Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Coverage: Bitcoin priced in euro (ticker examples: BTCEUR on multiple venues)
• Current spot (EUR): ~€98,500 to €98,560 based on Binance and Bitstamp quotes at 07:25–07:30 UTC on 21 Sep 2025. (BitInfoCharts)
• EURUSD reference for conversions: ECB ref rate on 19 Sep 2025: EUR 1 = USD 1.1736. We use this where necessary to convert USD denominated sources to EUR. (European Central Bank)
• 12-month target price (EUR): €130,000
• Implied 12-month upside: ≈ +32% from €98,500
  • Calculation: (130,000 − 98,500) ÷ 98,500 = 0.320, or 32.0%.
• Investment rating: Buy
• Market capitalization (USD): ~$2.32 trillion as of 19–21 Sep 2025. In EUR: ~$2.32T ÷ 1.1736 ≈ €1.98T. (YCharts)
• Circulating supply: ~19.92 million BTC as of 19 Sep 2025. (YCharts)
• Realized capitalization (USD): ~$1.05–$1.06 trillion recent record. In EUR: ~$1.06T ÷ 1.1736 ≈ €0.90T. (CoinDesk)
• Latest halving: 20 Apr 2024. Block subsidy now 3.125 BTC. Approximate target of ~144 blocks/day implies ~450 BTC/day issuance, or ~164,250 BTC/year. At 19.92m circulating, annual issuance rate ≈ 0.83%. (Investopedia)
• Network security: 7-day SMA hashrate recently around ~1.0 ZH/s with daily prints in the ~950–1,090 EH/s range in mid-Sep 2025. (Hashrate Index)
• US spot Bitcoin ETF landscape: cumulative net inflows since launch ≈ $57.7B, recent daily flow streaks, total spot BTC ETF AUM ≈ $152B and ~6.6% of BTC market cap on 16 Sep. (Farside)

“Factor profile” snapshot (percentiles vs ETH and SOL peers)

• Growth: 1-year price total return
  • BTC +84% y/y, ETH +75% y/y, SOL +63% y/y → BTC at 100th percentile among these three. (CoinGecko)
• Returns: Realized cap momentum
  • BTC realized cap at record ~$1.05–$1.06T → 90th percentile signal versus own history. (CoinDesk)
• Multiple: MVRV now ~2.16 (lower is “cheaper” on this heuristic) → 55th percentile versus cycle ranges that often top >3.5. (Bitbo)
• Integrated percentile (simple average): ≈ 82nd percentile.

12-month price chart

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 115854.0 USD currently with a change of -129.00 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 116155.0 USD and the intraday low is 115519.0 USD.

Note: chart shows BTC priced in USD. We translate to EUR using the ECB ref rate when needed. (European Central Bank)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Positioning line: “Digital monetary network at global scale, initiate at Buy on ETF-driven demand, record security, and supportive on-chain valuation.”

Why now — 3 bullets

1. Structural buyers: US spot ETFs have amassed ~$152B AUM with cumulative ~$58B net inflows, creating a steady bid that now represents ~6.6% of BTC market cap. This mechanical demand was absent in prior cycles. (TradingView)
2. Supply compression: Post-halving issuance is ~450 BTC/day versus 900 previously, cutting new supply to ~0.83% annualized. In the presence of ETF demand, this tilts the flow imbalance positive. (Investopedia)
3. Valuation not extended: MVRV ~2.16 and on-chain activity metrics suggest we are not at typical cycle peak conditions, providing headroom for a 12-month fair value of €130k under normalized multiples and modest realized-cap growth. (Bitbo)

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF distribution creates programmatic demand

• Since January 2024 launch, US spot ETFs have accrued ~$57.7B net inflows. Combined AUM ~$152B, equal to ~6.6% of BTC market cap as of mid-Sep 2025.
  • Implication: small daily net inflows mechanically absorb a material fraction of new issuance. (Farside)
• Flow math example: at $150B AUM, a 0.05% net inflow day is $75M. At $116k/BTC that is ~645 BTC, above new issuance of ~450 BTC/day. On net-inflow days, supply is negative before considering miner or trader flows. Assumption illustrated, not a guarantee. Issuance source cited. (Investopedia)

2) Security and resilience at record levels

• Hashrate 7-day SMA around ~1.0 ZH/s and daily estimates in the ~950–1,090 EH/s band as of mid-Sep. Higher hashrate hardens the network, improves settlement assurances, and expands the economic moat. (Hashrate Index)

3) Realized capitalization base is thicker

• Realized cap recently >$1.05T, an all-time high, signaling sustained capital absorption even through pullbacks. A larger realized base historically dampens drawdowns and compresses the volatility of valuation multiples. (CoinDesk)

4) European investors benefit from euro-denominated rails

• Multiple ETNs and ETPs listed on Xetra and SIX provide local wrappers. DATA NEEDED: consolidated EU Bitcoin ETP AUM by issuer. Suggested sources: issuer fund pages, Deutsche Börse Xetra statistics, SIX structured products data.

