Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) – Initiation of Coverage

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (spot): €94,356 per BTC as of 06:29 CEST on 20 Oct 2025, Google Finance, cross-checked with Coinbase €94,473. (Google)
• 12-month target price: €125,000
• Implied upside: 32.5% = 125,000 ÷ 94,356 − 1. Calculation shown below.
• Investment rating: Buy
• Market cap (EUR): €1.86T. (Binance)
• Circulating supply: ~19.94M BTC. (Investing.com)
• Supply cap: 21M BTC. (Investing.com)
• Block reward: 3.125 BTC post the 20 Apr 2024 halving. (Blockpit)
• US spot ETF cumulative net inflows: ~$65B since Jan 2024 launch, as of 17 Oct 2025.

Quick factor profile (percentile vs ETH and Gold, 100 best):

• Growth 67, Returns 60, Multiple 55, Integrated 61.
  Method: score BTC vs ETH and Gold on 1-year price return, liquidity depth, issuance trend, and a valuation proxy (market cap vs settlement/peer), normalize to percentiles. Inputs cited below. (Investing.com)

12-month price chart (proxy in USD for visual trend):

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 110242.0 USD currently with a change of 3086.00 USD (0.03%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 110428.0 USD and the intraday low is 106172.0 USD.

Note: Widget shows BTC-USD. Euro performance aligns directionally given EURUSD ~1.167 on 17 Oct 2025. (European Central Bank)

Key calculations

• Implied upside: 125,000 ÷ 94,356.04 − 1 = 32.48%.
• Annual new issuance: 3.125 BTC × 144 blocks/day × 365 = 164,250 BTC/year, ≈ 0.824% of 19.94M supply. (Bitbo Charts)
  Calculation: 164,250 ÷ 19,940,000 = 0.00824 = 0.824%.

2. Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now – 3 bullets

1. Structural demand from spot ETFs remains the dominant marginal buyer. US spot ETFs have accrued ~$65B net inflows since launch, anchoring incremental demand during sell-offs. We expect continued wallet-share gains in traditional portfolios.
2. Programmatic supply squeeze post the Apr 2024 halving cut gross issuance to ~164k BTC/year. At current float, issuance equals ~0.8% of supply, below typical developed market money supply growth and most commodity new supply. (Blockpit)
3. Macro hedge bid. Gold’s surge to >$4,300/oz and ~$30T market cap has re-priced stores of value. If BTC closes part of the gap from ~7–8% of gold’s market cap toward ~10% in 12 months, fair value supports our target. (Reuters)

Positioning line: Digital monetary network with accelerating institutional rails – initiate at Buy.

3. Investment Positives

1) ETF plumbing has changed the demand curve

• US spot ETFs cumulative net inflows ~$65B as of 17 Oct 2025, sustaining price through volatility and broadening distribution to retirement and wealth channels.
• Effect: a structural “bid” that is insensitive to short-term crypto-native flows.

2) Issuance is now scarcity-like

• Post-halving block reward is 3.125 BTC. With a design target of ~144 blocks/day, annual issuance ~164,250 BTC or ~0.824% of supply, down from ~1.65% pre-halving. (Blockpit)
• Comparative frame: fixed cap 21M and falling issuance are unique among major monetary assets. (Investing.com)

3) Macro hedge tailwinds

• Gold’s explosive repricing in 2025 to >$4,300/oz lifted its market cap to ~$30T, highlighting demand for stores of value amid policy and geopolitical risk. A small share-gain by BTC translates to large nominal upside. (Reuters)

4) Network fundamentals resilient

• Miner revenue/day near $55.8M on 13 Oct 2025, up ~95% y/y, despite halving, reflecting price and activity. Network hash rate near 1.14B TH/s in mid-Oct, underscoring security spend. (YCharts)

5) Regulatory visibility in Europe improving

• MiCA has been fully applicable since 30 Dec 2024, with ESMA guidelines and Level-2/3 measures progressing through 2025, reducing regime uncertainty for EU investors and service providers. (ESMA)

4. Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold. All figures in EUR where available.

Sources: BTC price and market cap in EUR via Binance and Coinbase converters; ETH EUR via Binance; Gold price via Reuters and WGC; EURUSD via ECB; supply via Investing.com and WGC. (Binance)

Comments

• BTC’s 1-yr EUR return +51.6% trails Gold’s ~+56.7% this year but exceeds ETH’s +35.8% in EUR. BTC remains the deepest crypto liquidity pool with the most mature regulated wrappers. (Investing.com)

5. Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Framework: For a monetary asset, we focus on supply, demand rails, and base-layer “top-line” activity. We model 3 years of key drivers: issuance, ETF net flows, miner revenue, and a scenario path for EUR price.

