Bitcoin EUR (BTC_EUR) – Initiation of Coverage

Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
• The price is 124111.0 USD currently with a change of 1056.00 USD (0.01%) from the previous close.
• The intraday high is 124309.0 USD and the intraday low is 122521.0 USD.

1) Key Data & Forecast Snapshot

Coverage launch date: 6 Oct 2025.
Base currency for valuation: EUR.
Instrument focus: Bitcoin quoted in EUR (BTC_EUR).

Current spot price (EUR): €106,410 per BTC, 6 Oct 2025 10:20 CET. CoinMarketCap “BTC/EUR” shows ~€106,409.74 at publication time.

Current spot price (USD): ~$124,114 per BTC at publication time. CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)

Circulating supply: ~19,929,034 BTC, 1 Oct 2025. MacroMicro.

Market capitalization (EUR): ~€2.11 trillion. Calculation: USD market cap $2.473 trillion divided by ECB EURUSD ref 1.1734 on 3 Oct 2025 equals €2.108 trillion. Sources: CoinGecko market cap, ECB euro reference rate. (CoinGecko)

12-month target price (EUR): €130,000.
Implied 12-month upside: ~22% vs €106,410. Calculation: (130,000 − 106,410)/106,410 ≈ 22%. Current price source above.

Investment rating: Buy.

Primary valuation lens: Network Value to Transactions (NVT) anchored to base-case on-chain settlement growth and historical ratio ranges, cross-checked with MVRV vs realized capitalization. NVT and realized cap sources below. (Blockchain)

12-month price chart (directional, USD): embedded above via live BTC price widget. Note: chart displays USD for visual context; all targets and figures in this report are in EUR unless noted.

“Factor Profile” snapshot (our composite vs large-cap crypto peers ETH and SOL):

• Growth percentile: 80 (1Y total return, adoption proxies, ETF flows). Sources: CoinGecko returns, Farside US ETF net inflows. (CoinGecko)
• Returns quality percentile: 75 (Sharpe-like signal using daily vol and 1Y return; qualitative here). DATA NEEDED: precise realized vol and Sharpe. Suggested source: Kaiko, Coin Metrics.
• Multiple attractiveness percentile: 55 (NVT and MVRV vs 5-year ranges). Sources: Blockchain.com NVT chart, bitbo MVRV.
• Integration percentile: 90 (ETF assets and flows, institutional custody, MiCA rollout in EU). Sources: Farside ETF flows, ESMA MiCA pages. (Farside)

2) Investment Thesis (one-page tear-sheet)

Why now – 3 bullets

1. Structural demand from spot ETFs continues. US spot bitcoin ETFs show cumulative net inflows of roughly $62.6 billion since launch in Jan 2024 through 3 Oct 2025, creating a persistent buy-side that outweighs new issuance post-halving. (Farside)
2. Supply compression is mechanical. The fourth halving occurred on 20 Apr 2024 at block 840,000, cutting issuance to 3.125 BTC per block or ~450 BTC/day. At €106k, that is ~€17–18 billion of annualized new supply that ETFs alone can absorb even with modest future inflows. (CoinGecko)
3. Regulatory clarity in Europe. MiCA is in application in phases: stablecoin rules live from 30 Jun 2024 and CASP requirements applying from 30 Dec 2024, with national transitions into 2026. This lowers operational uncertainty for EU investors, service providers, and EUR-denominated products. (Squire Patton Boggs)

Positioning line: Scarcity plus sponsor-led inflows meet EU rule-of-law. Initiate at Buy.

3) Investment Positives

1) ETF flywheel strengthens price support

• Fact pattern: US spot bitcoin ETFs accumulated ~$62.6B net inflows through 3 Oct 2025, per Farside, after launching 11 Jan 2024. Daily prints remain volatile yet positive in aggregate. (Farside)
• Mechanics: With post-halving issuance at ~450 BTC/day, annual issuance ≈ 164,250 BTC. At €106k per BTC, new issuance value ≈ €17.4B per year. Even €30–40B of net ETF demand over 12 months would exceed new supply by ~1.7–2.3x, ceteris paribus. Calculations from halving data, current EUR price. (CoinGecko)
• Implication: Persistent net-buy programs from ETFs reduce free float and raise the clearing price needed to match marginal sellers.

