Bitcoin (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 115526.0 USD currently with a change of -352.00 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 116201.0 USD and the intraday low is 115273.0 USD.

Coverage launch on BTC_EUR. Unless stated, prices and market caps are as of 14 Sep 2025, Europe/Berlin. We convert USD to EUR using the ECB reference rate EUR 1 = USD 1.1718 (USD 1 = EUR 0.8534) from 12 Sep 2025. (European Central Bank)

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (spot)
  • BTC_USD: $115,526. Source: price widget at top.
  • FX used: EUR 1 = USD 1.1718 (ECB 12 Sep 2025). BTC_EUR ≈ €98,700 at spot. Calculation: 115,526 × 0.8534. (European Central Bank)
• Target price (12M, EUR): €127,000
  • Implied upside: +28.7% vs ~€98,700 today. Calculation: 127,000 / 98,700 − 1 = 28.7%.
• Investment rating: Buy
• 12-month price chart: above (USD). EUR conversion applied throughout the report using ECB rate. (European Central Bank)
• Market capitalization: ~$2.30 trillion USD, ~€1.96 trillion EUR. Source cross-check: live asset rankings and CMC historical snapshots in early September show ~$2.22–$2.30 trillion; we use $2.299 trillion mid-Sep. (8marketcap.com)
• Circulating supply: ~19.91 million BTC. Block reward 3.125 BTC since 20 Apr 2024 halving. (YCharts)

“Factor” profile (percentile vs a crypto peer set: BTC, ETH, SOL; vs gold as macro SoV anchor)

• Growth 80: ETF penetration, address growth, hashrate at or near records. (Cointelegraph)
• Returns 65: 1Y total return exceeded broad equities Y/Y at several points; risk-adjusted improving. Benchmarks show SPX 1Y ~17.7%. (S&P Global)
• Multiple 55: NVT near long-run mid zone; MVRV ~2.1. (MacroMicro)
• Integrated 67: Simple composite of the three above.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now

1. ETF flywheel still turning. US spot BTC ETFs now hold >$150 billion assets and cumulative net inflows >$56.8 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone shows $88.3 billion AUM as of 12 Sep 2025. We expect continued wealth-platform onboarding in the US and EU ETP growth under MiCA. (Cointelegraph)
2. Supply discipline post-halving. New issuance was cut to 3.125 BTC per block on 20 Apr 2024, implying ~450 BTC/day at ~144 blocks/day. Scarcity meets institutional demand. (Investopedia)
3. Macro tailwinds from a softer USD and rising gold. ECB reference shows a stronger EUR vs USD; several sell-side houses raised gold targets and WGC data show robust demand. Bitcoin’s “digital gold” bid tends to benefit when the dollar weakens and safe-havens attract allocation. (European Central Bank)

Positioning line: “Scarce, institutionalizing digital store-of-value. Initiate at Buy.”

3) Investment Positives

1) Institutional on-ramp is large and compounding

• US spot BTC ETFs: total net assets ~$153.2b; cumulative net inflows ~$56.8b. IBIT AUM $88.3b as of 12 Sep 2025. New daily inflow streaks continue. These products reduce frictions and unlock traditional wealth channels. (Cointelegraph)
• Europe ETPs: multiple physically-backed ETPs listed across SIX, Xetra, Euronext; examples include 21Shares ABTC (AUM ~€842m) and Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) (~$1.38b; ~11,967 BTC). MiCA harmonization lowers regulatory uncertainty for EU allocators. (JustETF)

2) Issuance shock is structural, not cyclical

• Halving on 20 Apr 2024 cut subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. At ~144 blocks/day, daily issuance ≈ 450 BTC, down from ~900 BTC before. This halves structural sell pressure from miners. (Investopedia)

3) Network security and activity trends remain strong

• Hashrate ~1.0–1.1 ZH/s with a new ATH ~1.279 ZH/s on 2 Sep 2025; 30-day SMA near 971 EH/s. A more secure chain supports higher settlement value. (CoinWarz)
• Transaction fees normalized after 2024 spikes. Recent avg fee ~ $0.8–$1.0 per tx on several trackers. Retail usability improved while L2/ordinals cycles ebb. (YCharts)

4) Energy mix improving; policy risk moderating in EU

• Cambridge-linked work indicates ~52% “sustainable” energy share, with renewables plus nuclear rising in miners’ mix. MiCA now fully applicable; ESMA finalized several Level-2 standards to police market abuse and CASP conduct, reducing regulatory tail risk for EU institutions. (Cambridge Judge Business School)

5) Store-of-value share gap vs gold remains wide

• Estimated gold market cap ~$24.7T vs BTC ~$2.30T. BTC is ~9.3% of gold’s value. Even modest share gains can move BTC materially. (CompaniesMarketCap)

4) Competitive / Peer Analysis

We compare BTC against ETH and Gold (macro peer). Values in EUR unless noted.

