Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 121526.0 USD currently with a change of -2946.00 USD (-0.02%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 125094.0 USD and the intraday low is 120701.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument Bitcoin vs EUR (BTC_EUR)
• Current price €104,500 to €106,700 intraday range on 08 Oct 2025 CET. Reference spot: €104,511. CoinGecko BTC/EUR page, accessed 08 Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month target price €140,000
• Implied upside +34.0% vs €104,511 reference. Calculation: (140,000 − 104,511) ÷ 104,511 = 33.96 percent.
• Investment rating Buy
• Market cap (USD) ~$2.42 trillion as of 08 Oct 2025. CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)
• Circulating supply 19,931,556 BTC. CoinGecko references blockchain.info. (CoinGecko)
• Annual new issuance after Apr 2024 halving ~164,250 BTC. Calculation: 3.125 BTC × 144 blocks/day × 365 = 164,250. Halving on 20 Apr 2024 at block 840,000 cut subsidy to 3.125 BTC. (bitcoinblockhalf.com)
• Annualized supply inflation ~0.82%. Calculation: 164,250 ÷ 19,931,556 = 0.824%.

Factor profile (internal percentile estimates vs BTC’s major liquid “store of value” peers: ETH, gold):

• Growth 90th (1-yr EUR return >100% per Coinbase converter page). (Coinbase)
• Returns 75th (price up to new ATHs, with 30-day realized vol typically sub-60% since early 2023 per Kaiko). (Kaiko)
• Multiple 55th (valuation rich vs on-chain activity based on widely used NVT/MVRV bands; see Valuation). DATA NEEDED for precise latest prints. Suggested: CryptoQuant or MacroMicro for current NVT/MVRV. (Cryptoquant)
• Integrated 80th (institutional penetration via US spot ETFs, see flows and AUM below). (Bloomberg)

12-month price chart (USD): see interactive chart above. Price source: web tool feed. Currency note: widget shows USD; all targets and calls in this report use EUR unless stated.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — 3 bullets

1. Institutional capture accelerates liquidity and price discovery. US spot Bitcoin ETFs now approach $100 billion AUM at BlackRock IBIT alone, with the ETF complex recording ~$1.19 billion single-day net inflows on 06 Oct 2025, the second-largest on record. This strengthens demand depth and reduces frictions for allocators. (Bloomberg)
2. Programmed scarcity tightened in Apr 2024. The fourth halving reduced annual BTC issuance to ~0.82%, materially below gold’s estimated mine-driven stock growth. Structural supply contraction supports medium-term price given stable or rising demand. (bitcoinblockhalf.com)
3. Macro portfolio role is maturing. Kaiko shows 30-day realized vol has rarely been above 60% since early 2023 and was below 40% mid-2025; correlations to gold and equities remain regime-dependent, supporting a diversifier case. (Kaiko)

Positioning line
Digital monetary asset with tightening supply and institutional rails — initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF plumbing is a durable demand conduit

• IBIT AUM near $96–98.5 billion as of 07 Oct 2025 across issuer pages and financial press; FBTC ~€24–26 billion AUM range. Rapid growth underpins consistent primary market demand for spot BTC. (BlackRock)
• Flow momentum: US spot BTC ETFs saw $1.19 billion net inflow on 06 Oct, with IBIT ~ $970 million. Episodes of >$1 billion daily inflow have coincided with local price peaks but also underline allocator participation depth. (CoinDesk)
• Total spot BTC ETF net assets (various issuers) estimated $164.5 billion. Signal of scale and stickiness of institutional access. (SoSoValue)

2) Scarcity improves post-halving

• Issuance math: Block reward 3.125 BTC; ~144 blocks/day; ~450 BTC/day new supply; ~164,250 BTC/year now versus ~328,500 pre-halving. Annualized inflation ~0.82%, trending to ~0.4% after the next halving in 2028. Calculations use CoinGecko supply and standard block cadence. (CoinGecko)
• Halving date/height: 20 Apr 2024, block 840,000. (bitcoinblockhalf.com)

3) Improving microstructure and volatility profile

• Kaiko: realized vol regime has stabilized vs 2020–2022 episodes; 30-day realized vol often under 60% since early 2023 and <40% in July 2025, supporting broader mandates. (Kaiko)
• Liquidity backdrop: rising ETF depth and options market development; Kaiko notes robust market depth and spreads in 2025. (Kaiko Research)

4) Relative-value upside vs gold market size

• Gold market cap ~ $27.1 trillion. If BTC reaches 12 percent of gold’s capitalization within 12 months, implied BTC market cap target ~$3.25 trillion vs ~$2.42 trillion today suggests ~34 percent upside before supply growth. CompaniesMarketCap and CoinGecko data. (Companies Market Cap)

5) On-chain activity and fee economics support security budget

• Miner revenue per day ~ $52 million (29 Sep 2025), indicating a sustained security budget even post-halving; network hashrate ~ 991 EH/s on the same date underpins resilience. YCharts. (YCharts)
• The halving block saw historically high fees, evidencing willingness to pay during congestion. (CoinDesk)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Gold (as a monetary benchmark).