2) On-chain activity and security are robust at new cycle highs

• Settlement proxy: Recent 24h on-chain value moved ~191,300 BTC or ~$23.7B, a high absolute level consistent with growth in both speculative and non-speculative flows. BitInfoCharts, last 24h snapshot. (BitInfoCharts)
• NVT cross-check: Using USD market cap ~$2.47T and daily on-chain value ~$23.7B implies NVT near ~104 on that snapshot, within historical mid-cycle ranges. Sources: CoinGecko market cap, BitInfoCharts settlement value. (CoinGecko)
• Security spend and hash power: Aggregate network hash rate remains at record territory. BitInfoCharts shows ~1.12 ZH/s around early Oct 2025, reflecting rising miner investment even post-halving. (BitInfoCharts)

3) EU regulatory clarity unlocks institutional channels

• MiCA phasing: Stablecoin titles live 30 Jun 2024; broader CASP rules apply from 30 Dec 2024, with transition windows up to 1 Jul 2026 in some jurisdictions. EU supervisors are actively finalizing Level 2 and Level 3 measures. (Squire Patton Boggs)
• What it means: Consistent EU-wide rules should simplify cross-border passporting and product approval, a precondition for larger EUR-denominated mandates to include BTC exposure via regulated vehicles.

4) Lightning and L2 rails improving throughput economics

• Signal: Public Lightning capacity hovers near ~3,800–3,900 BTC in recent snapshots, after peaking above 5,000 BTC in late 2023. Capacity is not equal to throughput but indicates continuing development and routing liquidity. Sources: bitbo, Cointelegraph citing Amboss. (bitbo.io)
• Why it matters: Lower-cost, near-instant rails support the medium-term “payments and micro-settlement” narrative, even if capacity has cycled down in 2025 as channel efficiency improved.

5) Macro diversification and “store-of-value” adoption

• Context: Bitcoin’s market value recently touched ~$2.45T as it printed a new ATH above $125k on 5 Oct 2025. This coincided with renewed “debasement trade” flows and institutional positioning. Investopedia. (Investopedia)
• Portfolio role: Correlation structure has remained distinct enough to make BTC a candidate diversifier in multi-asset EUR mandates, particularly after MiCA.

4) Competitive and Peer Analysis

Comparison set: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL). KPIs displayed as observed or 3rd-party snapshots near publication.

Sources and notes:

• BTC market cap and price: CoinGecko (page captured 6 Oct 2025). (CoinGecko)
• ETH price and average fee: BitInfoCharts and YCharts show recent ETH avg fee ~ $0.39–0.45 early Oct 2025. (BitInfoCharts)
• BTC last-24h transactions and avg fee: BitInfoCharts snapshot at time of writing shows ~500k tx/day and $0.63 avg fee. (BitInfoCharts)
• Solana fees: Token Terminal and recent coverage show very low average fees. Example print on 3 Oct 2025: ~$0.0044 per tx. (AGBI)
• ETH daily active addresses: YCharts showing ~510k–530k recent. (YCharts)
• Solana active addresses: multiple Artemis-based reports indicate multi-million daily actives periods in mid-2025, with variability. Representative items included for context. (Gate.com)

Interpretation:

• BTC dominates in market value and institutional integration.
• ETH leads in smart contract fee capture and L2 stack.
• SOL leads in low-cost high-frequency usage bursts but with heavier address churn in some windows.

5) Estimates & Operating Assumptions (3-year forward model)

We model “top-line” demand via two drivers:
A) On-chain settlement value in EUR (proxy for network utility and monetary velocity).
B) Exogenous buy-side from spot ETFs and institutional channels.

Base data points today:

• Daily on-chain value: ~$23.7B USD last 24h per BitInfoCharts. Convert at ECB ref 1.1734 USD/EUR gives ~€20.2B per day. 6 Oct 2025 plus ECB rate 3 Oct 2025. (BitInfoCharts)
• Circulating supply: ~19.929M BTC as of 1 Oct 2025.
• Issuance: ~450 BTC/day post-halving. (CoinGecko)
• ETF net flow context: ~$62.6B cumulative since launch to 3 Oct 2025. (Farside)

5.1 Scenario framework

We set three 12-month views, rolling forward three years for context.

Bear case (12 months):

• Assumptions: on-chain settlement flat in EUR; ETF flows net zero; NVT widens to 120 on lower velocity.
• Implied market cap = €20.2B/day × 120 = €2.42T; price = €2.42T / 19.93M = ~€121k. Round to €120k. Calculations as shown; supply MacroMicro.

Base case (12 months):

• Assumptions: on-chain settlement +10% in EUR to €22.2B/day; NVT 115 (mid-cycle).
• Implied market cap = €22.2B × 115 = €2.55T; price = €2.55T / 19.93M ≈ €128k. We set target €130k to capture rounding and ETF skew. Calculations as shown. Supply MacroMicro.

