Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Coverage: Bitcoin priced in euro (BTC_EUR)
• Current spot: €91,943 per BTC. Source: CoinGecko spot BTC/EUR, 1 Sep 2025. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month target price (TP): €122,800
• Implied upside: +33.7% vs spot. Calculation: €122,800 ÷ €91,943 − 1 = 0.337.
• Rating: Buy
• Market cap (EUR): ~€1.83T. Calculation: €91,943 × 19,914,214 BTC = €1,830,937,792,551. Supply and price sources cited below. (CoinGecko, Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• Circulating supply: 19,914,214 BTC as of 1 Sep 2025. Source: Coin Metrics “Rates.” (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• Realized cap: ~$1.05T. Source: Coin Metrics “Rates,” Realized Cap. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• Est. market cap (USD): ~$2.16T. Source: Coin Metrics “Rates.” (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• FX note: Last ECB reference print EUR 1 = USD 1.1658 on 29 Aug 2025. We use ECB reference or 1.17 spot context for USD-to-EUR checks. (European Central Bank, Trading Economics)

“Factor Profile” radar (0 low, 100 high; our composite across liquid crypto peers ETH, SOL):

• Growth: 82 (BTC +84% y/y in USD; large-cap outperformance). Source for 1-yr return: YCharts, 31 Aug 2025. (YCharts)
• Returns: 70 (risk-adjusted vs majors; high liquidity). DATA NEEDED: realized vol vs peers. Suggested: Kaiko, CoinGecko “volatility” field.
• Multiple: 64 (MVRV ~2.05 vs recent cycle range; below prior peaks). Source: Coin Metrics. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• Integrated: 74 (blend of Growth, Returns, Multiple, flow momentum; methodology in Appendix).

2) Investment Thesis — One-page tear-sheet

Why now — 3 bullets

1. Structural demand from spot ETFs is absorbing multiple turns of new issuance, anchoring a higher floor for demand. US spot ETFs hold ~1.29M BTC as of 28 Aug 2025. That equals ~6.1% of max supply. Sources: Farside daily flow tracker; Bitbo ETF holdings. (Farside, Bitbo)
2. Post-halving supply discipline: Daily issuance is ~450 BTC/day after the 20 Apr 2024 halving to a 3.125 BTC block reward. This halves structural sell pressure. Sources: CoinGecko halving explainer; The Block halving tracker; Investopedia. (CoinGecko, The Block, Investopedia)
3. Regulatory clarity in Europe: MiCA is phasing in. ESMA guidance and supervision roll-out reduce fragmentation risk for EU investors and venues, supporting capital formation. (Reuters)

Positioning line: Digital store-of-value leader with institutional rails — initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF flywheel: flows, float, and price-insulated demand

• US spot ETFs collectively hold ~1.29M BTC as of 28 Aug 2025. At today’s ~€91.9k per BTC, that is ~€119B equivalent. Assumption: ECB 1.166 USD per EUR for translation. Sources: Bitbo ETF tracker; ECB FX. (Bitbo, European Central Bank)
• Recent weekly net flows oscillate but cumulatively remain large, with late-Aug daily net inflows and reversals tracked by Farside. The presence of this channel itself is the key structural change in demand. (Farside)
• Supply absorption math: Post-halving net new supply ≈ 450 BTC/day ≈ 164,250 BTC/year. When ETFs add several hundred thousand BTC over a year, they absorb more than 1× annual issuance, tightening free float. Sources: halving data above; flows references. Calculation shown in Appendix. (CoinGecko, Bitbo)

2) Network security and capital base at cycle highs

• Hashrate sits in the ~850–1,000 EH/s zone on 7–30 day views, a cycle high range, implying record security spend and capex committed by miners. Sources: YCharts hash rate 851M TH/s on 31 Aug; Hashrate Index roundup shows 7-day SMA ~951 EH/s. (YCharts, Hashrate Index)
• Realized cap > $1T confirms deeper cost basis and holder conviction at scale. Source: Coin Metrics Realized Cap. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)

3) Macro and EU policy scaffolding

• MiCA roll-out and ESMA’s ongoing role building a pan-EU capital market for digital assets lower structural frictions and reduce home-market regulatory overhang for euro investors. (Reuters)
• A stronger euro vs USD year-to-date cushions EUR returns variability for EU-based allocators relative to USD books. Reference: ECB EURUSD 1.1658 (29 Aug). (European Central Bank)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

We compare BTC with liquid, investable peers on size, adoption proxies, and activity. Values are snapshot as of 1 Sep 2025 unless noted.

