Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Report date: 19 Aug 2025

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 114994.0 USD currently with a change of -496.00 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 116997.0 USD and the intraday low is 114608.0 USD.

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (EUR): €98,630 per BTC, spot BTC_EUR mid-market. Source: CoinGecko, 19 Aug 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Spot FX used: 1 EUR = 1.1673 USD, ECB reference, 18 Aug 2025. (European Central Bank)
• Current price (USD, cross-check): 114,994 USD. Source: Web finance feed, 19 Aug 2025.
• Circulating supply: ~19.91 million BTC, 18 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts, Blockchain.com data. (YCharts)
• Market cap (EUR): ~€2.00 trillion using 2.337 trillion USD market cap on 15 Aug 2025 and ECB FX. Calc: 2.337T × 0.857 = €2.00T. Sources: MacroMicro 15 Aug 2025, ECB 18 Aug 2025. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank)

12-month price chart: see widget above (USD series shown for continuity). Source: Web finance feed, 19 Aug 2025.

Target price (12-month, EUR): €149,700

• Implied upside: +51.7 percent vs €98,630. Calculation shown in Valuation. Sources: MacroMicro gold and BTC market caps 15 Aug 2025, ECB FX 18 Aug 2025, CoinGecko spot 19 Aug 2025. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank, CoinGecko)
• Investment rating: Buy
• Positioning line: Scarcity plus ETF demand flywheel — initiate at Buy

Quick factor profile (percentile, our framework):

• Growth 85
• Returns 70
• Multiple 25
• Integrated 65
  Rationale references include ETF asset growth, hashrate trend, and fees data. Sources: BlackRock IBIT facts 18 Aug 2025, YCharts hash rate 18 Aug 2025, Token Terminal 2025. (BlackRock, YCharts, Token Terminal)

2. Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now

1. ETF adoption is structural. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed very large AUM and continue to see sizable daily flows. BlackRock’s IBIT AUM was ~$87.3B as of 18 Aug 2025, with broader US spot Bitcoin ETF flows tracked daily by Farside. This institutional rail lowers frictions for pensions, RIAs and model portfolios. (BlackRock, Farside)
2. Post-halving supply cut is biting. Issuance is ~450 BTC per day after the Apr 20, 2024 halving at block 840,000, a 50 percent cut. The structural supply shrink contrasts with incremental demand from ETFs. (CoinGecko, The Block)
3. Macro and EU rules de-risk access. MiCA entered into application through late 2024 and into 2025, giving EU investors clearer protections and licensing for CASPs. Lower policy uncertainty supports European participation. (Norton Rose Fulbright, ESMA)

One-sentence positioning: Scarcity asset with growing institutional rails, clear European rulebook, and strong on-chain fundamentals.

3. Investment Positives

1. ETF demand flywheel
   • BlackRock IBIT net assets were ~$87.28B on 18 Aug 2025; Fidelity FBTC total assets ~$23.9B mid Aug 2025. Together these two anchor a deep, regulated channel for flows. (BlackRock, Morningstar)
   • US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flows are tracked transparently and have shown multiple strong inflow days in Aug 2025. Source and examples: Farside daily flow tracker. (Farside)
2. Programmed scarcity
   • Issuance fell to 3.125 BTC per block on 20 Apr 2024 at height 840,000, which equals ~450 BTC per day or ~164,250 per year, reducing sell pressure from miners. (CoinGecko, The Block)
   • Circulating supply ~19.91M BTC as of 18 Aug 2025, with cap at 21M. Remaining issuance extends over a century, reinforcing scarcity optics. (YCharts)
3. On-chain resilience and security spend
   • Network hash rate near record territory in Aug 2025. YCharts shows 990.88M TH/s on 18 Aug 2025, roughly 991 EH/s. Several industry monitors cite peaks approaching 966 to 980+ EH/s mid Aug. (YCharts, Hashrate Index)
4. European regulatory clarity
   • MiCA fully applicable from 30 Dec 2024 for most CASPs, with stablecoin rules live since 30 Jun 2024. ESMA has issued technical standards and guidance. This reduces operational risk for EU investors and providers. (Norton Rose Fulbright, ESMA)
5. Fee base and L2 optionality
   • Trailing fees are lower than Ethereum but remain a durable base that can be supplemented by emergent protocols on Bitcoin such as Runes which spurred temporary fee spikes post-halving. (Token Terminal, Cointelegraph)

4. Competitive and Peer Analysis

All figures converted to EUR using ECB 1 EUR = 1.1673 USD on 18 Aug 2025 unless natively EUR.

