Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) – Initiation of Coverage

Rating: Buy
Analyst: altii-BTC-Report
Date: 12 Nov 2025 (Europe/Berlin)

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

Instrument: Bitcoin priced in euro (BTC_EUR)
Current spot price: €89,282 per BTC, 24h change −2.3% at ~06:45 CET. Circulating supply ~19.7m BTC. Reported EUR market cap approximately €1.7–1.8 trillion. Source page also shows 1y change ~+17%. (CoinGecko BTC in EUR page, accessed 12 Nov 2025).

Cross-check in USD: $103,336 per BTC at time of writing (to enable chart widget below). (Finance feed, 12 Nov 2025).

12-month price chart:

Target price (12M): €120,000
Implied upside: +34.4% vs €89,282 spot. Calculation: (120,000 − 89,282) / 89,282.

Investment rating: Buy
Rationale in one line: Structural net demand from spot ETFs plus post-halving supply compression outweighs cyclical risks in our base case.

Liquidity & reference rates used in forecasts: ECB EURUSD reference 1 EUR = 1.1575 USD on 11 Nov 2025. We use 1 USD = 0.8639 EUR for conversions.

Quick factor profile (percentile vs peer set BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold):

• Growth: 12M EUR price change percentile 55. BTC +17% vs peers. (CoinGecko pages; BullionByPost 1y EUR gold).
• Returns: Fee yield percentile 10. BTC fee yield is low by design. Based on trailing daily fees annualized. (CryptoFees; Token Terminal ranking pages).
• Multiple: Price to fees percentile 10. BTC trades on a higher market cap to protocol fees than smart-contract chains. (Token Terminal pages).
• Integrated: Average of above ≈ 25.

Notes:

1. Percentiles are ranked across BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold on each metric, currency consistent where relevant.
2. Fees are network fees paid by users, not miner subsidy.

2) Investment Thesis – One-page tear-sheet

Why now (3 bullets):

• ETF demand is a structural buyer. US spot Bitcoin ETFs show very large cumulative inflows since Jan 2024, creating persistent net demand even through corrections. Our base-case assumes flows continue albeit slower, still exceeding new issuance post-halving. (Farside flow dashboard; CoinDesk citing Farside).
• Post-halving supply compression. Block subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block in April 2024. That implies ~450 BTC/day or ~164,250 BTC/year new supply before fees, a sharp downshift that historically coincides with improved 12-18 month market breadth. (LSEG halving explainer; Investopedia halving primer).
• Regulatory clarity improving in Europe. MiCA transitional regime is live, with ESMA’s interim register and CASP transitional measures running through 2026. This reduces existential regulatory tail risk for euro investors and helps distribution of compliant products. (ESMA MiCA page, updated 10 Nov 2025).

Positioning line: “Scarcity meets distribution” – initiate at Buy with €120k 12-month target.

3) Investment Positives

1) Net demand from ETFs exceeds new supply in base case

• New supply math: Post-halving block reward 3.125 BTC. At ~144 blocks/day that is ~450 BTC/day or ~164,250 BTC/year. This is mechanical. (Investopedia halving; LSEG note).
• ETFs as buyer: US spot BTC ETFs saw sizable cumulative net inflows since launch. Recent daily data show swings, but the structural stock of assets remains large. (Farside dashboard; CoinDesk flow recap). If monthly net inflows average $2.5b in 2026 vs ~$5b in 2024-25, that is €2.16b/month at ECB FX, or ~€26b/year, materially above new issuance value €14–16b at current price levels. Calculation: 164,250 BTC x €89,282 ≈ €14.7b issuance value. (CoinGecko EUR price; ECB FX).
• Implication: When steady buyers absorb more than 100% of new coins, marginal sellers must be coaxed with higher prices. We see this as the core medium-term driver.

2) Healthy on-chain activity baseline supports fee floor

• Transactions per day near ~450k–480k in recent prints. Multiple sources corroborate the level. (YCharts; BitInfoCharts; Blockchain.com charts directory).
• Daily fees 7-day avg around $2.35–2.58m in recent weeks, per CryptoFees, implying a baseline annualized fee run-rate of ~€0.75–0.85b. (CryptoFees 7-day series; ECB FX).
• Miner revenue remains robust as a network health proxy. Example point: $38.7m daily revenue on 8 Nov 2025 per YCharts, annualized to ~€12b at current FX. (YCharts miners revenue series referenced via altii summary).
• Takeaway: Fee floor and miner revenue signal consistent blockspace demand and strong security budget.