5.1 Key operating KPIs and assumptions

• Supply issuance:
  • Reward 3.125 BTC, target ~144 blocks/day. Annual issuance ~164,250 BTC. Issuance rate ~0.824% of 19.94M. Assumed constant block cadence and no protocol change. (Blockpit)
• ETF net inflows:
  • Base case assumes US spot ETF net inflows $60B over the next 12 months, decelerating from the $65B realized to date, then $40B in year 2 and $30B in year 3 as penetration matures. Benchmark starting level from Farside Investors.
• Miner revenue/day:
  • Starting point $55.8M/day on 13 Oct 2025. We assume miner revenue tracks price and on-chain fee cycles with a +12% CAGR 2026–2028 in base case, +20% bull, 0% bear. (YCharts)
• Hash rate:
  • Start ~1.14B TH/s mid-Oct 2025. Assume +10% CAGR as hardware efficiency gains offset energy constraints. (YCharts)
• Energy and sustainability:
  • Reference CBECI best-guess annual consumption ~138 TWh, sustainable share ~52% per Cambridge Digital Mining Industry Report 2025. Assumed mix improves modestly. (Cambridge Judge Business School)

5.2 3-year model – activity and flows (base case unless noted)

A) Supply math

• Annual BTC created: 164,250.
• Projected circulating supply trajectory:
  • 12 months: 19.94M + 0.164M = ~20.10M.
  • 24 months: ~20.26M.
  • 36 months: ~20.42M. Inputs from halving mechanics. (Blockpit)

B) ETF flows and implied demand absorption

• Base case 12-month net ETF inflows: $60B. If 60% of flows are net new BTC purchases at average $120k USD spot, that implies ~500k BTC absorbed over 12 months. This exceeds issuance ~164k BTC, indicating a structural net bid. Source for flows level to date: Farside. Assumption for future pace is ours.

C) Miner revenue and fee market

• Starting $55.8M/day x 365 = $20.4B/year miner revenue run-rate. We model base CAGR +12% to $22.8B, $25.5B, $28.5B in the next 3 fiscal years, acknowledging high variance. Source level YCharts. (YCharts)

D) Price path scenarios (EUR, 12-month horizon)

• Base: €125,000 (our target) driven by 10% share of gold market cap assumption and ETF flow deceleration.
  • Gold share math: 10% of $30T = $3T market cap for BTC. Price per BTC in USD = $3T ÷ 19.94M ≈ $150,450. Convert at 1 USD = 0.857 EUR (ECB 1 EUR = 1.168 USD on 17 Oct 2025): €128,936. We haircut to €125,000 to reflect execution and volatility risk. (CoinDesk)
• Bull: €160,000 if BTC reaches ~12.5% of gold market cap and ETF flows sustain.
• Bear: €85,000 on ETF outflows and macro risk-off.

E) “Top-line” on-chain activity proxy

• We track transactions/day and estimated fees as operating intensity. Recent miner revenue/day cited above; blockchain transactions/day fluctuate widely. Latest indicative series shows ~0.5–0.6M tx/day with variance. DATA NEEDED for precise EUR-converted fee totals and adjusted settlement volume. Suggested sources: Blockchain.com, YCharts, Coin Metrics. (YCharts)

6. Valuation

Primary method: Relative “multiple” vs settlement proxy and store-of-value share

1. Store-of-value share cross-check

• Reference gold market cap ~$30T. BTC today ~$2.2T USD market cap implies ~7–8% of gold. Our 12-month base assumes 10%, which implies $3.0T BTC market cap. At 19.94M coins, this yields $150,450 per BTC or €128,936 at ECB EURUSD, supporting our €125,000 target. (CoinDesk)

2. Network Value to Transactions (NVT) sense-check

• NVT reflects market cap vs on-chain USD settlement. Public dashboards define and track NVT but precise contemporaneous values vary. Current NVT regime is consistent with late-cycle but not extreme readings on independent trackers. DATA NEEDED for precise spot NVT and a consistent peer framework. Suggested sources: Blockchain.com, Bitbo, Santiment. (Blockchain.com)

3. Traditional multiples cross-check

• Forward P/E is Not applicable. BTC has no earnings; miners earn revenue, not the network. We show no P/E comparison to peers.

Target derivation recap

• Base fair value from 10% of gold cap → €128,936 by math above. Apply ~3% execution haircut and volatility buffer → €125,000 12-month target.

7. Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. ETF flow reversal

• US spot ETF inflows ~ $65B since launch have been the marginal buyer. A reversal due to macro or regulatory shocks would weaken the demand floor.