Sources: BTC/EUR price CoinGecko and exchanges; ETH/EUR recent levels CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance; gold market cap and WGC demand trends; Kaiko volatility commentary; see citations. Exact prints vary intraday. (CoinGecko)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Framework

We do not “model” earnings. We project network-level drivers that historically correlate to valuation multiples in crypto: supply, demand conduits, and activity.

Key drivers 2026E–2028E

• Supply path: programmed; see halving assumptions. Next halving expected April 2028 to 1.5625 BTC reward. (CoinGecko)
• ETF net flows: base case assumes US spot ETF complex net adds 200k–350k BTC over 12 months, anchored by IBIT leadership. This range triangulates from 2025 pace of AUM growth and recent $1.19B daily inflow episodes. Data points: IBIT AUM near $100B; US ETF total net assets ~ $165B. DATA NEEDED: precise cumulative BTC held across all US spot ETFs as of today. Suggested: Bitbo ETF tracker or issuers’ daily baskets. (CoinDesk)
• On-chain throughput: base assumes transaction counts normalize around 400k–500k/day with fee share 1–5% of miner revenue outside congestion spikes. YCharts last shows ~444k/day (29 Sep 2025). (YCharts)
• Security budget: miner revenue scales with USD price plus fee cycle; we benchmark to YCharts $52M/day baseline then grow with price. (YCharts)

KPI baseline (actuals, where available)

• Miners revenue/day: $52.0M (29 Sep 2025). YCharts. (YCharts)
• Hashrate: ~991 EH/s (29 Sep 2025). YCharts. (YCharts)
• Transactions/day: ~444k (29 Sep 2025). YCharts. (YCharts)

3-year top-line proxy model (EUR)

We use a simple two-step approach:

1. Market cap anchoring vs gold share
   • 2025A: BTC market cap $2.42T. (CoinGecko)
   • 2026E: reach 12% of gold market cap ($27.1T) → $3.25T implied. Upside +34%. (Companies Market Cap)
   • 2027E: 14% of gold → $3.79T.
   • 2028E pre-halving drift: 15% of gold → $4.07T.
2. ETF net-flow cross-check
   • If US spot ETFs reach 1.0–1.2 million BTC combined by end-2026 (IBIT currently ~773k by third-party tracker), incremental sequestration of 200–400k BTC lowers liquid float and raises clearing price. DATA NEEDED: audited ETF holdings by issuer in BTC. Suggested: issuer sites, Bitbo, Farside. (Bitbo)

Implied BTC_EUR price path (illustrative, using constant shares supply and spot EURUSD conversion indirectly via current € price):

• Base 12-month TP: €140,000 (+34%) from €104,511 ref, consistent with 12% gold share scenario. Calculation shown above.
• 2027E scenario: €162,000–€170,000 (14% share plus modest adoption tailwinds).
• 2028E scenario (pre-halving): €174,000–€185,000 (15% share).

Operating KPIs we will monitor quarterly

• ETF AUM, flows, and BTC balances by issuer. Sources: BlackRock IBIT page, Nasdaq/ETFdb/Morningstar trackers. (BlackRock)
• Hashrate and miner revenue. Source: YCharts and Blockchain.com. (YCharts)
• Adjusted on-chain transfer volume (for NVT). DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: Coin Metrics “Network Data Pro,” MacroMicro, CryptoQuant. (Coin Metrics)
• Non-zero addresses and address cohorts. DATA NEEDED exact latest print. Suggested sources: Glassnode studio, Bitcoin Magazine Pro charts. (Glassnode Studio)

6) Valuation

Primary approach: Monetary adoption share vs gold market size

• Assumption: BTC as a digital monetary asset continues converging toward gold’s market footprint.
• Gold market cap: ~$27.1T. CompaniesMarketCap. (Companies Market Cap)
• BTC market cap current: ~$2.42T. CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)
• Target share 12 months: 12% of gold → $3.25T.
• Implied price change: +34% to our €140,000 target.

Cross-checks

1. Security-budget cross-check
   • Post-halving base miner revenue $52M/day at current prices. If price rises 34%, subsidy revenue scales by ~34% in USD; assuming fees remain 1–5% of revenue outside spikes, the network security budget remains robust. YCharts provides baseline. (YCharts)
2. Relative scarcity vs gold (stock-to-flow)
   • BTC S2F ≈ 121 today: 19,931,556 ÷ 164,250. Gold S2F roughly 60 using World Gold Council stock and mine production estimates. BTC supply growth is now below gold. (World Gold Council)
3. On-chain valuation bands (informational only)
   • NVT/MVRV near long-term mid-high ranges during ATHs in Q3–Q4 2025. For precise readings, DATA NEEDED from CryptoQuant or MacroMicro. We refrain from pinning target multiples without current series values. (Cryptoquant)

Traditional forward P/E cross-check

• Not applicable. BTC has no earnings stream. We substitute to supply-demand and monetary share framing.

