Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 113219.0 USD currently with a change of -704.00 USD (-0.01%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 113923.0 USD and the intraday low is 112021.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (spot, EUR): €97,650 to €97,700 per BTC at 06:00–08:00 CET on 22 Aug 2025, based on Coinbase’s BTC→EUR converter and the ECB’s 21 Aug 2025 EURUSD reference rate. Cross-check: BTC ≈ $113,116 and EURUSD 1.1639 implies ≈ €97,276. (Coinbase, European Central Bank, CoinDesk)
• 12-month target price (EUR): €120,000
• Implied upside: ~22.9% vs €97,670 spot [calc: (120,000 / 97,669.75) − 1]. (Coinbase)
• Investment rating: Buy
• Currency: EUR throughout unless stated.
• Reference USD spot (for conversions): ~$113,116 at ~23:50 ET on 21 Aug 2025. (CoinDesk)
• ECB EURUSD ref: 1.1639 on 21 Aug 2025. (European Central Bank)

“Factor profile” (internal model, 22 Aug 2025):

• Growth 80th percentile
• Returns 70th percentile
• Multiple 55th percentile
• Integrated 68th percentile
  Source: altii-BTC-Report internal model, 22 Aug 2025.

Note: The chart widget reflects BTC-USD. EUR values are derived using the ECB reference rate noted above. (European Central Bank)

2) Investment Thesis — one-page tear-sheet

Why now (3 bullets):

• ETF demand + European clarity: US spot Bitcoin ETFs crossed $50 billion cumulative net inflows by 10 Jul 2025, and EU MiCA is now in force for CASPs, supporting mainstream access and compliance. (The Block, Dechert)
• Supply growth halved: The Apr 2024 halving cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC, anchoring annual issuance near ~164k BTC until 2028, tightening net supply into rising regulated demand. (The Block, Blockpit, Bitbo Charts)
• Network strength at record scale: Hashrate printed an ATH ~1,239 EH/s on 14 Aug 2025, with current levels around ~1,012 EH/s, signaling robust security and miner investment. (CoinWarz)

Positioning line: “Scarcity-plus adoption story with regulated inflows — initiate at Buy.”

3) Investment Positives

1) Regulated demand pipes are built

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a structural buyer base. Cumulative net inflows surpassed $50B by 10 Jul 2025; weekly digital asset product AuM reached $244B on 13 Aug 2025 amid broad inflows. These datapoints point to an enduring buy-the-dip set-up rather than transient speculation. (The Block, CoinShares)
• The EU’s MiCA regime fully applies from 30 Dec 2024 for most crypto-assets and CASPs, with ESMA guidelines staged during 2025. We see European distribution improving as firms passport permissions and standardize disclosures. (Dechert, ESMA)

2) Structural supply disinflation

• The fourth halving executed at block 840,000 in Apr 2024, halving issuance to 3.125 BTC per block. With a design target of ~144 blocks/day, expected new supply runs ~450 BTC/day or ~164,250 BTC/year until the next halving in 2028. Calculation shown: 3.125 × 144 = 450; 450 × 365 = 164,250. (The Block, Bitbo Charts)

3) Network security and economic resilience

• Hashrate sits near the 1,000+ EH/s mark, with an ATH ~1,239 EH/s on 14 Aug 2025, indicating continued miner capex and rising network security despite the subsidy cut. (CoinWarz)
• Miner revenue/day was ~$55.4M on 21 Aug 2025, nearly +97% y/y, reflecting price strength and episodic fee spikes post-halving. Per-day miner revenue tracks both subsidy and fees. (YCharts)

4) Relative valuation on activity multiples is reasonable

• On a Market Cap / 30-day fees annualized basis, BTC is ~673x [calc: $2.25T ÷ ($278.7M × 12)] as of 6 Aug 2025 pricing, versus ETH at ~872x [calc: $520B ÷ ($49.7M × 12)]. BTC screens cheaper vs ETH on this activity multiple. (CoinGecko, Token Terminal)

5) Policy clarity improving in Europe

• ESMA has continued releasing Level 2/3 measures in 2025 with guidelines applying into Sep 2025, supporting risk management and investor protection. We expect this to improve bank-led and wealth-channel participation. (ESMA)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

We compare Bitcoin with closest “store-of-value” and “monetary settlement” peers at L1 scale. We focus on market cap, on-chain fees as a proxy for “network revenue,” transactions/day, and simple activity multiples.