Sources: BTC and Gold market caps: MacroMicro 15 Aug 2025. ETH market cap: YCharts 17 Aug 2025. SOL market cap: CoinMarketCap mid Aug 2025. Fees and active addresses: Token Terminal 2025 pages. FX: ECB 18 Aug 2025. Conversions: 1 USD = 0.857 EUR. Calculations shown in Valuation. (MacroMicro, YCharts, CoinMarketCap, Token Terminal, European Central Bank)

Notes:

• “P/F” uses fully diluted network value proxy by market cap divided by trailing 365D fees. Fees time window based on Token Terminal “Fees” metric and ranking pages. (Token Terminal)
• “Active addresses monthly” for BTC is Token Terminal’s 11.0M figure. ETH and SOL monthly actives require consistent vendor series for like-for-like. DATA NEEDED. Suggested source: Token Terminal Studio dashboard for monthly active addresses. (Token Terminal)

5. Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Top-line proxy: Network fees
We model network “revenue” as total on-chain transaction fees, then convert to EUR.

• Baseline datapoint: Bitcoin total transaction fees per day of ~399,097 USD on 18 Aug 2025. Source: YCharts, Blockchain.com data. (YCharts)

Key drivers 2026E to 2028E

• Transactions and blockspace demand: modest growth with potential spikes from metaprotocols and token activity. Fee sensitivity is convex to congestion. Supporting datapoints: post-halving fee spikes linked to Runes. (Cointelegraph)
• Supply overhang from miners: issuance ~164,250 BTC per year after halving; miner behavior is sensitive to hashprice, OPEX and ETF-driven price. (CME Group)
• Institutional adoption ramps: US ETFs continue to broaden access; IBIT and peers act as demand reservoirs. (BlackRock)
• EU rulebook: MiCA reduces distribution frictions in EU. (Norton Rose Fulbright)

Model (EUR, calendar years)
Assumption: starting point fees per day 0.399M USD on 18 Aug 2025. Convert to EUR at 0.857.

• 2025E fees (pro-rated Sep-Dec at run-rate): 0.399M × 122 days × 0.857 = €41.8M. Simple run-rate. Sources: YCharts 18 Aug 2025, ECB FX 18 Aug 2025. (YCharts, European Central Bank)
• 2026E fees: assume 25 percent uplift on 2025 run-rate driven by higher usage windows and L2 activity. €52.3M.
• 2027E fees: assume 20 percent growth. €62.8M.
• 2028E fees: assume 15 percent growth. €72.1M.

These are conservative vs cyclical spikes. Use for relative comparables, not DCF.

Operating KPIs and assumptions

• Active addresses (monthly): 11.0M baseline per Token Terminal. 2026E +8 percent, 2027E +6 percent, 2028E +5 percent. (Token Terminal)
• Hash rate: baseline near ~991 EH/s on 18 Aug 2025, modeled to grow at 10 percent in 2026 then 8 percent and 6 percent as capex consolidates. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Issuance: 3.125 BTC per block, ~450 BTC per day, ~164,250 per year until next halving expected 2028. Sources: CME Apr 2024 halving note, CoinGecko halving page. (CME Group, CoinGecko)
• ETF flows: qualitative driver. Quant series available from Farside and CoinShares weekly flow updates. DATA NEEDED to mechanize into the fee model. (Farside, CoinShares)

6. Valuation

Primary: Price to Fees (P/F) multiple

• Current BTC P/F: Market cap 2.337T USD divided by trailing 365D fees 278.7M USD = ~8,386x. Sources: MacroMicro 15 Aug 2025, Token Terminal fees ranking. (MacroMicro, Token Terminal)
• ETH cross-check P/F: 547.7B USD divided by 1.1B USD = ~498x. Source: YCharts ETH market cap 17 Aug 2025, Token Terminal fees. (YCharts, Token Terminal)
• SOL cross-check P/F: 97.3B USD divided by 981.1M USD = ~99x. Source: CoinMarketCap SOL market cap mid Aug 2025, Token Terminal fees. (CoinMarketCap, Token Terminal)

Interpretation: BTC screens expensive on P/F because Bitcoin settles high value with minimal on-chain fee take, by design. We therefore do not anchor target to P/F alone.

Cross-check: Store-of-value share vs gold

• Inputs: Gold market value ~$23.19T on 15 Aug 2025. BTC market cap ~$2.337T same date. Sources: MacroMicro. (MacroMicro)
• Current BTC share of gold: 2.337 ÷ 23.192 = ~10.1 percent. (MacroMicro)
• Base-case 12-month share: 15 percent of gold market value by Aug 2026 as ETF channels deepen and EU distribution matures.
• Implied BTC market cap: 0.15 × 23.192T = $3.478T.
• Implied BTC price (USD): $3.478T ÷ 19.91M = $174,787.
• Convert to EUR: $174,787 ÷ 1.1673 = €149,662.
• Implied upside vs €98,630 spot: +51.7 percent.
  Sources for inputs: MacroMicro 15 Aug 2025, YCharts supply 18 Aug 2025, ECB FX 18 Aug 2025, CoinGecko spot 19 Aug 2025. Calculations above. (MacroMicro, YCharts, European Central Bank, CoinGecko)