Conclusion

• Our €140,000 12-month target sits at the lower bound of reasonable adoption scenarios and below many sell-side and on-chain modeled “cycle” targets in late 2025. We consider it well-supported by the ETF adoption base case and post-halving scarcity.

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact

1. Flow reversal risk at ETFs. A turn in US ETF flows, fee wars, custody incidents or regulatory curbs can flip the net-buy impulse. Note that $1B+ daily inflow bursts have historically coincided with local peaks. (CoinDesk)
2. Regulatory regime shifts. While Europe advances MiCA, any adverse guidance in large markets could tighten access. DATA NEEDED for the exact ESMA CASP final standards timeline reference here. Suggested: ESMA MiCA updates.
3. Liquidity shock from macro. Rapid USD strength or risk-off could compress crypto liquidity and raise realized vol temporarily despite lower structural vol regime. Kaiko notes regime dependence. (Kaiko)
4. Security budget compression. A sustained fee drought plus a large BTC drawdown could reduce miner revenue and, at extremes, hash participation. Mitigant: current revenue and hashrate baselines. (YCharts)
5. Energy and environmental policy pressure. CBECI tracks significant power consumption. Policy responses in certain jurisdictions remain unpredictable. (CCAF)
6. Custody and operational risks. Bridge, exchange, or wallet failures could impair confidence and temporarily drive outflows to safety.
7. On-chain activity stagnation. If adoption stalls and adjusted transfer volume lags, NVT may rise into historically extended territory, challenging valuation. DATA NEEDED precise current NVT. Suggested: CryptoQuant, MacroMicro. (Cryptoquant)

8) Appendix

A) Calculations and quick references

• Issuance per day = 3.125 BTC × 144 = 450 BTC/day.
• Issuance per year = 450 × 365 = 164,250 BTC.
• Inflation rate = 164,250 ÷ 19,931,556 = 0.824%.
• Gold share approach:
  • Gold cap $27.1T. BTC current $2.42T.
  • 12% of gold = $3.25T → +34% vs $2.42T. Translate to €140k using reference €104,511 spot and same percentage move. (Companies Market Cap)

B) KPI dashboards and sources (live links on source pages)

• Bitcoin halving reference. BitcoinBlockHalf. (bitcoinblockhalf.com)
• BTC price, supply and market cap. CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)
• BTC/EUR spot references. CoinGecko BTC/EUR, Kraken converter, bitFlyer chart. (CoinGecko)
• US spot ETF AUM/flows. BlackRock IBIT page; CoinDesk and Decrypt flow articles; Bitbo ETF trackers; Nasdaq/Morningstar/ETFdb for FBTC. (BlackRock)
• Hashrate, fees, revenues. YCharts Bitcoin indicators. (YCharts)
• Volatility and correlation. Kaiko research notes. (Kaiko)
• Gold market size. CompaniesMarketCap; WGC demand trends. (Companies Market Cap)

C) Expanded discussion: energy lens

• CBECI provides a best-guess range for electricity usage. The index is actively maintained by Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and is a standard reference for policy dialogs. We use it to frame energy policy risk rather than for valuation. (CCAF)

D) Data gaps and to-dos for the model

• Adjusted on-chain transfer volume (7-dma) to refine NVT based valuation bands. DATA NEEDED. Suggested: Coin Metrics “Network Data Pro,” MacroMicro, CryptoQuant. (Coin Metrics)
• Lightning Network economic throughput to track L2 settlement share. DATA NEEDED. Suggested: mempool.space lightning explorer, Amboss, 1ml.
• Consolidated US and non-US spot ETF BTC holdings. DATA NEEDED. Suggested: issuer pages, Bitbo, Farside Investors datasets. (Bitbo)

E) Disclosure boilerplate

This report was prepared using publicly available information believed to be reliable, including crypto price aggregators, official issuer pages, reputable market data providers, and research publications. We do not guarantee accuracy or completeness. Prices and metrics change intraday.

Nothing herein is investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. This research is generated by AI for information purposes only and should not be used for investment purposes. Investing in cryptoassets involves a high degree of risk, including total loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Selected citations used in the main text

• BTC price, market cap, circulating supply. CoinGecko, accessed 08 Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)
• BTC/EUR spot level. CoinGecko BTC/EUR page, 08 Oct 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Halving date and reward cut. BitcoinBlockHalf; CoinGecko halving explainer. (bitcoinblockhalf.com)
• IBIT AUM and profitability. BlackRock iShares page; Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance articles and CoinDesk. (BlackRock)
• US spot ETF flows. Decrypt and CoinDesk reports, 06–07 Oct 2025. (Decrypt)
• YCharts network metrics. Miners revenue/day, hashrate, transactions/day, 29 Sep 2025. (YCharts)
• Gold market size. CompaniesMarketCap; WGC Gold Demand Trends 2024. (Companies Market Cap)
• Volatility regime. Kaiko research notes. (Kaiko)