Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) – Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 109672.0 USD currently with a change of 296.00 USD (0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 109814.0 USD and the intraday low is 109253.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

Instrument: Bitcoin vs EUR (BTC_EUR)
Current spot (Sep 28, 2025, Europe/Berlin): €93,600 to €93,700 per BTC based on major aggregates (CoinGecko €93,626; Binance €93,599; Yahoo Finance BTC-EUR page corroborates live tape). (CoinGecko)

Cross-checks: BTC in USD $109,672 as of now; ECB EURUSD ref. 1.1672 on Sep 26, 2025 implies €94k, consistent with venue prints. (European Central Bank)

Market cap (EUR): c. €1.86 trillion (venue methodology, Binance). Circulating supply: 19.93 million BTC (Sep 27, 2025). (Binance)

12-month Target Price (EUR): €120,000
Implied upside: ~28.2% vs €93,600 spot. Calculation: (120,000 − 93,600) / 93,600 = 28.205%.

Investment Rating: Buy

Time horizon: 12 months

Primary valuation anchor: Market-cap-to-realized-cap multiple (MVRV) cross-checked with institutional net flows and post-halving supply math. Realized cap reference: ~$1.05T (Sep 1, 2025). (CoinDesk)

“Factor profile” radar (percentiles vs large-cap crypto set, our scaled view):

• Growth 70
• Returns 65
• Multiple 55
• Integrated 63
  Methodology: blend of 12-mth price change, realized-cap growth, drawdown vs peers, and MVRV vs 3-yr band. Calibration datapack for full peer universe is DATA NEEDED; suggested sources: Glassnode Studio, The Block Data, CryptoQuant.

12-month price chart: See interactive chart above (BTC in USD; EUR conversion shown in text).

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now – 3 bullets

1. Supply compression is now structural: The April 2024 halving cut issuance to 3.125 BTC per block, or ~450 BTC/day, ~164,250 BTC/year. At current pace, US spot ETFs alone can absorb more than the entire new supply in many weeks, forcing price to clear. (Blockpit)
2. Institutional demand is sticky and scaling: US spot Bitcoin ETFs show cumulative net inflows of about $60.8B since launch, with BlackRock’s IBIT at $84.1B AUM as of Sep 26, 2025. Flow pulses remain episodic but directionally positive. Europe’s ETP market is smaller yet growing. (farside.co.uk)
3. Macro tailwinds in Europe: The ECB deposit rate sits at 2.00% while eurozone HICP hovers near target, supporting risk appetite amid a firmer EUR. A stronger EUR reduces USD volatility bleed for EUR investors and simplifies EUR-based allocation decisions. (European Central Bank)

Positioning line: “Scarcity meets sponsorship.” We initiate on BTC_EUR at Buy, anchored on post-halving supply dynamics and durable institutional sponsorship evidenced in ETF data.

3) Investment Positives

1) Programmed scarcity meets visible buyers

• Issuance math post-halving: 3.125 BTC/block, designed 144 blocks/day. That is ~450 BTC/day and ~164,250 BTC/year. Even modest ETF net buying at 1,000 to 3,000 BTC/day during flow pulses materially overwhelms new supply. (Blockpit)
• Blocks per day target and difficulty retarget every 2016 blocks (~2 weeks) backstop the 10-minute cadence. Scarcity is rule-based, not policy-based. (Blockchain)

2) Institutional ramps are real

• US spot BTC ETFs: cumulative net inflows ~$60.8B to Sep 26, 2025, with days of $200M–$700M+ swings; IBIT AUM $84.1B (Sep 26). These funds act as persistent accumulators and reduce frictions for large pools of EUR capital that allocate via USD products or UCITS proxies. (farside.co.uk)
• Daily datapoints show flows remain lumpy but positive; examples include +$241M day (Sep 24). (X (formerly Twitter))
• Europe ETP scaffolding: 21Shares cites >$11B global AUM and continued product launches; Europe’s crypto ETP market was c. $13.6B in size in Apr 2025 and is expanding. (GlobeNewswire)

3) Network security and settlement capacity at record levels

• 7-day average hashrate broke 1.0 ZH/s in early Sep 2025, a new structural plateau, indicating rising security spend and miner confidence. Recent levels around 1.10 ZH/s. (CoinDesk)
• Daily fees are subdued relative to 2021–22 spikes, improving user experience while indicating spare blockspace capacity as L2s and batching improve. Fees per day hovered around $0.29M–$0.46M on Sep 27 vs a year ago levels near $0.73M. (YCharts)

4) European regulatory clarity is improving

• MiCA became fully applicable on Dec 30, 2024 for CASPs, with Level 2/3 measures evolving in 2025, and stablecoin rules staggered from Jun 30, 2024. Clarity lowers operational and custody frictions for EU allocators. (www.hoganlovells.com)
• ECB policy visibility: deposit facility 2.00% with inflation near target reduces tail risk of aggressive policy tightening. (European Central Bank)

5) Liquidity and market depth continuing to thicken via ETFs

• ETFs compress bid-ask and warehouse BTC in institutional wrappers. IBIT basket disclosures and AUM scale signal continuing mainstreaming. (BlackRock)

4) Competitive / Peer Analysis

We compare BTC with the closest large-cap crypto peer ETH on settlement, demand, and valuation proxies. Values are latest available around Sep 27–28, 2025.

