altii-BTC-Report: Initiation of Coverage — Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR)

Date: 27 Aug 2025 | Analyst: altii-BTC-Report | Coverage: New

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 110542.0 USD currently with a change of 494.00 USD (0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 112346.0 USD and the intraday low is 109493.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

Ticker/Pair: BTC_EUR
Current price (spot): €95,522 per BTC, 08:10:58 UTC on 27 Aug 2025. Source: Google Finance BTC/EUR.
12-m high / low (USD reference): All-time high about $123,153 on 14 Jul 2025. Source: Reuters. (Reuters)
Circulating supply: ~19.91 million BTC. Source: CoinMarketCap, 24–27 Aug 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
Float dilution: Post-halving block subsidy 3.125 BTC every ~10 minutes, ≈450 BTC/day. Sources: Blockworks, Kraken Learn. Calc: 3.125 × 144 ≈ 450. (Blockworks, Kraken)

12-month Target price (EUR): €129,000
Implied 12-m upside: ~35.1% versus €95,522. Calc: 129,000 ÷ 95,522 = 1.3505 → 35.05%.

Investment Rating: Buy

Fair-value framework (primary): Market Value / Realized Cap multiple (MVRV) applied to a realized cap base with growth (see Valuation). Supporting cross-checks: supply–demand absorption by spot ETFs, cycle context via Glassnode thresholds. (docs.glassnode.com)

“Factor profile” (model-based, 0–100; peer set BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold; methodology in Appendix):
• Growth: 82 (ETF AUM growth, realized cap breakout) (CoinDesk, The Block)
• Returns: 68 (12-m absolute in EUR; USD ATH; cycle context) (Reuters)
• Multiple: 58 (MVRV below euphoria thresholds) (docs.glassnode.com)
• Integrated percentile: 71 (z-score composite; see Appendix)

12-month price chart (USD reference): embedded above for BTC (USD). Data widget: real-time crypto quote.

2) Investment Thesis (One-page tear-sheet)

Positioning line: “Scarcity meets distribution. Initiate BTC_EUR at Buy with €129k 12-m target.”

Why now (3 bullets):

1. New buyer base with structural flows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold ~1.29 million BTC or ~6.15% of ultimate 21m cap, a sea-change in distribution and custody. Source: Bitbo ETF tracker, 26 Aug 2025. (Bitbo)
2. Halved new supply: Block reward cut to 3.125 BTC on 20 Apr 2024 reduces miner issuance to ~450 BTC/day; issuance rate now ≈0.8–0.9% annualized vs prior ~1.7%. Sources: Kraken Learn; Blockworks. Calc: 3.125×144=450; 450×365 ÷ 19.91m ≈ 0.825%. (Kraken, Blockworks)
3. EU regulatory clarity enables EUR flows: MiCA stablecoin rules applied 30 Jun 2024; broader CASP rules 30 Dec 2024; Level 2/3 measures progressing in 2025. Sources: AMF France; Walkers; ESMA tracker July 2025. (AMF France, walkersglobal.com, esma.europa.eu)

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF demand can exceed new supply
• US spot ETFs’ BTC holdings: ~1,291,528 BTC as of 26 Aug 2025, equal to ~6.15% of 21m. Source: Bitbo. (Bitbo)
• After halving, network issues ~450 BTC/day. Annual new coins ~164,250 BTC. If net ETF accumulation runs at even 15k BTC/month, that is ~180k BTC/year, outpacing new issuance. Calc: 15,000×12=180,000 > 164,250. Supply math from halving and CMC supply. (Blockworks, CoinMarketCap)
• Result: structurally tighter float and support to valuation multiple as ETF ecosystem broadens in Europe under MiCA. Regulatory timing sources as above. (AMF France, walkersglobal.com)

