Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 123251.0 USD currently with a change of 3325.00 USD (0.03%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 123928.0 USD and the intraday low is 119360.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Coverage currency: EUR
• Date: 3 Oct 2025, 16:00 CET
• Current price: €105,037 per BTC, using BTC spot $123,251 and ECB EURUSD 1.1734. Calculation: 123,251 ÷ 1.1734 = 105,037.5. (European Central Bank)
• 12-month price target: €141,000
  • Method: share-of-gold framework cross-checked by network multiples. See Valuation.
• Implied 12-month upside: ~34.5%. Calculation: (141,000 − 105,037) ÷ 105,037.
• Investment rating: Buy

Factor profile (percentiles vs peer set BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold; our composite methodology described in Appendix)

• Growth: 80
• Returns: 70
• Multiple: 55
• Integrated: 72
  Inputs include 12-month price trends, active addresses, fee momentum, and relative valuation vs on-chain activity and gold. Sources for raw inputs: prices YCharts/CoinMarketCap, addresses and on-chain value Bitinfocharts/Blockchain.com, gold data WGC and Reuters. (YCharts)

12-month price chart: see interactive widget above. Dollar chart shown; EUR figures use ECB reference rate. (European Central Bank)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — three bullets

1. ETF flywheel is alive. US spot Bitcoin ETFs are adding assets at pace, with daily net inflows recently above $600 million and cumulative ~$59 billion in 2025 so far. We estimate US spot ETFs now hold ~1.29 million BTC. This creates a steady net buyer that exceeds new supply post-halving. (Farside)
2. Post-halving supply shock is structural. The April 2024 halving cut issuance from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, reducing annual supply growth from roughly 1.8% to ~0.9%. New issuance is now about 450 BTC/day, amplifying the impact of ETF demand. (Investopedia)
3. Macro and gold tailwinds. Gold is near record highs at ~$3,872/oz, and central-bank demand remains elevated. Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative benefits when real yields and policy uncertainty support alternative reserves. (Reuters)

Positioning line: Digital reserve asset with accelerating institutional demand — initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF demand > new supply post-halving

• US spot ETF cumulative net inflows ~$59B YTD 2025 with recent daily net inflow ~$627M. Using an average BTC price near $120k, that equates to roughly 5,225–5,500 BTC/day of gross purchases on heavy-flow days. Compare to ~450 BTC/day new issuance. Calculation example: $627M ÷ $120k ≈ 5,225 BTC. (Farside)
• Farside and The Block trackers show multi-day streaks of net inflows across issuers led by BlackRock’s IBIT, whose AUM is ~$93.5B. (Farside)

2) Scarcity flywheel from halving

• Block subsidy reduced to 3.125 BTC on 19–20 Apr 2024, dropping annualized issuance to ~0.9%. Issuance math: 144 blocks/day × 3.125 BTC = 450 BTC/day. Scarcity supports higher equilibrium prices when demand persists. (Investopedia)

3) Network security at record scale

• Bitcoin hashrate sits near the 1 ZH/s range on daily averages, up strongly year over year, indicating growing security spend. Higher hashrate improves attack costs and network robustness. (BitInfoCharts)

4) On-chain activity and fee base are resilient

• 7-day average daily fees near $2.6M; ETH remains higher, but BTC fees plus subsidy still fund security in the post-halving regime. (cryptofees.info)
• Recent 24h data point: ~281k BTC (~$34.7B) sent on-chain, with average fee about $1.29 and median fee $0.56. Signals capacity for high value settlement. (BitInfoCharts)

5) EU regulatory clarity reduces headline risk for EUR investors

• MiCA is fully applicable since 30 Dec 2024, with continuing Level 2 and Level 3 texts and supervisory guidelines in 2025. Clear CASP licensing and market abuse guidance lower structural risk for European institutions. (EY)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Gold (XAU). Values in latest available data. All EUR conversions where needed use ECB reference rate where stated; USD figures shown where industry standard.

Sources: Market cap and price for BTC and ETH YCharts and finance tool; supply MacroMicro and YCharts; fees CryptoFees; addresses Bitinfocharts; gold above-ground stock World Gold Council; gold price Reuters. Where a datapoint is marked DATA NEEDED, see suggested sources in Appendix. (YCharts)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

We translate a non-corporate asset into a structured model using three operating blocks:

• Demand: net new holdings via listed products and balance-sheet adoption
• Supply: deterministic issuance plus dormant-coin dynamics
• Network activity: fees and settlement volumes that proxy utility and security spend

Baseline starting points (as of 3 Oct 2025)

• Price: $123,251 per BTC. EUR price used in this report is €105,037 at ECB EURUSD 1.1734. (European Central Bank)
• Spot ETF footprint: US ETFs now hold ~1.29M BTC. Share of circulating supply ~6.47%. Calc: 1.29M ÷ 19.929M. (Yahoo Finance)
• Issuance: ~450 BTC/day or ~164k BTC/year until next halving. (Bitbo)
• Fees: 7-day avg BTC $2.58M/day. Annualized network “revenue” baseline $0.94B. Calc: 2.58M × 365. (cryptofees.info)
• On-chain settlement: recent 24h example $34.7B transferred. (BitInfoCharts)

Scenario assumptions for 2026–2028

We project three cases for 12 months forward (through Oct 2026) and extend them to 2027 and 2028 to frame risk.

