altii-BTC-Report: Initiation of Coverage — Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR)

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

Instrument: Bitcoin priced in euro (BTC_EUR)
Date: 4 Nov 2025 (Europe/Berlin)

• Current price: €91,030 per BTC. Source: CoinGecko BTC/EUR page, accessed 4 Nov 2025. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month target price: €113,000
  • Implied upside: 24.1 percent vs €91,030 [calc: (113,000 − 91,030) ÷ 91,030].
• Investment rating: Buy
• Market capitalization: €1.81 trillion. Source: CoinGecko, 4 Nov 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Circulating supply: 19.94 million BTC. Source: CoinGecko uses Blockchain.info total supply feed, 4 Nov 2025. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month total return (BTC in EUR): +51.8 percent. Source: CoinGecko 1Y metric, 4 Nov 2025. (CoinGecko)

“Factor profile” style radar — analyst percentiles vs large liquid stores of value and L1s (BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold) using inputs cited below. Methodology at end of Valuation section.

12-month price chart (BTC, reference):

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 104947.0 USD currently with a change of -2495.00 USD (-0.02%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 108242.0 USD and the intraday low is 104203.0 USD.

Note: The chart widget reflects BTC in USD. All report valuation and targets are stated in EUR. Spot BTC in EUR and 1Y return are cited from CoinGecko as of 4 Nov 2025. (CoinGecko)

2. Investment Thesis — one-page tear sheet

Positioning line: Digital scarcity core asset with accelerating adoption via regulated ETFs in the US and Europe. Initiate at Buy with €113,000 12-month target.

Why now — 3 bullets

1. ETF demand flywheel
   US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a major conduit for traditional capital, with record weekly crypto ETP inflows of $5.95 billion in the week ending 4 Oct 2025 and recurring net flows through late October. This is expanding the baseline ownership of BTC in traditional portfolios. Sources: CoinShares weekly flows 6 Oct, 27 Oct, and research blog updates 28 Oct to 4 Nov 2025. (coinshares.com)
2. Supply schedule reset
   The April 20, 2024 halving reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC per block. At a long-run target of about 144 blocks per day, that implies new annual issuance of roughly 164,250 BTC, or about 0.8 percent net supply growth on a ~19.94 million base. This programmatic scarcity is now fully in effect. Sources: halving mechanics and block target. (The Guardian)
3. Macro diversification alongside gold
   Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge is increasingly codified by ETF channels, while gold itself trades near cycle highs in USD and EUR. Crypto ETP flows and price behavior in October point to persistent investor use as a diversifier. Sources: Reuters gold coverage 3 to 4 Nov 2025, CoinShares flows. (Reuters)

3. Investment Positives

1. Structural demand via ETFs
   • Global crypto ETPs saw record 1-week inflows of $5.95 billion in early October 2025; Bitcoin captured $3.55 billion of that. US led with $5.0 billion in that week. Source: CoinShares 6 Oct 2025 note and Reuters summary. (coinshares.com)
   • Subsequent weeks show flows normalization rather than unwind, with $921 million net inflows the week ending 27 Oct and more granular weekly commentary through early November. Source: CoinShares 27 Oct 2025 and research blog. (coinshares.com)
   • Mechanism: steady allocations from wealth accounts into ETPs absorb spot supply without requiring crypto-native infrastructure, improving liquidity depth and dampening cyclicality over time.
2. Programmatic supply decline
   • Fourth halving on 20 Apr 2024 cut the block subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Targeted about 144 blocks per day gives ~450 BTC per day and ~164,250 BTC per year. On ~19.94 million circulating, implied net issuance ~0.8 percent per year. Sources: Guardian explainer on halving timing and reward, blocks per day context. (The Guardian)
   • Implication: every 1 percent of incremental long-term demand can mechanically tighten float, especially now that ETF channels can warehouse coins for passive ownership.
3. Robust on-chain settlement at low fee levels
   • Transactions per day recently around 408k to 448k on YCharts in late Oct to early Nov, consistent with BitInfoCharts live stats. (YCharts)
   • Average fee per transaction near $0.78 as of 29 Oct 2025, well below congestion peaks and supportive of routine settlement. (YCharts)
   • Total fees per day around $305k on 29 Oct 2025, implying annualized run-rate near $111 million if conditions persist. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
4. Policy normalization in Europe under MiCA
   • MiCA provisions for crypto-asset services applied from 30 Dec 2024; stablecoin titles from 30 Jun 2024. ESMA and EC have been rolling out level 2 and Q&A materials through 2025. This reduces regulatory unknowns for EU wealth platforms offering BTC exposures. (Finance)
5. Relative positioning vs alternatives
   • Gold’s strong 2025 rally has not precluded concurrent crypto ETP inflows, suggesting complementary rather than purely substitutive demand. Sources: Reuters gold updates and CoinShares flows. (Reuters)

4. Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Gold (XAU). EUR figures where applicable.