2) Realized cap milestone confirms deeper capital base
• Realized capitalization surpassed ~$1 trillion in July 2025, indicating higher aggregate cost basis and stickier capital. Source: CoinDesk, Jul 26 2025. (CoinDesk)
• Cycle context: Glassnode guidance suggests euphoria typically at MVRV > 3.5; current cycle has spent time lower. Source: Glassnode docs, Dec 2024. (docs.glassnode.com)

3) Security at record levels
• Hashrate near record levels through Aug 2025; daily prints around 900–1,000 EH/s+ and ATHs above 1 ZH/s reported mid-Aug. Sources: YCharts daily, CoinWarz. (YCharts, CoinWarz)
• Higher hashrate reinforces settlement assurances, supporting institutional adoption long term.

4) EU distribution tailwind under MiCA
• CASP requirements applicable 30 Dec 2024; stablecoin regimes from 30 Jun 2024; ongoing Level 2/3 RTS and guidance in 2025 help standardize passporting and disclosures across the bloc. Sources: Walkers; Squire Patton Boggs Aug 2025; ESMA L2/L3 table Jul 2025. (walkersglobal.com, Squire Patton Boggs, esma.europa.eu)

5) Macro backdrop
• ECB deposit facility rate ~2.00% as of 26 Aug 2025. Source: FRED series ECBDFR. Lower policy rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC and gold. (1ml.com)
• Gold strength underscores the bid for scarce assets. Spot gold near $3,338/oz on 21 Aug 2025. Source: Reuters. (Reuters)

4) Competitive / Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Gold (XAU). All converted to EUR at ECB reference ≈ 1 EUR = 1.1656 USD on 26 Aug 2025 for display consistency. Calc method in Appendix. (European Central Bank)

Sources and notes:
• BTC market cap snapshots: CMC 20 Aug 2025. EUR conversion at ECB ref 26 Aug 2025. (CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank)
• ETH live market cap range around $0.55T late Aug 2025. CMC; Axios for ATH confirmation. (CoinMarketCap, Axios)
• ETH staking yield ~3.0%: StakingRewards. SOL staking ~6.87%: StakingRewards. (Staking Rewards)
• Gold spot price reference: Reuters 21 Aug 2025. (Reuters)
• DATA NEEDED where marked: SOL market cap and issuance rate. Suggested sources: CoinMarketCap, Messari Pro, Solana Docs.

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions (3-year)

Framework: We model BTC’s investment demand via ETP/ETF holdings in BTC terms and valuation via MVRV on an expanding realized cap. We do not forecast “revenues.” Instead, we track top-line proxies: ETF holdings, realized cap, and hashrate.

Key Base Inputs

• Starting point (Aug 26–27, 2025):
– US spot ETFs hold ~1,291,528 BTC. Source: Bitbo tracker. (Bitbo)
– BTC_EUR spot: €95,522 per BTC. Source: Google Finance.
– Realized cap: crossed $1.0T in Jul 2025. Source: CoinDesk. (CoinDesk)
– BTC supply in float: ~19.91m. Source: CMC. (CoinMarketCap)
– EURUSD ref: 1.1656 USD per EUR (26 Aug 2025). Source: ECB. (European Central Bank)

Operating KPIs and Assumptions

A) ETF/ETP net accumulation (BTC):

• Base 12-m assumption: +15k BTC/month net across spot ETPs, tapering to +12k and +10k in Y2 and Y3 as market matures. Rationale: current US base, EU MiCA expansion, diminishing issuance. Sensitivity table in Appendix.
• Check vs issuance: ~164,250 BTC/year issuance; base inflow ~180k BTC/year outpaces issuance. Calc: 15k × 12 = 180k. Inputs above. (Blockworks, CoinMarketCap)

B) Realized cap growth:

• Base growth +15% next 12 months, +10% year 2, +7% year 3. Rationale: expanding holder base, higher aggregate cost basis, still below exuberance thresholds. Realized cap milestone source: CoinDesk. (CoinDesk)

C) Security and throughput:

