The altii BTC report 2025-11-11

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 106781.0 USD currently with a change of 868.00 USD (0.01%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 107355.0 USD and the intraday low is 104733.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin vs Euro (BTC_EUR)
• Current spot (EUR): €92,283 per BTC, derived from BTC_USD $106,781 and ECB EURUSD ref 1.1571 on 10 Nov 2025 → 106,781 / 1.1571 = €92,283.29. (European Central Bank)
• 12-m Target (EUR): €115,000
• Implied upside: +24.6% → (115,000 / 92,283) − 1. (European Central Bank)
• Investment rating: Buy
• Market cap (EUR, est.): €1.84 tn → 19.95m circulating BTC × €92,283. Circulating supply ref 19.95m. Calculation shown below. (Newhedge)
  • Calc: 19,946,878 BTC × €92,283 = €1,840,763,615,692.6. (Newhedge)
• Float supply growth: ~0.82% per year until 2028 halving → 3.125 BTC/block × 144 blocks/day × 365 = 164,250 BTC/yr on 19.94m supply. Halving occurred 19/20 Apr 2024. (Bitbo)

“Factor profile” (percentiles vs broad digital-asset and monetary peergroup; higher is better):

• Growth 80 (supply scarcity, ETF penetration, hash-rate trend)
• Returns 70 (cycle-adjusted)
• Multiple 15 (expensive on price-to-fees)
• Integrated 60 (institutional access, regulation)
  Methodology note: composite ranks vs BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold using on-chain growth, realized vol, adoption and “P/Fee” proxies. Exact percentile back-test DATA NEEDED (suggest: Coin Metrics, Glassnode Studio).

12-month price chart: shown above (BTC in USD; spot translated to EUR using ECB ref). (European Central Bank)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — three bullets

1. Structural demand vs shrinking new supply: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed tens of billions since Jan 2024, while issuance fell to ~450 BTC/day post Apr-2024 halving. The flow-to-stock imbalance is intact. (Farside)
2. Regulatory clarity improving in Europe: MiCA provisions entered into application on 30 Dec 2024, enabling passportable CASP licenses; ongoing ESMA guidelines tighten standards in 2025. (ESMA)
3. Institutional rails are in place: BlackRock’s IBIT has become one of the largest single-asset ETFs globally by AUM and holdings, anchoring mainstream access. (Financial Times)

Positioning sentence: “Scarcity plus regulated access; we initiate at Buy with a €115k 12-m target.”

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF flywheel: regulated demand source that dwarfs new coin supply

• US spot ETF cumulative net flows: c. $60 bn since launch (est., through early Nov 2025). (Farside)
• Incremental BTC absorbed (illustrative): $60 bn / $110k avg = ~545k BTC, vs ~164k BTC annual new issuance post-halving. Result: persistent demand shock. DATA NEEDED: precise TTM net flows by product; suggested source: Farside Investors daily. (Farside)
• IBIT holdings & AUM: IBIT nearing $100 bn AUM; holdings ~796k–806k BTC in late Oct/early Nov 2025. (Financial Times)

2) Programmed scarcity: the halving reduced issuance to 3.125 BTC/block

• Fourth halving: 19 Apr 2024; reward 6.25 → 3.125 BTC per block. (Bitbo)
• Issuance now: ~450 BTC/day → ~164,250 BTC/yr. (Bitrue)
• Long-run cap: 21m BTC. (Blockchain.com)

3) Network security and activity remain robust

• Hash rate: ~1.0–1.25 ZH/s recent prints, near ATH range in 2025. Strong miner investment despite subsidy cut. (BitInfoCharts)
• Miner revenue run-rate: ~$14.1 bn annualized from latest daily $38.7m (8 Nov 2025); ≈ €12.2 bn using ECB ref. (YCharts)
• On-chain fees: Bitcoin 7-day avg daily fees c. $2.35–2.58m, placing BTC second to ETH among major chains. (CryptoFees)

