The altii-Gold-Report 2026-04-18

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Key Data Snapshot

Macro Backdrop

The current macro environment presents a positive risk sentiment with broadly positive equity momentum, led by the Nasdaq Composite which posted a 5.54% gain over the past five days. The Euro area yields a mixed backdrop with the AAA 10Y yield at 3.07%, while FX markets show a mixed stance, though the EUR/USD pair strengthened by 0.64% over the last five days to 1.1777. This EUR strength supports the EUR-denominated asset class. Geopolitically, renewed US-Iran talks have eased inflationary pressure, yet the structural shift in reserve management remains a dominant theme.

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis centers on gold transitioning from a traditional monetary metal to national security infrastructure. Following the freeze of Russian reserves, central banks are prioritizing asset sovereignty. France repatriated 129 tonnes of gold from the New York Fed, while Poland added 31 tonnes year-to-date, becoming the most active buyer globally. This structural bid is supported by a weakening dollar dominance [T1][T3], even as emerging markets face currency volatility that has forced some to sell gold reserves to fund energy and defense costs [T2].

Bullish Drivers

Key bullish drivers include the potential restoration of US tariffs by July, which could reignite inflationary expectations and safe-haven demand [T6]. Additionally, the ECB enters the current inflation shock in a strong position, allowing for policy flexibility that supports non-yielding assets [T8]. The structural demand base remains resilient, with over 40 central banks accumulating simultaneously, providing a floor for prices even as short-term flows fluctuate.

Relative Positioning vs Bitcoin and Ethereum

Gold currently trades against a backdrop of high Bitcoin dominance at 57.31%. While the Nasdaq leads equity momentum with a 10.46% one-month gain, gold maintains its role as the ultimate safe haven. In a risk-off scenario, gold is likely to outperform both Bitcoin and equities, whereas in a sustained risk-on environment driven by de-escalation and rate cuts, crypto and equities may reclaim leadership.

Scenario Framework

• Bullish Case: Gold reclaims the 4688.32 EUR ATH if geopolitical tensions flare or tariffs are reinstated.
• Base Case: Gold consolidates between 4200 and 4500 EUR as de-escalation holds but structural demand persists.
• Bearish Case: Gold breaks below 4000 EUR if the USD strengthens sharply or real yields rise due to aggressive central bank tightening.

Valuation Discussion

Valuation is currently compressed relative to the January 2026 ATH of 4688.32 EUR, representing a -12.7% drawdown. However, this discount comes as central bank net purchases dropped to 863 tons in 2025 [T2] and some holders sell to defend currencies. The current price of 4093.05 EUR reflects a balance between this tactical selling and the structural bid from reserve diversification. Given the 39.29% one-year return, the asset remains in a strong uptrend, though volatility has increased since the onset of the Iran conflict.

Risks

The primary risks are twofold. First, a successful resolution to the Iran conflict could lead to a sharp drop in energy prices, easing inflation and removing a key support for gold. Second, emerging market central banks continue to sell gold to defend weakening currencies and fund energy purchases, potentially exacerbating short-term selling pressure. A stronger US dollar would also act as a headwind for EUR-denominated gold.

Appendix

Sources

• S&P 500: A Volatile Ride Ends at Zero Year-to-Date – Investing.com UK [T1]
• Central banks were buying gold at record levels. Here’s why they’re selling now – CNBC [T2]
• S&P 500: A Volatile Ride Ends at Zero Year-to-Date – Investing.com [T3]
• Op-Ed: How gold became national security infrastructure – Bitget [T4]
• Op-Ed: How gold became national security infrastructure – Mining.com [T5]
• Gold price holds gain as renewed push for US-Iran talks eases risks – Mining.com [T6]
• BOJ policy to boost yen could be an option to curb inflation, Japanese minister says – WTVB [T7]
• ECB is good starting position to deal with inflation shock, Schnabel says – KITCO [T8]

This report is AI-generated for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed herein are those of the AI assistant and do not reflect the official positions of any financial institution or entity.

Important Note / Wichtiger Hinweis:

EN: This report may contain AI-assisted analysis or be generated entirely by AI, which processes market data from publicly available sources for which altii accepts no responsibility for its accuracy. We strongly advise against using this report as a basis for investment decisions.

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