3) Security continues to strengthen

• Hashrate has shifted into the zettahash era in 2025. Recent 7-day SMA estimates around 1.05–1.19 ZH/s depending on source and day. (Hashrate Index weekly; YCharts hash rate; BitInfoCharts live page). A higher hashrate increases attack costs and security.

4) Macro diversification case remains intact

• Gold’s 2025 surge shows portfolios are seeking scarce assets. Gold EUR price per ounce is currently ~€3,550–3,575 and up sharply over 12 months. (Gold Avenue live EUR; BullionByPost 1-year EUR chart).
• Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has trended lower at times in 2025, per industry research, improving its role as a portfolio diversifier. (Kaiko research summary).

5) EU regulatory path lowers operational friction

• ESMA’s interim MiCA register and clear transitional timeline, including a grandfathering window to July 2026 for CASPs, support a harmonized on-ramp. (ESMA MiCA).

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Gold (as store of value benchmark).

Snapshot table – all figures approximate and as of 12 Nov 2025 unless stated

Sources and notes:

• BTC EUR price and market cap page. (CoinGecko BTC EUR).
• ETH EUR price and CoinGecko ETH page for market cap. (CoinGecko ETH EUR and ETH page).
• SOL EUR price and CoinMarketCap page for market cap cross-check. (CoinGecko SOL EUR; CMC SOL).
• Gold EUR price. (Gold Avenue; BullionByPost 1-year EUR).
• Fees TTM: Token Terminal pages show relative magnitudes for BTC, ETH, SOL, used for ratio illustration. Currency translation via ECB. Exact point estimates vary daily.
• 30D volatility ranges: aggregated from industry trackers and recent research digests. Latest backbone: The Block’s BTC 30D vol series; Dropstab/Bloomberg implieds snapshot for context. Gold vol is indicative. For trading use, pull exact 30D realized from The Block or Kaiko. DATA NEEDED for a synchronized EUR-based realized vol panel.
• On-chain activity: YCharts BTC tx/day ~~482k latest prints; ETH ~1.58m.

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Framework: For a non-cashflow network, we model network top-line as protocol fees and treat issuance as dilution cost to holders, not revenue. We forecast 3 years out in EUR based on activity, fee rate, and blockspace dynamics.

Key drivers and baselines

• Active usage proxy: Confirmed BTC transactions per day ~450–480k baseline, cyclically variable. (YCharts; BitInfoCharts).
• Average fee level: 7-day average BTC fees $2.35–2.58m/day recently. Annualized base $0.86–0.94b. Converted at ECB FX gives €0.74–0.81b. We set €0.78b FY25E baseline. (CryptoFees; ECB).
• Miner revenue (includes subsidy) for security budget context: recent daily ~$39m run-rate. Annualized ~$14.2b or ~€12.3b at ECB FX. We do not forecast miner revenue directly but use it to reason about security. (YCharts via prior digest).
• Issuance post-halving: 3.125 BTC/block, ~450 BTC/day, ~164,250 BTC/year. (Investopedia; LSEG).

Fee model – scenarios (EUR)

Calculation example 2026E: Starting €0.78b FY25E baseline x 1.14 = €0.89b. Rounding to 2 decimals.

ETF flow overlay: Base-case ETF net inflows €26b/year vs issuance worth ~€14.7b/year at €89k spot. Net absorption ratio ~1.8x supports modest fee growth through higher settlement demand in bull phases. (Farside; CoinGecko EUR; ECB FX).

KPI deck we will monitor:

• Tx/day, unique addresses, payments/day. (Blockchain.com charts).
• Fees/day, fee per tx. (CryptoFees; BitInfoCharts; YCharts).
• Hashrate and difficulty. (YCharts; Hashrate Index).

6) Valuation

Method 1 – “Price to Network Fees” multiple

• Intuition: Analogous to price to sales for protocols where user fees reflect demand for blockspace.
• BTC now: Market cap roughly €1.7–1.8T vs trailing fees ~€0.78–0.85b EUR. Implied P/Fees ~ 2,000x–2,300x depending on exact window. (CoinGecko BTC EUR; CryptoFees; ECB conversions).
• Peers: ETH P/Fees ~ 100x class. SOL ~60x–80x class. These are order-of-magnitude signals only. (Token Terminal snapshots). Currency choice cancels in ratio but we cross-checked with EUR.
• Interpretation: BTC screens optically expensive on fee multiple because it is optimized for settlement finality and scarcity rather than high fee throughput. We therefore use this as a sanity check, not a primary anchor for BTC’s target.

