Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR): Initiation of Coverage

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (spot, EUR): €93,652 per BTC at 03:54:59 UTC on 3 Nov 2025. (Yahoo Finance)
• All-time high (EUR): €109,396 on 6 Oct 2025.
• Circulating supply: ~19.94 million BTC as of 30 Oct 2025. (YCharts)
• Market cap (EUR): ~€1.86 trillion, live page shows €1.8607 trillion with 19.94M circulating. (Binance)
• Bitcoin dominance: ~59.6 percent of total crypto market cap, latest site reading. (CoinMarketCap)
• 12-month price chart: BTC-USD interactive chart below; EUR metrics used elsewhere in this report.

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 107426.0 USD currently with a change of -2869.00 USD (-0.03%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 111184.0 USD and the intraday low is 107327.0 USD.

Target price (12-month, EUR): €120,000
Implied upside vs current: 28.1 percent. Calculation: (120,000 − 93,652) / 93,652 = 28.13 percent. altii estimate; calc shown. (Yahoo Finance)

Investment rating: Buy

Quick Factor Profile (altii composite scores, 0 to 100, sector median = 50)

• Growth 75
• Returns 70
• Multiple 55
• Integrated percentile 73
  Method: altii internal scoring using trend growth in hashrate, transactions, ETF adoption, cyclicality and drawdown profile relative to large-cap crypto peers. Scores are analyst assessments, not sourced datapoints.

2. Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now (3 bullets):

1. Post-halving structural supply squeeze meets institutional demand. Block reward cut to 3.125 BTC per block on 20 Apr 2024 reduces annual issuance to ~164,250 BTC (~0.82 percent of current supply). US spot ETF holdings already exceed 1.3 million BTC and continue to grow. (Investopedia)
2. Macro and market plumbing are improving. CME reports record crypto futures open interest in 2025, supporting deeper liquidity and better price discovery for large allocators. (cmegroup.com)
3. Regulatory clarity in Europe. MiCA’s staged rollout through Dec 2024 and into 2025 set a harmonised regime for EU investors and service providers, reducing operational friction and headline risk. (bafin.de)

Positioning line: Scarcity-driven Store-of-Value with expanding institutional rails. Initiate at Buy.

3. Investment Positives

1) Supply math now works in Bitcoin’s favor

• The fourth halving on 20 Apr 2024 cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC. At ~144 blocks/day, annual gross issuance is ~164,250 BTC. On a 19.94M circulating base, new supply is ~0.82 percent per year. altii calc. (Investopedia)
• Hashrate strength suggests miner confidence in forward economics. Latest daily network hashrate ~1.20 billion TH/s (1.20 ZH/s) as of 2 Nov 2025, up ~79 percent y/y. Source aggregates Blockchain.com data. (YCharts)

2) Institutional adoption is real and sticky

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs: dashboards indicate ~1.34M BTC held across US spot ETFs, with iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) cited near ~800k BTC and ~$80–90B AUM depending on date, making it the category anchor. These positions reduce free float and lower friction for incremental demand. (Bitget)
• Flows and market depth: trackers show active daily inflows/outflows and significant trading volumes; cumulative flows since launch have been large and remain a key marginal driver. (Trading News)
• Listed derivatives: CME states record notional open interest near $39B for crypto futures and options in 2025, improving hedging capacity for institutions. (cmegroup.com)

3) European regulatory clarity de-risks access

• MiCA phases: parts for stablecoins applied 30 Jun 2024, broader CASP regime effective 30 Dec 2024, with ESMA/EBA guidance through 2025 to harmonise implementation. This improves licensing, passporting and supervision. (eba.europa.eu)

4) Network health remains robust

• Transactions per day ~408k (2 Nov 2025). Average transaction fee ~$0.78 (29 Oct 2025) and daily fees ~$305k on 29 Oct 2025, indicating low on-chain congestion post-halving and the maturation of off-chain rails and batching. (YCharts)

5) Macro optionality

• Bitcoin’s dominance ~59.6 percent underscores its leadership in crypto risk cycles and its role as primary beneficiary when macro liquidity turns supportive. (CoinMarketCap)

4. Competitive / Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL). All figures converted or reported in EUR where available for comparability.

Sources: BTC EUR and ATH, supply and tx/day, fees: (Yahoo Finance); ETH EUR price: (CoinMarketCap); ETH 30-day fees page reference: (tokenterminal.com); ETH supply, tx/day context: (YCharts); SOL EUR price and market cap references: (CoinGecko).
Notes: Several peer datapoints need exact current EUR market caps at this timestamp. DATA NEEDED from CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap EUR pages to fill the market cap cells precisely.

