Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (EUR): €106,479 per BTC, translated from $124,346 using the ECB euro reference rate EUR 1 = USD 1.1678 on 6 Oct 2025. (European Central Bank)
• 12-month target price (EUR): €130,000
• Implied upside: 22.1% vs current €106,479. Calculation: (130,000−106,479)/106,479 = 22.09%.
• Investment rating: Buy
• Market capitalization: ~$2.48 trillion, ≈€2.13 trillion at ECB FX. (Coinbase)
• Circulating supply: ~19.93 million BTC. (Coinbase)
• 12-month price chart: USD reference below (EUR target and snapshot shown above).

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 124346.0 USD currently with a change of 236.00 USD (0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 126157.0 USD and the intraday low is 123373.0 USD.

Factor profile (internal composite, 0–100th percentile; our methodology blends growth, quality, and multiple dispersion vs crypto, gold, and payment networks):

• Growth 80, Returns 90, Multiple 60, Integrated percentile 78. Method: internal estimate using trailing 3-yr volatility-adjusted returns, address and fee growth, and relative valuation bands. Not from a third-party source.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — 3 bullets

1. ETF engine and European ETP adoption: Record weekly inflows into digital-asset funds, with Bitcoin products drawing $3.55 billion net last week; US spot ETFs hold ~1.33 million BTC (~6.3% of 21m cap). We expect sustained allocations as treasury, wealth, and pension channels broaden. (CoinShares)
2. Macro hedge relevance rising: Gold is at record highs near $3,900/oz, underscoring demand for non-sovereign stores of value. Bitcoin’s “digital gold” positioning benefits from the same macro bid. (Reuters)
3. Post-halving supply compression: Block subsidy cut to 3.125 BTC on April 20, 2024 reduced annual issuance to ~0.85% and daily new supply to ~450 BTC. Lower structural sell-pressure supports price into the next cycle. (CoinGecko)

Positioning line: “Scarcity-led monetary network with accelerating institutional access; initiate at Buy.”

3) Investment Positives

1. Institutional plumbing is working.
   • Digital asset funds saw $5.95 billion net inflows last week, of which $3.55 billion were into Bitcoin products, the strongest seven-day tally of 2025. We see a structural bid from US wealth platforms and EU ETPs on Xetra/SIX. (CoinShares)
   • US spot ETFs collectively hold ~1.33 million BTC, or ~6.31% of the 21m cap. At 19.93m circulating, that is ~6.6% of circulating supply. Calc: 1.3259m ÷ 19.93m. (Bitbo)
2. Macro tailwinds similar to gold.
   • Spot gold near record $3,958/oz; banks raising forward targets on ETF demand and central-bank buying. This validates the “debasement trade” bid that also lifts BTC. (Reuters)
3. Programmed supply decline and security budget resiliency.
   • Fourth halving executed at block 840,000 on 20 Apr 2024; block reward now 3.125 BTC and next halving expected April 2028 to 1.5625 BTC. (CoinWarz)
   • Miner revenue remains substantial post-halving with recent daily revenue around $52m–$58m, reflecting higher price and episodic fee spikes. (YCharts)
4. Network usage and scale.
   • Daily confirmed transactions typically ~0.44–0.68 million over the past year. (YCharts)
   • Recent 24h on-chain settlement around $35.5 billion (BitInfoCharts “sent coins in USD”). This provides a base for our settlement-based valuation. (BitInfoCharts)
5. Regulatory clarity improving in Europe.
   • MiCA fully applicable since 30 Dec 2024 for CASPs, with stablecoin rules in force since 30 Jun 2024; Level 2 and 3 work ongoing. This harmonises EU crypto rules and supports institutional comfort. (www.hoganlovells.com)

4) Competitive / Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Gold vs Visa network (payments benchmark).