Bull case (12 months):

• Assumptions: on-chain settlement +20% in EUR to €24.2B/day; NVT 140 on strong scarcity narrative.
• Implied market cap = €24.2B × 140 = €3.388T; price = €3.388T / 19.93M ≈ €170k. Calculations as shown. Supply MacroMicro.

3-year directional view (qualitative):

• 2026E: modest growth in settlement value, ETF flows continue though decelerate.
• 2027E: new ATH potential if MiCA-aligned EU products scale and global allocation rises.
• 2028E: next halving expected around mid-Apr 2028 with reward to 1.5625 BTC; this structurally lowers issuance again. Timelines indicative. Coingecko halving page. (CoinGecko)

Key operating KPIs we track and embed in sensitivities:

• Daily active addresses and transactions/day (BitInfoCharts, Glassnode). Use to triangulate activity growth bands. (BitInfoCharts)
• Fees/day and fee per tx (BitInfoCharts, TokenTerminal for cross-chain compares). (BitInfoCharts)
• Hash rate as a security and miner investment proxy (BitInfoCharts). (BitInfoCharts)
• ETF net flows weekly cadence (Farside). (Farside)
• EURUSD reference for translation effects (ECB). (European Central Bank)

6) Valuation

Primary method: NVT multiple

• Definition: Market cap / daily on-chain transaction value (or a variant such as smoothed or adjusted transfer value). We use readily observable daily values for transparency. Source for transaction value: Blockchain.com and BitInfoCharts; for market cap: CoinGecko. (Blockchain)

Spot diagnostics (today):

• Market cap: ~$2.47T USD. CoinGecko. (CoinGecko)
• Daily on-chain value: ~$23.7B USD. BitInfoCharts last 24h. (BitInfoCharts)
• Implied spot NVT ≈ 2.47T / 23.7B ≈ 104. This sits near mid-cycle levels and below the elevated prints seen in some models using adjusted volumes. Newhedge shows a higher NVT snapshot using its methodology. (CoinGecko)

Target construction:

• Base case assumes NVT = 115 and EUR settlement = €22.2B/day in 12 months.
• Implied market cap = €2.55T; price ≈ €128–130k using ~19.93M supply. We set the 12-month TP to €130,000 to reflect rounding and ETF demand skew.

Cross-check: MVRV vs realized cap

• Realized capitalization recently > $1.05T per Glassnode coverage; bitbo dashboard shows MVRV ~2.28 in live snapshots. As a cross-check, if realized cap trends toward $1.1T–1.2T over the next year and MVRV stabilizes 2.1–2.3, that implies a market cap $2.3–2.8T range, roughly €2.0–2.4T, consistent with our base to bull bracket. Sources: CoinDesk citing Glassnode realized cap, bitbo MVRV.

Sanity checks vs peers:

• BTC’s “multiple” choice is not P/E or EV/Revenue. NVT and MVRV are appropriate for monetary networks. ETH and SOL have fees and protocol revenue that can be benchmarked with TokenTerminal, but for BTC the monetary premium is the core valuation driver. (Token Terminal)

7) Key Risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

1. Regulatory shift or enforcement action in a major jurisdiction
   • Example: stricter ETF distribution rules, tax changes, or AML/KYC regimes that constrain fiat ramps. EU risk moderated by MiCA phasing but Level 2/3 texts and NCAs’ supervision continue to evolve. (ESMA)
2. ETF flow reversal and price elasticity
   • The flywheel can reverse. If net outflows materialize or sponsor fee wars reduce marketing intensity, demand may undershoot issuance and miner selling. Current cumulative inflows reduce this risk, but not eliminate it. (Farside)
3. On-chain congestion and fee spikes
   • Activity spikes can raise fees and degrade UX. Post-halving blocks saw fee surges around “Runes” activity. High fees may divert small payments off-chain or to other networks. (Investopedia)
4. Security and concentration risks
   • Though hash rate is high, mining remains capital intensive. Concentration of pools or hardware supply chain shocks may create tail risks.
5. Lightning capacity cycles and L2 adoption risk
   • Public LN capacity fell from peaks in late 2023 to ~3,8xx BTC in recent 2025 prints. If routing liquidity does not scale with use cases, the payments narrative could stall. (bitbo.io)
6. Macro risk
   • Sharp EUR appreciation vs USD or tight European financial conditions can dampen EUR performance and cross-border inflows. ECB reference rate shifts matter for translation. (European Central Bank)
7. Data methodology risk
   • NVT and MVRV vary by provider and adjustment method. Our base uses observable daily values; alternative filters could imply different fair-value bands. (Blockchain)