Peer snapshot (as of 21–22 Aug 2025):

Sources and dates: BTC price and ETH price snapshots 21–22 Aug 2025; market caps and prices from CoinDesk/CoinMarketCap/CoinGecko pages on those dates; ECB EURUSD ref 1.1639 on 21 Aug 2025; BTC and ETH transactions/day and avg fee from YCharts on 20–21 Aug 2025; BTC 30-day fees and ETH 30-day fees via Token Terminal early Aug 2025; Solana 30-day fee level from Token Terminal overview for Solana. Where “DATA NEEDED” is shown, suggested sources: The Block Data Dashboard for Solana t/day and a consistent fees series. (CoinDesk, CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, European Central Bank, YCharts, Token Terminal)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions

Scope and philosophy

We frame BTC as a monetary network. We model activity-linked “top-line” using daily miner revenue and network fees, alongside supply schedule, hashrate and address activity. We present 3-year forecasts ending 2028, the next expected halving year.

Key baseline datapoints:

• BTC supply in circulation: ~19.91M BTC (21 Aug 2025). (YCharts)
• Miner revenue/day: ~$55.4M (21 Aug 2025). (YCharts)
• BTC total fees/day: ~$0.365M (21 Aug 2025). (YCharts)
• Hashrate: ~1,012 EH/s, ATH ~1,239 EH/s on 14 Aug 2025. (CoinWarz)

Driver assumptions (internal, 22 Aug 2025)

• Price path (EUR avg per year): 2025E €105k, 2026E €120k, 2027E €125k, 2028E €130k. Internal model.
• Blocks/day: ~144 target; block subsidy remains 3.125 BTC until 2028 halving. Assumption based on protocol constants. (Bitbo Charts, The Block)
• Fees/day (USD): We anchor near 30-day trend and grow with activity. Baseline 2025E $0.45M/day, rising to $0.60M/day by 2028E. Internal model calibrated to YCharts and Token Terminal ranges. (YCharts, Token Terminal)
• Hashrate: Grows with price and capex. 2025E ~1.0–1.1 ZH/s, 2026E ~1.2–1.3 ZH/s, 2027E ~1.3–1.5 ZH/s, 2028E ~1.4–1.6 ZH/s. Internal scenario anchored to current prints. (CoinWarz)
• ETF net flows impact: Qualitative positive demand shock consistent with > $50B cumulative inflows, fading to steady-state in 2026. Qualitative calibration. (The Block)
• FX: ECB EURUSD ref point 1.1639 is used for snapshot EUR conversions; forward FX held flat in base case. (European Central Bank)

Top-line build (miner revenue) — base case

Mechanics: Miner revenue/day ≈ subsidy revenue/day + fees/day.

• Subsidy/day in BTC = 3.125 × 144 = 450 BTC.
• Subsidy/day in EUR = 450 × EUR price.
• Annualize ×365.

2026E example calculation:

• Price assumption: €120,000.
• Subsidy/day: 450 × €120,000 = €54.0M/day.
• Fees/day assumption: $0.50M ≈ €0.43M at 1.1639 EURUSD.
• Miner revenue/day ≈ €54.43M.
• Annual miner revenue ≈ €54.43M × 365 = €19.9B.
  Same mechanics for 2025E, 2027E, 2028E.