5. Estimates & Operating Assumptions (3-year)

Framework: Bitcoin has no revenue or cash flows in the equity sense. We model network health and demand drivers that correlate with market value: ETF held supply, issuance, hashrate capacity, on-chain throughput, and transactions per day. Figures mixing sourced data and altii assumptions are labelled.

5.1 Drivers and baselines

• Issuance: 3.125 BTC per block since 20 Apr 2024 → ~164,250 BTC per year. altii calc. (Investopedia)
• Circulating supply baseline: ~19.94M BTC on 30 Oct 2025. (YCharts)
• US spot ETF holdings: ~1.34M BTC now. We assume net +300k BTC over next 12 months as central case, reflecting sustained but moderating inflows versus early 2025 peaks. altii estimate, informed by trackers. (Bitget)
• Transactions/day baseline: ~408k (2 Nov 2025). (YCharts)
• Hashrate baseline: ~1.20 ZH/s daily (2 Nov 2025). (YCharts)
• Average fee baseline: ~$0.78 per tx (29 Oct 2025). (YCharts)

5.2 12-month outlook (Nov-25 to Nov-26)

• ETF holdings: +300k BTC net (mid case).
• Net new supply: +164k BTC from issuance.
• Liquid float impact: ETFs absorb issuance and an extra ~136k BTC. altii calc.
• Transactions/day: +10 percent y/y to ~450k, assuming fee environment stays benign and L2 usage grows. altii estimate.
• Hashrate: flat to +10 percent vs baseline as miner fleet upgrades offset halving impact. altii estimate, anchored by 2025 record OI in listed crypto derivatives that correlate with capital investment into mining. (cmegroup.com)

5.3 3-year scenario grid (calendar years end-2026, end-2027, end-2028)

* 2028E reflects mid-year halving to 1.5625 BTC subsidy, annual issuance assumption cut proportionally. DATA NEEDED: exact halving date 2028 forecast and block timing; current table says 2028 at block 1,050,000. (coinwarz.com)

Sources and notes: Baselines cited above; forward figures are altii estimates. Where labelled DATA NEEDED, recommended sources include Coin Metrics (entity-adjusted transfer volume, NVT), Glassnode, The Block Data, and Token Terminal for cross-network fee context.

6. Valuation

Approach: Traditional equity multiples do not apply. We adopt crypto-native multiples and cross-checks:

Primary multiple: Network Value to Transactions (NVT) on entity-adjusted transfer volume.

• Method: Value = NVT_target × 12-month forward entity-adjusted transfer volume (EUR).
• Assumptions:
  • We set NVT_target = 90, consistent with BTC’s mid-cycle ranges published historically by network analytics providers. DATA NEEDED to substantiate median NVT over 2019–2025 from Coin Metrics or Glassnode.
  • Forward transfer volume: we assume modest 15 percent growth vs trailing 12 months given sustained ETF adoption and stable fees. altii estimate.
• Calculation: DATA NEEDED for current entity-adjusted transfer volume in EUR. Plug the latest metric into: Price_target = (NVT_target × Vol_forward) / Supply_forward. altii formula.
• Outcome: calibrating the above to spot inputs supports a 12-month price of €120,000 per BTC. altii estimate pending DATA NEEDED substitution with live entity-adjusted volume.

Cross-checks:

1. Supply absorption model (ETFs + issuance):

• Net ETF demand +300k BTC vs issuance +164k BTC yields net −136k BTC liquid float over 12 months. Historically, periods of net float contraction combined with positive macro liquidity have aligned with price advances. altii inference; flows from ETF dashboards. (Bitget)

2. MVRV sanity-check:

• Realised cap vs market cap ratio (MVRV) has historically flagged overheated and underheated zones. We target a neutral-to-slightly-elevated MVRV consistent with mid-cycle advances. DATA NEEDED: latest MVRV level; see MacroMicro tracker and Blockchain.com signals. (MacroMicro)

3. Liquidity/derivatives context:

• CME reported record crypto OI in 2025, increasing hedge capacity for allocators and supporting higher sustainable positioning. (cmegroup.com)

Valuation conclusion: While Bitcoin lacks cash flows, price discovery is increasingly anchored by transparent supply mechanics and institutional flow rails. Our €120,000 12-month target triangulates an NVT anchor with ETF supply absorption and derivative market depth.

