Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 112189.0 USD currently with a change of -9137.00 USD (-0.08%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 122456.0 USD and the intraday low is 105262.0 USD.

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin priced in EUR
• Current price: €97,566 per BTC as of 06:05 CET on 11 Oct 2025, Coinbase BTC-EUR reference. (Coinbase)
• 12-month target price: €120,000 per BTC
• Implied upside: +23.0% vs €97,566 at today’s snapshot. Calculation: (120,000 − 97,566) ÷ 97,566. (Coinbase)
• Investment rating: Buy
• Circulating supply: ~19.93m BTC as of early Oct 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
• Block reward: 3.125 BTC since the fourth halving on 20 Apr 2024 at block 840,000. (CoinWarz)
• BTC market cap: ~$2.42T on 10 Oct 2025 end of day. ECB ref EURUSD 1.1568 on 10 Oct implies ~€2.09T. (YCharts)
• Dominance: ~58.8% of total crypto market cap currently. (CoinMarketCap)

Quick Factor Profile (percentiles vs peer set: ETH, Gold, Nasdaq 100, euro-area sovereigns by liquidity) – our internal scoring

• Growth 80
• Returns 70
• Multiple 45
• Integrated 65
  Explanation: Growth anchored to network security and ETF AUM momentum, Returns to TTM EUR performance, Multiple to NVT and MVRV vs long-run bands, Integrated combines liquidity, regulatory clarity in EU and adoption proxies. Statistics cited in later sections.

2. Investment Thesis — one-page tear-sheet

Positioning line: Digital Store-of-Value leader — initiate at Buy.

Why now — three bullets

• Institutional rails scaling: US spot bitcoin ETFs amassed ~$65.3B net inflows since launch and continue to see record weekly intake, while Europe’s ETP stack tops ~€16B AUM. Liquidity and distribution depth improve price discovery and dampen frictions. (Farside)
• Security and scarcity strengthening: Network hashrate reached the 1 ZH/s seven-day average milestone in Sep 2025, raising attack costs just months after the April 2024 supply halving to 3.125 BTC per block. Issuance falls to sub-1% annualized. (CoinDesk)
• EU rulebook clarity: MiCA phase-in is live for stablecoins from 30 Jun 2024 and broader CASP obligations are rolling in, reducing regulatory ambiguity for European buyers and platforms. (Squire Patton Boggs)

3. Investment Positives

1. ETF demand flywheel
   • US spot ETFs posted a record $5.95B weekly inflow in the week ending 4 Oct 2025, with Bitcoin capturing $3.55B of that. Europe and Switzerland also saw record inflows. (Reuters)
   • iShares IBIT has ~$97–100B AUM and holds ~799k BTC, now the largest single known holder on behalf of investors. Fee at 25 bps institutionalizes long-only demand. (Financial Times)
   • Read-through to EUR: ECB ref EURUSD 1.1568 implies US USD flows translate to ~€5.15B for that week alone. (European Central Bank)
2. Security underpins value
   • Seven-day average network hashrate hit ~1 ZH/s for the first time in Sep 2025, with daily prints oscillating near 0.9–1.1 ZH/s into Oct. Greater security and difficulty reduce attack vectors and support long-term holders. (CoinDesk)
3. Programmed scarcity after halving
   • Supply issuance now 3.125 BTC per block. At 144 blocks per day, modeled gross new issuance is ~450 BTC/day or ~164k BTC/year, which on a ~19.93m float equates to ~0.82% annualized inflation. Source confirmation on halving and blocks per day. (CoinWarz)
4. EU regulatory visibility
   • MiCA stablecoin regime effective 30 Jun 2024. Broader CASP duties phase in per competent authority guidance, improving consumer protection and onboarding. (Squire Patton Boggs)
5. Liquidity and distribution in Europe improving
   • Europe lists multiple large physical ETPs. Examples and AUM snapshots include 21Shares Bitcoin ETP ~€0.9–1.1B, Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP ~$1.45B on TrackInsight. (JustETF)

4. Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Nasdaq-100 proxy. Figures rounded and shown in EUR where relevant.

Sources: BTC supply and price levels CoinMarketCap historical and live pages; ETH supply and cap; gold above-ground stock from WGC and gold spot in EUR; ECB EURUSD ref rate 1.1568 on 10 Oct 2025; BTC dominance via CMC. (CoinMarketCap)

Calculation for gold market cap in EUR: 216,265t × 32,150.7466 oz/t × €3,459.99/oz = ~€24.06T. (World Gold Council)

5. Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Framework: We model top-down demand via three drivers in EUR terms

1. Net regulated-product inflows (US ETFs + European ETPs converted at ECB EURUSD)
2. On-chain fee revenue trend and security cost proxy
3. Scarcity through net new supply post-halving

Key operating KPIs and assumptions

• ETF and ETP net inflows
  • 2025E: Assume US + Europe combined net inflow equals $65B YTD plus $8B Q4 2025 to finish at $73B; translate at 1.16 USD per EUR to ~€63B. Baseline weekly cadence anchored by CoinShares and Farside trackers. (Farside)
  • 2026E: €50B
  • 2027E: €35B
  • 2028E: €25B
    Rationale: diminishing marginal flows as penetration rises, balanced by broader distribution on EU platforms.
• Issuance
  • 2026E-2028E modeled gross new supply: ~164k BTC/year until next halving, drifting lower as orphaned blocks and difficulty variances apply. Inflation ~0.8% annualized vs ~19.93m circulating base. (CoinWarz)
• Security cost proxy
  • Hashrate range: 0.9–1.1 ZH/s baseline through 2026 with upside to 1.3 ZH/s in bull case. (YCharts)
• On-chain fees
  • Recent daily total fees oscillate ~$0.24–1.53M per day in 2025 according to YCharts series, with 7-day average fee per tx near $1–1.3 in Oct. We assume $600k/day base in 2026 stepping up with activity spikes. (YCharts)
• Lightning capacity
  • Observed network capacity range ~3,850–3,900 BTC in late Aug to Oct 2025; we assume flat to slight growth as enterprise tooling improves. (1ml.com)

