Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current spot price (EUR): €95,173 per BTC. Source: CoinGecko BTC/EUR page, accessed Oct 16, 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Reference FX used for USD→EUR: EUR 1 = USD 1.1622 (ECB euro reference exchange rate for Oct 15, 2025). (European Central Bank)
• Circulating supply: 19,934,693 BTC as of Oct 14, 2025. Source: MacroMicro. (MacroMicro)
• Market capitalization (USD): $2.210 trillion. Realized capitalization (USD): $1.102 trillion. Both as of Oct 16, 2025, Coin Metrics “Rates”. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF total net assets: $157.2 billion as of Oct 13, 2025. Source: Yahoo Finance. (Yahoo Finance)
• Network hashrate: ~1,108 EH/s observed Oct 16, 2025. Source: Blockchain.com Explorer. (Blockchain)
• Most recent halving: Apr 20, 2024 (block 840,000). Source: CoinWarz. (CoinWarz)

12-month Price Target (EUR): €125,000
Implied upside: ~31% vs €95,173 spot. Calculation shown in Section 6.

Rating: Buy

“Factor profile” radar (analyst assessment vs peers, 0 to 100)
Growth 85 • Returns 70 • Multiple 55 • Integrated 72. Basis: on-chain realized cap growth, ETF adoption, historical cycle multiples and relative liquidity vs ETH and gold; see Sections 3–6 for sources.

12-month price chart

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 110629.0 USD currently with a change of -1965.00 USD (-0.02%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 113483.0 USD and the intraday low is 110292.0 USD.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — 3 bullets

• Institutional demand is durable. U.S. spot ETFs now hold ~$157 billion of BTC, creating a steady bid and deeper liquidity that compresses risk premia during pullbacks. (Yahoo Finance)
• Post-halving supply squeeze. Issuance fell to ~450 BTC/day, cutting annual inflation to ~0.8 percent and supporting higher equilibrium prices as adoption broadens. (bleap.finance)
• EU regulatory clarity. MiCA is fully applicable since Dec 30, 2024 with Level-2/3 standards rolling through 2025, lowering legal uncertainty for European allocators. (www.hoganlovells.com)

Positioning line: “Digital monetary network with accelerating institutional rails; initiate at Buy.”

3) Investment Positives

1. ETF flywheel and liquidity depth
   • Fact: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs’ aggregate NAV ~ $157.2B as of Oct 13, 2025. (Yahoo Finance)
   • Why it matters: Adds incremental, rules-based demand from wealth platforms and model portfolios.
   • Flow pulse: Farside and SoSoValue data show multi-billion weekly swings. Example: Oct 6 week saw very strong net inflows near record levels. (Farside)
2. Improving stock-to-flow dynamics after the 2024 halving
   • Fact: Block subsidy cut to 3.125 BTC on Apr 20, 2024, reducing new supply to ~450 BTC/day. (CoinWarz)
   • Implication: Annualized issuance ~0.8 percent of float, below estimated gold’s long-run 1 to 1.5 percent range, structurally tightening supply. (Finextra Research)
3. On-chain capital base expanding
   • Fact: Realized cap (on-chain cost basis proxy) ~$1.10T today after breaking $1T this summer. Sources: Coin Metrics; CoinDesk. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
   • Read-through: Higher realized cap indicates larger, stickier capital committed to BTC over time, dampening drawdown severity across cycles.
4. Regulatory clarity in Europe
   • Fact: MiCA framework fully effective from Dec 30, 2024, with ESMA issuing final guidelines in July 2025 on staff knowledge and competence for CASPs. (www.hoganlovells.com)
   • Benefit: Reduces headline risk for EU allocators. Some member states operate transitional periods into 2026 for legacy operators, but direction of travel is uniform licensing. (Central Bank of Ireland)
5. Network security at record levels
   • Fact: Estimated hashrate near 1,108 EH/s. High security cost helps shield against 51 percent attacks and increases institutional comfort. (Blockchain)
6. Macro optionality
   • Fact: BTC achieved a new ATH of ~$125,400 on Oct 5, 2025; market cap ~$2.45T then. Confirms cycle strength despite macro volatility. (Investopedia)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Gold. All EUR figures use ECB 1.1622 USD/EUR on Oct 15, 2025. (European Central Bank)

Sources: BTC EUR: CoinGecko; ETH EUR: CoinGecko; BTC market cap and realized cap: Coin Metrics; Gold market cap: CompaniesMarketCap; ECB FX. (CoinGecko)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

We model BTC from the lens of its on-chain capital base (realized cap), supply path, and a valuation multiple on realized cap akin to an equity multiple.