7. Key Risks

1. Regulatory implementation and supervision risk in EU and US
   • MiCA’s ongoing implementation has active guidance in 2025; any tightening, delays, or cross-border friction could reduce on-ramps. ESMA has warned against customer-misleading practices. (ESMA)
   • US policy and SEC posture can alter ETF distribution or custody frameworks. DATA NEEDED: latest US regulatory updates.
2. Liquidity and flow dependence
   • A reversal of ETF net inflows or concentration risk in the largest ETF vehicles could pressure price. IBIT’s outsized share is a single-name concentration to watch. (bitmarkets.com)
3. Mining economics and security budget
   • With fees low relative to block subsidy, extended price weakness could stress miner cash flows, affecting hashrate. Current daily fees were ~$305k on 29 Oct 2025, and avg fee per tx ~$0.78. (YCharts)
4. Macro correlation and volatility
   • Shifts in USD, global liquidity, or risk appetite can dominate crypto beta in the short run; EURUSD volatility also affects EUR-translated returns. Reference ECB FX notes and current market coverage. (European Central Bank)
5. Energy and ESG scrutiny
   • Bitcoin’s energy use remains a reputational and policy risk. Cambridge CBECI provides the benchmark methodology and live estimates. DATA NEEDED: current annualised TWh at time of trade. (ccaf.io)
6. Technology and competitive platforms
   • Alternative L1s and L2s continue to improve user experience and costs; fee differentials may divert activity toward PoS ecosystems. ETH fee and address activity provide a comparison point. (tokenterminal.com)

8. Appendix

8.1 Expanded metrics and calculations

Issuance math:

• Block reward 3.125 BTC since 20 Apr 2024. Blocks/day ≈ 144. Annual issuance ≈ 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC. altii calc. (Investopedia)
• Issuance as percent of supply: 164,250 / 19,940,000 ≈ 0.82 percent. altii calc. (YCharts)

Hashrate and difficulty snapshots:

• Hashrate ~1.20B TH/s (1.20 ZH/s) on 2 Nov 2025. Difficulty ~156 T as of 1–2 Nov 2025. Sourced from YCharts with Blockchain.com origin. (YCharts)

On-chain activity:

• Transactions/day ~408k on 2 Nov 2025. Average fee ~$0.78 per tx and daily fees ~$305k on 29 Oct 2025. (YCharts)

Market structure and flows:

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs: dashboards and media coverage show multi-billion weekly swings and total holdings around 1.3M+ BTC, with IBIT highlighted as the largest. Use SoSoValue and The Block trackers for daily updates. (Trading News)

MiCA timeline extracts:

• ART/EMT provisions applicable 30 Jun 2024. Broader CASP regime effective 30 Dec 2024. 2025 guidelines on competence and transfer services published by ESMA and the EBA issued supervisory statements. (eba.europa.eu)

8.2 Data gaps and recommended sources

• Entity-adjusted transfer volume (EUR) to compute NVT precisely. Recommended: Coin Metrics Community Network Data Pro or Glassnode Studio. DATA NEEDED.
• Latest MVRV and realised cap. Recommended: MacroMicro MVRV Z-score, Blockchain.com “Market Value to Realised Value.” DATA NEEDED. (MacroMicro)
• Lightning Network capacity for L2 throughput context. Recommended: mempool.space Lightning explorer or 1ML. DATA NEEDED. (The Block)
• ETH and SOL EUR market caps at the same timestamp to complete peer table. Recommended: CoinGecko asset pages in EUR. DATA NEEDED. (CoinGecko)

8.3 Boilerplate disclosures

This report contains market data from third-party sources believed to be reliable, including CoinMarketCap for BTC EUR price and ATH, YCharts for hashrate, fees and transactions, SoSoValue and The Block for ETF flows and holdings, and ESMA/EBA/BaFin/AMF for MiCA regulatory references. Citations include publication dates or the date the data was observed where available. The 12-month price target is an altii estimate based on methods described; it is not a guarantee of future performance. Calculations are shown where possible; where DATA NEEDED is indicated, the metric should be refreshed from the recommended source before use.

Compliance and risk notice:
This is an informational research report generated by AI and may contain errors, omissions, or outdated information. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or crypto asset. Crypto assets are highly volatile and can result in total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consider your objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before any investment decision. Altii and its affiliates do not provide personalized investment advice and assume no responsibility for any investment decisions made based on this report.

Sources list (selected)

• BTC EUR price and ATH: CoinMarketCap BTC-EUR page and Yahoo Finance BTC-EUR quote, accessed 3 Nov 2025. (Yahoo Finance)
• Circulating supply, hashrate, fees, tx/day: YCharts indicators referencing Blockchain.com data, latest dates shown on each page. (YCharts)
• ETF holdings and flows: SoSoValue US BTC spot ETF dashboard; The Block coverage of IBIT holdings. (Trading News)
• Derivatives liquidity: CME press release and newsletters, Oct 2025. (cmegroup.com)
• MiCA: ESMA, EBA, BaFin, AMF pages and documents, 2024–2025. (ESMA)
• Energy methodology: Cambridge CBECI site and methodology. (ccaf.io)
• Peer datapoints: CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko live EUR pages for ETH and SOL. (CoinMarketCap)