Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (spot): €94,294 per BTC. Source: CoinGecko BTC/EUR, observed 02 Sep 2025. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month target price (EUR): €115,000
• Implied upside: ~22.0 percent. Calculation: (115,000 − 94,294) ÷ 94,294 = 21.96 percent. Calculation timestamp 02 Sep 2025.
• Investment rating: Buy
• Circulating supply: ~19.915 million BTC. Source: CoinGecko references Blockchain.info, 02 Sep 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Issuance schedule: Block subsidy 3.125 BTC since the April 2024 halving. ~144 blocks/day target. Sources: The Block 19 Apr 2024; Bitbo explainer and charts; Investopedia difficulty note. (The Block, Bitbo Charts, Investopedia)
• New supply per day: ≈ 450 BTC/day (= 3.125 × 144). Annual ≈ 164,250 BTC. Derived from the above sources. (The Block, Bitbo Charts)
• Spot Bitcoin ETF AUM: ~$140.0 billion aggregated as of 01 Sep 2025. Source: Yahoo Finance, 01 Sep 2025. (Yahoo Finance)
• EUR/USD reference: 1.1715 USD per EUR (ECB reference rate, 01 Sep 2025). (European Central Bank)

Quick factor profile (percentiles vs large-cap crypto peers ETH and SOL)

Method notes: Percentiles are scaled 0 to 100 within a peer set of BTC, ETH, SOL using sourced 1-yr EUR returns, realized cap context, and 7-day avg network fees. See Competitive Analysis and Valuation for inputs. (CoinGecko, CoinDesk, cryptofees.info)

12-month price chart

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 110362.0 USD currently with a change of 2237.00 USD (0.02%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 110557.0 USD and the intraday low is 107539.0 USD.

2) Investment Thesis — one-page tear-sheet

Positioning line: Scarcity plus regulated access — we initiate Bitcoin (EUR) at Buy on structurally tightening supply and deepening institutional distribution.

Why now

1. Supply clamp post-halving collides with maturing demand. Block rewards halved to 3.125 BTC, reducing annual new supply to ~164k BTC. At spot €94k, issuance value is ~€15.5 billion/year, a small fraction of prospective ETF and corporate flows. Calculations and halving sources below. (The Block, Bitbo Charts)
2. ETF infrastructure at scale. US spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage ~$140B; even modest net inflows can overwhelm new supply for prolonged periods. (Yahoo Finance)
3. Macro and EU rulebook tailwinds. Softer USD periods historically support hard assets and risk. Europe’s MiCA framework is live for CASPs and stablecoins, lowering procedural hurdles for EU institutions to participate under a single passport. (Reuters, squirepattonboggs.com)

3) Investment Positives

1) Demand pipes are built — ETFs industrialize access

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs AUM ~$140B, a material new channel that did not exist pre-2024. Even €10–20B annual net inflows would exceed new issuance value (~€15.5B/yr) or match it, depending on trajectory, creating a persistent supply imbalance. Sources and issuance math below. (Yahoo Finance)
  • Issuance math: 3.125 BTC × 144 blocks/day = 450 BTC/day. 450 × 365 = 164,250 BTC/yr. Multiply by spot €94,294 = €15.49B/yr new supply value. Derived 02 Sep 2025. (The Block, Bitbo Charts, CoinGecko)

2) Realized cap rising signals conviction

• Realized capitalization climbed to a record ~$1.05T in Jul-Sep 2025 despite spot drawdown, consistent with coins repricing upward as they move. Analyst take: broadening long-term holder base improves cycle durability. Source 01 Sep 2025. (CoinDesk)

3) Regulatory clarity in Europe reduces friction

• MiCA fully applicable for stablecoins since 30 Jun 2024 and for crypto-asset service providers since 30 Dec 2024, with national transitions through 2026. ESMA published knowledge and competence guidelines in Jul 2025, clarifying staff requirements. Expect smoother onboarding for EU institutions. (squirepattonboggs.com, ESMA)

