Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Report date: 4 September 2025. Prices in EUR unless noted. Time zone: Europe/Berlin.

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 110788.0 USD currently with a change of -275.00 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 112519.0 USD and the intraday low is 110344.0 USD.

1. Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

Current price: €95,073 per BTC, converted from $110,788 BTCUSD as of ~11:00 CET on 4 Sep 2025, using the ECB euro reference rate EUR 1 = USD 1.1653 dated 3 Sep 2025. Calculation: 110,788 ÷ 1.1653 = 95,072.5. (European Central Bank)

Ticker: BTC_EUR
12-mo chart: see live chart above (BTC spot).

Target price (12-mo): €139,600
Implied upside: +46.8% vs €95,073. Calculation: (139,601 − 95,073) ÷ 95,073 = 46.84%. Method explained in Valuation. (European Central Bank)

Investment rating: Buy

Market cap: ~$2.2146T on 2 Sep 2025. In EUR at ECB ref rate: ~$2.2146T ÷ 1.1653 = €1.90T. Circulating supply ≈ 19.92M BTC. (CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank, YCharts)

Issuance: Block reward cut to 3.125 BTC on 20 Apr 2024 at block 840,000. Annual new supply ≈ 3.125 × 144 × 365 = 164,250 BTC, or ~0.83% supply growth at 19.92M BTC. (The Block, Investopedia, YCharts)

GS-style factor radar (our percentile view vs a broad digital-assets and SoV set)

• Growth: 80
• Returns: 75
• Multiple: 60
• Integrated: 72
  Note: internal analyst scoring framework, not a market statistic.

2. Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — 3 bullets

• ETF plumbing is now material. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs are established with continuing net inflow bursts and very large AUM at scale. Example: BlackRock’s IBIT AUM $83.7B as of 3 Sep 2025. Flows have re-accelerated in early September. (BlackRock, BlackRock, Farside, Decrypt)
• Post-halving supply sink. Issuance fell to ~0.83% annually after April 2024. Historically, halving cycles tightened supply into rising demand. (The Block, Investopedia)
• Europe’s rulebook is live. MiCA’s core regime applies from 30 Dec 2024 with stablecoin titles effective from 30 Jun 2024, improving institutional clarity across the EU. (AMF France, Norton Rose Fulbright, Finance)

Positioning line: Digital Store-of-Value leader — initiate at Buy.

3. Investment Positives

1) Institutional access scale-up via ETFs and ETPs

• IBIT net assets $83.7B on 3 Sep 2025, demonstrating persistent institutionalization. (BlackRock)
• Recent two-day U.S. spot ETF net inflows $633.3M marked the strongest since early August. (Decrypt)
• U.S. plus Europe ETP landscape continues to expand, including BlackRock’s European ETP listings in Mar 2025. (Reuters)
• Why it matters: fixed issuance meets regulated demand rails. Even modest incremental allocator adoption can move price given thin free float and constrained new supply.

2) Supply schedule credibility

• April 2024 halving executed at block 840,000, reward now 3.125 BTC per block, time-tested four-year cadence into next expected halving in 2028. (The Block, CoinWarz)
• Current annual issuance ≈ 164,250 BTC or ~0.83% of supply. Calculation above. (YCharts)
• Total possible coins capped at ~21M with end-issuance ~2140. Scarcity is codified. (Investopedia)

3) On-chain resilience post-halving

• Realized cap at ~$1.05T early Sep 2025, a new high, points to stronger cost basis and holder conviction despite spot drawdowns. MVRV around ~2.1x. (CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance)
• Hashrate all-time high noted at ~1,279 EH/s on 2 Sep 2025; current near ~953 EH/s. Security budget and miner investment remain robust. (CoinWarz)
• Average mining cost proxy ~$95.4k vs spot ~$111k suggests margin room for efficient operators and network security headroom. (MacroMicro)

4) Macro hedge coexistence with gold

• Gold’s above-ground stock is 212k–216k tonnes; market value currently **$24.2T** at $3,6k/oz price. BTC’s market cap **$2.21T** equals ~9% of gold’s. (World Gold Council, Companies Market Cap, CoinMarketCap)
• Thesis: as allocators diversify SoV exposures, BTC can modestly close the gap with gold’s share of global SoV assets.

