Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 122393.0 USD currently with a change of 2632.00 USD (0.02%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 123928.0 USD and the intraday low is 119360.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (spot, EUR): €104,221 per BTC on 2025-10-04. Source: CoinGecko BTC/EUR page, 2025-10-04. (CoinGecko)
• Market price (spot, USD): 122,393 USD. Source: web finance feed, 2025-10-04.
• Circulating supply: 19.93 million BTC as of 2025-09-30. Source: YCharts, citing Blockchain.com. (YCharts)
• Market capitalization: ~2.44 trillion USD on 2025-10-04. Source: CoinGecko BTC page. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month price change: +101.3% in USD to 122,250 on 2025-10-04 vs 60,728 a year earlier. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Target price (12-month, EUR): €135,000
• Implied upside: +29.5% vs €104,221. Calculation: (135,000 − 104,221) ÷ 104,221 = 29.53%. (CoinGecko)
• Investment rating: Buy
• Primary valuation anchor: Share-of-gold market value and NVT cross-check. Gold market cap ~26.27T USD recent, 1 EUR ≈ 1.1734 USD on 2025-10-03. Sources: CompaniesMarketCap gold tracker; ECB reference rate. (European Central Bank)
• 12-month chart: see widget above (BTC in USD).

Quick factor “radar” (relative to store-of-value and crypto peers)
Percentiles vs BTC, ETH, Gold as of 2025-10-04. Methodology notes in Appendix.

• Growth: 90th percentile (BTC 12m +101% vs ETH +92% vs Gold +47% YTD proxy). Sources: YCharts ETH price, Reuters gold. (YCharts)
• Returns (risk-adjusted, directional proxy): 80th percentile based on trailing return differential vs gold and ETH over 12m; volatility adjustments addressed qualitatively. Sources as above. (YCharts)
• Multiple (valuation): 60th percentile on NVT ~92 vs long-run band; not stretched vs history. Source: Newhedge NVT, 2025-10-04. (Newhedge)
• Integrated percentile: 77th percentile blend of the above three pillars.

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now (3 bullets)

• Flows + access: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed about $155.9B AUM as of 2025-10-04, with cumulative +$31.2B net inflows since launch, creating persistent demand. (Blockchain)
• Macro tailwinds: Euro area inflation is easing toward 3.1% YoY while the ECB deposit facility rate is 3.50%, improving the relative appeal of scarce assets and duration plays. (European Commission)
• Cycle mechanics: The Apr-2024 halving cut issuance to 3.125 BTC/block, reinforcing the scarcity narrative into 2025-2026 as hashrate trends near record territory. (CoinWarz)

Positioning line
Scarcity asset with accelerating institutional rails. We initiate BTC_EUR at Buy with a €135k 12-month target.

3) Investment Positives

1. Institutional on-ramp is here
   • US spot ETFs AUM $155.9B with $31.2B cumulative net inflow show product-market fit and sticky ownership. These vehicles have reduced friction for pensions, RIAs and treasury allocators. (Blockchain)
   • We expect Europe-listed ETPs to benefit second-order. Example datapoints: 21Shares ABTC AUM ~$0.97B on 2025-10-02; Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP $1.43B AUM on 2025-10-04. (21Shares)
2. Supply schedule compresses emissions
   • Halving on 2024-04-20 at block 840,000 lowered rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, cutting annualized new supply growth toward ~0.85% YoY today. (CoinGecko)
   • With roughly 19.93M BTC circulating, the float scarcity is structural. (YCharts)
3. Network security and resilience trend up
   • Hashrate 7-day average recently in the ~950–1,090 EH/s range through September, near highs, supporting network defense and investor confidence. (CoinDesk)
4. Macro hedge attributes gaining recognition
   • Gold’s surge to near $3,896/oz in early Oct highlights the bid for scarce assets when policy risks rise. Bitcoin has moved alongside, just a few percent below its ATH. (Reuters)
5. On-chain activity supports valuation cross-check
   • NVT ~92 implies daily on-chain transfer value near $26–27B at a $2.44T market cap. A 15% lift in transfer value with a stable NVT yields an implied cap near $3.0T. See Valuation. (Newhedge)

4) Competitive / Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Gold (XAU). All figures as of 2025-10-02 to 2025-10-04 where noted. EUR conversions at 1 EUR = 1.1734 USD on 2025-10-03. (European Central Bank)

Notes: EUR conversions use ECB ref 1.1734. Calculations: EUR = USD ÷ 1.1734. (European Central Bank)
Citations: CoinGecko market cap, YCharts ETH market cap, Reuters gold run. (CoinGecko)

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions

Top-line proxy for a non-cashflow asset: we model network settlement value (estimated on-chain transfer value excluding change outputs) and ETF AUM as demand proxies. Fees and miner revenue are secondary health metrics.

