category net inflows ~$36.2B in first year. Persistence of regulated demand supports SoV share-gain assumptions. (BlackRock, Investopedia)

7) Key Risks

1. Policy and market-structure risk (High probability, High impact):
   • Changes to ETF distribution, custody capital rules, or taxation could suppress regulated flows. MiCA implementation is ongoing through 2025; national competent authority practices can diverge. (ESMA)
2. Energy and environmental scrutiny (Medium probability, High impact):
   • Bitcoin’s annual electricity demand was estimated around 120 TWh in 2023 by the US EIA referencing CBECI; methodologies vary and updated ranges are wide. Stricter energy policies or grid constraints can affect mining economics and security perception. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
3. On-chain fee weakness vs security spend (Medium probability, Medium impact):
   • If fee revenue stays near $0.4–0.7m/day while hash price rises, miner margins rely on price, exposing security spending to price shocks. (YCharts)
4. Smart-contract platform competition for capital (Medium probability, Medium impact):
   • Ethereum and others attract developer activity and liquidity; ETH daily active addresses ~0.69m show persistent network utility. Diversion of flows could limit BTC’s SoV share gains. (YCharts)
5. Liquidity and volatility events (Low probability, High impact):
   • Exogenous de-risking could drive drawdowns. Realized cap at ~$1T improves depth but cannot eliminate cyclical volatility. (CoinDesk)

8) Appendix

A) Calculations and bridges

• BTC market cap (EUR) = €100,589 × 19.91m = €2,002,726,990,000. Prices: CoinGecko (Aug 16, 2025). Supply: YCharts (Aug 15, 2025). (CoinGecko, YCharts)
• Issuance and inflation
  • Blocks/day target ≈ 144 from 10-minute target. Reward 3.125 BTC. Daily issuance ≈ 450 BTC; annual ≈ 164,250 BTC. Inflation ≈ 164,250 ÷ 19.91m = 0.825%. Sources: Bitcoin whitepaper and protocol notes; YCharts for supply. (Bitcoin, Wikipedia, YCharts)
• Monetary gold value (EUR)
  • Monetary slice t = bars+coins+ETFs ~48,634 t plus central banks ~37,755 t = ~86,389 t at end-2024 (WGC). Ounces = 86,389 × 32,150.7 = 2.777bn oz; value ~€7.92T at €2,850/oz. (World Gold Council, 150Currency.com)
• Target price
  • €139k = (0.35 × €7.92T) ÷ 19.91m. Inputs above.
• Scenario prices
  • 25% share: €99.4k. 50% share: €198.8k.
• NVT proxy
  • Output value/day 586,342 BTC (YCharts) × $117,760 (finance widget) = $69.05B; Market cap $2.36T → NVT ≈ 34. (YCharts)

B) Additional metrics and references

• Hash rate and difficulty: 862.19M TH/s; 129.44 T on Aug 15, 2025 (YCharts). (YCharts)
• BTC transactions/day: 430,405 on Aug 15, 2025 (YCharts). (YCharts)
• Fees/day: $431,323 on Aug 15, 2025 (YCharts). Avg fee $1.00 (YCharts). (YCharts)
• Realized cap milestone: ~$1T on Jul 26, 2025 (CoinDesk). (CoinDesk)
• ECB FX reference (context for USD/EUR conversions): EUR 1 = USD 1.1688 on Aug 15, 2025. (European Central Bank)
• Gold context: Gold price made fresh records in 2025; WGC notes Q2 2025 average $3,280/oz and supply trends. For our EUR modeling we used live EUR/oz snapshots. (World Gold Council)

C) Operating model detail (select)

• 2026E–2028E fee projections use activity and fee per tx assumptions as shown; sensitivity: each $0.10/tx change versus base shifts annual fees by ~$18–21m at modeled 2026–2028 volumes.
• DATA NEEDED for enhanced accuracy:
  • Adjusted transfer volume (to refine NVT): Coin Metrics or Glassnode community series.
  • Lightning Network capacity and channel count: Amboss, mempool.space LN explorer.
  • EU crypto ETP AUM and net flows by wrapper and domicile: issuer fact sheets; Frankfurt Xetra, SIX, Euronext.
  • ETH staking metrics for peer table: Beaconcha.in, Dune dashboards.

D) Disclosure boilerplate

This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security or cryptoasset. The information herein is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Digital assets are volatile and involve significant risk, including total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document was generated by AI and may contain errors. Do not use it as the sole basis for investment decisions.

Sources (selected)

• CoinGecko BTC and ETH EUR prices and market data, Aug 16, 2025. (CoinGecko)
• YCharts Bitcoin on-chain and market series, Aug 15–16, 2025. (YCharts)
• Bitcoin protocol and halving details. (Wikipedia, Bitcoin)
• CoinDesk on realized cap milestone, Jul 26, 2025. (CoinDesk)
• World Gold Council above-ground stock and Q2 2025 trends. (World Gold Council)
• ECB euro reference rate, Aug 15, 2025. (European Central Bank)
• IBIT AUM and ETF inflow context. (BlackRock, Investopedia)
• ESMA/EBA MiCA materials and timelines. (ESMA, CoinGeek)
• Reuters on July 2025 BTC record price. (Reuters)