Bitcoin (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage
1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot
- Coverage: Bitcoin priced in Euro (BTC_EUR)
- Current spot: €95,857 per BTC, 25 Aug 2025.
- Circulating supply: 19,911,359 BTC, 25 Aug 2025.
- Market cap (EUR): ~€1.91T today. Cross-check: $2.23T USD market cap converted at ECB EURUSD 1.1697 gives ~€1.91T, 25 Aug 2025.
- 12-month target price (TP): €122,800
- Implied 12-month upside: ~28% vs. spot (€122,800 ÷ €95,857 − 1).
- Rating: Buy
How we derive TP
Primary valuation uses MVRV style multiple applied to realized market cap: we model realized cap at $1.1T by Aug 2026 (assumption) and apply a target MVRV of 2.6x. Converting via ECB rate 1.1697 USD per EUR yields an implied €2.45T market cap and €122.8k per BTC using current circulating supply of 19.91M. Calculations shown in Section 6.
Factor “Profile” (percentiles vs. our digital assets coverage universe)
- Growth: 70
- Returns: 65
- Multiple: 45
- Integrated: 65
Method: composite of realized-cap growth, 12-month performance, valuation vs. activity metrics, and institutional penetration. Inputs include CoinShares weekly ETP flows, US spot ETF flow trackers, and Glassnode realized cap context; scoring is our judgment as of 25 Aug 2025.
12-month price chart: See interactive chart above. Note: the widget displays USD by default; all text figures in this report are in EUR unless stated.
2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)
Why now (3 bullets)
- Europe’s rulebook is live: MiCA’s CASP provisions apply since 30 Dec 2024 with transitional grandfathering up to 1 Jul 2026, clarifying licensing, conduct and stablecoin regimes in the EU. This lowers distribution frictions for Euro investors.
- Institutional rails are in place: US spot Bitcoin ETFs show large cumulative flows despite recent outflow days, supporting the structural bid and market maturity. Europe’s ETP shelf is expanding, including the iShares Bitcoin ETP launch in 2025.
- Post-halving economics are stable: Subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block in Apr 2024; network security remains underpinned by record hashrate in 2025, even as fees softened after the spring “Runes” spike.
Positioning line
“Macro-hard-asset with institutional rails and EU clarity; we initiate at Buy.”
3) Investment Positives
- Regulatory clarity in Europe improves access and lowers distribution risk
- CASP rules under MiCA have applied since 30 Dec 2024; existing providers can operate up to 18 months during authorization transitions, enabling continuity while licenses are processed.
- ESMA and EBA published final rules and guidance in 2025, including knowledge and competence guidelines and stablecoin supervision materials, giving firms an implementable framework.
- Implication: EU brokers and private banks can more confidently list BTC ETPs for client portfolios. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETP launched across EU venues in Mar 2025, reflecting this distribution momentum.
- Institutional participation and liquidity depth
- CoinShares reports an all-time-high weekly inflow of $4.39B into digital asset funds in Jul 2025, with YTD inflows at $27B and record AuM of $220B. While ETH led that week, Bitcoin remains the liquidity anchor.
- US spot Bitcoin ETF flow trackers show fluctuation around mid-Aug but continue to reflect a deep, scalable vehicle set. Investors should treat series of outflow days as market noise inside a longer structural adoption curve.
- Network resilience at scale
- Hashrate touched ~976 EH/s on 25 Aug 2025, near record territory, indicating strong miner investment and security budget even post-halving.
- The network settled ~$19T in 2024, more than double 2023, signaling sustained settlement demand through the cycle. This is a volatile series and should be interpreted as activity capacity rather than cash flow.
- “Hard-asset” narrative vs. fiat and gold
- With a fixed terminal supply of 21M and ~19.9M in circulation already, Bitcoin’s stock-flow profile is well understood. Gold’s market value is estimated around $23T, providing an upper-bound store-of-value analogue.
- ECB reference rate today is EUR 1 = USD 1.1697, supporting clean USD-EUR cross-checks throughout this report.
- Tightening integration across product shelves
- European exchanges list multiple physically backed ETPs from 21Shares, VanEck, CoinShares, WisdomTree and BlackRock, with TERs converging to 0.15–1.00%, improving investor net performance.
4) Competitive / Peer Analysis
Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Gold.
| KPI (25 Aug 2025 unless noted) | Bitcoin | Ethereum | Solana | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (EUR) | €95,857 | €3,972 | €169 | n.a. |
| Market cap (EUR) | ~€1.91T | ~€513B (≈ $600B / 1.1697) | ~€98–105B (range) | ~€19.6T (=$22.95T/1.1697) |
| 7-day avg daily fees (USD) | ~$2.35M | ~$5.40M | varies, very low vs L1s | n.a. |
| Annualized fees (EUR) | ~€734M | ~€1.68B | DATA NEEDED | n.a. |
| 2024 on-chain settlement (USD) | ~$19T | DATA NEEDED | n.a. | n.a. |
| Hashrate / security | ~976 EH/s | PoS (n.a.) | PoS (n.a.) | n.a. |
Sources and notes:
- BTC price EUR and market cap EUR: CoinGecko snapshot, 25 Aug 2025; cross-checked by USD market cap and ECB EURUSD.
