The altii-Gold-Report 2026-07-28

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Key Data Snapshot

*Data retrieved 2026-07-28. ATH reached 2026-01-28.

Macro Backdrop

Risk sentiment remains neutral with equities showing divergent regional performance. The DAX leads regional performance with a strong 5-day move of 2.07%, while the Nikkei 225 struggles with a 5-day decline of -5.61% [T7]. This divergence highlights a flight to quality within the DACH region, with DACH equity indicators averaging -0.17% over 5 days versus -2.37% for global peers. The rates backdrop is mixed, with the Euro area AAA 10Y yield at 3.21%, moving 3.9 basis points over the last five days. The Euro area 10Y-2Y spread sits at 43.5 basis points. The FX backdrop is also mixed, with EUR/USD at 1.1402 and EUR/CHF showing the strongest 5-day FX move at 0.10% [T7].

Investment Thesis

The fundamental case for gold rests on the structural shift toward fiscal dominance. Schroders argues we are already in an era where fiscal realities limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise rates aggressively to combat inflation, creating a supportive environment for gold [T4]. Gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries to become the second-largest reserve asset behind the dollar, now accounting for approximately 27% of global reserves compared to 22% for Treasuries [T6]. This shift is driven by central banks recasting gold as a monetary asset to mitigate sanctions, inflation, and credit risk [T1]. The thesis posits that the “Big Reset” is underway quietly through central bank accounting rather than a single revaluation event.

Bullish Drivers

• Central Bank Accumulation: Central banks have bought an average of 1,000 tonnes annually over the past four years, double the pace of the previous decade. A June survey of 76 central banks found 89% expect global holdings to rise over the next 12 months [T1].
• China’s Strategic Buying: China favors lower gold prices to facilitate accumulation. The founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund notes that China is buying every dip, viewing gold as a critical component of the monetary reset [T6].
• Rate Dynamics: A prolonged “Fed on hold” environment could contribute to lower or even negative real rates over time. Historically, this backdrop has been among the most favorable for gold, supporting its role as a portfolio diversifier and hedge [T2].
• Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing conflicts, such as the Iran war, keep inflation expectations elevated and support the demand for safe-haven assets. ING analysts expect prices to average $4,100 in the third quarter and $4,150 in the fourth quarter amid these risks [T7].

Relative Positioning vs Bitcoin and Ethereum

Gold maintains its distinct role as a safe haven compared to crypto assets. During periods of geopolitical stress, money has shifted into energy assets rather than traditional safe havens, with Bitcoin gaining only 0.7% over similar periods [T7]. Furthermore, gold stocks, represented by the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDX), have outperformed the metal itself over the past year, while gold continues to outperform most other major asset classes [T2]. This suggests that gold offers superior liquidity and diversification benefits compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum during risk-off events.

Scenario Framework

• Base Case: The Euro area 10Y yield remains sticky around 3.2%, and the Fed stays on hold. Gold consolidates between 3,500 and 3,800 EUR. ING forecasts prices averaging $4,100-$4,150/oz in Q3 and Q4, implying a potential move toward 4,600 EUR [T7].
• Bull Case: If real rates decline due to fiscal dominance, gold could resume its secular bull run. A move toward the January 2026 ATH of 4,688.32 EUR is plausible if central bank buying accelerates and the dollar weakens [T2][T4].
• Bear Case: A sudden hawkish pivot by the Fed or a spike in real rates could weigh heavily on gold. If the dollar strengthens, XAU/EUR could test support levels near 3,000 EUR, exacerbated by supply shocks from sovereign selling [T7][T8].

Valuation Discussion

Current gold prices appear undervalued relative to the potential for central bank reserve allocation. At $4,200/oz, current gold reserves represent 8.3% of total reserves. Schroders notes that to reach a 30% benchmark, central banks would need to repeat June purchase volumes monthly for the next 33 years, indicating a very long runway for demand [T4]. Additionally, gold stocks offer attractive cash flow and valuations. The MVGDX fell 15.54% in June but remains one of the best-performing asset classes year-to-date, suggesting significant leverage to a potential price recovery [T2].

Risks

• Sovereign Selling: Russia sold a record 44 tons of gold in the first half of 2026 to fund a widening budget deficit. Other emerging markets, such as Pakistan, have sold reserves to fund energy purchases, introducing additional supply into the market [T5][T8].
• Geopolitical Short Squeeze: In a broad market panic, investors often sell whatever they can, including safe-haven assets like gold, to cover margin calls [T7].
• Rate Volatility: The market currently sees only a 3.8% chance of rates falling to 325-350 basis points by the end of next year, with a 28.7% chance of rates staying at 400-425 basis points [T7]. Any deviation from this path could cause significant volatility.

Appendix

Sources

• Central banks double gold-buying – Mining.com [T1]
• Gold’s long-term investment case is strong, and miners offer greatest upside – KITCO [T2]
• Central bank gold demand has ‘very long runway’ as East/West market split returns – KITCO [T4]
• Iran war continues to impact sovereign gold holdings, with Azerbaijan and Pakistan the latest examples – KITCO [T5]
• China is buying every dip and the ‘reset’ is already here, Middelkoop says – KITCO [T6]
• Will a prolonged conflict in the Middle East boost gold? – KITCO [T7]
• Gold SWOT: Both DPM metals and discovery silver shares rose more than 10% last week – KITCO [T8]

This report is AI-generated by GLM 4.7 Flash for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The data presented is based on market information available as of the report date.

Important Note / Wichtiger Hinweis:

EN: This report may have been generated using AI. It processes data from publicly available sources. The content is provided for informational purposes only.DE: Dieser Bericht kann mithilfe von KI erstellt worden sein. Dabei werden Daten aus öffentlich zugänglichen Quellen verarbeitet. Die Inhalte dienen ausschließlich Informationszwecken.

* DE: Die ergänzenden Inhalte können KI-generiert sein. EN: The additional content may be AI-generated.