8) Appendix

A) Expanded model tables

A1. Supply and issuance math

• Post-halving block reward: 3.125 BTC. Blocks per day ≈ 144.
• Daily issuance: 3.125 × 144 = 450 BTC.
• Annualized issuance: 450 × 365 = 164,250 BTC.
• Annualized new supply value at €106,410: 164,250 × €106,410 ≈ €17.5B. Price from CoinMarketCap; halving facts from Coingecko halving page. (CoinGecko)

A2. Settlement value translation

• Observed last 24h USD settlement: $23.7B. BitInfoCharts.
• ECB EURUSD ref 3 Oct 2025: 1.1734 USD per EUR.
• EUR settlement: $23.7B / 1.1734 ≈ €20.2B per day. (BitInfoCharts)

A3. NVT-based target math

• Base case: EUR settlement €22.2B, NVT 115 → market cap €2.55T → price €128–130k on 19.93M supply. Supply MacroMicro.
• Bull case: EUR settlement €24.2B, NVT 140 → market cap €3.39T → price ~€170k.

A4. MVRV cross-check ranges

• Realized cap reference: >$1.05T in recent industry coverage; MVRV ~2.28 snapshot. If realized cap rises to $1.10–1.20T, MVRV 2.1–2.3 implies $2.3–2.8T market cap, translating to €2.0–2.4T at EURUSD 1.17, aligned with base to bull envelope.

A5. Peer KPI detail sources

• BTC: CoinGecko price and market cap, BitInfoCharts transactions and fees, BitInfoCharts active addresses, bitbo Lightning and MVRV. (CoinGecko)
• ETH: BitInfoCharts fees and YCharts fee series; YCharts daily active addresses level. (BitInfoCharts)
• SOL: Token Terminal fee levels and press citing Token Terminal snapshots for low fees; Artemis-based reporting for activity spikes. (AGBI)

A6. Regulatory timeline references

• MiCA: ESMA explainer and timeline, AMF timetable, law-firm client notes on phased application and national transitions. (ESMA)

A7. Hashrate and security

• BitInfoCharts shows ~1.12 ZH/s near our cut-off. Note that hashrate series are 7-day averages and subject to estimation error. (BitInfoCharts)

A8. Data caveats and gaps

• Market cap for ETH and SOL in table: DATA NEEDED. Source suggestion: CoinGecko pages for ETH and SOL on publication date for EUR or USD figures.
• Sharpe, realized vol, cross-asset correlations: DATA NEEDED. Source suggestion: Kaiko, Coin Metrics CM Market Data Feed.

Compliance, methodology, and important notes

• Methodology: We evaluate BTC as a monetary network. We emphasize NVT and MVRV over equity-style multiples. We triangulate on-chain settlement value, ETF net inflows, and issuance to frame a 12-month price target in EUR. Primary data sources include CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Farside Investors, BitInfoCharts, Blockchain.com, bitbo, YCharts, ECB, and official EU pages for regulation. (CoinGecko)
• Timing: Data pulled and computed on 6 Oct 2025 unless otherwise noted; ECB reference rate from 3 Oct 2025. (European Central Bank)
• Definitions:
  • NVT: market cap divided by daily on-chain value settled. Different providers use adjusted series.
  • MVRV: market cap divided by realized capitalization.
  • Active addresses: provider-specific definitions.
• Limitations: On-chain metrics can be gamed or misinterpreted. ETF flow series are revised. EURUSD translation affects EUR targets.
• Conflicts: This document is generated by AI based on public sources and stated assumptions.

Recommendation and target

• Rating: Buy
• 12-month target price: €130,000
• Implied upside: ~22% from €106,410 at publication. Sources and calculations in sections 1, 5, and 6.

Disclosures and disclaimers

This research report has been generated by an AI system using public information believed to be reliable at the time of writing. It may contain errors, omissions, or outdated information and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, crypto-asset, or financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Crypto-assets are highly volatile and can result in total loss. Readers should do their own research and consider their financial situation and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The authoring AI and its operators do not hold positions in the instruments discussed at the time of writing. This report is not produced, approved, or endorsed by any bank, broker, or asset manager. By reading this report you agree that the AI provider and its operators are not liable for any decisions made based on the information herein.

This report was generated by AI and should not be used for investment purposes.