5) Regulatory visibility in Europe

• MiCA fully applicable from 30 Dec 2024 for CASPs, with stablecoin provisions from 30 Jun 2024 and transitional regime to 1 Jul 2026 for incumbent providers. This reduces headline regulatory risk for EU-based institutions. (AMF France, Dechert)

6) Network activity and fees stabilizing

• Daily transactions recently around ~0.47–0.53M, fees per day fluctuating and spiking at ~$1.06M on 1 Sep 2025, with average fee ~$1.77 that day. Volatility indicates elastic blockspace demand. (YCharts)

4. Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold. We focus on scale, “monetary” dilution, usage and cost.

Sources: BTC and ETH market caps snapshot 2 Sep 2025; ECB ref for EUR conversion; BTC supply from YCharts; ETH supply from CMC snapshot; gold market cap and stock from World Gold Council and CompaniesMarketCap; flows and fees from YCharts and ultrasound.money. (CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank, YCharts, World Gold Council, Companies Market Cap)

5. Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Forecast horizon: FY2025E to FY2028E (rolling 12-mo windows starting 30 Sep 2025). We model BTC network “top-line” as miner revenue = block subsidy + transaction fees. These are not corporate revenues but reflect the native economy size that can be used for multiples cross-checks.

Baseline drivers

• Issuance: fixed schedule at 3.125 BTC/block through next halving (expected 2028). Annual new BTC ≈ 164,250 BTC. (The Block, CoinWarz)
• BTC price path (EUR): base case moves toward our 12-mo TP €139.6k, then grows mid-single digits thereafter as ETF adoption and EU rule clarity persist.
• Fees: assume mean-reverting fee intensity vs transactions with episodic spikes. We anchor 2025E run-rate around recent levels with scenario bands.

Network KPI assumptions

• Daily transactions: base 525k in 2025E, +5% CAGR to 2028E on continued inscriptions, L2 usage spillovers to L1 for settlement. DATA NEEDED: 2024–2025 realized monthly averages to refine CAGR. Sources: YCharts, Blockchain.com. (YCharts, Blockchain)
• Avg fee per tx (USD): base $1.50 2025E, rising to $2.25 by 2028E with congestion bursts. Recent datapoint $1.77 on 1 Sep 2025. (YCharts)
• Hashrate: base 900–1,100 EH/s range through 2026E, tapering growth as efficiency gains offset post-halving profitability. Recent current ~953 EH/s; ATH ~1,279 EH/s. (CoinWarz)

Miner “Top-line” model (illustrative)

All figures rounded; EUR conversion using ECB 3 Sep 2025 reference 1.1653 USD/EUR.

• 2025E
  • Subsidy BTC: 164,250
  • Price assumption avg: $120,000 (base), = €102,997
  • Subsidy revenue: 164,250 × €102,997 ≈ €16.9B
  • Fees: 525k tx/day × $1.50 × 365 = $287.4M = €246.6M
  • Total miner revenue 2025E: €17.1B
• 2026E
  • Avg BTC price $135,000 = €115,875
  • Subsidy revenue: ~€19.0B
  • Fees: assume +15% on 2025E = €283.6M
  • Total 2026E: €19.3B
• 2027E
  • Avg BTC price $145,000 = €124,429
  • Subsidy revenue: ~€20.5B
  • Fees: +10% = €311.9M
  • Total 2027E: €20.8B

Notes: Fees are volatile. Recent $1.06M/day indicates episodes far above base. Subsidy dominates until fee markets deepen. (YCharts)