Scenario grid (EUR 12-month):

• Bear: 10 percent gold share persists. Price ≈ $117,380 or €100,560. Downside limited by ETF base. Sources: MacroMicro, ECB FX, YCharts supply. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank, YCharts)
• Base: 15 percent share. €149,700.
• Bull: 20 percent share. Price ≈ $233,040 or €199,590 if spreads and flows accelerate. DATA NEEDED to attribute probability by channel. Sources: MacroMicro, ECB FX, YCharts supply. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank)

Cross-check 2: ETF footprint

• IBIT AUM ~$87.28B as of 18 Aug 2025 and growing. Aggregate US spot ETFs tracked by Farside show consistent inflow bursts in Aug. The AUM vector supports our gold-share bridge. (BlackRock, Farside)

7. Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. Policy or distribution shock
   • Adverse regulatory change in the US ETF channel or EU MiCA implementation could slow flows or raise platform costs. ESMA warns on forum shopping risk. (www.hoganlovells.com)
2. Macro drawdown and liquidity tightening
   • A strong USD or tighter global liquidity can pressure BTC. FX and rate shifts impact cross-border flows. ECB reference FX included for awareness. (European Central Bank)
3. On-chain revenue softness
   • Fees have been low relative to 2024 spikes. Token Terminal and YCharts show modest fee base in mid 2025. If metaprotocol activity fades, security spend narrative weakens. (Token Terminal, YCharts)
4. Mining economics stress
   • Hashrate remains high while hashprice fell at points in Aug 2025. Sustained miner stress can increase forced selling. Industry monitors cited 7 percent short-term hashprice drop mid Aug. (Hashrate Index)
5. Technology and competition
   • Ethereum and Solana support higher fee capture per usage. On a P/F view BTC screens rich. Relative repricing is a risk if SoV demand cools. (Token Terminal)
6. Operational risks
   • Custody incidents, exchange outages, or ETF operational issues could hurt sentiment and flows. DATA NEEDED for current year incident log. Suggested source: The Block Research, public filings.

8. Appendix

A. Expanded calculations

• ECB FX conversion: 1 USD = 0.857 EUR on 18 Aug 2025. Source: ECB. (European Central Bank)
• BTC market cap in EUR: 2.337T USD × 0.857 = €2.00T. Sources: MacroMicro 15 Aug 2025, ECB 18 Aug 2025. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank)
• Active addresses ARPU proxy (illustrative, USD): 278.7M USD fees ÷ 11.0M monthly actives ≈ $25 per MAU-year. Sources: Token Terminal. Use with caution due to non-GAAP nature. (Token Terminal)

B. KPI snapshots and sources

• Spot price checks (EUR): CoinGecko BTC_EUR, 19 Aug 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Spot price checks (USD): Finance feed 19 Aug 2025 and Bitinfocharts price tapes. (BitInfoCharts)
• Supply and halving: YCharts supply series 18 Aug 2025; halving 20 Apr 2024 at 840,000. (YCharts, The Block)
• Fees: Token Terminal 30D and trailing views; YCharts daily fees. (Token Terminal, YCharts)
• ETF data: BlackRock IBIT facts 18 Aug 2025; Farside daily flows tracker. (BlackRock, Farside)
• Regulation: MiCA timeline and ESMA RTS. (Norton Rose Fulbright, ESMA)

C. Disclosures and methodology

• Price target construction uses a share-of-gold heuristic cross-checked against institutional adoption indicators. Gold estimate from MacroMicro 15 Aug 2025. (MacroMicro)
• Multiples on fees are used comparatively, not as an absolute anchor, because fee capture differs across chains. Fee windows per Token Terminal. (Token Terminal)
• Where data is missing, we flag DATA NEEDED and suggest sources.

Investment Rating Summary

• Rating: Buy
• Target price (12-month, EUR): €149,700
• Implied upside: +51.7 percent vs €98,630 spot on 19 Aug 2025
• Catalysts next 6-12 months: net ETF inflows, EU MiCA license wins by major platforms, hashrate and security growth, blockspace demand upticks.

Key sources for the rating inputs:
Spot price and FX: CoinGecko 19 Aug 2025, ECB 18 Aug 2025. (CoinGecko, European Central Bank)
Market caps and supply: MacroMicro 15 Aug 2025, YCharts 18 Aug 2025. (MacroMicro)
ETF rails: BlackRock IBIT facts 18 Aug 2025, Farside flows 2025. (BlackRock, Farside)
Halving mechanics: CoinGecko halving explainer 2024. (CoinGecko)

Compliance and Important Disclosures

This report is for information only. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security or digital asset. It does not consider your objectives or financial situation. Prices and data are from third-party sources cited above and may change. Forecasts are inherently uncertain. Do your own research and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. This report was generated by AI and may contain errors. It is not intended for investment purposes.