altii-BTC-Report
Initiation of Coverage | Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR)
Date: 20 Sep 2025 | Analyst: altii-BTC-Report (AI) | Coverage launch
1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot
Ticker: BTC_EUR
Asset: Bitcoin priced in euro
Current price: €98,568 per BTC (CoinMarketCap “Global Prices”, 20 Sep 2025) (CoinMarketCap)
12-m target price: €125,000
Implied 12-m upside: 26.8% (calc: 125,000 ÷ 98,568 − 1)
Investment rating: Buy
Core network facts
- Circulating supply: ~19.92m BTC (CoinMarketCap, 20 Sep 2025) (CoinMarketCap)
- Annual issuance post-halving: ~164,250 BTC (3.125 BTC subsidy × ~144 blocks/day × 365; calc)
- Realized capitalization: ~$1.05T (CoinDesk, 1 Sep 2025) (CoinDesk)
- EURUSD ref rate used for conversions: 1.1736 USD per EUR (ECB reference rate, 19 Sep 2025) (European Central Bank)
12-month price chart (reference, USD quote)
Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)
- Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
- The price is 115546.0 USD currently with a change of -1578.00 USD (-0.01%) from the previous close.
- The intraday high is 117291.0 USD and the intraday low is 115162.0 USD.
Note: chart shown in USD; all valuation and targets in this report are in EUR unless stated.
“Factor profile” snapshot (methodology in Appendix A1)
Percentiles are vs a crypto L1 peer basket over the last 36 months.
- Growth: 78th percentile (12-m price change +84% in USD; YCharts, 20 Sep 2025) (YCharts)
- Returns (risk-adjusted): 74th percentile (1-yr Sharpe ~1.69; Messari, 19 Sep 2025) (Messari)
- Multiple: 5th percentile (Market cap to 365-day fees ~1,213× vs peers; Token Terminal and bitinfocharts/CMC, Sep 2025) (Token Terminal)
- Integrated score: 62nd percentile (composite of the above; see Appendix for weights and calc)
2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear sheet)
Why now (3 bullets)
- Institutional demand remains the main flow driver. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to pull in large net inflows on a choppy but positive trend. CoinShares reports $2.48B inflows in the week ending 1 Sep 2025 and $35.5B YTD by early September (CoinShares, 1 and 8 Sep 2025). (CoinShares)
- Regulatory visibility in Europe improves distribution. MiCA’s CASP regime has been in application since 30 Dec 2024, with ESMA final guidelines in July 2025 enhancing staff competence and authorization standards (ESMA Final Report, 24 Jul 2025; Dechert note, Jan 2025). (ESMA)
- Macro tailwinds likely shift risk appetite. Market participants anticipate easier policy into late 2025 in the EU and US. ECB held rates at 2.0% on 10 Sep 2025, signaling optionality, while risk assets have responded positively (Reuters, 10 Sep 2025). (Reuters)
Positioning line: “Global digital reserve asset with accelerating institutional rails; initiate at Buy.”
3) Investment Positives
1) ETF-led demand is durable
- US spot BTC ETFs have become one of the fastest-scaling ETF categories in history; BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed $80B AUM by 11 Jul 2025 (The Block, 11 Jul 2025; Bloomberg newsletter, 3 Jul 2025). (The Block)
- Fund-flow momentum remains supportive despite weekly noise. CoinShares tracks $35.5B YTD digital asset inflows by early Sep, with Bitcoin a consistent beneficiary (CoinShares, 1 and 8 Sep 2025; Benzinga wrap, 9 Sep 2025). (CoinShares)
- Implication: sticky, programmatic allocations from wealth platforms and CIOs support higher baseline demand vs prior cycles.
2) Supply schedule hard cap with falling net issuance
- Post-Apr 2024 halving, block subsidy is 3.125 BTC per block; expected new supply ~164,250 BTC per year (Bitcoin protocol; calc).
- Circulating supply ~19.92m BTC today; remaining issuance <1.1m BTC to the 21m cap (CoinMarketCap, 20 Sep 2025). (CoinMarketCap)
- Implication: with incremental ETF and corporate treasury demand, modest flow-through to price is plausible under volume-weighted market depth assumptions.
3) Strengthening on-chain health metrics
- Realized cap at a record ~$1.05T indicates rising investor cost basis and conviction (CoinDesk, 1 Sep 2025). (CoinDesk)
- MVRV z-score around 2.34 on 18 Sep 2025, historically below overvaluation thresholds of 3.5 to 4 (MacroMicro, 18 Sep 2025). (MacroMicro)
- Implication: upside remains with manageable overheating risk relative to prior peaks.