Sources: Market caps and BTC supply from Coinbase/Coingecko; ETH market cap YCharts/Coingecko; gold cap CompaniesMarketCap; Visa FY24 volumes per 2024 annual report; BTC tx/day and average fee YCharts; ETH tx/day and fees YCharts/BitInfoCharts; BTC 24h settlement BitInfoCharts; FX via ECB. (Coinbase)

Observations

• Bitcoin’s Market cap / annual payments analog, using on-chain settlement as a rough proxy, screens richer than Visa’s Market cap / payments volume (BTC ~0.19x vs Visa ~0.051x), but they monetize differently. BTC calc: $2.48T ÷ ($35.5B × 365) ≈ 0.192x. Visa calc: $673B ÷ $13.2T ≈ 0.051x. (BitInfoCharts)
• Ethereum currently generates higher protocol fees than Bitcoin, but with different use cases; our thesis relies less on fee monetization and more on BTC’s scarcity and ETF-driven demand. (CryptoFees)

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions (3-year model, top-line focus on network activity)

Base year anchors (today):

• Price: $124,346 ≈ €106,479 at ECB FX 1.1678. (European Central Bank)
• Circulating supply: 19.93m BTC. (Coinbase)
• On-chain settlement (proxy, “coins sent”): $35.5B/day, annualized $12.96T. Calc: 35.5 × 365. (BitInfoCharts)
• Protocol fees 7-day avg: $2.58m/day, annualized $0.94B. Calc: 2.58 × 365. (CryptoFees)
• Transactions per day: ~444k now; last year higher amid inscriptions peaks. (YCharts)

Key drivers we model

• Settlement growth: ETF and institutional adoption lift average daily settlement value.
• Blockspace demand: inscriptions and L2 anchoring create episodic fee spikes.
• Supply path: subsidy stays at 3.125 BTC per block until the 2028 halving, with ~450 BTC new per day. (CoinWarz)
• FX: EUR valuation based on ECB reference. (European Central Bank)

Operating model (USD unless stated; internal estimates)

Notes: 2026–2028 growth reflects higher institutional settlement, modest on-chain tx count growth, and fee ranges that incorporate Ordinals/Runes episodes and L2 batching. Fees remain a small portion of miner revenue vs subsidy until 2028. Sources for baselines: YCharts, BitInfoCharts, cryptofees.info; forward figures are our estimates. (YCharts)

KPI cross-checks (context only)

• Hashrate near 1.0 ZH/s daily average late Sep 2025, signaling robust security budget. (YCharts)
• Lightning capacity monitors show ~3,850–3,860 BTC with ~12.5k nodes, though capacity trend down from 2023 highs; L2 adoption still evolves. (X (formerly Twitter))

Environmental context

• CCAF CBECI provides the authoritative range for electricity use and efficiency trends; use for ESG diligence and scope benchmarking. (ccaf.io)

6) Valuation

Primary method: Settlement Multiple (Market Cap / On-chain Settlement Value)

• We use on-chain “coins sent in USD” as a high-level proxy for value settled, a common network activity gauge when adjusted datasets are limited publicly. Current MC/SV ≈ 0.192x. Calc: $2.48T ÷ ($35.5B × 365). (Coinbase)

12-month target derivation (base case):

1. Forecast average daily settlement to $43.6B in the next 12 months, annualized $15.93T (see model).
2. Hold MC/SV multiple constant at 0.19x.
3. Target market cap: 0.19 × $15.93T = $3.03T.
4. Target price (USD): $3.03T ÷ 19.93m = $151,824/BTC.
5. Target price (EUR): $151,824 ÷ 1.1678 = ~€130,000 using ECB FX. (European Central Bank)

Cross-checks

• Payments analog: Visa trades at ~0.051x MC/TPV using FY24 $13.2T volume and ~$673B MC. Bitcoin at ~0.192x MC/SV is richer, but the differing unit economics and scarcity premium justify a spread. (Q4 Capital)
• Gold share method: If BTC rises from ~9–10% of gold’s ~$26–27T cap to ~11%, that implies $2.9–3.0T BTC MC, consistent with our base target. (Companies Market Cap)
• Fees multiple (sanity only): BTC MC/fees screens optically high vs ETH given lower fee monetization, so we avoid this as a primary anchor for BTC. Recent 7-day fees: BTC ~$2.58m/day vs ETH ~$6.74m/day. (CryptoFees)

Result: 12-month TP €130,000; Buy.