Key model inputs

• Starting point (Oct 16, 2025)
  • Realized cap: $1,101.8B. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
  • Market cap: $2,210.0B. Implied MVRV ≈ 2.0x today = 2,210 / 1,101.8. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
  • Circulating supply: 19,934,693 BTC. (MacroMicro)
  • Issuance: ~450 BTC/day post-halving. Annual ~164,250 BTC. (bleap.finance)
  • FX: 1 EUR = 1.1622 USD. (European Central Bank)
• ETF assumption
  • U.S. spot ETF NAV base: $157.2B. We assume +25 percent YoY growth in NAV by Oct 2026, driven by platform penetration and advisor model adoption. Starting point cited; growth is an assumption. (Yahoo Finance)
• MiCA transition
  • MiCA fully applicable since Dec 30, 2024, with 2025 guidance published by ESMA. We assume steady EU wealth-platform onboarding from 2026. (www.hoganlovells.com)

3-year forward model (base case)

A) Supply path

• Oct 2025 supply S₀ = 19,934,693.
• Annual issuance I ≈ 164,250 BTC.
• Oct 2026 supply S₁ ≈ 19,934,693 + 164,250 = 20,098,943.
• Oct 2027 supply S₂ ≈ 20,263,193.
• Oct 2028 supply S₃ ≈ 20,427,443. Issuance estimate holds until next halving near 2028. Issuance metric source. (bleap.finance)

B) Realized cap growth

• Driver: rising long-term holder cost basis, ETF accumulation, corporate treasuries.
• We assume +10 percent in Year 1, +8 percent in Year 2, +5 percent in Year 3, from the $1,101.8B base. Starting point cited; growth is an assumption. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)

Computed realized cap path:

• Oct 2026 R₁ = 1,101.8 × 1.10 = $1,211.9B.
• Oct 2027 R₂ = 1,211.9 × 1.08 = $1,308.9B.
• Oct 2028 R₃ = 1,308.9 × 1.05 = $1,374.3B.

C) Multiple on realized cap (MVRV) assumptions

• Today ≈ 2.0x. Cycle mid-expansion has historically seen MVRV in the 2.0–3.0x corridor, with Z-score extremes at peaks. We anchor at 2.4x for 12-month fair value, 2.2x in Year 2, 2.1x in Year 3. Historical behavior and definitions sourced; the specific forward multiples are assumptions. (docs.glassnode.com)

D) Price path (USD)

• 12-month target market cap = R₁ × 2.4x = $1,211.9B × 2.4 = $2,908.6B.
• 12-month target price = $2,908.6B ÷ S₁ = $2,908,600m ÷ 20.098943m = $144,700.
• 24-month scenario: $1,308.9B × 2.2 = $2,879.6B; price = $2,879.6B ÷ 20.263m ≈ $142,100.
• 36-month scenario: $1,374.3B × 2.1 = $2,886.1B; price = $2,886.1B ÷ 20.427m ≈ $141,300.
  • Note: flat USD outcomes beyond 12 months reflect diminishing multiple as the cycle matures in our base case.

E) Convert to EUR

• Using EUR 1 = USD 1.1622, 12-month € target = $144,700 ÷ 1.1622 ≈ €124,600. (European Central Bank)

6) Valuation

Primary method: Realized-cap multiple (MVRV)

• Inputs: Realized cap today $1,101.8B; 12-m realized cap assumption $1,211.9B; target multiple 2.4x; supply 20.099m. Sources for realized cap and supply cited in Sections 1 and 5. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• 12-month target price: $144,700 → €124,600.
• Implied upside: ~31 percent vs €95,173 current. (CoinGecko)

Why MVRV: For a monetary asset without cash flows, valuation must normalize market cap to a fundamental stock of deployed capital. MVRV and its z-score variant are widely used on-chain gauges. (docs.glassnode.com)

Cross-checks

1. Digital gold share-of-market
   • Gold market cap $29.506T; BTC at 10 percent share implies BTC cap $2.951T. Price = $2.951T ÷ 20.099m = $146,800, or €126,300 at ECB FX. Sources: CompaniesMarketCap; ECB; issuance path from Section 5. (CompaniesMarketCap)
2. Current MVRV sanity
   • Today’s MVRV ≈ 2.0x using Coin Metrics cap set. A 2.4x 12-month anchor is within historical mid-cycle ranges, below prior peak regimes identified by MVRV-Z extremes. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)

Conclusion: Cross-checks bracket the base-case target. We set 12-month PT = €125,000 and rating = Buy.

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact on our estimates.