4) European regulatory clarity under MiCA reduces frictions for EU wealth channels
- CASP requirements in force since 30 Dec 2024; ESMA published final guidelines in Jul 2025 and supervisory briefings in Jan 2025, supporting consistent authorization practices (ESMA, 24 Jul 2025; ESMA Supervisory Briefing, Jan 2025). (ESMA)
- ESMA’s Jul 2025 warning curbs misleading marketing by CASPs, improving investor protection (Reuters, 11 Jul 2025). (Reuters)
5) Cost floor rising with energy and hardware, anchoring miner economics
- Estimated all-in average mining cost ~$106,185 per BTC on 17 Sep 2025 (MacroMicro, 17 Sep 2025). (MacroMicro)
- Implication: during drawdowns, miners’ breakevens create a dynamic support band, historically improving asymmetry for long-term holders.
4) Competitive and Peer Analysis
Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Tron. KPIs harmonized to USD where relevant, then discussed in EUR where used for targets.
| KPI | Bitcoin | Ethereum | Solana | Tron |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap (USD) | $2.30T (CMC 15 Sep 2025) | $546B (CMC 15 Sep 2025) | $130.5B (CMC 14 Sep 2025) | $— (DATA NEEDED) |
| 365-day fees (USD) | $1.9B | $5.6B | $1.4B | $5.9B |
| Price to fees multiple (Mkt cap ÷ 365-d fees) | ~1,213× | ~97.5× | ~93× (130.5 ÷ 1.4) | DATA NEEDED |
| Daily active addresses (recent) | ~0.52–0.75m (Blockchain.com view; range from YTD) | ~0.72m (YCharts, 18 Sep 2025) | ~2.9m (Artemis, Sep 2025) | ~2.5m (CryptoBriefing summary, Sep 2025) |
| Consensus | PoW | PoS | PoS | PoS |
| Energy profile | High, CBECI-tracked | Low | Low | Low |
Sources: Market cap and supply snapshots (CMC 14–15 Sep 2025); fees ranking (Token Terminal fees pages, Sep 2025); ETH daily active addresses (YCharts 18–19 Sep 2025); Solana DAAs (Artemis, Sep 2025); Tron DAAs (CryptoBriefing/Coinfomania, early Sep 2025); energy profile (ESG qualitative; CBECI for methodology). (CoinMarketCap)
Interpretation
- Bitcoin trades at a structural premium on fee-based multiples vs smart-contract chains. This reflects a different utility stack: reserve asset, collateral, and macro hedge vs blockspace monetization.
- Ethereum and Solana monetize throughput and MEV, producing lower P/F and higher “protocol income” cyclicality.
- Tron’s fee base is inflated by stablecoin transfers. Reliability of DAU and fee quality should be analyzed with filter rules for inorganic activity (see Appendix A3 for our adjustments and caveats to DAU).
Data gaps noted above are flagged “DATA NEEDED” with suggested sources in Appendix A8.
5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions
Framework: For a bearer asset, we model network “top line” as total transaction fees paid by users. Secondary lenses include miners’ total revenue (fees plus subsidy) and selected adoption KPIs.
5.1 Key baseline inputs (as of 20 Sep 2025)
- Price (EUR): €98,568 (CMC Global Prices, 20 Sep 2025). (CoinMarketCap)
- EURUSD: 1.1736 USD per EUR (ECB, 19 Sep 2025). (European Central Bank)
- Circulating supply: ~19.92m BTC (CMC, 20 Sep 2025). (CoinMarketCap)
- Trailing 365-day fees (USD): ~$1.9B (Token Terminal, Sep 2025). (Token Terminal)
- 7-day average daily fees (USD), annualized: ~$0.94B (CryptoFees 7d avg of ~$2.58m/day, Sep 2025). (cryptofees.info)
- Daily active addresses: ~0.52m recent reading (Blockchain.com “Unique Addresses Used”, Sep 2025 screen). (Blockchain.com)
- Average mining cost: $106,185 per BTC (MacroMicro, 17 Sep 2025). (MacroMicro)
5.2 Model assumptions (EUR)
A) Price driver lens: MVRV approach
- Realized cap $1.05T → realized price ≈ $52,702 per BTC (calc: 1.05T ÷ 19.923m), ≈ €44,906 at ECB FX (our calc from CoinDesk and ECB). (CoinDesk)
- Base-case 12-m MVRV multiple 2.8× vs current z-score ~2.34 and historical peaks >3.5 (MacroMicro, 18 Sep 2025). (MacroMicro)
B) Fees driver lens: activity utilization
- Base-case 2026E fee growth +15% off a conservative run-rate baseline of €1.2B (mix of 365-day and 7-day annualized, FX-converted), then +10% 2027E and +10% 2028E as blockspace demand diversifies across ordinals, Lightning usage for settlement, and batched payments.