4) Scarcity thesis intact; effective float likely below headline supply

• Estimates suggest 11–18 percent of all BTC are permanently lost, tightening effective free float. Range 2.3–4.0 million BTC. Multiple recent overviews in 2025 support this magnitude. This amplifies the impact of incremental demand on price. (Ledger, The Digital Asset Infrastructure Company)

5) Miner cost floor is rising

• Estimated average production cost at ~$97,084 per BTC (31 Aug 2025). Converted using ECB ref rate implies ~€82,872. Cost floors do not set price but historically inform downside resilience. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank)

6) Healthy on-chain throughput and fee base

• 7-day average daily fees ~$2.58M recently, with prior spikes in 2025 on inscriptions and congestion. Points to a durable minimum fee economy as block subsidies shrink. (cryptofees.info)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL). Figures in EUR where available for direct comparison.

Sources and timing

• Prices, market caps, 1-yr returns in EUR: CoinGecko BTC/EUR, ETH/EUR, SOL/EUR, observed 02 Sep 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Fees 7-day and 24h snapshots: CryptoFees dashboard, observed early Sep 2025. For SOL 7-day average, DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: CryptoFees protocol page, DeFiLlama fees API. (cryptofees.info, defillama.com)
• Active addresses: BTC daily from BitInfoCharts snapshot 02 Sep 2025; ETH and SOL monthly actives from Token Terminal overview pages, accessed Sep 2025. (BitInfoCharts, tokenterminal.com)

Takeaways

• BTC leads 1-yr EUR performance within the large-cap set and dominates absolute market cap. (CoinGecko)
• ETH monetizes activity more efficiently on fees relative to market cap; SOL shows very high activity with comparatively modest chain fees. (cryptofees.info, defillama.com)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Forecast horizon: FY-2026 to FY-2028, 12-month target anchored on mid-CY-2026 spot. Metrics are directional and EUR-denominated unless stated.

Key drivers

• ETF net flows: Base case +$25B in USD over next 12 months, tapering to +$20B in FY-2027 and +$15B in FY-2028 as penetration normalizes. Rationale: current US spot AUM ~$140B with intermittent outflow weeks, yet continued adviser uptake and retirement platform onboarding. Sources for baseline context and recent weekly prints. (Yahoo Finance)
• Issuance: ~164,250 BTC/yr through the 2028 halving; issuance value flexes with price. (The Block, Bitbo Charts)
• Fees: We model an €0.8–1.2B annual fee run-rate equivalent in 2026–2028, derived from CryptoFees 7-day average annualized and allowing for cycle volatility. Baseline anchor: 7-day avg $2.58M/day. (cryptofees.info)
• Realized cap glide: From $1.05T base, we assume +15 percent in 12 months if coins continue to reprice to higher cost basis. (CoinDesk)
• EU rulebook: MiCA’s full CASP regime live since 30 Dec 2024 supports incremental institutional access in the EU bloc. (squirepattonboggs.com)

Operating KPIs (point estimates; mid-year averages)

• Active addresses (daily, BTC): 220–280k band FY-2026, steady to modestly up as L2 and ordinals cycles ebb and flow. Baseline ref 02 Sep 2025 ~231k. (BitInfoCharts)
• On-chain transactions per day: 500–650k in FY-2026 on average. Current ranges 560–650k depending on week. (Blockchain)
• Network fees per day (USD): Cycle mid-point $2.0–3.0M; annualized $730M–$1.1B. Baseline 7-day average ~$2.58M. (cryptofees.info)

Price model framework

We triangulate on a 12-month target using three lenses:

1. Flow vs issuance: If net ETF and corporate flows exceed issuance value, spot typically reprices until marginal sellers re-emerge.
   • Base example: €15.5B issuance value over 12 months vs assumed €21–€33B equivalent flows (converted from $25–$35B at ECB ref). Supply/demand imbalance supports higher clearing prices. (European Central Bank)
2. MVRV normalization: With realized cap at $1.05T, a moderate rise in market cap vs realized cap without extreme froth implies mid-cycle pricing rather than late cycle. We avoid top-of-cycle multiples. (CoinDesk)
3. Cost floor: Production cost near $97k (~€82.9k) likely underpins downside in benign macro. We do not price to cost, but it informs skew. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank)

Scenario summary (EUR, 12-month)

• Bull: €140,000 if net flows accelerate and fees stay elevated.
• Base: €115,000 on steady flows and neutral macro.
• Bear: €78,000 if ETFs see persistent outflows and real yields rise sharply.

6) Valuation

Primary method: Price-to-fees (P/F) using 7-day average daily fees, annualized. Network “fees” are a practical proxy for usage demand in crypto valuation. Caveat: fee design differs by chain and not all value accrues to holders.

• BTC P/F (EUR)
  • Inputs: 7-day avg daily fees $2.576M. Annualized $941M. ECB ref converts to ~€804M. Market cap €1,878.7B.
  • P/F ≈ 2,340x. Calculation: 1,878.7B ÷ 0.804B. (cryptofees.info, European Central Bank, CoinGecko)
• ETH P/F (EUR) cross-check
  • Inputs: 7-day avg daily fees $6.738M. Annualized $2.46B. Convert to ~€2.10B. Market cap €455.0B.
  • P/F ≈ 217x. (cryptofees.info, European Central Bank, CoinGecko)
• SOL P/F
  • Snapshot fees ~$1.28M/24h. Lacking consistent 7-day avg figure. DATA NEEDED for strict comparability. Suggested sources: CryptoFees protocol page or DeFiLlama fees timeseries. (defillama.com)

Interpretation

• BTC trades at a significant premium to activity-based metrics, consistent with its store-of-value role and ETF monetization. ETH trades at a much lower P/F due to fee-rich execution environment.
• For BTC, we apply premium multiples but keep the 12-month target conservative relative to prior cycle peaks to reflect ETF outflow risk periodicity.

Cross-checks

• Realized cap trend remains constructive. Realized cap ~$1.05T supports the view that cost bases are rising, reducing downside convexity unless macro shocks emerge. (CoinDesk)
• Production cost cross-check near €82.9k provides a reference floor under non-stress macro. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank)

7) Key Risks

1. Regulatory and compliance drift
   • While MiCA harmonizes EU rules, ESMA is tightening expectations for staff competence and surveillance. Implementation asymmetries across member states could slow adoption. (ESMA, Cinco Días)
2. ETF flow volatility
   • We have already seen weekly outflows in late Aug 2025 with net $126.7M withdrawn, reminding that flows can reverse. A protracted outflow cycle would weigh on price. (Yahoo Finance)
3. Security and crime-related shocks
   • $2.17B stolen YTD by mid-2025 from crypto services, driven by large single hacks, highlights systemic risk sentiment. Major incidents can tighten policy and hit prices. (Chainalysis)
4. Macro headwinds
   • Strong USD or rising real yields can compress risk appetite. As of 02 Sep 2025, the USD had softened on rate-cut hopes, yet reversals are plausible. (Reuters)
5. Miner profitability stress
   • Post-halving margin compression can trigger hash rate adjustments and forced selling. Average cost data indicate limited cushion vs spot in stress scenarios. (MacroMicro)
6. Lost coins estimation uncertainty
   • The estimated 11–18 percent lost supply may be overstated or behave unexpectedly if dormant coins move. Recent dormant-wallet activity episodes can jar sentiment. (Ledger, MarketWatch)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded calculations and model snippets

