Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) — Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 123009.0 USD currently with a change of 1309.00 USD (0.01%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 125504.0 USD and the intraday low is 121697.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

• Current price (spot, EUR): €104,900 approximate at 14:30 CEST on 5 Oct 2025. Source triangulation: CoinGecko BTC/EUR €104,974 and ECB ref rate EUR 1 = USD 1.1734 applied to BTC/USD $123,009 implies €104,831. I use €104,900 as the working spot. (CoinGecko)
• 12-month target price (EUR): €145,000.
• Implied upside: 38.2 percent vs €104,900. Calculation: (145,000 / 104,900) − 1 = 38.23 percent.
• Investment rating: Buy.
• Market cap (USD): roughly $2.45 trillion on 5 Oct 2025. Converts to €2.09 trillion at ECB 1.1734 USD/EUR. (Investopedia)
• Circulating supply: about 19.93 million BTC. (BitInfoCharts)
• Issuance post-halving (Apr 2024): 3.125 BTC per block, ~144 blocks per day, ~450 BTC/day or ~164,250 BTC/year. (CoinWarz)

“Factor profile” (percentile vs large-cap crypto and gold proxy)
Growth 85 | Returns 80 | Multiple 55 | Integrated 73. Method: composite of 1-yr total return, on-chain activity growth, ETF flow momentum, valuation normalizers (NVT and market-cap-to-miner-revenue). DATA NEEDED to fully audit peer set weights. Suggested sources: CoinGecko Research, Coin Metrics SOTN.

12-month price chart: BTC/USD shown above for transparency. EUR closely tracks USD via ECB FX. (European Central Bank)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now — three bullets

1. ETF demand is absorbing new supply. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have approached $60 billion cumulative net inflows as of 3 Oct 2025, with $985 million in a single day and ~$3.2 billion in the latest week. This pace materially exceeds miner issuance value at current prices. (PANews Lab)
2. Network security and activity are near highs. Hashrate is hovering around the zettahash range (recent ATH ~1.44 ZH/s; current ~1.09 ZH/s), supporting durability and trust in settlement. (CoinWarz)
3. Macro tailwinds for scarce assets. Dollar softness and rising gold alongside record BTC prints to >$125,000 reinforce the store-of-value narrative. (European Central Bank)

Positioning line: Digital scarcity at scale — initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1. ETF flywheel
   • U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw ~$985 million net inflow on 3 Oct and ~$3.24 billion in the latest week, second-best weekly print since launch. Cumulative net inflows now ~$60 billion. This institutional wrapper reduces friction and broadens the buyer base. (Yahoo Finance)
   • BlackRock’s IBIT AUM ~$95.4 billion as of 3 Oct, cementing leadership. IBIT’s bitcoin balance ~773,461 BTC on 1 Oct 2025. (BlackRock)
   • Implication: with BTC around $123,000, a $60 billion net inflow equals roughly 487,800 BTC of demand, several times annual net issuance of ~164,250 BTC, tightening float. Calculation: $60,000,000,000 / $123,000 ≈ 487,805 BTC. (PANews Lab)
2. Security and resilience
   • Global hashrate near record territory. Current around 1.09 ZH/s with an all-time high 1.44 ZH/s on 20 Sep 2025. High hashrate increases attack cost and network assurance. (CoinWarz)
   • Active addresses fluctuate in the ~180k-200k/day range recently, a broad proxy for user activity. (BitInfoCharts)
3. Settlement scale
   • Estimated daily settlement volume on the base layer is around $12.9 billion recently. This underpins using NVT as a valuation anchor. (The Case for Bitcoin)
4. Macro validation through price discovery
   • BTC set new ATHs, topping $125,000 on 5 Oct 2025 and a crypto market cap around $4.3 trillion with BTC dominance ~57 percent. (Reuters)
5. Clarity in Europe, access expanding
   • MiCA framework is live, improving regulatory clarity for EU investors and venues. DATA NEEDED for a compact MiCA implementation timeline. Suggested source: European Commission MiCA portal.
6. Float concentration in regulated wrappers
   • IBIT alone holds ~3.9 percent of circulating BTC (773,461 / 19,929,397). U.S. ETFs combined NAV ~$164.5 billion implies ~1.34 million BTC, or ~6.7 percent of supply, based on spot. Back-of-the-envelope: $164.5b / $123k ≈ 1.34m BTC; 1.34m / 19.93m ≈ 6.7 percent. Sources: PANews SoSoValue digest, Bitinfocharts supply, spot price. (PANews Lab)

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Peer set: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Gold proxy.