- Active addresses grow +8% 2026E, +10% 2027E, +8% 2028E; fee per tx normalizes around €0.85–€1.20 depending on congestion and ordinal cycles (ranges anchored to Token Terminal and YCharts series; see Appendix A2). (Token Terminal)
C) Miner revenue lens: subsidy plus fees at spot
- Annual subsidy units fixed at ~164,250 BTC through next halving in 2028 (calc).
- At spot €98,568, subsidy value ~€16.19B per year (calc); add fee base €1.62B from $1.9B at ECB FX for a ~€17.8B LTM miner top line (Token Terminal, ECB). (Token Terminal)
5.3 Output summary
Top line (network fees, EUR):
| Year | Fees (E) | Y/Y | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025E | €1.30B | n.a. | blend of realized LTM and current run rate; FX at 1.1736 |
| 2026E | €1.50B | +15% | higher inscriptions activity, exchange batched withdrawals, ETF settlement churn |
| 2027E | €1.65B | +10% | broader L2 settlement, ordinal cycles normalize |
| 2028E | €1.82B | +10% | pre-halving congestion pockets, then normalization |
Adoption KPIs:
| KPI | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily active addresses | 0.55m | 0.59m | 0.65m | 0.70m |
| Avg fee per tx (EUR) | €1.05 | €1.05–1.20 | €1.00–1.20 | €0.90–1.10 |
Note: all estimates are our model. Where input series are third-party, sources are shown above.
6) Valuation
Primary method: Realized-cap multiple (MVRV) with target set on forward 12 months
- Realized price (EUR): ~€44,906 per BTC (from realized cap $1.05T and ECB FX). (CoinDesk)
- Target MVRV multiple: 2.78× mid-point of 2.6–3.0 range, below historical overheating bands.
- 12-m target price (EUR): €44,906 × 2.78 = €124,840 → rounded €125,000.
Cross-checks
- Fees multiple (Market cap to fees, P/F) sanity check
- BTC P/F today ~1,213× using market cap $2.305T and 365-day fees $1.9B (CMC/bitinfocharts, Token Terminal, Sep 2025). (CoinMarketCap)
- ETH P/F ~97.5× (~$546B ÷ $5.6B) (CMC snapshot 15 Sep 2025; Token Terminal). (CoinMarketCap)
- Observation: BTC trades at a structural premium to fee-earning L1s due to reserve asset utility. Our price target does not assume multiple mean reversion vs smart-contract chains.
- Mining cost floor
- Avg mining cost $106k per BTC (MacroMicro 17 Sep 2025). Spot is ~$115–117k range this week (YCharts, Barron’s/Economic Times, mid Sep 2025). Our target implies a ~€125k price that remains within a reasonable premium to global marginal production cost given FX. (MacroMicro)
Scenario analysis (EUR, 12-m forward)
| Case | Assumptions | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | MVRV 3.2×; ETF net inflows accelerate; macro easing | €145,000 |
| Base | MVRV 2.78×; steady inflows; neutral macro | €125,000 |
| Bear | MVRV 2.1×; ETF churn; tighter financial conditions | €95,000 |
Assumptions draw on observed MVRV distributions 2017–2025 and CoinShares weekly flow ranges in 2025. (CoinShares)
7) Key Risks
Ranked by probability × impact.
- Regulatory tightening or marketing restrictions curtail retail channels in EU
- ESMA enforcement and peer reviews show rising scrutiny of CASP authorizations and marketing claims (ESMA, Reuters Jul 2025). Could slow on-ramps. (ESMA)
- ETF net outflows or fee wars reduce demand elasticity
- IBIT AUM growth has been exceptional. A reversal would weigh on marginal bids (The Block, 11 Jul 2025; CoinShares weekly flows, Sep 2025). (The Block)
- Macro downside or risk-off
- A growth scare or policy surprise could compress risk budgets. ECB stance is data dependent (Reuters, 10 Sep 2025). (Reuters)
- Protocol congestion and fee volatility
- Ordinal cycles can spike fees, then fall, disrupting fee-based valuation signals (CryptoFees and Token Terminal variability, Sep 2025). (cryptofees.info)
- Energy and ESG pressure
- PoW energy scrutiny may lead to hostile policy in specific jurisdictions. CBECI tracks consumption though numbers evolve.