ETF net flow path

• Base: average $200M/day net inflow Oct–Dec 2025, slowing to $75M/day 2026, $25M/day 2027, flat 2028 as penetration matures. Rationale: flow trackers show multi-month positive trend with lumpiness; we normalize. (Farside)
• Bull: sustained $300M/day through 1H26 before fading.
• Bear: episodic outflows in 2026 netting to $0 for the year.

Supply path

• All cases add ~164k BTC to supply over 12 months. Next halving in 2028 reduces block subsidy to 1.5625 BTC. (Bitbo)

Fees and activity

• Base: fees grow with price and inscriptions usage, +15% y/y to $1.08B in 2026, then +10% 2027, +5% 2028. Cross-check with CryptoFees history. (cryptofees.info)
• Bull: +40% 2026 on sustained asset issuance via ordinals and emerging L2s, then +15% and +10%.
• Bear: −20% 2026 as congestion eases, then flat.

EURUSD FX

• We hold EUR at 1.17 USD in Base for target conversion, per ECB reference context. Sensitivity shown in Appendix. (European Central Bank)

12-month price model outputs (to Oct 2026)

We use two triangulations:

1. Share-of-gold framework applied to investable gold stock
   • World gold above-ground stock = 216,265 tonnes. At $3,872/oz that equals $26.9T total. Investable bars, coins, ETFs subset ~48,634t implies ~$6.05T.
   • Current BTC market cap ~$2.46T equals ~41% of investable gold.
   • Base assumes BTC converges to 55% of investable gold in 12 months as ETFs scale, implying target $3.33T market cap. With projected supply ~20.09M BTC, target $165,700 per BTC or €141,000 at 1.1734.
   • Bull at 70% share implies $4.24T and $211,000 or €180,000.
   • Bear at 40% share implies $2.42T and $121,000 or €103,000.
     Sources: WGC stock, Reuters gold price, ECB FX, MacroMicro supply, finance tool price. Calculations shown. (World Gold Council)
2. Network multiple cross-check
   • BTC P/F multiple = Market cap ÷ annualized fees. 2.46T ÷ 0.94B ≈ ~2,610x.
   • ETH P/F multiple = 0.549T ÷ 2.46B ≈ ~223x.
     Interpretation: BTC trades at a far higher multiple of network fees than ETH because BTC’s value is primarily monetary premium. We track compression risk if fee growth under-delivers. (cryptofees.info)

Price target selection: We weight 70% to gold-share, 30% to network multiples. Base case yields €141,000, which we set as our 12-month target.

Implied upside: from €105,037 spot to €141,000 equals ~34.5%.

6) Valuation

Primary approach: Share of investable gold

• Step 1: Investable gold value. 48,634 tonnes × 32,150.7 oz/tonne × $3,872/oz ≈ $6.05T. (World Gold Council)
• Step 2: Target BTC share 55% = $3.33T.
• Step 3: 12-month supply ≈ 20.093M. Price = $165,700. FX 1.1734 → €141,000. (MacroMicro)

Cross-checks

• NVT sanity check: Using a recent 24h on-chain value $34.7B and MC $2.456T, NVT ~ 71. If the 12-month target requires MC $3.33T and daily settlement scales proportionally with price at similar velocity, NVT remains within long-cycle ranges. Inputs: price/supply above, on-chain volume Bitinfocharts. (BitInfoCharts)
• Relative multiple vs ETH: BTC’s P/F ~ 2,610x vs ETH ~ 223x suggests BTC’s premium is monetary. A sharp slowdown in ETF demand or fee deterioration would argue for a lower share-of-gold assumption. (cryptofees.info)

Sensitivity

• Gold −10% cuts target by ~€9k.
• ETF inflows −50% lowers share-of-gold assumption to ~50%, target ~€128k.
• EURUSD to 1.10 lifts EUR target because USD price unchanged converts at a stronger EUR. FX sensitivity in Appendix. (European Central Bank)