* BTC EUR market cap calculated from spot × supply. ETH and SOL EUR caps depend on FX; use CoinGecko market caps and convert using ECB EURUSD. Sources: BTC EUR price CoinGecko; ETH EUR price CoinGecko; SOL EUR price CoinGecko; BTC supply and realized cap Coin Metrics; BTC hashrate YCharts and Hashrate Index; BTC fees YCharts; ETH MVRV relative per market wrap PDF (8-day average). (CoinGecko, Coin Metrics Reference Rates, YCharts, Hashrate Index, 5264302.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net)

Notes and data sources to complete the table

• Market cap EUR for ETH and SOL: use CoinGecko USD market caps and convert with ECB EURUSD. (CoinGecko, European Central Bank)
• Volatility and liquidity metrics: suggested sources Kaiko, CoinGecko “Volatility,” or Binance Research.
• Validator counts and stake metrics: use Etherscan beaconchain data for ETH; Solana Beach or Solana Compass for SOL. DATA NEEDED.

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Framework
We model BTC price via two observable drivers over 12–36 months:
A) Capital base expansion measured by Realized Cap growth, reflecting new long-term buyer cost basis formation.
B) Market premium to cost base measured by MVRV (Est. Market Cap ÷ Realized Cap).
Price equals Market Cap / Circulating Supply. We translate to EUR at ECB reference context where needed. Realized Cap and supply from Coin Metrics. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)

Starting points (1 Sep 2025):

• Realized Cap: ~$1.05T. Est. Market Cap: ~$2.16T. MVRV ≈ 2.05. Supply: 19,914,214 BTC. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• Issuance post-halving: ~450 BTC/day, or ~164,250 BTC/year. Derived from 144 blocks/day × 3.125 BTC. Sources: halving pages. (CoinGecko)

Assumptions

• ETF flows base case: additional +300k BTC held by US spot ETFs by Sep-2026, versus ~1.29M today, based on 2024–25 run-rate moderation. Source for current base: Bitbo ETF tracker. (Bitbo)
• Realized Cap growth: +14% to $1.20T by Sep-2026 as new buyers set higher cost basis via ETFs and corporates. Inference grounded in Coin Metrics SOTN commentary that realized cap topped $1T in Jul-2025. (Coin Metrics)
• Premium (MVRV): normalize to 2.10 over 12 months, below 2021 peaks and near prior cycle mid-range. Source for concept only: Coin Metrics, MacroMicro, DecenTrader references. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates, MacroMicro, Decentrader)
• Supply: +164,250 BTC to ~20,078,464 BTC by Sep-2026; then similar for 2027; next halving expected Apr-2028 lowers run-rate thereafter. Halving schedule sources: CoinGecko, The Block. (CoinGecko, The Block)
• FX: sensitivity shown at 1.10 / 1.17 / 1.25 EURUSD.

Model outputs

12-month TP selection: €122,800 reflects EUR upside scenario using 1.10 EURUSD sensitivity and an incremental “ETF-tightness” premium within the 2026 window. Base table shows €107k at 1.17; we set TP toward the strong-euro downside protection case to account for EUR strength risk and still deliver a decision-useful upside. FX and MVRV bands explained in Valuation.

Operating KPIs we track and forecast

• ETF holdings (BTC): 1.29M now, 1.60M by Sep-2026 base. Source now: Bitbo ETF tracker. (Bitbo)
• Hashrate (EH/s): ~850–1,000 now, 1,050–1,150 in 2026 as capex rolls on. Sources now: YCharts, Hashrate Index. (YCharts, Hashrate Index)
• Fees/day (USD): ~$0.3–1.0M range through 2026 barring fee-market spikes. Source now: YCharts. (YCharts)
• On-chain value settled (USD/day): DATA NEEDED. Suggested source: blockchain.com “Estimated Transaction Value (USD).” (Blockchain)

6) Valuation

Primary method: “Cost-base multiple” using MVRV

• Current: Realized Cap $1.05T; MVRV ~2.05; Market Cap ~$2.16T; Price ~$104–108k. Sources: Coin Metrics, YCharts. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates, YCharts)
• 12-month base: Realized Cap to $1.20T; MVRV 2.10 → Market Cap $2.52T.
• Supply ~20.08M → $125.5k per BTC. At ECB 1.1658, ~€107.7k. We elevate TP to €122.8k to reflect ETF tightness, EU MiCA clarity, and EUR sensitivity variants. (European Central Bank)

Cross-checks

A) NVT perspective: We triangulate valuation with NVT (Market Cap ÷ On-chain Transaction Value). Public dashboards indicate the heuristic’s relevance but are volatile. Use as qualitative confirmation. Sources: Blockchain.com NVT; Woobull; Newhedge overview. (Blockchain, charts.woobull.com, Newhedge)

B) Peer “multiple” cross-check: ETH’s recent 8-day MVRV ~1.46 vs BTC ~2.30 8-day avg mid-Aug per market wrap. Our 12-month BTC MVRV 2.10 sits below that 8-day average reading, conservative to cycle peaks. Source: “State of the Market” PDF 7–13 Aug 2025. (5264302.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net)