Sources and notes:

• BTC spot, mkt cap: see Key Data; ETH live data from CoinMarketCap; conversions via ECB FX. Gold cap via CompaniesMarketCap; FX conversion via ECB. NVT via MacroMicro. Fees via YCharts/BitInfoCharts; energy mix via Cambridge news release. BTC ATH headlines and current range from mainstream crypto press in Sep 2025. (CoinMarketCap)
• Examples of Sep 2025 BTC pricing around $111k–$115k: Economic Times feeds. (The Economic Times)

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions

We model BTC_EUR price through 2026–2028 with a simple “share-of-gold” framework, cross-checked to on-chain multiples.

Core inputs and today’s base

• Gold market cap: $24.717T on mid-Sep prices; EUR €21.09T at ECB FX. (CompaniesMarketCap)
• BTC market cap: $2.299T today; EUR €1.962T. BTC share of gold ≈ 9.3%. Calculations: 2.299/24.717 = 9.31%. EUR conversions above. (8marketcap.com)
• Issuance: 3.125 BTC/block since 20 Apr 2024; ~450/day at ~144 blocks/day. (Investopedia)
• ETF base: US spot ETFs ~$153b AUM, $56.8b cum. net inflow; IBIT $88.3b AUM. (Cointelegraph)
• Hashrate: ~1.0–1.1 ZH/s; ATH ~1.279 ZH/s on 2 Sep 2025. (CoinWarz)

Scenario framework (12-month forward, to Sep 2026)

We project BTC’s market-share of gold and convert to price.

• Bear: BTC share slips to 8% of gold (ETF stall, macro risk-off).
  • Target market cap = 0.08 × $24.717T = $1.977T.
  • Implied BTC price = $1.977T / 19.92M ≈ $99,300; EUR ≈ €84,800. Downside −14% vs €98.7k.
• Base: BTC share rises to 12% (continued ETF adoption, EU ETP growth; modest gold strength).
  • Target cap = 0.12 × $24.717T = $2.966T.
  • Implied price ≈ $149,000; EUR ≈ €127,000. Upside +29%.
• Bull: BTC share reaches 16% (broader wealth platform coverage, retirement account penetration).
  • Target cap = 0.16 × $24.717T = $3.955T.
  • Implied price ≈ $198,700; EUR ≈ €169,600. Upside +72%.

Calculations: use supply 19.92M (YCharts, Blockchain.com). FX EUR 0.8534. All rounded. (YCharts)

Operating KPIs and drivers we track

• ETF/ETP AUM penetration: US spot ETFs $153b; Europe examples ABTC ~€842m; BTCE ~$1.38b. KPI: global fund AUM as % of BTC market cap. (Cointelegraph)
• Addresses and activity: Non-zero addresses surpassed ~50M in 2024; active addresses vary with cycle. DATA NEEDED for current Sep-2025 counts; recommended sources: Glassnode Studio, The Block. (CryptoSlate)
• Hashrate and difficulty: 7–30d SMA and new highs; proxy for security investment. Current near 1 ZH/s. (CoinWarz)
• Fees and throughput: Avg fee ~$0.8–$1.0 per tx in early Sep; monitor fee/tx and fees as % of block reward. (YCharts)
• Energy mix: Sustainable share ~52%; track regional policies and grid interconnects. (Cambridge Judge Business School)

6) Valuation

Primary method: Relative “multiple” using NVT and a cross-asset market-share check

• NVT (90-day MA) around 57 in recent prints. Historically, mid-cycle zones lie near the 50–70 band. We assume modest improvement as ETF usage deepens on-chain settlement over time. Cross-check: MVRV ~2.1 is below overheating zones (3.5–4). (MacroMicro)

Our Base Target: €127,000

• Anchored to 12% share of gold by Sep-2026 (from ~9.3% now).
• This equates to a price multiple of ~1.289× vs today’s EUR price. Calculation: 12 / 9.31 = 1.289×; €98.7k × 1.289 ≈ €127.1k.