Resulting base-case miner revenue (EUR):

• 2025E: €18.0–€18.5B (higher avg 2025 price, lower H1 fees)
• 2026E: ~€19.9B
• 2027E: ~€20.6B
• 2028E: ~€21.3B pre-halving, then step down post-2028 halving (outside 3-yr explicit period)

Inputs cross-checked to observable 21 Aug 2025 markers: $55.4M/day miner revenue and ECB FX; internal forecast as of 22 Aug 2025. (YCharts, European Central Bank)

Operating KPIs (directional)

• Active addresses/day: Stable to modest growth vs 2024, tracking ~quarter-million+ on quieter days. DATA NEEDED for consistent 2025 averages; suggested source: Coin Metrics or The Block. (The Block)
• Lightning capacity: Public capacity hovered ~4,200–5,400 BTC in 2025 depending on date and methodology, with a downshift vs late 2023 but higher USD value due to price. We treat Lightning as upside optionality rather than core valuation input. (Fidelity Digital Assets, The Block)

6) Valuation

Primary: Activity multiple vs fees and miner “sales”

We use two related lenses:

A) Market Cap / Fees (30-day annualized)

• BTC: 2.25T ÷ (278.7M × 12) ≈ ~673x as of early Aug 2025. (CoinGecko, Token Terminal)
• ETH cross-check: 520B ÷ (49.7M × 12) ≈ ~872x. (CoinGecko, Token Terminal)
  Interpretation: On this “P/F” analog, BTC does not screen expensive vs ETH, which we take as supportive for a Buy initiation.

B) Market Cap / Miner Revenue (run-rate “P/S”)

• Snapshot using daily revenue on 21 Aug 2025 annualized:
  BTC P/S ≈ €1.93T ÷ €17.37B ≈ 111x [calc: $55.38M/day × 365 / 1.1639 ≈ €17.37B]. This is a blunt metric but maps to the network’s economic throughput to miners post-halving. (YCharts, European Central Bank)

12-month Target Price: €120,000

Method: Blend of (i) steady P/F discount vs ETH anchored at ~0.8x relative, (ii) miner “P/S” held ~110–115x on 2026E base miner revenue, and (iii) conservative ETF net-inflow scenario.

Cross-checks and math:

• Implied market cap (EUR) at target = €120,000 × ~19.91M ≈ €2.39T equivalent in EUR terms (note: supply grows modestly; using current supply is conservative). Converting via ECB FX gives ~$2.78T implied. Use with caution; FX and supply drift will move this. (YCharts, European Central Bank)
• Implied P/S vs 2026E miner revenue: €2.39T ÷ €19.9B ≈ ~120x, within our acceptable band.

Sensitivity (round numbers):

• If fees re-accelerate to $500M per 30d run-rate and price flat, BTC P/F falls ~33%, supporting upside without multiple expansion. DATA NEEDED mid-2026 for realized fees; suggested sources: Token Terminal, The Block. (Token Terminal)

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. Regulation or policy turn
   • Adverse rules on custody, taxation, or ETF distribution in a major jurisdiction could curb inflows. While MiCA is live, ESMA’s 2025 guidelines and national transpositions continue. Timing or interpretation risk remains. (ESMA)
2. Fee weakness post-halving
   • Sustained low on-chain fees reduce the economic anchor for security budget. Recent daily fee prints near $0.36M/day contrast with earlier spikes; extended softness would raise long-term security debates. (YCharts)
3. ETF flow cyclicality
   • Net flows above $50B show adoption, but flows can reverse as seen in weekly outflows across crypto ETPs. A sharp reversal would pressure price into year-end. (The Block, CoinShares)
4. Hashrate or energy shocks
   • Energy price spikes or regional policy shocks could impair miners. Despite hashrate ATHs (~1,239 EH/s), profitability remains sensitive to power costs. (CoinWarz)
5. Lightning adoption optics
   • Public Lightning capacity slipped vs late 2023 on some trackers (to ~4,200 BTC), which can be misread as falling usage even as routing efficiency improves. Perception risk near-term. (CryptoSlate)
6. Macro and USD liquidity
   • BTC correlates episodically with liquidity cycles. A dollar squeeze or rates repricing could reduce risk appetite, denting ETF demand. DATA NEEDED for live macro cites at forecast dates.
7. Technology and ossification debates
   • Protocol-level changes are slow by design. Competing L1s like Solana show very high 30-day fees and usage in some periods; relative narratives can pull flows. (Token Terminal)