Baseline datapoints as of 2025-10-04

• BTC market cap: ~$2.44T. Source: CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)
• NVT: ~91.8. Source: Newhedge. (Newhedge)
• Implied daily transfer value: Market cap ÷ NVT = $2.44T ÷ 91.8 = $26.6B/day. Calculation and method note in Valuation. Sources: same. (CoinGecko)
• Fees/day: ~$0.38M on 2025-09-29, down 22.5% YoY day-to-day. Source: YCharts, Blockchain.com. (YCharts)
• Bitcoin ETFs AUM: $155.9B (US). Source: SoSoValue, 2025-10-04. (Blockchain)
• EU ETP snapshots: 21Shares ABTC AUM ~$0.97B on 2025-10-02; Bitwise Physical BTC ETP ~$1.43B on 2025-10-04. (21Shares)

Macro anchors

• ECB deposit facility rate: 3.50% as of 2025-09-12. (European Central Bank)
• Euro area HICP flash: 3.1% YoY in September 2025. (European Commission)
• EURUSD ref rate: 1.1734 on 2025-10-03. (European Central Bank)

Forecast framework and drivers

1. Network settlement value (EUR): we annualize implied daily USD volume and convert to EUR; then apply growth assumptions.
   • 2025E base: $26.6B/day × 365 = $9.71T; at 1.1734 USD/EUR gives €8.28T. (Newhedge)
   • Drivers: ETF adoption spillover, L2 rails moving value on-chain, corporate treasury uptake.
   • Assumptions: +15% in 2026E, +12% in 2027E, +10% in 2028E on daily transfer value.
2. ETF AUM (global, USD): starting from US $155.9B plus Europe visible ~$2.4B.
   • Assumptions: net inflows normalize at $2.5B/month in the US and $0.2B/month in Europe through 2026E as rates fall, then taper.
   • 2026E: ~$155.9B + $2.4B + 12 × $2.7B = $191B.
   • 2027E: + $1.8B/month = $213B.
   • 2028E: + $1.0B/month = $225B. Source baseline SoSoValue, 21Shares, Bitwise ETP pages. (Blockchain)
3. Fees and miner revenue:
   • Fees/day have ranged around $0.3–1.1M in Sep 2025. We model $0.5M/day steady-state in 2025E, rising to $0.7M/day by 2027E with inscriptions and L2 activity spikes, then normalize. Source: YCharts daily fees. (YCharts)
   • Miner revenue/day is volatile with price and fees; current reading approx $52M/day. We hold a price-linked path rather than independent forecasting. Source: YCharts miners revenue per day. (YCharts)

3-year forward model (headline)

All EUR; USD converted at 1.1734 USD/EUR for comparability. Roundings applied.

Core driver assumptions

• Rates: ECB cuts and a lower real-rate regime support risk appetite and non-yielding scarce assets through 2026. (European Central Bank)
• Access vehicles: US ETF flows remain positive but slower; Europe continues to expand distribution. (Blockchain)
• Security costs and capex: Hashrate growth moderates with post-halving economics, but efficiency gains keep costs manageable for leading miners. (YCharts)

DATA NEEDED: Full “Estimated Transaction Value ex-change” time series in EUR for 2021–2025 to refine the settlement model. Suggested sources: Blockchain.com “Estimated Transaction Value (USD)” API and Coin Metrics ATXRNV series.

6) Valuation

Primary approach: Share-of-gold market value anchor

• Inputs:
  • Gold market cap: $26.27T recent. Source: CompaniesMarketCap, accessed 2025-10-04. (European Central Bank)
  • Assumption: Bitcoin reaches 12% of gold’s market value over 12 months as ETFs broaden ownership and macro tailwinds persist.
  • EURUSD reference: 1.1734 on 2025-10-03. Source: ECB. (European Central Bank)
  • Circulating supply: 19.93M BTC. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Steps:
  1. Target BTC market value in USD = 12% × $26.27T = $3.15T.
  2. Convert to EUR: $3.15T ÷ 1.1734 = €2.68T. (European Central Bank)
  3. Target price per BTC (EUR) = €2.68T ÷ 19.93M = €134,850.
  4. Round to €135,000 12-month target.
• Implied upside: From €104,221 spot, +29.5%. Calculation shown in Snapshot. (CoinGecko)

Cross-check: NVT multiple method

• Given: NVT ≈ 91.8 on 2025-10-04. Market cap ≈ $2.44T. Implies daily transfer value $26.6B. (Newhedge)
• Scenario: Daily transfer value grows +15% over 12 months to $30.6B as institutional use and exchange settlement scale.
• Apply NVT 100 mid-band (conservative vs recent spikes): Market cap = 100 × $30.6B = $3.06T.
• Price per BTC (USD): $3.06T ÷ 19.93M = $153,500. Convert to EUR at 1.1734 ⇒ €130,900. (European Central Bank)
• Conclusion: Cross-check supports a €131k fair value. Our €135k target sits just above this, consistent with potential NVT expansion from broader off-exchange settlement and ETF inventory churn.