• Hashrate assumed to trend with price and capex, base +20% YoY in Y1, +10% Y2, +8% Y3 from ~900–1,000 EH/s zone. Sources: YCharts daily prints; CoinWarz ATH context Aug 2025. (YCharts, CoinWarz)

D) EU distribution:

• MiCA contributes to product shelf expansion and passporting among CASPs, aiding EUR inflows over the period. Sources: AMF France; ESMA L2/L3 status; Walkers. (AMF France, esma.europa.eu, walkersglobal.com)

E) Macro:

• ECB DFR ~2.00% and easing bias intact into 2026 supports scarce assets. Source: FRED. (1ml.com)

3-Year Model (top-line proxies, base case)

¹Indicative current MVRV inferred from ~$2.28T market cap and ~$1.0T realized cap. Sources: CMC snapshot; CoinDesk. (CoinMarketCap, CoinDesk)

6) Valuation

Primary method: MVRV multiple on realized capitalization

Step 1: Baseline realized cap: $1.0T (Jul 2025). Source: CoinDesk. (CoinDesk)
Step 2: Forward realized cap growth: +15% → $1.15T in 12 months (assumption).
Step 3: Fair-value multiple: 2.6× MVRV, below Glassnode “euphoria” zones typically >3.5×, consistent with mid-cycle, strong-flow conditions. Source: Glassnode. (docs.glassnode.com)
Step 4: Target market cap (USD): $1.15T × 2.6 = $2.99T. Calculation shown above.
Step 5: Per-coin target (USD): $2.99T ÷ 19.912m coins ≈ $150,161. Supply source: CMC. (CoinMarketCap)
Step 6: Convert to EUR: $150,161 ÷ 1.1656 ≈ €128,827. ECB ref 26 Aug 2025. (European Central Bank)
Published 12-m EUR Target: €129,000 (rounded).

Cross-checks
• Cycle heat: MVRV “euphoria” guidance >3.5×. Our 2.6× is conservative. Source: Glassnode docs. (docs.glassnode.com)
• Supply–demand: Base ETF net adds ~180k BTC/yr vs ~164k BTC/yr issuance suggests continued float tightening. Inputs: Bitbo; halving; CMC supply. (Bitbo, Blockworks, CoinMarketCap)
• Regulatory distribution: MiCA live across EU, improving product shelf and passporting. Timing sources above. (AMF France, walkersglobal.com)

7) Key Risks

1) Regulatory and policy risk in EU and US
• MiCA application varies by member state’s supervision; ESMA Level 2/3 measures still being finalized through 2025 can alter compliance burdens. Sources: ESMA Jul 2025; Walkers Jan 2025. Biggest risk: product restrictions or marketing curbs shrink EU flows. (esma.europa.eu, walkersglobal.com)

2) ETF flow reversal
• US spot ETF complex owns ~1.29m BTC; outflows could pressure price and MVRV. Source: Bitbo. (Bitbo)

3) Macro and FX
• Stronger real yields or a sharp EUR surge vs USD lower the EUR target in translation. ECB DFR level used for context. (1ml.com)

4) Mining economics
• Difficulty/Hashrate at or near highs; hashprice around $60 per PH/s in Aug 2025, compressing less-efficient miners. Source: Yahoo Finance report referencing BlocksBridge, Aug 2025. (Yahoo Finance)

5) Network utilization and fee dynamics
• 2025 fee share of miner revenue has been low on most days (<~3%), indicating subdued on-chain fee pressure; weak fee markets could weigh on long-term security post-subsidy. Indicator sources: Bitbo fee share; media summaries. (Bitbo Charts, Bitcoin News)

6) Competitive assets
• ETH offers ~3% staking yield; SOL ~6–7%. Higher native yields can divert marginal flows. Source: StakingRewards. (Staking Rewards)

7) Data availability
• Some critical operating KPIs (monthly active addresses, Lightning capacity quality, EU retail channel mix) remain incomplete in public datasets. See DATA NEEDED flags below.