- ETH price EUR: CoinGecko; market cap near-$600B reported 24 Aug 2025; converted to EUR at ECB rate.
- SOL price EUR and market cap range: CoinGecko pages around time of writing.
- Gold market cap: CompaniesMarketCap spot.
- Fees: CryptoFees.info daily values 25 Aug 2025. BTC daily fees annualized and converted to EUR using ECB rate. ETH same approach.
- Hashrate: CoinWarz explorer reading for 25 Aug 2025.
Observations
- BTC’s price-to-fees style multiple is naturally high because fees are not the primary value accrual. ETH’s fee base is structurally larger due to smart-contract usage. Bitcoin’s thesis rests on security, scarcity and settlement demand rather than fee capture.
- Gold’s market value offers a long-run reference for store-of-value appetite across cycles.
5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions
Framework
We do not forecast revenue or earnings because Bitcoin is not an operating company. We model network activity and security budget as the economic “top line” proxies that inform valuation multiples.
Key operating KPIs and drivers
- Circulating supply path:
Post-2024 halving, subsidy = 3.125 BTC per block. At ~144 blocks/day, annual coin issuance ≈ 450 BTC/day × 365 = 164,250 BTC/year through 2027. - Hashrate and security:
We anchor 2025E average hashrate near current ~976 EH/s and assume a moderated growth trajectory as ASIC efficiency gains meet power constraints. 2026E 1,050 EH/s, 2027E 1,150 EH/s are our base-case estimates. DATA NEEDED to cross-check with Luxor Hashrate Index forecasts. - On-chain settlement volume (USD):
2024 actual reported ~$19T. We assume +12% CAGR on a smoother cycle path as ETF penetration and MiCA-enabled EU distribution deepen. Base case: 2025E $21.3T, 2026E $23.9T, 2027E $26.8T. Source for 2024 level; forward path is our estimate. - Fees:
Daily network fees currently around $2.35M 7-day average. Converted to EUR today (~€2.01M/day) and annualized ≈ €734M. We model fees scaling with activity and blockspace demand normalization after Runes launch, yielding 2025E €0.9B, 2026E €1.2B, 2027E €1.6B. Actual outcomes will vary with mempool pressure and L2 adoption. - Lightning Network:
Public capacity rebounded in mid-2025 to approximately ~4,000 BTC after a 2024 drawdown, per multiple trackers. We treat this as optionality on micro-payments and merchant rails rather than a core model driver.
Price path assumptions (EUR)
We present illustrative average-price scenarios for the security budget math only.
- 2025E avg: €100k
- 2026E avg: €115k
- 2027E avg: €130k
Security budget math (EUR)
- Subsidy revenue = issued BTC × average price.
- 2025E: 164,250 × €100k = €16.4B
- 2026E: 164,250 × €115k = €18.9B
- 2027E: 164,250 × €130k = €21.4B
- Total miner revenue ≈ subsidy + fees
- 2025E: €17.3B (incl. €0.9B fees)
- 2026E: €20.1B
- 2027E: €23.0B
Cross-checks
- Luxor’s hashprice series indicates USD revenue per PH/s/day in mid-2025 consistent with our subsidy-driven totals when mapped to projected hashrate.
6) Valuation
Primary method: Network activity multiple
We use MVRV style normalization, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap. This is the closest analogue to a fundamentals-anchored multiple given a bearer asset.
- Observed: Glassnode reported realized cap > $1T on 23 Jul 2025. Spot market cap today is about $2.23T, implying an observed MVRV ~2.2x.
- Target: assume realized cap grows to $1.1T by Aug 2026 as ETFs and EU access broaden. Apply a target MVRV 2.6x, consistent with mid-cycle, below peak extremes. This implies $2.86T market cap. Convert at ECB 1.1697: €2.45T. With 19.91M circulating supply, TP = €122.8k. Steps:
- € realized cap = $1.1T × 0.85492 = €0.94T.
- € target cap = 2.6 × €0.94T = €2.45T.
- Price = €2.45T ÷ 19.911M = €122.8k.
Cross-checks
- NVT rough cut: Using 2024 settlement $19T, daily avg ≈ $52B. With spot market cap $2.23T, a simple cap/avg-daily-settlement proxy yields mid-cycle ratios consistent with our MVRV-based fair-value band. Activity series are volatile, so we keep NVT as qualitative corroboration.