Method 2 – Flow vs issuance equilibrium + cycle normalization (Primary)

• Supply: ~164,250 BTC/year. Issuance value ≈ €14.7b at spot. (Investopedia; CoinGecko EUR).
• Demand: Assume €26b net ETF inflows next 12 months in our base case, down from 2024–25 pace. That is ~1.8x issuance value. (Farside; ECB FX).
• Price impact heuristic: When structural net demand persistently exceeds new supply, equilibrium price drifts upward until marginal holders sell. We translate this into a +20–40% price band for the next 12 months under unchanged macro and volatility.
• 12-month target: mid-point of the band gives €120,000. Implied upside +34.4%. We stress this is flow-anchored, not a cashflow DCF.

Cross-checks

• Gold adjacency: Above-ground stock at end-2024 216,265 tonnes, with bars and coins (including ETFs) ~48,634t. At €3,557/oz, private investment gold is ~€5.5–5.6T. BTC’s market cap ~€1.7–1.8T is ~30–33% of that. Our €120k target implies ~€2.3–2.4T, or ~40–43% of private investment gold at today’s gold price. Reasonable within a 12-month horizon if ETF flows persist. (World Gold Council above-ground stock; BullionByPost EUR gold; Gold Avenue).
• Cycle lens: Post-halving year has historically skewed positive. We avoid over-fitting past cycles but treat the compression of new supply as supportive. (LSEG halving explainer).

Sensitivity to ETF flows (12M):

Assumes linear response for illustration only. Flows are volatile. Sources for current flow context: Farside dashboard, CoinDesk recap.

Additional framing – energy and security

• Hashrate: 7-day SMA around ~1.05–1.19 ZH/s. (Hashrate Index; BitInfoCharts; YCharts).
• Electricity: Cambridge CBECI is the benchmark reference for estimating demand. External summaries place 2025 annualized consumption roughly ~138–175 TWh, methodology varies. We cite CBECI and academic summaries only as context. Valuation is not premised on energy. (CBECI portal; Cambridge 2025 report reference; CIGI/CCAF methodology).

7) Key Risks

1) ETF flow reversal

• Risk that US spot ETF complex turns net negative for an extended period due to macro or regulatory shocks. This would remove the structural buyer. Recent streaks of outflows have occurred. (CoinDesk citing Farside). Probability high, impact high.

2) Regulatory tightening or fragmentation

• Although MiCA provides clarity, national implementations and transitional regimes may diverge. Non-EU developments can spill over. ESMA flags a mixed regime until mid-2026. Probability medium, impact high.

3) Liquidity and volatility shocks

• Crypto markets remain prone to sharp deleveraging. BTC 30-day vol can reprice from 30–40% to 80% quickly. Probability medium, impact high. (The Block vol series).

4) Fee compression and blockspace substitution

• Scaling improvements and shifting activity to L2 or other chains can compress on-chain fees, affecting our fee-based top-line model. Probability medium, impact medium. (CryptoFees trend data).

5) Mining economics stress

• Post-halving miner margins depend on price, difficulty and energy. A prolonged price drawdown could stress hash participation despite ZH-era security. Probability medium, impact medium. (YCharts hash rate; Hashrate Index weekly).

6) ESG and energy narratives

• Policymaker focus on power demand could introduce new costs or operating constraints for miners. CBECI remains the reference for estimates. Probability medium, impact medium.

8) Appendix

A) Expanded models and calculations

Issuance arithmetic:

• Reward = 3.125 BTC per block since Apr 2024 halving.
• Blocks/day ≈ 144.
• Issuance/day = 3.125 × 144 = 450 BTC.
• Issuance/year ≈ 450 × 365 = 164,250 BTC. (Investopedia; LSEG).

Issuance value at spot:

• Spot €89,282.
• Annual issuance value ≈ 164,250 × €89,282 ≈ €14.7b. (CoinGecko EUR).