8) Appendix

A. Methodology details

Peer “factor profile”
• Growth: normalized blend of realized cap growth (CoinDesk), ETF AUM growth and holdings (Bitbo; The Block trackers), and ATH momentum (Reuters for BTC; Axios for ETH). (CoinDesk, Bitbo, The Block, Reuters, Axios)
• Returns: absolute 12-m EUR return using spot and ECB ref. (European Central Bank)
• Multiple: MVRV relative to Glassnode “euphoria” threshold bands. (docs.glassnode.com)
• Integrated percentile: z-score across the above; model-based, not a market statistic.

MVRV approach rationale
• Realized cap captures the aggregate cost basis; MVRV reflects aggregate unrealized P/L and cycle context. Thresholds per Glassnode research indicate overheating >3.5×. We set 12-m fair multiple 2.6× to reflect sustained but non-euphoric conditions. (docs.glassnode.com)

EUR conversions
• ECB euro reference: 1 EUR = 1.1656 USD (26 Aug 2025). All USD values to EUR divide by 1.1656 unless stated. (European Central Bank)

B. Calculations

Implied upside
• Upside = (Target − Spot) ÷ Spot. With Target €129,000 and Spot €95,522 → (129,000 − 95,522) ÷ 95,522 = 33,478 ÷ 95,522 = 35.05%.

Issuance
• 3.125 BTC/block × 144 blocks/day ≈ 450 BTC/day; annual ≈ 164,250 BTC. Inputs: halving reward; expected average block cadence ~10 minutes. Sources as above. (Blockworks, Kraken)

Target derivation
• Realized cap base $1.00T × 1.15 growth × 2.6 MVRV = $2.99T market cap. ÷ 19.912m coins = $150,161/BTC. ÷ 1.1656 = €128,827 → round €129,000. Sources: CoinDesk; CMC; ECB. (CoinDesk, CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank)

C. Expanded models (summaries)

ETF absorption scenarios (12 months)

Source for issuance and holdings: Bitbo; halving math; CMC. (Bitbo, Blockworks, CoinMarketCap)

MVRV sensitivity

Glassnode thresholds for context: euphoria typically >3.5×. (docs.glassnode.com)

D. On-chain and network KPIs (collection plan)

DATA NEEDED
• Monthly active addresses, non-zero balance addresses, entity-adjusted transfer volume, realized profits. Suggested sources: Glassnode Studio, Coin Metrics State of the Network. (Glassnode Studio, Coin Metrics)
• Lightning Network capacity and channel quality metrics at date (public capacity has fluctuated around ~4–5k BTC in 2025; direction mixed). Suggested sources: mempool.space Lightning, Bitcoin Visuals, The Block data. (Mempool.space, Bitcoin Visuals, The Block)
• EU crypto ETP AUM totals and flows beyond US. Suggested sources: CoinShares weekly flows; The Block trackers; ETFbook. (CoinShares, The Block, ETFbook)
• Energy and emissions: Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) for latest ranges. (docs.glassnode.com)

E. Risk disclosures and compliance

This report uses public sources believed reliable at the time of writing, including Google Finance for BTC_EUR spot on 27 Aug 2025; CoinMarketCap snapshots in Aug 2025; CoinDesk for realized cap in Jul 2025; Bitbo ETF tracker as of 26 Aug 2025; Reuters for price milestones; ECB reference rates as of 26 Aug 2025; Glassnode documentation for MVRV thresholds; and other cited items throughout. (CoinMarketCap, CoinDesk, Bitbo, Reuters, European Central Bank, docs.glassnode.com)

Standard Compliance Language

This research report is generated by AI and is for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, cryptoasset, or financial instrument. It does not account for your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Digital assets are highly volatile and can result in total loss. Do your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser. Sources cited were accessed on the dates indicated; accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.