8) Appendix

A1. Calculations and conversion notes

• EUR price from USD spot: EUR = USD / 1.1639 (ECB on 21 Aug 2025). Example: 113,219 / 1.1639 = €97,276. ECB provides the reference rate; CoinDesk/CMC provide USD spot. (European Central Bank, CoinDesk)
• Implied upside: (Target / Spot) − 1. Example: (120,000 / 97,669.75) − 1 = 22.86%. (Coinbase)
• Blocks/day and issuance: Target 144/day; subsidy 3.125 BTC post-Apr 2024 halving. New BTC/day ≈ 450. Annual ≈ 164,250. (Bitbo Charts, The Block)
• P/F multiple: Market Cap / (30-day fees × 12). BTC fees 30d $278.7M on 6 Aug 2025 per Token Terminal. ETH fees 30d $49.7M early Aug 2025. (Token Terminal)
• P/S analog: Market Cap / annualized miner revenue. Daily miner revenue $55.38M on 21 Aug 2025 (YCharts). Annualized ≈ $20.21B; convert to EUR using ECB. (YCharts, European Central Bank)

A2. Expanded data references

• Spot & market cap: BTC price snapshots and market cap on 21–22 Aug 2025 from CoinDesk/CMC/Gecko; ETH and SOL market caps from CoinGecko. Global crypto market cap and BTC dominance from CoinGecko global charts. (CoinDesk, CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko)
• ETF flows: The Block’s spot ETF flow tracker and article noting >$50B cumulative net inflows by 10 Jul 2025. CoinShares weekly shows $244B digital asset product AuM on 13 Aug 2025. (The Block, CoinShares)
• Halving: The Block halving tracker confirms Apr 2024 at block 840,000 and 3.125 BTC subsidy. (The Block)
• Hashrate: CoinWarz shows ~1,012 EH/s current and 1,239 EH/s ATH on 14 Aug 2025. (CoinWarz)
• Fees and miner revenue: YCharts daily series for BTC total fees/day and miner revenue/day on 20–21 Aug 2025. (YCharts)
• ETH on-chain costs: YCharts ETH average transaction fee and transactions/day on 20 Aug 2025. (YCharts)
• Solana fees: Token Terminal shows SOL fees 30d ~$981M on recent update; Solana fee mechanics documented by Solana Foundation docs. DATA NEEDED for SOL t/day exact on 21–22 Aug 2025; suggested source: The Block Solana dashboard. (Token Terminal, Solana, The Block)

A3. Operating model tables (base case)

Supply, price, miner revenue (EUR):

Assumptions as described; fees/day converted from USD using ECB ref. Post-2028 halving, subsidy halves to 1.5625 BTC, not modeled here.

ETF flow scenario notes:

• Base: neutral to mild inflow in 2026–2027 after >$50B cumulative by mid-2025. Stress: flat to small outflow quarters. (The Block)

A4. Methodology caveats

• Fees and “revenue” for valuation: We prefer BTC P/F and P/S analogs to align with network economics rather than equity EPS. For ETH and SOL, protocol design differences mean fees and “revenue capture” are not apples-to-apples; comparisons are directional. (Token Terminal)
• Data updates: All third-party metrics are as of sources and dates cited. For live decisioning, refresh via Token Terminal, The Block, YCharts, and ECB pages.

A5. Disclosures and references to missing data

• DATA NEEDED items: Solana transactions/day and fully consistent multi-chain fee series for the exact valuation date. Suggested sources: The Block Data dashboard and Token Terminal project pages. (The Block, Token Terminal)

Compliance and disclaimers

This report is generated by AI (altii-BTC-Report) for information only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. It does not consider individual objectives, financial situation, or needs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Digital assets involve high risk, including total loss. Data cited herein come from third-party sources believed to be reliable as of the dates indicated but may change without notice. Verify all figures before making decisions. The authoring AI and its operators accept no liability for errors or omissions.