Sources: BTC price, market cap, 1Y return and supply from CoinGecko 4 Nov 2025; SOL and ETH EUR quotes from CoinGecko; Gold in EUR reference from bullionbypost and Investing.com. BTC tx and fee metrics from YCharts and BitInfoCharts. (CoinGecko)

Notes

1. ETH and SOL EUR-market cap and 1Y EUR returns should be refreshed at time of use. Labeled DATA NEEDED above with suggested sources.
2. Fees for ETH and SOL are available via Token Terminal but often quoted in USD and may treat protocol revenue differently from supply-side miner or validator revenue. Verify definitions before comparing. (tokenterminal.com)

5. Estimates and Operating Assumptions

We model network activity and demand-side flows as key drivers for 12-month price formation. For a bearer asset without cash flows, we publish operating KPIs for transparency rather than classical revenue and margin items.

Starting point inputs (all cited):

• Price: €91,030. (CoinGecko)
• Circulating supply: 19.94 million BTC. (CoinGecko)
• New supply post-halving: ~164,250 BTC per year [calc: 3.125 BTC × 144 × 365]. Halving timing and 144 blocks per day context. (The Guardian)
• On-chain transactions per day: ~408k to 448k recent prints. (YCharts)
• Average fee per tx: ~$0.78 (29 Oct 2025). (YCharts)
• Total fees per day: ~$305k (29 Oct 2025). (YCharts)
• ETF flows context: see CoinShares weekly flow series across Oct 2025. (coinshares.com)

12-month driver model — Base, Bull, Bear

We translate flows, issuance, and activity into directional price scenarios. This is not a discounted cash flow. It is an expected value framework anchored by supply absorption from ETFs, crypto-native demand, and velocity.

Assumption ranges

• ETF net acquisition of BTC over next 12 months:
  • Base: +175k BTC net absorbed
  • Bull: +300k BTC net absorbed
  • Bear: +50k BTC net absorbed
    Justification: extrapolates weekly CoinShares ETP flows plus US ETF dominance and allows for occasional outflow weeks noted mid-October. (coinshares.com)
• Crypto-native net accumulation (ex-ETF) from exchanges and self custody:
  • Base: +75k BTC
  • Bull: +150k BTC
  • Bear: 0
    Rationale: assumes modest household accumulation in Europe and APAC alongside US wealth adoption. Analyst estimate.
• Net issuance available to free float
  Annual gross new supply ~164k BTC from mining. Miner selling assumed at 85 percent of issuance in base, 100 percent bear, 70 percent bull given fee environment and balance sheet dynamics. Analyst estimate grounded in issuance math. (The Guardian)
• Net float change over 12 months
  • Base: ETF +175k, native +75k = 250k demand vs miner supply to market ~140k (85 percent of 164k). Net −110k BTC in liquid float.
  • Bull: ETF +300k, native +150k = 450k vs supply ~115k (70 percent sell-through). Net −335k BTC in float.
  • Bear: ETF +50k, native 0 = 50k vs supply ~164k (100 percent). Net +114k BTC added to float.

Price mapping method

We anchor to an elasticity heuristic where percentage price change scales with net float absorption relative to a one-year turnover proxy. Turnover proxy uses 12-month on-chain adjusted volume and exchange volumes as a share of free float. Given opacity, we apply a conservative mapping:

• Base: +24 percent price change from €91,030 to €112,000
• Bull: +54 percent to €140,000
• Bear: −18 percent to €75,000

These are analyst estimates informed by issuance and flow math plus historical sensitivity around prior halving cycles and large ETF flow episodes. Flow data citations above. (coinshares.com)

Expected value target

• Probability weights: Base 50 percent, Bull 30 percent, Bear 20 percent.
• EV target = 0.5 × 112,000 + 0.3 × 140,000 + 0.2 × 75,000 = €113,000. Analyst calculation.

Operating KPIs — 12-month point estimates

6. Valuation

Bitcoin has no cash flows. We triangulate valuation using three comparables frameworks.

A) Market cap to network fees run-rate (P/Fees)

• Latest fees per day ~ $305k on 29 Oct 2025. Annualizing gives ~$111 million. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• BTC market cap in USD is approximately consistent with €1.81T converted at contemporaneous EURUSD; for pure ratio we can use USD market cap from CoinGecko, but we conservatively keep the ratio conceptual. Market cap to annualized fees implies a very high multiple, consistent with Bitcoin’s value being driven by scarcity and collateral demand rather than fee cash flows. Data points for fees and EUR market cap shown above. (YCharts)

Observation: P/Fees is not comparable to L1s that burn or capture fees differently. For example, Token Terminal ranks protocol revenue for other chains and often treats Bitcoin protocol revenue as zero since fees accrue to miners, not to a treasury. This makes P/Fees less decision useful as a relative metric across L1s. (tokenterminal.com)

B) NVT ratio context

• NVT compares network value to on-chain transaction value. It is used like a price to sales analog for settlement value. Concept and methodology referenced at MacroMicro and Woobull. We do not rely on a single point estimate given variability and data permissions. (MacroMicro)

C) Flow-of-funds scenario and expected value target

• We set the €113,000 12-month target via the EV framework in Section 5 based on supply absorption vs issuance and realistic ETF net flows. This maps the primary driver of today’s marginal price formation. Citations for flows and issuance above. (coinshares.com)

Cross-check notes

• Classical forward P/E is not applicable. We therefore cross-check with NVT context and market-cap to fees run-rate to ensure the target does not sit at extremes versus historical ranges that previously coincided with cycle tops. References for NVT methodology are provided; precise current reading would require a real-time source subscription. (MacroMicro)

“Factor profile” methodology disclosure

• Growth percentile (70): ranked BTC’s 12M return vs ETH, SOL, and gold in EUR plus trend in transactions per day versus 1Y history. Inputs cited. (CoinGecko)
• Returns percentile (65): based on 12M return and on-chain fee compression as a crude volatility proxy. (CoinGecko)
• Multiple percentile (55): qualitative judgment from P/Fees and NVT standing. (YCharts)
• Integrated (63): equal weight average. Analyst calculation.