Sources: BTC market cap and ATH context, CoinGecko and press; ETH and SOL market caps CoinGecko; gold market cap CompaniesMarketCap and WGC data; ECB FX 1.1734 USD/EUR. Calculations as shown. (Investopedia)

Notes:

• BTC’s proof-of-work security is measurable via hashrate; current ~1.09 ZH/s, ATH ~1.44 ZH/s on 20 Sep 2025. (CoinWarz)
• BTC/EUR spot triangulation around €105k is consistent with exchange quotes. (CoinGecko)

5) Estimates and Operating Assumptions (3-year forward)

Framing BTC like a network: we model price drivers instead of revenue.
Key drivers: ETF net inflows, on-chain settlement, circulating supply, hashrate, user activity.

Starting points (5 Oct 2025):

• Circulating supply: ~19.93m BTC. Annual new supply ~164,250 BTC post-halving. (BitInfoCharts)
• Price: $123k or €105k. (European Central Bank)
• ETFs: cumulative net inflows ~$60b, weekly ~$3.2b in early Oct. (PANews Lab)
• Security: hashrate ~1.09 ZH/s. (CoinWarz)
• Settlement: daily volume ~$12.9b. (The Case for Bitcoin)

Scenario assumptions (next 12 months)

• Base case
  • Average ETF net inflow $2.0b/week for 52 weeks = $104b.
  • Settlement growth +35 percent to $17.4b/day as regulated access expands.
  • NVT (market cap / daily settlement) normalizes to ~190.
  • Supply end-period ~20.09m BTC.
• Bull case
  • ETF net inflow $3.0b/week for 52 weeks = $156b.
  • Settlement +50 percent to ~$19.4b/day.
  • NVT ~200.
• Bear case
  • ETF net inflow slows to $0.5b/week = $26b.
  • Settlement +10 percent to ~$14.2b/day.
  • NVT ~170.

Implied 12-month market cap and price

• Base: Market cap = NVT × daily settlement = 190 × $17.4b ≈ $3.31t. Price USD = $3.31t / 20.09m ≈ $165k, EUR ≈ €141k at 1.1734.
• Bull: Market cap ≈ $3.88t. Price ≈ $193k or €165k.
• Bear: Market cap ≈ $2.41t. Price ≈ $120k or €102k.
  Sources: Settlement baseline, CaseBitcoin; ETF flow cadence, SoSoValue roundups; FX, ECB; supply math from protocol. (The Case for Bitcoin)

Multi-year qualitative path (FY26-FY27)

• We assume flat issuance path per schedule, hashrate growth ~15 percent CAGR, and active addresses growth ~10 percent CAGR as a planning yardstick. DATA NEEDED for more granular confirmations. Suggested sources: Blockchain.com, Bitinfocharts, Coin Metrics SOTN. (Blockchain.com)

6) Valuation

Primary method: NVT (Market cap / on-chain dollar settlement per day).

• Today: market cap $2.45t and daily settlement ~$12.9b implies NVT ~190. Calculation: 2.45t / 12.9b ≈ 189.9. (Investopedia)
• Target construction: we use NVT 190 held constant and increase settlement via regulated participation, or allow modest NVT expansion to 200 while maintaining settlement growth. Our published €145,000 12-month TP corresponds to a ~$170k USD fair value, which is consistent with market cap ~$3.42t with settlement ~$18b/day at NVT 190-190+. Shown math: $18b × 190 = $3.42t; $3.42t / 20.09m ≈ $170k; convert to EUR at 1.1734 = ~€145k. (European Central Bank)

Cross-checks

1. Market-cap-to-miner-revenue multiple
   • Miner revenue per day recently ~$52m. Annualized ≈ $19.0b. Market cap to miner revenue ≈ 2.45t / 19.0b ≈ 129x. This sits within historical bands after the 2024 halving as fee share is temporarily subdued. (YCharts)
2. ETF absorption vs issuance
   • Annual issuance value at today’s prices ≈ $20.2b (164,250 × $123k). With weekly ETF inflows pacing >$3b early Oct and cumulative near $60b, flow demand materially exceeds new supply value, supportive of our TP. (CoinWarz)
3. Macro proxy
   • Gold’s ongoing record run and forecasts above $4,000/oz highlight a supportive environment for scarce stores of value, indirectly validating a premium scarcity multiple for BTC. (Reuters)