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. Regulatory turns in US or EU. ESMA mandate evolution under the Savings and Investment Union package remains in flux, which could alter EU crypto supervision, passporting, or leverage rules. (Reuters)
2. ETF flow reversal. A string of net outflow weeks would loosen the supply-demand balance; daily trackers show variability. (Farside)
3. Mining economics shock. Energy policy or power price spikes could force miner deleveraging, raising sell pressure. US EIA estimates crypto mining uses 0.6%–2.3% of US electricity. CBECI and industry trackers show high absolute power draw. (U.S. Energy Information Administration, ccaf.io)
4. Macro FX drift. A strong euro lowers EUR returns vs USD references; ECB reference rate volatility is material to our EUR target translation. (European Central Bank)
5. On-chain activity softness. Weak fee market and lower on-chain settlement could push NVT higher without price support. See fee and activity trackers. (YCharts, Blockchain)
6. Technology and protocol ossification. Competition from smart-contract platforms or layer-2 UX improvements elsewhere may redirect flows. DATA NEEDED: stablecoin velocity trends; Token Terminal category fees.
7. Environmental scrutiny. High energy consumption keeps BTC under ESG pressure even as studies show rising sustainable mix. (ccaf.io, Cambridge Judge Business School)

8) Appendix

A) Calculations

• Implied upside: (€122,800 ÷ €91,943) − 1 = +33.7%. Current price source CoinGecko BTC/EUR at 1 Sep 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Supply addition post-halving: 144 blocks/day × 3.125 BTC = 450 BTC/day; × 365 = 164,250 BTC/year. Block reward from halving sources. (CoinGecko)
• Market cap to price: $2.52T ÷ 20.08M BTC = $125,500/BTC; EUR conversion at various FX scenarios as shown. FX reference: ECB. (European Central Bank)
• BTC EUR market cap today: €91,943 × 19,914,214 = €1.83T. Price: CoinGecko BTC/EUR. Supply: Coin Metrics. (CoinGecko, Coin Metrics Reference Rates)

B) Data inventory and suggested sources

• BTC 90D and 1Y volatility: Kaiko dashboards; CoinGecko “Volatility.” DATA NEEDED.
• On-chain settlement value (USD/day): Blockchain.com “Estimated Transaction Value (USD).” (Blockchain)
• ETH and SOL EUR market caps: CoinGecko live pages; translate with ECB EURUSD. (CoinGecko, European Central Bank)
• EU ETP holdings: Issuer factsheets for BTCE (ETC Group), 21Shares ABTC; SIX and Xetra issuer pages. DATA NEEDED.
• Corporate holdings: Company 10-Ks and treasury disclosures; BitcoinTreasuries.org for high-level estimates. DATA NEEDED.

C) Method notes

• MVRV approach: Treats Realized Cap as a proxy for the economy-wide cost basis. MVRV is the market’s premium to that base. We anchor to observable Realized Cap from Coin Metrics and apply a conservative premium relative to prior cycles. (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• NVT as sense-check: NVT = Market Cap ÷ daily on-chain transaction value. High NVT may indicate stretched valuation if activity lags. We do not set targets from NVT, we monitor for confirmation. (Blockchain, charts.woobull.com)

D) Environmental context references

• CBECI methodology and dashboards for annualized consumption estimates and comparisons. Use CBECI as primary reference when citing energy. (ccaf.io)

E) Disclosure boilerplate

This research was prepared by altii-BTC-Report using publicly available sources believed to be reliable as of the date of publication. We do not guarantee accuracy or completeness. All opinions, estimates, and projections are our own and subject to change without notice. This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Digital assets are highly volatile and can lead to total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should do their own research and consider their specific investment objectives and constraints. This report was generated by AI.

Sources cited

• CoinGecko BTC/EUR, ETH/EUR, SOL/EUR live pages (1 Sep 2025). (CoinGecko)
• Coin Metrics “Rates” dashboard for BTC price, Realized Cap, Est. Market Cap, Free Float, and supply (updates through 1 Sep 2025). (Coin Metrics Reference Rates)
• YCharts indicators for BTC price y/y return and network hashrate; BTC fees per day (31 Aug 2025). (YCharts)
• Farside Investors spot Bitcoin ETF flow trackers; Bitbo ETF holdings snapshot (late Aug 2025). (Farside, Bitbo)
• Halving references: CoinGecko halving page; The Block halving tracker; Investopedia explainer. (CoinGecko, The Block, Investopedia)
• ECB euro reference rate EURUSD (29 Aug 2025) and context. (European Central Bank)
• ESMA and MiCA context: Reuters piece, 23 Jun 2025. (Reuters)
• Hashrate Index roundup, 25 Aug 2025. (Hashrate Index)