1. Macro shock drives forced deleveraging
   • Evidence: A $19B liquidation wave on Oct 10–11, 2025 followed tariff headlines, taking BTC intraday to ~$104.8k before rebounding. Liquidity can evaporate. (Reuters)
   • Impact: Multiple compression below 2.0x MVRV.
2. ETF flow reversal
   • Evidence: Day-to-day U.S. ETF flows swing from > $1B inflow days to outflows. NAV currently $157B, but path dependency is high. (Farside)
   • Impact: Weakens the demand floor and raises volatility.
3. Regulatory tightening or supervisory friction in the EU
   • Evidence: ESMA warnings to CASPs about marketing and license passporting scrutiny. Implementation details continue to evolve across member states. (Reuters)
   • Impact: Slower EU wealth-platform integration, delayed MiCA tailwind.
4. Security or protocol risk
   • Mitigant: Hashrate at ~1,108 EH/s increases attack cost. Still, software bugs or ecosystem incidents can impair confidence. (Blockchain)
5. ESG and power-use headline risk
   • Evidence: Cambridge CBECI tracks power demand and methodology; narratives can pressure institutional mandates even without new regulation. (CCAF Digital Tools)
6. Competition for savings from gold or sovereign yields
   • Evidence: Gold at a record price in Oct 2025, benefiting from macro stress; higher real yields can crowd out non-yielding assets. (Reuters)
7. Model risk
   • MVRV is not a discounted cash flow. It proxies stock of capital committed. Deviations from historical regimes can sustain for long periods.

8) Appendix

A) Expanded model tables

Base case

Notes: Oct 2025 USD spot shown for reference is approximate and aligns with Coin Metrics cap divided by supply; EUR conversion uses ECB 1.1622 USD per EUR. Sources as per Sections 1, 5 and 6. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)

Sensitivity: 12-month target to MVRV and realized-cap growth

• If MVRV 2.2x and realized-cap growth 8 percent → cap = $1,189.9B × 2.2 = $2,617.8B → price ≈ $130,200 → €112,000.
• If MVRV 2.6x and realized-cap growth 12 percent → cap = $1,234.0B × 2.6 = $3,208.4B → price ≈ $159,600 → €137,300.
  • FX per ECB 1.1622. (European Central Bank)

B) Operating KPIs to watch

• Realized cap and MVRV Z-score for cycle state. (CoinDesk)
• ETF net assets and flows inclination. (Yahoo Finance)
• Hashrate and fees share post-halving. Hashrate source cited; fee share DATA NEEDED (suggest: The Block Data, Coin Metrics). (Blockchain)
• Addresses with non-zero balance trend as broad adoption gauge. DATA NEEDED for exact current print (suggest: Glassnode dashboard). (studio.glassnode.com)

C) Legal, policy and tax context for EU investors

• MiCA. Fully applicable Dec 30, 2024; ESMA finalized knowledge and competence guidelines in July 2025; various Level-2/3 measures published or pending. (www.hoganlovells.com)
• Germany tax snapshot for individuals. BMF guidance confirms crypto as “other assets” under §23 EStG; gains on disposals held > 1 year are not taxable; within one year, gains taxable subject to thresholds. Latest consolidated BMF circular Mar 6, 2025. (Bundesministerium der Finanzen)
  • Practical guides consistent with this treatment: CoinTracker, Koinly, Kraken, Blockpit. (CoinTracker)
  • Note: Corporate and staking nuances differ; consult tax counsel.

D) Disclosures and sources list

• Prices and market caps: CoinGecko BTC/EUR and ETH/EUR; Coin Metrics Rates for BTC caps; ECB for FX; CompaniesMarketCap for gold market cap. (CoinGecko)
• ETF data: Yahoo Finance synthesis; Farside flows. (Yahoo Finance)
• On-chain metrics: Coin Metrics SOTN; Glassnode concepts; Bitbo for definitions where used; MVRV-Z documentation from Glassnode. (Coin Metrics)
• Macro and market context: Investopedia for ATH; Reuters for macro shock episodes; MarketWatch summarizing liquidation scale. (Investopedia)
• Hashrate and energy: Blockchain.com Explorer; Cambridge CBECI site. (Blockchain)

Compliance and disclaimers

This report was generated by an AI system for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. The analysis relies on third-party sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Digital assets are volatile and can result in total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult qualified advisors before making investment decisions.

Calculation detail for 12-month target

• R₁ = $1,101.8B × 1.10 = $1,211.9B. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• Target cap = R₁ × 2.4 = $2,908.6B.
• S₁ ≈ 19.9347m + 164,250 = 20.0989m. (MacroMicro)
• Target price USD = $2,908.6B ÷ 20.0989m = $144,700.
• Target price EUR = $144,700 ÷ 1.1622 = €124,600. (European Central Bank)

If you want, I can extend the peer table with realized vol and NVT once we lock specific data sources for those datapoints.