• Issuance value
  • 3.125 BTC/block × 144 blocks/day = 450 BTC/day.
  • × 365 = 164,250 BTC/year.
  • × €94,294 spot = €15.49B new supply value. Input sources and price timestamp 02 Sep 2025. (The Block, Bitbo Charts, CoinGecko)
• BTC P/F computation
  • Fees: 7-day avg $2.576M/day → × 365 = $941M/yr.
  • Convert at ECB ref 1.1715 USD per EUR → €804M.
  • Market cap €1,878.7B.
  • P/F ≈ 1,878.7 ÷ 0.804 ≈ 2,340x. Inputs dated 01–02 Sep 2025. (cryptofees.info, European Central Bank, CoinGecko)
• ETH P/F cross-check
  • Fees: 7-day avg $6.738M/day → $2.46B/yr → ~€2.10B.
  • Market cap €455.0B.
  • P/F ≈ 455.0 ÷ 2.10 ≈ 217x. Inputs dated 01–02 Sep 2025. (cryptofees.info, CoinGecko, European Central Bank)
• Production cost conversion
  • $97,084 ÷ 1.1715 = ~€82,872. ECB ref 01 Sep 2025. (MacroMicro, European Central Bank)

B) KPI baselines and where to pull them

• Active addresses: BTC daily from BitInfoCharts; ETH and SOL monthly actives from Token Terminal. ETH fees and revenue detail from Token Terminal dashboards. SOL fees time series from DeFiLlama. (BitInfoCharts, tokenterminal.com, defillama.com)
• Transactions per day: Blockchain.com charts. (Blockchain)
• Realized cap: CoinDesk citing Glassnode, updated 01 Sep 2025. (CoinDesk)
• ETF AUM and flows: Yahoo Finance roundup of late-Aug/early-Sep prints; issuer pages for IBIT. (Yahoo Finance, BlackRock)
• MiCA milestones: Squire Patton Boggs brief and ESMA final report Jul 2025. (squirepattonboggs.com, ESMA)

C) Disclosure boilerplate

This report uses third-party data believed to be reliable, including CoinGecko, ECB, CryptoFees, DeFiLlama, Token Terminal, CoinDesk, and others cited above. All market data are snapshots as of the referenced dates. Crypto markets are volatile and subject to regulatory change.

Valuation Summary and Rating

• We consider Price-to-Fees as the most appropriate anchor for activity-based checks while acknowledging BTC’s store-of-value premium relative to execution chains. Premium is justified by scarcity, ETF distribution at scale, and realized cap progression. (cryptofees.info, CoinDesk)
• Our 12-month target of €115,000 implies ~22 percent upside vs €94,294 spot on 02 Sep 2025. We initiate at Buy.

Full source list (selected, by section)

• Spot price and market cap: CoinGecko BTC/EUR, ETH/EUR, SOL/EUR, 02 Sep 2025. (CoinGecko)
• Halving and block subsidy: The Block 19 Apr 2024; Bitbo blocks per day reference; Investopedia difficulty cadence. (The Block, Bitbo Charts, Investopedia)
• ETF AUM/flows: Yahoo Finance 01 Sep 2025; iShares IBIT facts page 29 Aug 2025. (Yahoo Finance, BlackRock)
• Fees snapshots: CryptoFees dashboard, early Sep 2025; DeFiLlama chain fees pages. (cryptofees.info, defillama.com)
• Realized cap: CoinDesk 01 Sep 2025. (CoinDesk)
• EUR/USD: ECB reference 01 Sep 2025. (European Central Bank)
• Production cost: MacroMicro 31 Aug 2025. (MacroMicro)
• Regulation: Squire Patton Boggs Aug 2025; ESMA final report Jul 2025. (squirepattonboggs.com, ESMA)
• Security risks data: Chainalysis mid-year update Jul 2025. (Chainalysis)

Compliance and important notices

This publication is an AI-generated research report for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any instrument. Digital assets are highly volatile and risky. Past performance is not a guide to future results. Readers should perform their own due diligence and consult independent advisors where appropriate. Data sources and observations are as cited; figures may change after publication. The author and platform accept no liability for decisions based on this content.