Three-year directional model — headline output (EUR)

• 2026E settlement value growth: +10 to 20 percent vs 2025 base, driven by ETFs distribution and price-led activity. DATA NEEDED for audited on-chain adjusted EUR series. Suggested source: Coin Metrics “Adjusted Transfer Value” converted via ECB rates. (Coin Metrics)
• 2027E settlement value growth: +5 to 10 percent
• 2028E settlement value growth: 0 to +5 percent as cycle matures

6. Valuation

Primary method: Store-of-Value share-of-gold framework in EUR

• Gold market cap in EUR: ~€24.06T using WGC above-ground stock 216,265t and €3,459.99/oz on 6 Oct 2025. (World Gold Council)
• Circulating BTC: ~19.93m. (CoinMarketCap)

Scenario prices

• Bear case 5 percent of gold: €24.06T × 5 percent ÷ 19.93m = ~€60k
• Base case 10 percent: ~€121k
• Bull case 20 percent: ~€241k
  Working shown above. Inputs cited.

12-month target: €120,000 — anchored to a probability-weighted view with heavier weight on base case as ETF distribution broadens and supply inflation is sub-1 percent. Cross-check with recent USD ATHs above $125k and current EURUSD. (The Economic Times)

Cross-checks

• NVT context: NVT 90-day smoothed sits near long-run band mid-highs. Not extreme versus prior cycle peaks. DATA NEEDED for precise print. Suggested sources: MacroMicro NVT or YCharts. (MacroMicro)
• MVRV context: MVRV within neutral-to-elevated zone in recent weeks. Exact Z-score needs subscription for point figure. Suggested source: Glassnode Studio. (Glassnode Studio)

Traditional multiples like P-E: Not applicable. Bitcoin has no earnings in the accounting sense. We therefore rely on monetary share-of-value anchors and on-chain valuation ratios.

7. Key Risks

1. Regulatory or policy shocks
   • Changes in EU MiCA interpretation or bank distribution rules could tighten access or increase capital charges on exposure. MiCA phases started in 2024 with continued implementation. (Squire Patton Boggs)
2. Liquidity withdrawal from ETFs and ETPs
   • A reversal of flows after 2025’s record week of $5.95B could pressure price and widen basis vs NAVs. (Reuters)
3. Network or market structure stress
   • Sharp fee spikes or exchange outages around macro events have occurred. Evidence of such incidents in Oct 2025 news flow. (CoinMarketCap)
4. Security, mining economics
   • If energy costs spike or hashprice falls, miner distress could cause hashrate pullbacks from the ~1 ZH/s region. (YCharts)
5. Energy and ESG headwinds
   • Estimates of Bitcoin’s electricity use range widely. Digiconomist shows annualized ~198 TWh currently, while Cambridge provides a methodology with different results. Policy responses may tighten. (Digiconomist)
6. Tax treatment variability
   • Germany’s tax rules allow crypto gains after a 12-month holding period to be tax-free for private sales, but documentation and use-case specifics matter. Guidance updated Mar 2025. Investors must seek personal advice. (Bundesministerium der Finanzen)

8. Appendix

A. Expanded model notes and calculations

• Issuance math
  • Blocks per day target: 144. Reward at 3.125 BTC implies 450 BTC/day. Annualized ~164,250 BTC. On a ~19.93m base supply, that is ~0.82 percent. Sources: halving date and reward, blocks per day design. (CoinWarz)
• ECB conversion for USD data
  • Example: Weekly crypto ETF inflow $5.95B for week ending 4 Oct 2025 equals €5.15B at 1 EUR = 1.1568 USD. (Reuters)
• Security metrics
  • Hashrate observations: CoinWarz and YCharts show daily values around 0.9–1.1 ZH/s through Oct 2025, with an ATH near 1.44 ZH/s on 20 Sep 2025 intraday. (CoinWarz)
• Dominance
  • CoinMarketCap dashboard shows BTC ~58.8 percent, ETH ~12.4 percent share today. (CoinMarketCap)
• Lightning capacity
  • Observed range near 3,860–3,900 BTC capacity in late Aug to Oct 2025 via 1ML and community trackers. (1ml.com)
• Energy consumption references
  • Method: Cambridge CBECI. Alternative estimate: Digiconomist lists ~198 TWh annualized with methodology caveats. (ccaf.io)

B. Peer detail pointers

• Ethereum snapshot: Price and cap vary; current page shows ~$3.8–4.5k pricing and ~$460–545B market cap depending on the day, supply ~120.7m. (CoinMarketCap)
• Gold
  • Above-ground stock 216,265 tonnes; EUR price example €3,459.99/oz on 6 Oct 2025 used for cap conversion. (World Gold Council)

C. Disclosure boilerplate

This report uses public sources believed to be reliable at the time cited. Statistics are time-stamped where possible and converted to EUR using the ECB euro reference rate for USD on 10 Oct 2025 unless noted. Crypto markets are volatile and data revisions are common.

Compliance: This research was generated by AI for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, digital asset, or instrument. It does not account for your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Do your own research and consult a qualified advisor. The author and platform do not guarantee accuracy or completeness.