Peer takeaways: BTC continues to dominate the store-of-value narrative, institutional wrapper availability, and hash-secured settlement. ETH monetizes blockspace more directly via fees and validators. For EUR allocators seeking monetary beta, BTC remains the simpler thesis.

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions (3-year, EUR investor lens)

Framework: BTC is not a company, so we model drivers that correlate with value: realized capitalization growth, MVRV banding, net ETF demand vs new supply, and EURUSD.

Key model inputs

• Supply growth: 3.125 BTC/block × 144 blocks/day = ~450 BTC/day → 164,250 BTC/year issuance post-halving. (Bitbo Charts)
• Realized cap (start): ~$1.05T (Sep 1, 2025). (CoinDesk)
• MVRV now: ~2.0 to 2.1 implied by spot cap vs realized cap (illustrative moment). DATA NEEDED for exact daily MVRV; suggested source: Glassnode, MacroMicro. (MacroMicro)
• US ETF cumulative net inflows: ~$60.8B (Sep 26). Flow scenarios below. (farside.co.uk)
• EURUSD: ECB reference 1.1672 on Sep 26, 2025; assume 1.15–1.20 band going forward. (European Central Bank)

Scenario grid (12-month view, then extend)

Bull case (25% probability):

• Realized cap +25% to $1.31T on strong ETF demand and macro; MVRV lifts to 2.25–2.35.
• Market cap target $2.95T midpoint.
• End-period supply ~20.09M BTC.
• Implied price: $2.95T / 20.09M = $147k. EUR at 1.17 ⇒ €126k. (CoinDesk)

Base case (50% probability):

• Realized cap +18% to $1.24T; MVRV normalizes to ~2.10.
• Market cap $2.60T.
• Price $129.5k → €111k at 1.17. We set a modest premium for European wrappers and liquidity, landing the official TP at €120k to reflect the upper half of our base distribution given recent institutionalization. (CoinDesk)

Bear case (25% probability):

• Realized cap +5% to $1.10T; MVRV compresses to ~1.6 on risk-off and ETF outflows.
• Market cap $1.76T.
• Price $88k → €75k at 1.17. (European Central Bank)

Probability-weighted outcome: ~€114k. We set €120k TP to capture skew from ongoing structural flows and Europe’s improving regulatory footing. (www.hoganlovells.com)

Operating KPIs we track (assumptions)

• ETF net flows next 12 months: Base +$40B, Bull +$70B, Bear +$5B. Sourcing cadence: Farside, SoSoValue. DATA NEEDED daily aggregation log for Europe-listed ETPs. (farside.co.uk)
• Hashrate: Range 0.95–1.30 ZH/s 7-day average, reflecting miner capex pipelines and energy markets. (CoinDesk)
• On-chain activity: Daily tx 400k–650k, fees remain benign unless mempool spikes from inscriptions or L2 migration changes. DATA NEEDED real-time series; suggest Bitinfocharts, YCharts. (BitInfoCharts)
• Lightning Network: Capacity has trended down from late-2023 peak, but does not impair the store-of-value thesis; we assume flat-to-slight decline stabilizing as routing improves. (CryptoSlate)

6) Valuation

Primary method: Market-cap-to-realized-cap (MVRV) as a “multiple” analog.

• Rationale: Realized cap tracks aggregate cost basis; MVRV benchmarks speculative premium. Current realized cap ~$1.05T. Spot MVRV ≈ market cap / realized cap. We anchor our TP on realized cap growth and a normalized MVRV band 2.0–2.3. (CoinDesk)

Cross-checks:

• Flow absorption vs issuance: New supply ~164k BTC/yr. Base ETF flow assumption +$40B at $120k average implies ~333k BTC acquired, exceeding new issuance by ~2x, consistent with tight float dynamics. DATA NEEDED: precise ETF holdings in BTC; use SoSoValue or issuers’ basket disclosures. (SoSoValue)
• Peer lens: ETH has higher fee capture; BTC’s security budget and ETF sponsorship warrant mid-cycle MVRV near 2.1 in our base. ETH’s fee profile is not directly comparable to BTC’s realized cap construct. DATA NEEDED for ETH realized cap. (YCharts)

Sanity check math (base):

• Realized cap $1.24T × MVRV 2.10 = $2.60T cap → $129.5k per BTC. EUR 1.17 → €111k. We lift to €120k TP reflecting recent flow skew and EUR investor convenience premium. (European Central Bank)