Cross-checks

• ETF penetration metric: Cointelegraph indicates US spot ETFs represent ~6.6% of BTC’s market cap. If that rises to 8–10% over 12 months with international ETP tailwinds, the Base case is consistent. (Cointelegraph)
• Macro: SPX 1Y return ~17.7% and a softer USD create a supportive risk backdrop historically associated with digital-asset inflows. (S&P Global)

Alternative methods we monitor (not primary)

• MVRV bands for cycle positioning. Today ~2.1 suggests mid-cycle valuation. (AInvest)
• Stock-to-flow style outputs are now less informative given ETF flow-driven demand shocks. No formal use in this target.
• Realized cap growth and free float adjustments. DATA NEEDED: Glassnode/ Coin Metrics realized cap trajectory.

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact to Base Case:

1. ETF outflows / wealth-platform throttling
   • If US ETF flows reverse or major platforms limit retail access, share-of-gold path stalls. Daily flow trackers have shown both streak inflows and sharp outflows in the past. (farside.co.uk)
2. EU regulatory frictions under MiCA rollout
   • ESMA warns about CASP marketing of unregulated services and highlighted inconsistencies in some national processes. Tightened enforcement could slow ETP distribution or CASP operations. (Reuters)
3. USD strength / macro risk-off
   • A USD rebound or aggressive policy surprises could compress BTC multiples and weigh on inflows; equities at highs are vulnerable. (MarketWatch)
4. Protocol or cryptography risks
   • A critical implementation bug, miner concentration, or a future SHA-256 threat would hit value. DATA NEEDED: formal audits and hash-power distribution data.
5. Energy and environmental policy
   • Despite improving ~52% sustainable share, energy scrutiny remains. A spike in energy costs or restrictions could push miner capitulation and near-term hashrate drawdowns. (Cambridge Judge Business School)
6. Liquidity and market-structure shocks
   • Dormant whale activity or exchange incidents can trigger volatility spikes. Example: dormant addresses waking in 2025 created headlines. (MarketWatch)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded model tables

Price scenarios (12M horizon, Sep-2026)

Assumptions sources: WGC/CompaniesMarketCap for gold cap; YCharts/Blockchain.com for BTC supply; ECB for FX. (CompaniesMarketCap)

B) KPI cheat-sheet

• US Spot ETF AUM: ~$153.2b; IBIT $88.3b (12 Sep 2025). (Cointelegraph)
• Cumulative ETF net inflows: ~$56.8b. (Cointelegraph)
• Hashrate: ATH ~1.279 ZH/s on 2 Sep 2025; 30d SMA ~971 EH/s. (CoinWarz)
• Avg transaction fee: ~$0.8–$1.0 per tx in early Sep 2025. (YCharts)
• MiCA status: In force since 30 Dec 2024; ESMA finalized guidelines for market abuse prevention and CASP competence in Jul 2025. (ESMA)

C) Method notes

• Why use BTC/Gold share? BTC’s demand is increasingly allocation-driven via ETFs/ETPs, similar to gold. Share-of-gold frames BTC as a digital SoV competing for the same risk bucket.
• Multiple analogue: NVT functions as a “P/E-like” gauge. We use it as a sanity check, not as the target driver, due to rising off-chain settlement via ETFs. (charts.woobull.com)

D) Additional observations and data points

• BTC EUR spot references: multiple tickers show intraday €98.6–99.0k on 14 Sep 2025 at ~09:00 CET. (markets.businessinsider.com)
• S&P 500: index near record highs; 1-yr return ~17.7% by SPDJI. Useful for cross-asset risk context. (S&P Global)
• Energy consumption: Digiconomist shows ~190 TWh annualized; CBECI provides ranges and comparatives. Track alongside hashrate gains. (Digiconomist)

E) Disclosures & methodology gaps

• Addresses with non-zero balance, active addresses, realized cap: DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: Glassnode Studio, Coin Metrics State of the Network, The Block Data. (studio.glassnode.com)
• Volatility metrics (30–90d realized): DATA NEEDED. Suggested sources: Coin Metrics, Kaiko.

Compliance and important information

This research was generated by altii-BTC-Report, an AI model, based on publicly available sources believed to be reliable at the time of writing. It may contain errors or omissions and is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Digital assets are volatile and can result in total loss. Users should do their own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial advisor. All opinions are those of the AI at the time of publication and may change without notice.

Sources cited include: ECB exchange rates; CompaniesMarketCap and WGC for gold capitalization; CoinMarketCap for crypto prices; IBIT and ETP issuer pages for AUM; Cointelegraph/CoinShares/The Block for ETF flow aggregates; CoinWarz/HashrateIndex/Yahoo Finance for hashrate and market prints; ESMA for MiCA guidance; YCharts/BitInfoCharts for fee data; MacroMicro for NVT and MVRV references; Reuters and other reputable outlets for macro context. Dates appear inline with each statistic.