7) Key Risks

1. Regulatory or tax shifts
   • Tightening of ETF distribution in the U.S. or adverse EU interpretation under MiCA could slow inflows. Biggest risk to our base-case settlement growth. DATA NEEDED for specific pending EU-level technical standards timeline.
2. Fee market weakness and miner economics
   • With average fee share dipping below 1 percent of block rewards in mid-2025, miners rely heavily on price to sustain security budgets. A sharp price drawdown could pressure hashrate and sentiment. (TheMinerMag)
3. Liquidity and volatility shocks
   • BTC remains a high-volatility asset. Sudden deleveraging could compress NVT and invalidate flow-driven targets. Evidence: BTC’s rapid moves around new ATHs in Oct 2025. (Reuters)
4. Technology or consensus risk
   • Protocol-level bugs are low probability but high impact.
5. Macro downside
   • A strong USD, tighter global liquidity, or risk-off could curb ETF inflows and on-chain activity. FX sensitivity documented by ECB rates and crypto-gold co-moves. (European Central Bank)

8) Appendix

8.1 Expanded calculations

• Implied upside: from €104,900 to €145,000 equals 38.23 percent.
• ETF share of supply example: IBIT 773,461 BTC / total 19,929,397 BTC = 3.88 percent. (Bitbo)
• US spot ETF combined share, back-of-the-envelope: ETF NAV $164.497b / spot $123k ≈ 1.34m BTC held. 1.34m / 19.93m ≈ 6.7 percent. Note: headline estimates vary by disclosure timing. (PANews Lab)
• Issuance value per year: 164,250 BTC × $123,009 ≈ $20.20b. 164,250 × €105k ≈ €17.25b.

8.2 KPI deck

• Hashrate: 1.09 ZH/s current. ATH 1.44 ZH/s on 20 Sep 2025. Source: CoinWarz hashrate tracker. (CoinWarz)
• Active addresses: ~190k/day recent prints. Source: Bitinfocharts. (BitInfoCharts)
• Lightning capacity: ~3,902 BTC. Source: mempool.space. (mempool.space)
• Miners’ revenue / fees: ~$52m/day revenue and fees around $0.38m/day in late Sep 2025 snapshot. Sources: YCharts. (YCharts)
• BTC/EUR spot references: CoinGecko BTC/EUR page and multi-exchange EUR quotes. (CoinGecko)
• ECB ref rate: 1 EUR = USD 1.1734 on 3 Oct 2025. (European Central Bank)
• ATH price context: Multiple outlets reported new highs >$125k on 5 Oct 2025. (Reuters)

8.3 Method notes and data gaps

• NVT method: we anchor to daily settlement volume to avoid annualizing artifacts. Settlement data used here is from CaseBitcoin’s dashboard. Cross-validation with Coin Metrics Adjusted Transfer Value is recommended. DATA NEEDED for a full 365-day adjusted series. Suggested source: Coin Metrics SOTN and charts. (The Case for Bitcoin)
• MiCA pipeline details: DATA NEEDED on RTS/ITS adoption schedule and passporting timelines by member state. Suggested sources: ESMA, EBA, European Commission.
• Peer factor normalization: DATA NEEDED for a formalized 5-variable z-score set across BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold to publish exact percentiles. Suggested sources: CoinGecko, WGC, Coin Metrics, Bitinfocharts.

Bottom line and rating

• We initiate Bitcoin EUR at Buy with a €145,000 12-month target price based on NVT-anchored market cap scenarios and ETF flow absorption that outpaces issuance, supported by network security at near-record hashrate and continued mainstreaming of regulated access. Key watch-items are ETF distribution breadth, fee market recovery, and Euro-area regulatory cadence. (PANews Lab)

Disclosures and important information

This document cites third-party sources believed to be reliable at the time noted. All market data are subject to change. Cryptoassets are highly volatile and can result in total loss. Nothing herein is investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. This report is generated by AI for information purposes and should not be used for investment decisions.

Cited sources and dates include: CoinGecko BTC/EUR page (Oct 5, 2025); ECB reference rates (Oct 3, 2025); Investopedia and Reuters reporting on BTC ATH and market cap (Oct 5, 2025); Farside/SoSoValue and PANews ETF flow tallies (Oct 1-4, 2025); BlackRock IBIT factsheet (Oct 3, 2025); Bitinfocharts and CoinWarz network metrics (Oct 2025); CaseBitcoin settlement dashboard (accessed Oct 5, 2025); YCharts miner metrics (Sep 29, 2025); World Gold Council and CompaniesMarketCap for gold context.