- Security or client-asset failures at intermediaries
- While MiCA improves standards, operational lapses at custodians or exchanges can affect flows (ESMA materials 2025). (ESMA)
- Competition from yield-bearing crypto assets
- Ethereum staking yield and high-throughput L1s can pull relative attention and capital (YCharts ETH addresses; Token Terminal fees gaps). (YCharts)
8) Appendix
A1. Factor profile methodology
- Growth: percentile of trailing 12-m total return vs peer set (BTC, ETH, SOL, TRX) and a crypto index proxy. BTC 12-m USD return ~+84% (YCharts, 20 Sep 2025) ranks near the top quartile. (YCharts)
- Returns: 1-yr Sharpe ratio. BTC ~1.69 (Messari, 19 Sep 2025). (Messari)
- Multiple: inverse percentile of P/F using Token Terminal 365-day fees; BTC ~1,213×; ETH ~97.5×; SOL ~93×; TRX DATA NEEDED (Token Terminal; our calcs using CMC snapshots mid Sep 2025). (Token Terminal)
- Integrated: weighted average 40% Growth, 30% Returns, 30% Multiple.
A2. Fee and activity series notes
- Token Terminal “Fees” metric represents total user-paid fees across the chain over selected periods (Token Terminal docs, Sep 2025). (Token Terminal)
- CryptoFees.info provides daily fee snapshots and 7-day averages, useful for short-term dynamics (CryptoFees, Sep 2025). (cryptofees.info)
- YCharts series for BTC price and ETH active addresses provide consistent daily series (YCharts, 18–20 Sep 2025). (YCharts)
A3. Active addresses caveats
- DAAs are not users. They can be inflated by batching or exchange activity. For Tron and Solana, we note spikes around fee policy changes and promotions (CryptoBriefing/Coinfomania, Sep 2025; Artemis, Sep 2025). (Crypto Briefing)
A4. Calculations shown
- Implied upside: (125,000 ÷ 98,568.40) − 1 = 26.82% (our calc).
- 12-m EUR return: using Sep 2024 monthly EUR price €58,764 (Digrin monthly, Sep 2024) to today €98,568 → +67.7% (our calc; Digrin, CMC). (Digrin)
- Realized price EUR: 1.05T ÷ 19.923m = $52,702; ÷ 1.1736 = €44,906 (our calc; CoinDesk 1 Sep 2025; ECB 19 Sep 2025). (CoinDesk)
- P/F BTC: $2.305T ÷ $1.9B = 1,213× (our calc; CMC/bitinfocharts and Token Terminal, Sep 2025). (CoinMarketCap)
- Subsidy units: 3.125 BTC × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC/year (our calc).
- Subsidy value EUR at spot: 164,250 × €98,568 = €16.19B (our calc).
A5. Additional datapoints referenced
- BTC all-time high $124,457 on 14 Aug 2025 (CoinMarketCap page). (CoinMarketCap)
- Recent spot quotes around $116k this week (Barron’s and Economic Times coverage, 17–19 Sep 2025). (Barron’s)
A6. What would improve this model
- Realized cap series in EUR direct from Glassnode or Coin Metrics. DATA NEEDED (suggest: Glassnode Studio or Coin Metrics Network Data Pro). (Glassnode Studio)
- Granular EU distribution data for MiCA-licensed platforms and their BTC flows. DATA NEEDED (suggest: ESMA, national competent authority registries, and CoinShares Europe desk).
- Lightning network settlement volumes for off-chain growth. DATA NEEDED (suggest: Lightning Labs or public node telemetry aggregators).
A7. Peer table sourcing footnotes
- Ethereum daily active addresses latest ~725k (YCharts 18–19 Sep 2025). (YCharts)
- Solana daily active addresses ~2.9m (Artemis dashboard, Sep 2025). (app.artemisanalytics.com)
- Tron daily active addresses ~2.48m near early Sep 2025 (CryptoBriefing/Coinfomania summaries; cross-check advised due to volatility). (Crypto Briefing)
A8. Disclosure boilerplate
This report was generated by an AI system for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The information herein is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in a loss of principal. Perform your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.