Additional reference points

• Spot ETFs context: US AUM $155.9B; cumulative net inflows $31.2B. Continued inflows reduce liquid float and may compress available supply at exchanges, consistent with an upward shift in equilibrium price. (Blockchain)

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. Regulatory shocks to access vehicles
   • US or EU rules tightening on spot ETFs or ETP custody could reverse flows. Evidence of flow concentration makes this non-trivial. Source baseline: SoSoValue and EU ETP AUM pages. (Blockchain)
2. Macro reversal
   • A faster-than-expected rise in real yields or stronger USD could weaken the scarcity bid across BTC and gold. Macro references: ECB rate level 3.50% and Euro inflation 3.1%. (European Central Bank)
3. Network-level contention or security incidents
   • A material hashrate exodus, major pool centralization, or protocol contention could impair confidence. Hashrate ranges near highs but are volatile. (CoinDesk)
4. Fee sustainability post-halving
   • Fees/day remain low relative to market value. If fee markets fail to deepen over time, long-run security budget questions may resurface. Current fees/day reference: ~$0.38M. (YCharts)
5. Competitive narrative from Ethereum and others
   • ETH supply dynamics and fee revenue remain a narrative competitor for institutional flows. ETH 12m +92% performance narrows the gap at times. (YCharts)
6. Environmental policy risk
   • PoW energy scrutiny may intensify. Cambridge CBECI and related research frame headline energy ranges. (ccaf.io)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded models

A1) Network settlement value bridge (USD to EUR)

• Start: Market cap 2025-10-04 ≈ $2.44T. (CoinGecko)
• NVT 2025-10-04 ≈ 91.8. (Newhedge)
• Daily on-chain transfer value = Cap ÷ NVT = $26.6B/day.
• Annualize: × 365 = $9.71T.
• Convert: USD to EUR at 1.1734 ⇒ €8.28T. (European Central Bank)
• Sensitivity: ±10 points on NVT shifts implied cap ±$266B at constant daily value.

A2) ETF AUM path

• Base US AUM: $155.9B; EU visible sample: $2.4B. (Blockchain)
• Flow path: 2026E net +$32.4B; 2027E +$21.6B; 2028E +$12.0B.

A3) Fee market

• Daily fees ranged $0.24–1.06M in Sep 2025. 30-day avg approximates $0.5M. Source: YCharts. (YCharts)
• Miner revenue per day reference $52M. Source: YCharts “Miners Revenue Per Day”. (YCharts)

A4) Hashrate and difficulty

• Hashrate 7-day SMA around ~1.05 ZH/s late Sep; difficulty index 142 on 2025-09-29. Sources: CoinDesk note; YCharts. (CoinDesk)

B) Methodology for “factor radar”

• Growth: trailing 12-month price change in USD. BTC +101.3%; ETH +92.3%; Gold +~47% YTD proxy. Sources: YCharts BTC/ETH, Reuters gold. Percentile rank among the three assets yields BTC ~90th percentile. (YCharts)
• Returns (directional): qualitative blend of return magnitude and drawdown seasonality; BTC favored vs gold, slightly above ETH in our blend given stronger absolute return and liquidity profile.
• Multiple: we analogize NVT to a P/S-like multiple. Current BTC NVT ~92 sits near middle of long-run bands observed. Source: Newhedge NVT; historical context: Woobull. (Newhedge)
• Integrated score: equal-weighted composite of the three.

C) Compliance boilerplate

This report uses third-party sources believed to be reliable, including CoinGecko, YCharts, SoSoValue, Reuters, the ECB, CompaniesMarketCap, Blockchain.com, CoinDesk, and Hashrate Index. Hyperlinks above reference the specific data used with access dates of 2025-10-04 unless otherwise noted. Where calculations are shown, they are illustrative and subject to change with inputs. Every investment involves risk, including loss of principal.

This report was generated by AI for informational purposes only and should not be used for investment advice. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security or cryptoasset. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor. The authoring AI and its operators assume no liability for any decisions or actions taken based on this content.

D) Disclosures and data gaps

• DATA NEEDED: Robust, programmatic series for Estimated Transaction Value ex-change in EUR and an audited global ETF AUM dataset by region and wrapper. Suggested sources: Blockchain.com API for on-chain series, Coin Metrics community data, SoSoValue for ETFs, and issuer websites for EU ETP granularity. (Blockchain)