7) Key Risks

1) ETF flow reversal

• Large daily outflows have occurred; multiple days with −$100M to −$400M reported. Prolonged outflows compress MVRV and undercut TP math. Mitigant: multi-issuer market, institutional allocators diversify timing. (farside.co.uk)

2) Macro currency and rates

• EURUSD volatility affects EUR returns vs USD prints. A sharp EUR appreciation to 1.25 would mechanically lower EUR returns for a given USD BTC price. Mitigant: ECB on hold at 2.00% reduces policy shock risk near term. (European Central Bank)

3) Regulatory implementation risk in EU

• MiCA Level 2/3 measures still phasing in. Missteps or fragmented national implementations could slow EU platform availability or stablecoin liquidity. (www.hoganlovells.com)

4) Mining economics squeeze

• If BTC price lags while difficulty rises, weaker miners could capitulate, temporarily dislocating hashrate and sentiment. Hashrate nonetheless remains near a record plateau. (CoinDesk)

5) Security or protocol risks

• Extreme tail events like consensus failures or significant exchange custodian incidents would challenge the thesis. Mitigant: rising hashrate and conservative core changes.

6) Lightning/L2 adoption optics

• Reported Lightning capacity fell vs 2023 peaks. Headlines can be misread as usage decline even when wallet UX or private channels evolve. Mitigant: store-of-value drivers dominate TP horizon. (CryptoSlate)

7) Fee drought interpretation

• Low on-chain fees could be read as weak demand. Counter-point: efficiency gains, L2s, and batching lower unit costs; realized cap and ETF data are better demand proxies in 2025. (YCharts)

8) Appendix

A) Data and Calculations

Current spot triangulation (Sep 28, 2025):

• CoinGecko BTC/EUR €93,426–€93,626 band; Binance €93,599; Yahoo Finance BTC-EUR live page. ECB EURUSD 1.1672 (Sep 26). Cross-check to BTC USD $109,672 implies ~€94k. (CoinGecko)

Issuance math post-halving:

• Reward 3.125 BTC/block. Design cadence ~10 min/block; target 144 blocks/day; issuance ≈ 3.125 × 144 = 450 BTC/day; yearly 450 × 365 = 164,250 BTC. Difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks. (Blockpit)

Hashrate and fees checks:

• Network hashrate: 7-day average first sustained above 1.0 ZH/s on Sep 2; YCharts daily shows ~1.097B TH/s (= 1.097 ZH/s) Sep 27. Fees per day on Sep 27 ~$0.29M. (CoinDesk)

ETF flows and AUM:

• Farside Investors aggregate net inflows $60.8B as of Sep 26; example daily inflow $241M on Sep 24; BlackRock IBIT $84.1B AUM Sep 26. (farside.co.uk)

On-chain activity illustrations:

• Bitinfocharts shows ~553k tx in last 24h and ~143,896 BTC moved over 24h (unadjusted). Use adjusted series from The Block for volume when modeling velocity. (BitInfoCharts)

Lightning capacity context:

• From ~5,400 BTC peak late-2023 to ~4,200 BTC by Aug 2025 per CryptoSlate summary; interpretation varies with private channels and wallet behavior. (CryptoSlate)

Macro policy context:

• ECB deposit facility 2.00% as of Sep 11 decision; Euro area HICP flash Aug 2025 2.1% with Sep flash due Oct 1. (European Central Bank)

B) Extended scenario math (12-month)

• Base realized cap path: start $1.05T → $1.24T (+18%) on net ETF accumulation and reduced free float; MVRV 2.10 → $2.60T cap.
• Supply at horizon: start ~19.93M BTC → +0.164M ≈ 20.09M.
• Per-BTC USD price: $2.60T / 20.09M = $129.5k.
• EUR translation: divide by 1.17 = €110.7k. Round to €111k. Base TP set at €120k to reflect skew from flow torque and potential EUR tailwinds. (CoinDesk)

C) Regulatory timeline (EU quick sheet)

• MiCA: stablecoin provisions effective Jun 30, 2024; full CASP regime Dec 30, 2024; further Level 2/3 technicals in 2025. ECB preparing digital euro decisions as the preparation phase ends Oct 2025; discussions of a 2029 potential launch. (hacken.io)

D) Expanded peer snapshots

• BTC fees/day: ~$0.29M Sep 27; ETH fees/day: ~$121M Sep 27; ETH average tx fee ~$0.40 Sep 27. These data highlight divergent fee structures and should not be used one-to-one for valuation, but they inform monetization of blockspace. (YCharts)

E) Disclosure boilerplate

This report relies on third-party public data believed to be reliable. We do not guarantee completeness or accuracy. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss of principal. This is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. This research was generated by AI for information purposes only and should not be used for investment decisions.