5) Relative growth lead holds versus mega-caps

• 1-year total return for BTC vs ETH vs SOL: ~84% vs 75% vs 63% respectively, keeping BTC in leadership among majors while avoiding the fee-sensitivity of smart-contract L1s. (CoinGecko)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Framework: Compare BTC with ETH and SOL on scale, usage, and “valuation proxy” multiples appropriate to protocols.

Snapshot table (values latest available, converted to EUR where noted):

Takeaways

• BTC dominates by market cap and realized cap, but trades at a much higher Mcap/fees multiple than smart-contract L1s. That is expected given Bitcoin’s design where fees secure the base layer rather than accrue to holders. Multiples should be interpreted in the context of asset purpose. (Token Terminal)
• BTC’s MVRV ~2.16 sits below typical cycle tops, supporting a non-stretched stance relative to its own history. (Bitbo)

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Time frame: 12-month price target and a 3-year operating outlook for key drivers. Base currency EUR for targets, with USD metrics converted at 1.1736 USD/EUR per ECB ref. (European Central Bank)

Key driver assumptions

1. Net structural demand
   • US spot ETFs: we assume $60B of net inflows over the next 12 months in our base case, consistent with recent cadence and AUM scale. This is an assumption. Directionally supported by recent daily streaks and cumulative inflows. (Farside)
   • Non-US wrappers: DATA NEEDED for Europe and Asia net flows. Suggested sources: Farside Investors for non-US trackers, issuer reports, SIX and Xetra statistics.
2. Supply
   • Issuance: ~164,250 BTC/year at 3.125 BTC per block, ~144 blocks/day. Annual issuance rate ~0.83% at today’s supply. (Investopedia)
   • Miner net selling: assume miners sell 50–60% of newly issued BTC in base case due to capex and opex needs. DATA NEEDED for precise trailing 12m miner sell pressure. Suggested sources: Glassnode miner balances, CryptoQuant miner outflow indices.
3. On-chain activity and fees
   • Trailing 365d fees: starting point ~$1.9B for BTC. We model +25% y/y growth to ~$2.4B as inscriptions, L2 utilization, and volatility re-accelerate. Assumption informed by fee cycles. (Token Terminal)
4. Valuation anchor
   • MVRV approach: Price = MVRV × Realized Price; Market cap = MVRV × Realized Cap.
   • Current markers: MVRV ~2.16 and realized cap ~$1.06T. Implies spot mcap ~2.16 × 1.06T = $2.29T which aligns with reported market cap. (Bitbo)

12-month base case target derivation (explicit math)

• Step 1: Project realized cap growth.
  We assume +12% growth in realized cap on the back of net ETF inflows and organic adoption. Starting $1.06T, target realized cap $1.19T.
  • Sensitivity: each additional $10B in realized cap adds roughly $10B to mcap at constant MVRV.
• Step 2: Normalize MVRV.
  We apply MVRV = 2.7 as a mid-cycle, non-euphoric multiple within historical bands that have peaked >3.5. This is below blow-off top conditions and consistent with elevated but not extreme risk appetite. (Cryptoquant)
• Step 3: Implied market cap and price.
  • Target mcap = 2.7 × $1.19T = $3.213T.
  • Implied BTC price (USD) = $3.213T ÷ 19.92m = $161,300.
  • Convert to EUR at ECB ref: $161,300 ÷ 1.1736 = €137,400.
  • We apply a 5% execution discount for model uncertainty and FX variability → €130,000 12-month target.

Cross-checks

• ETF share-of-flow check: If ETFs add $60B net over 12 months, at $120k/BTC that is ~500k BTC of demand (60,000 / 0.12 ≈ 500). New issuance ≈ 164k BTC, leaving a ~336k BTC demand gap to be met by secondary holders, supportive for price absent offsetting outflows. Illustrative only. Issuance and recent flows sourced. (Investopedia)
• “P/Fees” sanity check: Using modeled BTC fees $2.4B and mcap at target $3.21T, the Mcap/fees would be ~1,340x. This remains far above ETH and SOL “P/fees” but that is expected for BTC given its monetary rather than application utility. (Token Terminal)

3-year outline of operating KPIs and drivers

Notes: 2025E price averages reflect YTD realized levels. Realized cap start point consistent with cited data. Hashrate projections assume continued ASIC deployment and efficiency gains following grid buildouts. DATA NEEDED for granular EU ETP flows and Lightning capacity to refine DAU assumptions. (CoinDesk)

6) Valuation

Primary method: On-chain “multiple” via MVRV

• Rationale: Bitcoin lacks cash flows. On-chain valuation relates market value to realized capitalization, a robust proxy for capital actually deployed into the asset over time. Current MVRV ~2.16 suggests room before typical tops >3.5 in prior cycles. Base case uses 2.7, resulting in €130k 12-month target as derived above. (Bitbo)

Cross-check A: Mcap to fees “P/Fees”

• BTC today: ~$2.32T / ~$1.9B ≈ 1,216x. ETH: ~$541B / ~$5.6B ≈ 97x. SOL: ~$130B / ~$1.4B ≈ 93x. Interpretation: BTC’s role is monetary settlement and reserve. Comparing to application chains overstates its “multiple.” (YCharts)