ETF flow translation:

• Assume $2.5b/month net flows next 12 months.
• Convert at ECB ref 1 EUR = 1.1575 USD → 1 USD = 0.8639 EUR.
• Annual net flows ≈ 12 × $2.5b × 0.8639 ≈ €25.9b. (ECB FX).

Fee model detail:

• Baseline daily fees mid-range $2.5m/day → annual $0.91b.
• Convert: $0.91b × 0.8639 = €0.79b.
• Growth drivers include inscriptions, exchange settlement, custody rebalancing, and L2 settlement bursts. (CryptoFees).

Peer fee yields:

• BTC: P/Fees high because fees are low by design.
• ETH: Token Terminal TTM fees ~$5.5b vs market cap roughly mid-$400b–$600b across 2025. Order-of-magnitude fee yield ~1%. (Token Terminal; CoinGecko ETH).
• SOL: TTM fees ~$1.4b, market cap mid-$80b–$90b in recent prints. Fee yield ~1.5%+. (Token Terminal; CMC SOL).

Gold comparator calculation:

• Bars and coins including ETFs ~48,634t at end-2024.
• 1 tonne = 32,150.7466 oz.
• Oz total ≈ 1.564b oz.
• Value at €3,557/oz ≈ €5.56T. (WGC; Gold Avenue).

B) Operating KPIs – latest reference prints

• BTC price in EUR: €89,282. 1y change ~+17%. (CoinGecko BTC EUR).
• ETH price in EUR: ~€2,978. (CoinGecko ETH EUR).
• SOL price in EUR: ~€134. (CoinGecko SOL EUR).
• Gold price per oz in EUR: ~€3,557. (Gold Avenue).
• BTC transactions/day: ~450–480k recent. (YCharts; BitInfoCharts).
• ETH transactions/day: ~1.58m recent. (YCharts).
• BTC average fee: daily level oscillates around $0.6–1.1 per tx recently. (YCharts; BitInfoCharts).
• BTC hashrate: around 1.05–1.19 ZH/s by 7-day SMA context. (Hashrate Index; BitInfoCharts; YCharts).

C) Regulatory backdrop – MiCA highlights for investors

• MiCA entered into force June 2023; transitional measures active.
• ESMA interim MiCA register updated 10 Nov 2025 lists white papers, CASPs, and non-compliant entities.
• Grandfathering allows pre-Dec 30, 2024 CASPs to operate until 1 July 2026 or until authorization outcome. (ESMA).

D) Data needs for future iterations

• Synchronized realized 30-day vol in EUR terms across BTC, ETH, SOL on the same date and time. Suggested sources: The Block, Kaiko. DATA NEEDED.
• Granular fee TTM panels across chains in EUR with exact window cut. Suggested sources: Token Terminal enterprise, Artemis. DATA NEEDED.
• Lightning Network KPIs with audited methodology. Suggested sources: 1ML, mempool.space. DATA NEEDED.

Disclosures, methodology, and important information

Method constraints: Bitcoin does not produce cashflows to equity holders. We use flow vs issuance and protocol-fee proxies to triangulate price potential, alongside scenario analysis. Ratios like P/Fees are informative relative metrics but are not classical valuation anchors for BTC given design choices that minimize on-chain fees per byte.

Sources and dates:

• BTC EUR price, market cap, 1y change: CoinGecko BTC in EUR, accessed 12 Nov 2025.
• BTC USD spot for chart: Finance feed, 12 Nov 2025.
• ETF flows: Farside Investors dashboard and CoinDesk article referencing Farside flows, accessed 7–12 Nov 2025.
• Halving details and issuance math: Investopedia explainer and LSEG note.
• ECB reference FX: 11 Nov 2025.
• On-chain activity and fees: CryptoFees.info; YCharts BTC transaction and fee series; BitInfoCharts.
• Hashrate: Hashrate Index weekly, YCharts, BitInfoCharts.
• Gold reference: Gold Avenue live EUR price and BullionByPost 1-year EUR chart.
• Gold above-ground stock: World Gold Council, 11 Feb 2025.
• Volatility references: The Block BTC 30D vol page; Dropstab note with implieds.
• Regulation: ESMA MiCA site, updated 10 Nov 2025.

Conflicts: None known. This report was generated by AI with human-curated sources.

Compliance language:
This research report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, digital asset, or financial instrument. The analysis herein is generated by AI and may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Digital assets are highly volatile and may not be suitable for all investors. Before making any investment decision, you should conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. The author and associated parties assume no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.