Operating KPIs

• Active addresses: cyclical. DATA NEEDED: 12-mo average and standard deviation. Sources: Glassnode, The Block, BitInfoCharts. (Glassnode Studio, The Block, BitInfoCharts)
• Lightning capacity: approx 3.9k–4.2k BTC in Aug 2025, off highs. Interpreted as structural evolution, not necessarily demand loss. (CryptoSlate, Bitcoin News)

6. Valuation

Primary method: Store-of-Value share multiple vs gold

We treat the “TAM” for a non-sovereign store of value as global gold’s market value, currently ~$24.2T. BTC market cap is ~$2.21T or ~9% of gold’s value. Our 12-month target assumes BTC rises to 13.5% of gold’s market value as regulated vehicles broaden participation and MiCA reduces EU friction.

• Gold market value: $24.204T. (Companies Market Cap)
• Target BTC market share: 13.5% → implied BTC market cap $3.2405T.
• Circulating supply: 19.92M BTC. Implied BTCUSD = $3.2405T ÷ 19.92M = $162,678.
• EUR conversion at ECB reference 1.1653 USD/EUR: $162,678 ÷ 1.1653 = €139,602.
• 12-mo TP: €139,600.

Calculations reference: CoinMarketCap snapshot for supply and BTC market cap; ECB ref rate; CompaniesMarketCap gold market value. (CoinMarketCap, European Central Bank, Companies Market Cap)

Cross-checks

1. MVRV context

• Realized cap ~$1.05T, market cap ~$2.21T → MVRV ≈ 2.11x, well below historic overheating zones. Supports upside potential. (CoinDesk)

2. NVT / activity lens

• NVT is network value divided by on-chain transaction volume. Current readings are not in extreme overvaluation territory per public trackers. Use with caution due to L2 and exchange internalization. (charts.woobull.com, Bitbo Charts)

3. Market cap to fees

• Recent daily fees ~$1.06M annualized ≈ $0.39B. Cap/fees is very high and not directly comparable to corporate EV/Sales. It mainly shows BTC’s value is not driven by L1 fees today. (YCharts)

Sensitivity to gold and FX

• If gold rises to $4,000/oz and BTC holds a 12% share, implied BTCUSD ≈ $145.8k → €125k at 1.1653. If share reaches 15%, BTCUSD ≈ $180.8k → €155k. (Reuters)

Rating logic

• With the base case of share shift from ~9% to 13.5% and supportive flow plumbing, we see ~47% upside 12-mo. Risk adjusted, we initiate Buy.

7. Key Risks

We rank risks by probability × impact on our estimates.

1. Regulatory shock in major markets

• Examples: restrictive ETF rules, unfavorable stablecoin or exchange rules hampering fiat ramps. Europe’s MiCA reduces EU uncertainty, yet national transitions run into 2026. (Dechert)

2. ETF flow reversal

• U.S. spot ETFs are a key demand channel. Sustained outflows would break the stock-to-flow support we assume. Trackers show flows are volatile. (Farside)

3. Macro constraints and gold correlation

• If gold stalls or retraces after its breakout, our SoV share method could imply lower BTC fair value near term. Gold has rallied to >$3,500/oz recently, but scenarios vary. (The Guardian)

4. Mining economics post-halving

• If BTC price lags while hashrate remains high, miner stress could induce security or sell-pressure cycles. Current average production cost proxy ~$95k vs price ~$111k provides cushion but is not guaranteed. (MacroMicro)

5. On-chain fee and activity drought

• Low base-layer usage could cap fee growth, challenging fee-based valuation cross-checks. Recent daily fees are variable with spikes. (YCharts)

6. Competition from programmable assets

• Ethereum and others continue to evolve. If programmable SoV narratives capture allocators, BTC’s share gains vs gold may slow. DATA NEEDED: long-horizon allocator surveys. Sources: WGC, major custodians.