2. Regulatory tightening in EU under MiCA implementation

• ESMA has sharpened guidance on reverse solicitation and competence. Narrowing safe harbors could constrain marketing, product design and access. Timing and interpretation risks persist through 2025. (Maples)

3. Energy and ESG pressure

• Cambridge estimates ~138 TWh annualized consumption and ~52% sustainable energy share. Political or utility-level backlash in key jurisdictions could raise costs or constrain mining, affecting security budget. (Cambridge Judge Business School)

4. Fee market softness

• If on-chain demand or L2 settlement does not translate into base-layer fees, total miner revenue could lag price. Starting point $55.8M/day is cyclical. (YCharts)

5. Macro drawdown correlation

• In risk-off episodes BTC can correlate with equities, forcing de-risking and ETF outflows. No guarantee of negative correlation when most needed.

6. Technology and protocol risks

• While Bitcoin’s code and ossified roadmap reduce change risk, tail risks exist. Significant bugs or concentrated mining could impair trust. DATA NEEDED for latest client diversity and miner concentration by jurisdiction. Suggested sources: blockchain.com pools, academic papers. (Blockchain.com)

7. Custody and market structure

• Exchange or custodian incidents can impact short-term price discovery. EU MiCA should improve standards, but transition risk remains. (ESMA)

8. Appendix

A) Expanded models and calculations

Gold share method – detailed

• Gold cap $30T. Source triangulation: WGC context and contemporaneous press reporting. (World Gold Council)
• Target BTC share 10% → $3.0T.
• Supply used 19.94M BTC. (Investing.com)
• Implied price $3.0T ÷ 19.94M = $150,450.
• ECB EURUSD 1.168 on 17 Oct 2025. 1 USD = 0.857 EUR. Price $150,450 × 0.857 = €128,936. Rounding to €125,000 target. (European Central Bank)

Issuance math – detailed

• Reward = 3.125 BTC; target blocks/day ~144. Annual new BTC 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250. Issuance rate 164,250 ÷ 19.94M = 0.824%. (Blockpit)

Miner revenue trajectory – base

• Start $55.8M/day (13 Oct 2025). Annualized $20.4B.
• Apply +12% CAGR → Year1 $22.8B, Year2 $25.5B, Year3 $28.5B. Source level YCharts. (YCharts)

ETF flow absorption illustration

• Base 12-month net inflows $60B. If 60% turns into net BTC buys at $120k avg USD price, units absorbed $36B ÷ $120k = 300k BTC. If 100% is net (aggressive), 500k BTC at $120k. Both exceed issuance 164k, tightening float. Source to date Farside; forward assumption is ours.

B) Peer table sources and notes

• BTC/EUR price and 1-year change from Investing.com BTC/EUR page. (Investing.com)
• BTC market cap EUR from Binance and Coinbase converters. (Binance)
• ETH/EUR price and market cap EUR via Binance, 1-yr change from Investing.com ETH/EUR page. (Binance)
• Gold price via Reuters and WGC datasets; EUR translation using ECB reference. (Reuters)

C) Regulatory timeline references

• MiCA in force June 2023; applicable since 30 Dec 2024; ongoing Level 2 and Level 3 finalization through 2025. (ESMA)

D) Environmental references

• Cambridge Digital Mining Industry Report 2025 and CBECI portal for ~138 TWh and ~52% sustainable energy share. (Cambridge Judge Business School)

E) Disclosures, data gaps, and how to close them

• NVT and settlement volume: DATA NEEDED for TTM adjusted transfer value in EUR. Suggested: Coin Metrics community charts, Blockchain.com NVT definitions. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• Daily active addresses: Public trackers disagree on exact point values. DATA NEEDED for harmonized daily and 30-day averages. Suggested: Bitinfocharts, CryptoQuant, Glassnode. (BitInfoCharts)
• ETH net issuance 1-yr: DATA NEEDED from ultrasound.money for apples-to-apples peer comparison. (ultrasound.money)

Valuation and Rating Summary

• Target: €125,000 per BTC in 12 months.
• Method: Store-of-value share cross-check vs gold, supported by supply dynamics and institutional rails.
• Implied upside: ~32.5% from €94,356 spot. (Google)
• Rating: Buy.

Compliance and methodology notes

• Sources are cited next to each statistic with date where provided. Data are inherently volatile and subject to revision.
• BTC is a non-income producing asset. Traditional equity metrics like P/E are not applicable.
• The 12-month target reflects scenario analysis, flow assumptions, and FX. Outcomes may differ materially.

Standard compliance language
This report has been generated by AI based on publicly available information believed to be reliable at the time of writing. It is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Digital assets are highly volatile and may be illiquid. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance. The author and platform assume no liability for errors or omissions.