7) Key Risks (ranked by probability × impact)

1. Regulatory or tax shocks that curb ETF or ETP inflows.
   • European rule refinement under MiCA is ongoing; negative interpretations on custody, marketing, or capital rules could tighten access. Basel crypto exposure disclosures and standards come into fuller force by 2026 for banks. (www.hoganlovells.com)
2. Macro drawdown and risk-off.
   • A sharp reversal in risk assets or USD liquidity could compress flows, as seen in prior cycles.
3. Protocol fee weakness vs security budget.
   • Persistently low fees could stretch the post-2028 security budget when subsidy halves to 1.5625 BTC. Fee volatility remains high. (CoinGecko)
4. Adverse policy on mining energy.
   • Energy restrictions or carbon policies could raise operating costs or concentrate hashrate. Use CCAF CBECI to assess exposure. (ccaf.io)
5. Network-level incidents or wallet infrastructure failures.
   • Custody breaches or bugs in popular client stacks would impair institutional confidence.
6. ETF outflows concentration risk.
   • With US spot ETFs holding ~1.33m BTC, large outflows could amplify drawdowns. (Bitbo)
7. FX risk for EUR investors.
   • We quote the target in EUR, but BTC trades largely vs USD; EURUSD moves will affect outcomes.

8) Appendix

A) Expanded calculations

• Current price translation: $124,346 ÷ 1.1678 = €106,479. (European Central Bank)
• Annualized settlement base: $35.5B × 365 = $12.96T. (BitInfoCharts)
• MC/SV multiple: $2.48T ÷ $12.96T = 0.192x. (Coinbase)
• Target market cap: $15.93T × 0.19 = $3.03T.
• Target price USD: $3.03T ÷ 19.93m = $151,824.
• Target price EUR: $151,824 ÷ 1.1678 = ~€130,000. (European Central Bank)

B) KPI expansion and context

• Transactions/day: Recent ~444k; one year ago ~687k. Trend reflects batching, inscriptions cycles, and L2 anchoring. (YCharts)
• Average fee: Often <$1–$2 today, though spikes occur around inscription launches. YCharts shows recent $0.86 prints; BitInfoCharts corroborates low single-digit USD. (YCharts)
• Hashrate: ~1.0 ZH/s daily average late Sep; all-time high peaked higher in September. (YCharts)
• Lightning capacity: ~3,850 BTC capacity; nodes ~12.5k. Trend down from late-2023 peak near 5,400 BTC as topology optimizes. (X (formerly Twitter))

C) Regulatory summary for EU investors

• MiCA: Stablecoin provisions in force since 30 Jun 2024; CASP requirements apply since 30 Dec 2024; delegated acts and ESMA guidelines continue to roll out through 2025. (Squire Patton Boggs)
• Basel disclosures: Banks to publish crypto exposures from Jan 2026. (Reuters)
• Tax transparency: OECD CARF and EU DAC8 begin Jan 2026 for most platforms, elevating reporting obligations. (RSM US)

D) Peer data footnotes

• Visa FY24: $13.2T payments volume; 233.8B transactions. Convert to €11.3T at ECB FX for cross-currency comparison. (Q4 Capital)
• Gold market cap: $26.78T estimate using spot price × above-ground stock; we reference CompaniesMarketCap methodology as a public proxy. (Companies Market Cap)

E) Sensitivity to settlement growth and multiple

FX: EUR converted at ECB ref 1.1678; actual outcomes vary with EURUSD. (European Central Bank)

F) Data gaps

• Adjusted on-chain transfer volume (Coin Metrics “Adjusted Transfer Value” true 7-dma): DATA NEEDED for more precise NVT analysis. Suggested source: Coin Metrics “Network Data Pro” or The Block Data “Adjusted on-chain volume” time series. (Coin Metrics)
• Lightning economic throughput and L2 settlement composition: DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: 1ml.com, Amboss, academic work on LN routing economics. (1ml.com)

Disclosures, methodology, and important notes

• This report relies on public data and reputable aggregators for prices, flows, and network metrics. Key sources include Coinbase/Coingecko (prices, market cap), YCharts (fees, tx/day, miner revenue), The Block and CoinShares (flows), CompaniesMarketCap (gold cap), Visa 2024 annual report (payments volume), ECB (FX). Citations accompany the statistics. (Coinbase)
• On-chain settlement uses BitInfoCharts “sent coins in USD,” which may overstate raw value vs adjusted series. We treat it as a proxy given public accessibility. (BitInfoCharts)
• Forward estimates are our internal assumptions, not guarantees. Crypto assets are volatile and can result in loss of principal.

Regulatory and risk statement: Crypto assets are highly volatile. EU MiCA applies to CASPs, but investor protections differ from securities. Banks’ crypto exposure disclosures under Basel begin 2026. Tax reporting obligations will expand under CARF/DAC8 in 2026. (www.hoganlovells.com)

Compliance language:
This research was generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Do your own research and consider your objectives and risk tolerance. The author and platform accept no liability for decisions based on this content.