7. Energy and ESG overhang

• CBECI shows sizable energy footprint. ESG narratives can influence mandates. Cambridge updated methodology but debate persists. (CCAF, Cambridge Judge Business School)

8. Custody and key-loss risks

• Dormant and lost coins reduce float but also highlight irreversibility and operational risk. Estimates vary widely. (MarketWatch)

8. Appendix

A) Expanded valuation math

Base case

• Gold market cap: $24.204T. BTC target share 13.5% → $3.2405T.
• Supply: 19.92M BTC → $162,678 per BTC.
• FX: divide by 1.1653 USD/EUR → €139,602.
• Implied upside vs €95,073 spot: +46.84%.

Sensitivity

• If EUR strengthens to EURUSD 1.25 with same USD target, EUR target falls by ~6.8%. DATA NEEDED: FX forecast. Source: ECB.

B) Network model detail

Notes

• Fees start from recent datapoints: $1.06M/day (1 Sep 2025). Assumed mean-reversion. (YCharts)
• Transactions per day base 525k; average fee $1.50 baseline. Recent fee $1.77. (YCharts)

C) Cohort and holder structure observations

• Realized cap at record ~$1.05T implies higher cost basis and increased long-term holder conviction. MVRV ~2.1x is mid-cycle in prior analogs. (CoinDesk)
• Dormant whale activity has sporadically increased in 2025, which can create headlines but does not always lead to selling. (MarketWatch)
• Addresses with non-zero balance trend up over cycles. DATA NEEDED: current absolute count. Sources: Glassnode, Bitcoin Magazine Pro. (Glassnode Studio, Bitcoin Magazine Pro)

D) Regulatory appendix — EU MiCA quick card

• Stablecoin titles effective 30 Jun 2024.
• CASP regime applies 30 Dec 2024 with transitional up to 1 Jul 2026 for existing providers.
• Expect increased EU passporting and harmonized supervision. (AMF France, Dechert)

E) Environmental framing

• CBECI provides the key reference for electricity consumption, recently refined methodology. Estimates vary widely among sources; use CBECI for consistency. (CCAF, Cambridge Judge Business School)

F) Peer datasets and where to source missing items

• BTC daily active addresses: Glassnode, The Block. DATA NEEDED for 12-mo average. (Glassnode Studio, The Block)
• ETH validators and fees: beaconcha.in, ultrasound.money, Etherscan, YCharts. (YCharts)
• Gold above-ground stock and growth: World Gold Council datasets and primers. (World Gold Council)

Disclosures, methodology, and important notes

• Pricing and FX: BTCUSD spot from live market reference above; EUR conversions use ECB euro reference rate published 3 Sep 2025 unless noted. Real-time market prices may differ. (European Central Bank)
• Market cap and supply: CoinMarketCap 2 Sep 2025 historical snapshot. (CoinMarketCap)
• Halving schedule and supply cap: references from The Block, Investopedia. (The Block, Investopedia)
• On-chain activity: YCharts and Blockchain.com where cited. (YCharts, Blockchain)
• Hashrate: Coinwarz. (CoinWarz)
• ETF data: BlackRock IBIT product page; daily flow snapshots via Farside and media reports. (BlackRock, Farside)
• Gold data: World Gold Council and CompaniesMarketCap estimate for current market value, supplemented by recent press on price context. (World Gold Council, Companies Market Cap, The Guardian)

Valuation caveats

• Bitcoin is a non-cash-flow asset. We use a SoV share-of-gold framework for the primary valuation and on-chain multiples (MVRV, NVT) for triangulation. These are not corporate valuation metrics and should be interpreted as heuristic anchors, not precise intrinsic values.

Compliance and conflicts

• This report is generated by AI for information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. No recommendation to buy or sell any security or crypto asset is made or implied, despite the rating formatting used for consistency with research templates. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor. Crypto assets involve high risk, including total loss.