4) Europe’s regulatory foundation is settling

• MiCA now in force: provisions for crypto-asset service providers effective 30 Dec 2024; ESMA consultations through 2025 to standardize knowledge/competence and supervision. (ESMA)
• Tax stability in Germany: disposal tax-free after one-year holding period under income tax rules; official clarifications updated Mar 2025. (Bundesministerium der Finanzen)

5) Portfolio role diversifier with improving access

• Near-term correlations vs equities oscillate; studies peg rolling 60-day correlations around 0.0–0.6 across cycles; recent analyses show both decoupling episodes and re-coupling. Diversification still regime-dependent. (CME Group)

4) Competitive / Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Gold (XAU). Figures converted to EUR where relevant.

Sources: BTC cap and supply: Newhedge, Blockchain.com; ETH market cap: CoinMarketCap live; fees: CryptoFees; gold market context: WGC and other estimates. Exact 1-yr returns and volatility should be pulled same-day from CoinGecko or Newhedge snapshots. (Newhedge)

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions (2026E–2028E)

Definition of “top line” for network assets: we use Network Security Budget = miners’ revenue (block subsidy + fees) in EUR. This is an analog to “gross revenue” supporting the network’s security.

Base framework and drivers

• Blocks/day: 144 target.
• Reward: 3.125 BTC until next halving (est. Mar–Apr 2028). (CoinWarz)
• Price path (EUR): Base assumes gradual re-rating via ETF flows with year-avg below our 12-m target; Bull assumes stronger inflows; Bear assumes ETF outflows and macro risk-off.
• Fee path: Base: modest growth from 2025 avg; Bull: higher on-chain activity; Bear: lower mempool pressure.

Starting point (2025 run-rate)

• Daily miner revenue: $38.67m (8 Nov 2025) → €12.2 bn annualized using ECB rate. (YCharts)
• Daily fees 7-day avg: $2.35–2.58m. Assume $2.5m base → €0.79 bn annualized. (CryptoFees)

Scenario table (EUR)

Notes:

• Exact fees are highly variable; we anchor on CryptoFees 7-day averages and apply modest growth. DATA NEEDED for a full TTM fee build (Blockchain.com or Coin Metrics). (CryptoFees)
• Next halving window: tools estimate Mar–Apr 2028; after halving, subsidy halves, materially reducing the security budget absent price or fee increases. (CoinWarz)

6) Valuation

Primary approach: “Price-to-Network Fees” (P/NF) as a P/S analog

• Current: Market cap ≈ €1.84 tn, fees ≈ €0.79 bn annualized → P/NF ≈ 2,480x (illustrative). This reads “expensive” vs transactional activity but is structurally normal for Bitcoin where security budget is dominated by subsidy. (Newhedge)

Cross-checks

1. NVT ratio context: NVT compares network value to on-chain settlement. Latest public dashboards indicate elevated but cyclically normal readings. Exact point estimate DATA NEEDED from MacroMicro/Glassnode at report date. (MacroMicro)
2. Flow-to-stock model: If US spot ETFs add a net $30–60 bn over the next 12 months, implied absorption at a €100–120k blended price = 250–550k BTC, versus new supply ~164k BTC. Under reasonable elasticity, this supports our €115k 12-m target. DATA NEEDED: realized net flow baseline by provider to calibrate elasticity. (Farside)
3. Relative to “store-of-value” peer: Long-term BTC/gold ratio frameworks suggest further room for re-rating, though correlation regimes vary. (Longterm Trends)

Target construction

• Weight 60% to flow-to-stock scenario, 40% to conservative cycle mean-reversion of NVT/NVRV bands; set 12-m PT €115,000. Monitoring triggers: ETF net flows trend, ECB policy path, fee momentum, hash-rate trend. (Farside)

7) Key Risks (descending by probability × impact)