Cross-check B: NVT / activity

• DATA NEEDED for latest entity-adjusted transfer volume to compute 90-day NVT precisely. Suggested sources: Glassnode NVT dashboards, Coin Metrics network transfer volume. (Glassnode Studio)

7) Key Risks

1) ETF flow reversal or saturation

• After multi-day inflow streaks, spot ETF demand could stall or reverse, removing a key marginal buyer. We have seen both strong inflows and occasional outflows recently. (The Block)

2) Macro volatility and rates path

• BTC has rallied into and after a recent US Fed cut. A growth scare or risk-off could tighten financial conditions, pressuring crypto beta. (The Economic Times)

3) Miner stress and hashrate drawdown

• If price dips while energy costs rise, miner profitability compresses. Hashrate has hit records, but a sharp retreat would weaken security assumptions. (YCharts)

4) Regulatory regime shifts

• The ETF era adds legitimacy but also regulatory exposure. Rule changes on custody, capital, or EU MiCA enforcement could alter access. DATA NEEDED: specific EU enforcement updates and national implementations of MiCA Titles. Suggested sources: ESMA technical standards, national competent authorities.

5) Valuation risk

• While MVRV ~2.16 is below peak zones, a swift run to >3.5 would raise correction risk, historically associated with 30–50% drawdowns. (Bitbo)

6) Stablecoin plumbing

• Large on-ramps still pass through USD stablecoins. Any redemption shock could transmit liquidity stress to BTC. DATA NEEDED: stablecoin supply changes and concentration metrics. Suggested sources: Coin Metrics, The Block Data.

8) Appendix

A1. Detailed price-target math recap

• Inputs: Realized cap today $1.06T. Target 12-month realized cap $1.19T (+12%). Target MVRV 2.7. Supply 19.92m BTC. ECB FX 1.1736.
• Outputs: Target market cap $3.213T. Per-coin price $161,300 USD. Converted €137,400, minus 5% execution buffer → €130,000. (Bitbo)

A2. Peer “P/Fees” calculation detail

• BTC: $2.32T / $1.9B = 1,216x. ETH: $541B / $5.6B = 96.6x. SOL: $130B / $1.4B = 92.9x. Fees data from Token Terminal fees pages, market caps from CoinGecko snapshots. (Token Terminal)

A3. Activity snapshot references

• BTC daily active addresses: ~225k–245k on 20–21 Sep 2025. (BitInfoCharts)
• ETH daily active addresses: ~725k on 18–19 Sep 2025. (YCharts)
• SOL daily active addresses: DATA NEEDED. Suggested: Artemis chain comparables “Daily Active Addresses” 7-day MA. (Artemis Terminal)

A4. Security and issuance references

• Hashrate: daily and SMA prints ~950–1,090 EH/s around mid-Sep, topping 1 ZH/s SMA. (YCharts)
• Issuance: 3.125 BTC reward since 20 Apr 2024 halving; ~144 blocks/day → ~450 BTC/day. (Investopedia)

A5. ETF reference material

• Farside Investors Bitcoin ETF Flow table shows cumulative totals by fund and in aggregate, including GBTC outflows. Total cumulative net inflows show ~$57.7B. Recent days include multiple $500m+ total inflow prints. (Farside)
• SoSoValue and The Block confirm recurring large daily prints. (The Block)

A6. Sensitivity table (indicative)

Price target sensitivity to MVRV and realized-cap growth

• Realized-cap growth 0%, 8%, 12%, 16% crossed with MVRV 2.3, 2.5, 2.7, 3.0.
• Example: with RC growth 8% (to $1.145T) and MVRV 2.5 → mcap $2.86T → price $143.5k USD → €122.3k. With RC growth 16% and MVRV 3.0 → ~€164k.

A7. Data gaps and recommended sources

• EU ETP AUM and flows: Xetra, SIX, issuer pages.
• Lightning capacity and usage: mempool.space, 1ML, Amboss.
• Entity-adjusted transfer volume for NVT: Glassnode, Coin Metrics. (Glassnode Studio)

Disclosures, methodology, and compliance

• This report uses publicly available data including ECB FX reference rates for currency conversions, market cap and price series from CoinGecko and YCharts, realized cap and MVRV from Glassnode-referencing outlets and Bitbo, fees from Token Terminal, hashrate from YCharts, Hashrate Index, and CoinWarz, and ETF flows from Farside Investors, SoSoValue, and The Block. Sources and dates are cited inline. (European Central Bank)
• Forecasts are the analyst’s opinion based on the methods described. On-chain valuation approaches such as MVRV and NVT are heuristics, not guarantees of value realization. Mcap/fees comparisons across different protocol designs have limitations. (Cryptoquant)
• Cryptoassets are highly volatile and can result in loss of principal.

Compliance language:
This document was generated by an AI system for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, digital asset, or financial instrument. Do your own research, consider your objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions. The authors and platforms cited may hold positions in assets mentioned.