- Price-to-fees sanity check**: BTC’s annualized fees ~€0.73B at today’s run-rate against €1.91T market cap implies a very high “P/Fee”. ETH’s higher fee base produces a much lower multiple. Bitcoin is not valued on fees; this check simply highlights model differences across assets.
Valuation output
- 12-month TP: €122,800
- Implied upside: ~28% vs. €95,857 spot.
7) Key Risks
Ranked by probability × impact.
- Regulatory and policy shifts in EU
- ESMA or national competent authorities could tighten interpretations around CASP licensing, marketing or product eligibility, delaying distribution. MiCA is live and detailed, but implementation risk remains.
- ETF flow reversal
- US spot ETFs saw several large outflow days in mid-Aug 2025. If outflows persist while secondary supply rises, price support could weaken in the 3–6 month window.
- Security-budget softness
- Fees normalized sharply lower after the halving and Runes “mint week.” If fees stay depressed and price retraces, miner economics could tighten despite high hashrate, potentially affecting network dynamics.
- Macro correlation and FX
- Correlations with risk assets have fluctuated in 2025, and EURUSD moves impact EUR returns. ECB reference today is 1.1697 USD per EUR; a stronger EUR lowers EUR-translated USD gains.
- Energy and ESG
- Estimates of Bitcoin electricity demand vary widely. Cambridge’s CBECI provides a widely used baseline, while other trackers show higher figures. Adverse policy responses to energy usage remain a tail risk for miners and sentiment.
- Technology and competition
- Alternative payment and settlement networks, L2 scaling paths, or stablecoin rails may capture settlement share. BIS research shows cross-border flows shifting toward stablecoins over time.
8) Appendix
A) Expanded model tables (EUR, unless stated)
A1. Activity and security budget
| Year | Avg price (assumption) | Issuance (BTC) | Subsidy revenue | Fees revenue | Total miner revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025E | €100,000 | 164,250 | €16.4B | €0.9B | €17.3B |
| 2026E | €115,000 | 164,250 | €18.9B | €1.2B | €20.1B |
| 2027E | €130,000 | 164,250 | €21.4B | €1.6B | €23.0B |
Notes: issuance math from 3.125 BTC per block and 144 blocks/day. Fees path is our modeled normalization from CryptoFees current run rate.
A2. Settlement-volume path (USD)
| Year | Base | Growth | Est. settlement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | $19.0T | n.a. | $19.0T |
| 2025E | $19.0T | +12% | $21.3T |
| 2026E | $21.3T | +12% | $23.9T |
| 2027E | $23.9T | +12% | $26.8T |
2024 level per media citing Coin Metrics and Glassnode analytics; forward figures are our assumptions.
A3. Valuation walkthrough
- ECB rate today: 1 EUR = 1.1697 USD.
- Realized cap base: >$1.0T on 23 Jul 2025. We set $1.1T for Aug-2026.
- Target MVRV: 2.6x (historical mid-cycle band by our judgment).
- Target market cap EUR: $1.1T × 0.85492 × 2.6 = €2.45T.
- Supply: 19,911,359 BTC.
- TP: €2.45T ÷ 19.911M = €122,800.
A4. Additional reference datapoints
- US spot ETF flows: daily series with large negatives on 19–22 Aug 2025. See Farside trackers and Bitbo consolidated table.
- Lightning capacity: ~3.8–4.2k BTC reported around Jul–Aug 2025.
- Runes effect on fees: fees spiked around halving week then normalized.
A5. Data gaps and suggested sources
- BTC EUR 90-day realized volatility: DATA NEEDED. Suggested source: Kaiko or Coin Metrics.
- Ethereum and Solana settlement volumes: DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro, The Block Data.
- Updated EU ETP AUM by product: DATA NEEDED. Suggested: provider fact sheets (21Shares, CoinShares, VanEck, WisdomTree) and JustETF screeners.
Disclosures, sources and compliance language
Core sources
- Prices, supply, market cap: CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko pages accessed 25 Aug 2025.
- ECB EURUSD reference rate: 25 Aug 2025.
- Hashrate: CoinWarz stat at block 911,643, 25 Aug 2025.
- Fees: CryptoFees.info 25 Aug 2025 snapshot.
- Realized cap > $1T: Glassnode Studio note 23 Jul 2025.
- 2024 settlement volume: Cointelegraph summary 4 Jan 2025.
- MiCA implementation timeline and guidance: ESMA/EBA, AMF, and ESMA final guidelines 2024–2025.
- EU ETP landscape: Reuters on iShares Bitcoin ETP and provider sites.
- US ETF flows trackers: Farside and Bitbo consolidated table.
Important assumptions
All forward estimates are our own and not historical facts. Where we state DATA NEEDED, numbers were not reliably available at the time of writing.
Compliance
This report is generated by AI for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. It may contain errors, omissions, or outdated information. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors and the platform assume no liability for investment decisions made based on this document.