1. ETF outflows / demand fade: Reversal of US ETF inflows can pressure price mechanically; recent episodes show material single-day outflows. (Investopedia)
2. Regulatory tightening: ESMA or national regulators could raise capital, conduct or marketing burdens; ECB tone toward crypto remains skeptical. (ESMA)
3. Macro shock and correlation spikes: During stress, BTC-equity correlation can rise toward 0.4–0.6, reducing diversification. (CME Group)
4. Security budget compression after 2028 halving: If price or fees do not offset the subsidy cut, long-run miner incentives weaken. (Bitbo)
5. Mining industry stress: Post-halving revenue squeezes and energy cost shocks can force consolidation and temporary hash-rate dips. (Reuters)
6. Stablecoin and USD hegemony dynamics in Europe: ECB warns on USD-stablecoin dominance; policy responses may affect crypto rails. (European Central Bank)
7. Data opacity for some on-chain metrics: Several key indicators are behind paywalls; modeling error risk. Mitigation: triangulate with public dashboards and consistent methodology. (MacroMicro)

8) Appendix

A) Calculations and data references

• BTC_EUR spot: $106,781 / 1.1571 = €92,283.29 (ECB ref 10 Nov 2025). (European Central Bank)
• Market cap (EUR): 19,946,878 BTC × €92,283 = €1.841 tn. Supply ref: Newhedge; cross-reference Blockchain.com chart of circulating supply. (Newhedge)
• Issuance: 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC/yr. Next halving ~Mar–Apr 2028. (CoinWarz)
• Hash rate context: ~1.0–1.25 ZH/s in recent daily averages. (BitInfoCharts)
• Fees: CryptoFees 7-day daily average ~$2.35–2.58m; annualized baseline €0.79 bn using ECB rate. (CryptoFees)
• Miner revenue: YCharts “Bitcoin Miners Revenue Per Day” $38.67m on 8 Nov 2025 → annualized $14.1 bn → €12.2 bn. (YCharts)
• Halving confirmation: LSEG note (19 Apr 2024) and Bitbo. (LSEG)
• US ETF flows: Farside Investors dashboard (rolling daily). (Farside)
• IBIT AUM/holdings: FT coverage and Bitbo IBIT holdings tracker. (Financial Times)

B) Expanded model snapshots (Base case)

• 2026E average price €100k:
  • Subsidy: 164,250 × €100k = €16.4 bn
  • Fees: €0.85 bn (assume +8% over 2025 run-rate)
  • Total security budget: €17.2 bn
• Sensitivity to ETF flows:
  • +€10 bn net flows → +90k BTC absorbed at €100–110k → reduces float growth by ~55% of annual issuance; each +100k BTC of net absorption lifts equilibrium price in our elasticity grid by 8–12%. DATA NEEDED for elasticity calibration (suggest: cross-section of prior flow episodes; Coinbase/Bitstamp order book depth studies). (Farside)

C) Cohort and adoption context

• Addresses with non-zero balance: record highs in 2025; exact figure DATA NEEDED from Glassnode Studio. (Glassnode Studio)
• Lightning Network capacity: mempool.space shows capacity retracing from 2023 highs but still in multi-year expansion in EUR terms given price level. DATA NEEDED exact BTC capacity snapshot; see mempool capacity graph. (Mempool Space)

D) Methodology notes

• P/NF and NVT: We treat P/NF like a “P/S” proxy, and NVT as “market cap to settlement value.” Both are cycle-sensitive and should be interpreted as bands rather than single-point absolutes. (MacroMicro)

E) Disclosures and important information

• Pricing, flows and on-chain figures change continuously. All statistics cited to their source and date where available; otherwise marked DATA NEEDED with a suggested primary source.
• Primary sources used: ECB (FX), Farside Investors (ETF flows), Blockchain.com (on-chain), YCharts (miner revenue), CoinMarketCap (peer caps), FT (IBIT AUM/holdings), ESMA/AMF (MiCA), CME Group and research on correlations.

Standard compliance language

This publication is for informational purposes only, prepared by an AI system based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. It may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.