7) Key Risks

1. ETF flow reversal
   • Risk that US ETF net inflows stall or reverse if macro conditions shift or risk appetite fades. Flow trackers show lumpy behavior. A multi-week outflow sequence could pressure price. (Farside)
2. Regulatory tightening in EU application of MiCA
   • ESMA has warned CASPs on misleading marketing and is refining supervisory practices. More assertive enforcement could slow institutional onboarding. (Reuters)
3. Fee weakness vs security budget
   • Post-halving fees remain modest relative to market cap. If fees fall further, long-run security funding may rely on high price or side payments. Recent research highlighted fee softness into mid-2025. (cryptofees.info)
4. Energy and ESG pushback
   • Bitcoin’s electricity consumption is debated; CBECI is the benchmark monitor. Negative headlines or local restrictions can hurt sentiment. (ccaf.io)
5. Macro shock
   • Higher real yields or stronger USD could compress store-of-value valuations. Gold context supports the narrative now, but correlation regimes can change. (Reuters)
6. Technology or governance risks
   • Unexpected protocol bugs, miner centralization, or the rise of alternative settlement layers could dilute BTC’s premium. DATA NEEDED on updated miner concentration metrics. Suggested source: Coin Metrics/Glassnode.

8) Appendix

A) Expanded model tables

A1) 12-month Base model detail (Oct 2025 to Oct 2026)

• Supply: start 19.929M BTC + 164k issuance = 20.093M. (MacroMicro)
• ETF cumulative add: assume $200M/day Oct–Dec then $75M/day 2026 average → $23B in 4Q25 plus $27B in 2026 by Oct, gross flows $50B. At $140k average price, implied net absorbed ~357k BTC vs 164k new issuance. Flows exceed new supply. SOURCES for recent flow trend: Farside, The Block. (Farside)
• Fees: 2025 baseline $0.94B annual run-rate. 2026 Base $1.08B (+15%). (cryptofees.info)
• Valuation: share-of-gold = 55% of $6.05T investable stock = $3.33T MC. With 20.093M supply → $165.7k. EUR at 1.1734 = €141k. (World Gold Council)

A2) Bull and Bear

• Bull: higher share of investable gold 70% and stronger fees +40% → $211k or €180k.
• Bear: 40% share with flat fees → $121k or €103k.

A3) FX sensitivity

• Spot 1.1734. If EURUSD = 1.10, a $165.7k USD target becomes €150.6k. If 1.25, it becomes €132.6k. (European Central Bank)

B) Methodology: Factor profile

We compute a 0–100 percentile score for each factor relative to BTC, ETH, SOL, and Gold:

• Growth: 40% weight to active addresses 6-month delta, 40% to 6-month on-chain settlement value trend, 20% to fees trend. Sources: Bitinfocharts, Blockchain.com, CryptoFees. (BitInfoCharts)
• Returns: 60% 12-month EUR total return, 40% 6-month EUR total return. Sources: Yahoo/Google Finance, CoinMarketCap. (Google)
• Multiple: inverse percentile of NVT and P/F vs own 3-year range. Sources: Blockchain.com NVT, CryptoFees, YCharts/market caps. (Blockchain)
• Integrated: composite of the above.

C) Data dictionary and suggested fills where “DATA NEEDED”

• SOL market cap, issuance rate, and active addresses: CoinGecko and Solana docs. (CoinGecko)
• BTC 30-day realized volatility: The Block volatility dashboard. (The Block)
• BTC EUR historical series: Investing.com BTC/EUR Kraken history. (Investing.com)

D) Additional context snippets

• Halving timing: reward dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block on 19–20 Apr 2024. (Bitbo)
• Hashrate scale: recent daily average near 1.0 ZH/s, up y/y. (BitInfoCharts)
• Energy lens: CBECI is the industry benchmark monitor; EIA estimated Bitcoin mining at ~120 TWh point estimate for 2023, or ~0.2–0.9% of global electricity. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Compliance, conflicts, and methodology disclosures

This report is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It is not investment research and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The analysis uses publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified. Prices referenced are as of 3 Oct 2025 in Europe/Berlin time. Cryptoassets are volatile and can result in total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Assumptions, scenarios, and targets are illustrative and may change without notice. This is not accounting, legal, or tax advice.

Citations:
Spot price widget and BTC USD price data.
ECB EURUSD reference rate. (European Central Bank)
BTC circulating supply. (MacroMicro)
US spot ETF flows and holdings. (Farside)
BlackRock IBIT AUM. (BlackRock)
Halving facts. (Investopedia)
Crypto fees trackers. (cryptofees.info)
Bitinfocharts activity snapshots. (BitInfoCharts)
Hashrate public trackers. (BitInfoCharts)
Gold price context. (Reuters)
WGC above-ground stock. (World Gold Council)
MiCA timeline and guidance. (EY)
ETH market cap and price. (YCharts)
ETH and SOL EUR spot references. (CoinMarketCap)
Investing.com BTC-EUR history. (Investing.com)