7. Key Risks

Ranked by probability times impact.

1. ETF flow reversal or dilution across issuers
   • Evidence of weekly outflows appeared in mid to late October. If sustained, price support weakens as the net buyer disappears. Sources: CoinShares 20 Oct and 27 Oct 2025, plus research blog summary early November. (coinshares.com)
2. Macro shock and USD liquidity tightening
   • Lower probability of additional Fed cuts in December has pressured gold and risk. Similar dynamics can compress BTC multiples and flows even if scarcity holds. Sources: Reuters gold updates 3 to 4 Nov 2025. (Reuters)
3. Regulatory implementation risk in EU under MiCA
   • ESMA has been issuing guidance and warnings to CASPs around marketing and competence. Divergent national implementation could temporarily restrict distribution. Sources: ESMA pages and Reuters coverage of ESMA commentary. (ESMA)
4. Miner stress at low fee environment
   • Fees per day are modest, implying higher reliance on block subsidy. If BTC price weakens and fees stay low, some miners may liquidate inventory, adding supply. Latest fee levels: ~$305k per day 29 Oct 2025. (YCharts)
5. On-chain activity softness
   • Transactions per day can trend lower if L2 settlement defers base-layer demand without compensating fee burn effects as in other chains. Recent range 408k to 448k. (YCharts)
6. Model risk
   • Our flow-based EV approach is simplified and sensitive to assumptions about ETF net absorption and miner sell-through. Deviations can materially change the target.

8. Appendix

A) Calculations and quick references

• Implied upside: (Target − Spot) ÷ Spot = (113,000 − 91,030.22) ÷ 91,030.22 = 24.13 percent. Analyst calculation.
• Issuance math: 3.125 BTC per block × 144 blocks per day × 365 ≈ 164,250 BTC per year. Halving timing and block target cited. (The Guardian)
• Fees annualization: $305,037 per day × 365 ≈ $111.3 million per year. Source for daily fees: YCharts 29 Oct 2025. (YCharts)

B) Data sources and suggested refresh points

• BTC EUR spot, market cap, 1Y return: CoinGecko BTC/EUR. Refresh intra-day if needed. (CoinGecko)
• ETH and SOL EUR metrics: CoinGecko ETH/EUR and SOL/EUR. Labeled DATA NEEDED in peer table. (CoinGecko)
• Gold in EUR: bullionbypost one-year page and Investing.com XAU/EUR series for table extraction if required. (bullionbypost.eu)
• On-chain activity: YCharts Bitcoin transactions per day and average transaction fee. (YCharts)
• Total fees per day: YCharts indicator. (YCharts)
• Regulatory: ESMA and EC MiCA implementation pages. (ESMA)
• ETF flows: CoinShares weekly series and research blog. (coinshares.com)

C) Expanded model tables

12-month EV scenario tree in EUR

Network KPI path — Base

ETF absorption cadence — Base

All scenario and quarterly numbers are analyst estimates constructed from the cited starting points and observed flow behavior. They are not forecasts of earnings or cash flows.

D) Boilerplate on methodology and comparability

• Why not P/E: Bitcoin is not an operating company. Investors price scarcity, liquidity, and collateral utility. Therefore, flow-of-funds and supply dynamics dominate.
• Why show P/Fees and NVT: These offer context, not a price anchor. NVT is conceptually similar to a price to sales ratio of on-chain settlement. Fees illustrate base-layer usage intensity. Methodology references included. (MacroMicro)

Disclosures and compliance language

This report is produced by an AI system named altii-BTC-Report based on publicly available information cited herein. It is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. You should not rely on this report for investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Crypto assets are volatile and can result in a loss of capital. Verify all data with original sources before acting. The authoring AI and its operators accept no liability for errors or omissions.

Citations
Spot and market data: CoinGecko BTC/EUR and stats, 4 Nov 2025. (CoinGecko)
Flows: CoinShares weekly notes 6 Oct, 20 Oct, 27 Oct, research blog updates. (coinshares.com)
Fees and on-chain activity: YCharts indicators and BitInfoCharts, late Oct to 3 Nov 2025. (YCharts)
Halving and issuance context: press explainer and blocks per day target references. (The Guardian)
Gold context: Reuters 3 to 4 Nov 2025 and bullionbypost one-year EUR chart. (Reuters)
EU regulation: ESMA and EC MiCA pages, July to Dec 2024 application notes. (Finance)